Larry Ness
Alabama -1 vs Auburn
No. 12 LSU is the lone SEC team in the latest AP top-25 and the West division has earned very little respect this year. However, Auburn has quietly moved into possible at-large NCAA consideration, as the Tigers have won SIX of their last 7 games,(including an impressive road win at Mississippi State last Saturday). The Tigers have excellent depth in the backcourt with Reed (13.2), Waller (12.7), Barrett (9.1), Sullivan (7.3) and Robertson (6.0-4.1-3.1). The frontcourt is kind of 'light,' as only the 6-7 Barber (12.7-9.3) and the 6-6 Hargrove (8.2-5.5) are worth mentioning. However, the Tigers are now 19-10 overall and at 17-5 ATS, are one of the nation's top pointspread teams. It's been a rough year for Alabama, first losing PG Steele 912.9-3.7 APG) after 15 games and then longtime head coach Gottfried after 19 games. The Tide have a much deeper frontcourt than Auburn, as three 6-9 players, freshman Green (10.0-7.4), Knox (5.9-5.2) and Coleman (3.8-3.8) also have the disappointing 6-7 Jemison (3.3-3.4) to contribute once in a while. Steele's loss at PG was HUGE, but Gee (14.9-7.3), Hillman (13.4) and Torrance (9.2) are a pretty solid group. 'Bama has relocated its long-range shooting 'eye' as of late, making 41.3 percent on three-pointers under interim head coach Philip Pearson, after connecting on just 29.3 percent over its first 19 games (under Gottfried). Auburn wasn't the only team to post a HUGE win on the road last Saturday, as the Tide won 90-69 at Ole Miss (Rebels had been 13-2 at home), the team's third straight win. Alabama's averaged an impressive 88.3 PPG in its modest three-game winning streak and the Tide would like nothing more than to burst the bubble of the hated Tigers. Alabama is 13-4 SU at home this year (through all its troubles), and I see them handily avenging an 85-71 loss at Beard-Eaves Coliseum back on Jan 17. The home team has won and covered handily in each of the last three meetings in this rivalry and the Tide make it four straight 'covers' for the home team, tonight.
Charlies Sports - free pick
nba. Indiana-3 @ Sacramento. The Indiana Pacers sometimes slip up against inferior competition, especially on the road. If they want to make a run at a playoff spot, they can’t afford any more losses to teams such as the Sacramento Kings.Coming off another big win at Conseco Fieldhouse, the Pacers look to avoid a letdown on the road when they face the NBA-worst Kings tonight, pacers will cover-3 .
WUNDERDOG
Edmonton at Nashville
Pick: UNDER 5.5 -130
Nashville is 21-11 to the UNDER at home this season. They have held opponents to 2.4 goals per game here and tonight they get a team that is struggling offensively. Edmonton put up five on Tampa Bay last week but outside of that, they have averaged just 2.1 goals per game in their last seven. Nashville scored eight goals last game against Detroit and those kind of performances are often followed by low outputs. Over the past three seasons, the Predators are 23-10 UNDER in the second half of the season vs. teams that allow 3+ goals per game. Following a win by 2+ goals this season, they are 13-2 UNDER. I like this one to come in UNDER the total.
Chicago at Charlotte
Pick: Chicago +2
The Bulls came back from 