Burns
3 game NBA Exec Report
Under Knicks/Lakers
Over Sonics/Spurs
Under Raptors/Wizards
NBA Blowout GOM
Rockets
Best Bet
Penn State
NHL Line Value GOM
Tampa Bay Lightning
Larry Ness
NCAA BASKETBALL PICK
Wichita State + over Missouri State
Missouri State routed Wichita State earlier this season, winning by 24 points at home just three weeks ago. Since that win the Bears have gone 1-4 ATS and neither of these former Missouri Valley powers appears to be headed to the NCAA tournament unless a miraculous run through the conference tournament occurs. Missouri State has not been able to find success on the road this season, with an incredibly bad 1-7 S/U record and zero ATS road wins this season. The games have not been close either, losing by 8, 11, 15, and 19 in four conference road games. Wichita State continues to struggle with a 1-8 overall conference record but the Shockers have some reason for hope. All five home losses in the conference have come in close games with final margins of less than ten points. The losses also include close games with the top three teams in the conference while Missouri State has lost on the road to several marginal teams. Despite the horrible record this year, Wichita State is capable of putting a strong game together tonight for the upset.
NBA PICK
Minnesota + over Chicago
The Wolves have battled through the toughest ranked schedule and the league and it shows with just eight wins but Minnesota is starting to gain confidence. The Timberwolves have covered in five consecutive games, winning three games outright with the two losses coming in very tight games that Minnesota probably deserved to win. It has been a dramatic turnaround for Minnesota and there is no reason to expect a halt to the progress against a flat Bulls squad. The Bulls have covered in just four of the last 16 home games and injuries to key players weaken the lineup even further. The Bulls have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league and consistent effort has been hard to find with Chicago. The Wolves are playing with great energy and can keep rolling with another strong performance as an underdog.
Scott Rickenbach
1* (regular play) Ottawa Senators Money Line -145
The Senators are used to enjoying success at Nassau Coliseum. However, they lost their most recent meeting here which came in December. Also, adding more fuel to the Senators fire tonight is that they lost in Ottawa versus the Isanders earlier this month! Needless to say, the Sens are not short on emotion coming into tonight's game and we truly like the circumstances surrounding this game.
While the Senators were struggling prior to the break, they were able to turn things around a bit with a dominating 8-4 win at Tampa Bay just before the All Star Break. That win came last Thursday and the Sens finished off the first half of the season with a convincing victory. They look to start off the second half the same way and, even without Dany Heatley, the Senators proved how powerful their offense can be without a key player on the ice. It is the depth of the Senators that is the key. Their emotional state is much better than that of the Islanders right now. The Isles were hammered at Boston 4 to 1 to wrap up their first half of the season on Thursday. Tonight, the Isles are back at Nassau Coliseum but that may not be much help to them. They have lost four straight games there!
Martin Gerber should be between the pipes for the Senators tonight and he has enjoyed success against the Islanders and success at Nassau Coliseum. The biggest key here is the offensive disparities between these clubs. The Senators have much more firepower than the Islanders possess. The Sens also have the extra hunger of suffering a rare home loss (first in five years) to the Islanders earlier this month. It's payback time and the Senators are looking forward to serving revenge in their opponent's building. That big win the Sens got before the break to stop their slump is just what they needed to be a catalyst to get them off on the right foot to start the second half. We've seen this many times before in the past and we'll see it again tonight.
Play Ottawa on the money line as a regular selection.
TOM STRYKER Comp
San Diego St.
Michael Cannon
10 Dime –
VCU
Take the points with Vcu tonight when they travel to take on George Mason.
This is a rare triple-revenge spot for host George Mason, and while I’ll allow that they are very tough to beat at home, I don’t think they’re going to cover this number.
First off, Patriots forward Will Thomas might end up being the CAA Player of the Year, but he won’t win it for his defensive prowess. Thomas rarely commits a foul, which means he doesn’t play physical enough in the paint.
Since Vcu seems to have George Mason’s number, any easy buckets they score inside will go a long way in keeping them within the number.
Vcu has won and covered the last three meetings, and are on a 10-4 ATS run in this series. The Rams are also on a 9-3-1 ATS roll in their last 13 games overall.
George Mason is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Take the points with Vcu as they stay within the number tonight.
5 Dime –
PISTONS
Take the Pistons as the road chalk tonight over the Pacers.
Detroit has won the last four meetings of this series, including two last month during the Pistons’ season-best 11-game winning streak.
The Pacers are struggling right now, having lost three straight and 13 of 17. Their defense has been virtually non-existent this month, as they are allowing 106.5 ppg in January.
Indiana will be without two of its best players, Jamaal Tinsley and Jermaine O’Neal, who are both out with knee injuries.
Detroit is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 games overall, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five.
Take the Pistons as the road chalk as they grab the win and cover.
ALABAMA
Take Alabama as the road dog tonight when they host Tennessee.
The Crimson Tide showed signs of breaking out of their recent slump with a 97-77 rout of Auburn on Saturday.
The Vols bounced back from their loss at Kentucky with a rout of their own, 85-69 over Georgia.
But Tennessee has had its problems with Alabama over the years, going just 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in the last eight meetings. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six trips to Tuscaloosa.
The Vols are also 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record and 1-5 ATS as a single-digit chalk.
Take the points with Alabama as they battle throughout and keep this game within the number.
I.C. Comp
Tor/WASH under 193
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
NBA
TORONTO +2.5
NY/LA LAKERS OVER 206
CBB
FLORIDA ST +4.5
PricelessPicks
1 Unit on Iowa State -6
Iowa State returns home after lopsided losses at the Kansas schools in the Big 12. We'll take the Clones in this bounce back spot at home as Hilton Magic should be at full throttle. Iowa State is 10-2 at home this season and they have won 8 straight home games. The Buffs come in having lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games. Colorado is 10-21 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting pct. defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. Iowa State is a very strong 30-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1997. The Cyclones' defense is tough as nails at home and that's what will earn them the win and cover tonight.
Dragonsports
3* Play on Bulls - 4.5
3* Play on Knicks + 9.5
Steve Janus
W Michigan -4
BEN BURNS
HOCKEY
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Game: Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game Time: 1/29/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. These teams have faced each other once this season. That game, which was also here at Tampa Bay, saw the Sabres win by a score of 4-3. Its important to note that the Lightning were -150 or -155 favorites in that game. Tonight's price is significantly "cheaper" and I feel that offers us excellent value. Despite a win in their final game before the break, the Sabres remain a dismal 2-12 their last 14 games vs. the moneyline. Not surprisingly, they haven't won back to back games in 2008. They're also still dealing with some key injuries, including forwards Tim Connolly and Maxim Afinogenov. The Lightning closed out the first half with a loss to the Senators, the top team in the conference. However, they'd beaten the Sens a week earlier and have still won three of their last four games. They've struggled in this series and know that this is an excellent opportunity to exact some revenge while the Sabres aren't playing their best and aren't at 100%. In addition to being 4-11 when playing a road game with an over/under line of six or greater, the Sabres are just 3-7 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. I'm backing the revenge-minded home team.
*"Line Value" GOM
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
PENN STATE
Game: Ohio State vs. Penn State
Prediction: Penn State Reason: I'm taking the points with PENN STATE. Without Geary Claxton in the lineup, the Nittany Lions have certainly been struggling lately. However, I feel that has caused this line to become too high. Prior to their recent skid, the Nittany Lions, who easily covered both games against last season's stronger Ohio State team, had won seven straight games. Despite getting pounded by Purdue last time here, they're still 8-3 at home for the season. Conversely, the Buckeyes have lost three straight on the road. Granted, those losses all came vs. tougher opponents. All the same, I don't feel they should be laying this many points on the road. The Nittany Lions know that they won't be getting Claxton back and know that it's time to stop hanging their heads about his loss. As coach Ed DeChellis said: "...we're the ones that have to get us out. It's just not going to happen unless we work hard." Playing in front of a national TV audience and having matched their lowest point total in the 12-year history of the Bryce Jordan Center in their last game here, I expect an extremely motivated effort from the Nittany Lions this evening. They lost by only two points, as 11.5 point underdogs, vs. the Buckeyes here last season. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again, improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 series meetings. *Best Bet
NBA
UNDER Knicks/Lakers
Game: New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Lakers and Knicks to finish UNDER the number. These teams combined for just 185 points (95-90 Lakers) when they faced each other at New York on 12/23. That game had an over/under line of 203.5 or 204. Looking back at the last 20 series meetings and we find that NONE of them had an over/under line which was greater than 205 points. I feel that tonight's higher number is offering us solid value. The Knicks have seen three of their last four games stay below the total, including each of their last two. Note that the lone one of those games which did finish above the numbe (Boston on 1/21) still finished with just 202 points. Their most recent game was relatively high-scoring, (106-104 loss) however, that came against the up-tempo Warriors, so the total was much higher and the game still fell comfortably beneath the number. The Lakers have also been profitable for "under" bettors recently, as they've seen four of their last five games finish beneath the total. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair again this evening with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number and the UNDER improving to 13-6 when the Knicks were coming off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. OVER Sonics/Spurs
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Seattle SuperSonics
Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Spurs and Sonics to finish OVER the total. The Spurs finished below the number yet again last night, continuing their string of "unders." However, one spot which they haven't been staying below the number is when they play the second of back to back games. In fact, they've seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times they played in that situation with those five games averaging a whopping 214 points each. Tonight should be a good spot to put up some big points as the defending champs will be taking on the defensively-challenged Sonics, who allow an average of 105 per game. Note that the Spurs have seen the OVER go 45-35-4 the last 84 times they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. This is a very low over/under number for a Sonics' home game. Their games here have averaged more than 202 points and they typically have over/under lines somewhere in that range. In fact, they've only played two home games with a total ranging from 190-194.5 this season. Both those games finished above the number bringing the OVER to 9-3 the last dozen times the Sonics played a home game with a total in that range. The Sonics, who are smack dab in the middle of a 7-game homestand, have also seen the OVER go 15-9 the past few seasons after having played three or more consecutive road games. This season's lone meeting, which came here in late November, had an over/under line of 199 and finished with 216 points. That brought the OVER to 3-0 the last three series meetings with each of those games producing a minimum of 199 points. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair this evening. UNDER Raptors/Wizards
Game: Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Raptors and Wizards to finish UNDER the number. These teams, who will face each other again tomorrow night, have played some high-scoring games against each other in 2007. However, with both Arenas and Ford still out due to injury, I'm expecting a defensive affair this evening. The Wizards have seen the UNDER go 8-5 the last 13 times that they played the front-end of back to back games, most recently combining with the Celtics for just 171 when playing in that situation. The last time that the Raptors played the front end of back to back games, they combined with Atlanta for a mere 167 points. That brought the UNDER to 2-1 the last three times that they played the front-end of back to back games. Those three games averaged less than 172 points and none produced more than 192. Thanks to the game reaching overtime, the Wizards allowed the Bucks to score 105 points last time out. Note that their most recent two home games both stayed below the number and that they've seen the UNDER go 7-3 this season after having allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. For the season, they've seen the UNDER go 14-8 at home, including 3-1 as a home favorite of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Raptors, who haven't played since defeating the Bucks 106-75 on 1/25, have seen the UNDER go 8-3 after scoring 105 or more points and 10-3 after a double-digit win. Look for those numbers to improve this evening. HOUSTON
Game: Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
PM Prediction: Houston Rockets Reason: I'm laying the points with HOUSTON. In addition to playing with "double-revenge" the Rockets will be looking to bounce back from an upset loss vs. Utah here on Sunday. Note that the Rockets, who were slight favorites in that game, are a profitable 26-16 ATS the past few seasons when coming off a SU loss when listed as a favorite. Prior to the loss vs. the Jazz, the Rockets had won four straight games and nine of their past 11. The Warriors, who were substantial favorites in each of their last two games, won each of them by only two points. Those two pointspread losses dropped them to 4-9 ATS in 2008. They're now an ugly 13-26 ATS in the month of January the past three seasons. Its also worth noting that the Warriors are just 11-20 ATS the last 31 times that they were coming off a game in which they scored 105 or more points. Despite this season's earlier losses, the Rockets have still won 23 or their past 31 games vs. teams which allow 99 or more points during the second half of the season and 48 of 75 vs. such "defensively-challenged" teams overall. With or without Yao Ming in the lineup, I expect the highly motivated and revenge-minded Rockets to record a convincing victory. *Blowout GOM
Comps
Marc Lawrence
Indiana Pacers +7.5
Matty O'Shea
Washington Wizards -2
JWhip
Spurs/Sonics UNDER 194
Ben Burns
Indiana Pacers +7.5
Mel Stewart
San Antonio Spurs -7
JB
Chicago Bulls -4.5
Ted Sevransky
Evansville +14.5
Southern Illinois is not a team built to win games by big margins. The Salukis last win by more than 13 points came back on December 11th. They are most assuredly an offensively challenged ballclub, shooting at a 42% clip for the season, averaging only 62 points per game, making it very difficult to run up margins. Nor are the Salukis a particularly good rebounding team – they don’t get many easy second chance opportunities. Southern Illinois beat Evansville by 13 when they met two weeks ago, but it took a special effort for the Salukis to win by that margin: 59% shooting for the game; 53% shooting from three point land; 74% shooting from the free throw line. Even at home, it’s hard to picture this poor shooting Southern Illinois squad having that same sort of success tonight.
Evansville went through a very ugly stretch of play here in January, punctuated by ugly road losses at Indiana State by 30, at Creighton by 18, and at Northern Iowa by 13. But we’ve also seen spread covering losses by 1 at Bradley and by 8 at Illinois State during this span, giving us reason to suspect that the Purple Aces are capable of hanging around here. Let’s not forget that Evansville was competitive on this floor against the Salukis last year, losing by only seven, and they beat Southern Illinois outright at home! And Evansville is coming off a confidence inspiring blowout win over Missouri State this past weekend, giving them some positive momentum heading into this game now that their eight game losing streak has been snapped. We don’t need an outright victory to cash this ticket – not even close – giving us plenty of wiggle room should we need it.
Take Evansville.
Alex Smart
San Diego State -7.0
San Diego State enter into this tilt against their hosts Colorado State Rams off two consecutive hard fought losses to top tier teams, UNLV and BYU. With that said, I expect this talented Aztecs team to be very motivated to get back in the win column, against a Rams team that is in complete disarray, as is evident by losing 6 straight and 10 of their L/11 overall. To put it bluntly, compared to their last two opponents, this contest will seem like a walk in the park for the Aztecs. Final notes & Key Trends: Aztecs are 7-1-ATS in the last 8 meetings
Projected score: San Diego State 72 Colorado State 60
LT Profits
Samford @ Murray State UN 120.5
This game between the Samford Bulldogs and the Murray State Racers features two stark contrasts in styles.
The Under is an amazing 13-3 in all Samford games this season, with a very low average combined total scored in their games of just 116.6 points. The Bulldogs average just 54.9 points offensively, but their shooting percentage of 44.6 percent is not the worst in the world, which means that their low output is a direct result of the deliberate style. Furthermore, their road games have been even lower scoring, with an average combined total score of 114.9 points per contest.
Now Murray State plays much more up-tempo, as their games are averaging 143.0 points. However, we could see them getting frustrated by Samford’s style, even in their own building. At least that has been the case in the past, as the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools here in Murray State have averaged just a combined 115.2 points.
We look for history to repeat tonight.
CBB Free Pick: Samford, Murray State Under 120.5
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* Wake Forest
2. 50,000* George Mason
3. 50,000* Warriors
SportsAction365
100* Ohio -10.5
75* VCU +4
75* Virginia Tech -3.5
75* San Diego St -7.5
50* Houston -3.5
50* LA Lakers -9.5
Gold Medal Club
NBA
Suns
Spurs
Laker's
CBB
George Mason
Austin Peay
Penn State
NHL
Buffalo
Carolina
Sharks
Wunderdog Comp
Game: Missouri State at Wichita State
Pick: Wichita State -1
Wichita State has covered nine of the last ten games between these two teams here at home. They have lost six in a row and eight of nine but they are favored here for a reason. This is their best chance to nail a win. Missouri State is off a bitter loss to Evansville. The Bears lost by 19 points in a game they were supposed to win. We think they suffer a hangover of sorts here. They are 1-9 on the road this season and 0-7 ATS. The offenses here are pretty even (Bears scoring 61.9 per game on the road and Shockers getting 61.5 at home). But, the defensive difference is huge as Wichita averages 59.4 ppg allowed at home while Missouri State gives up 71.3 per game on the road - a 12 point difference. If there's one thing Wichita State does well, it's rebound. And, the Bears are 1-8 ATS this season vs. good rebounding teams (those that outrebound opponents by 4+ per game). This line should be MUCH higher and we like the home team as a result.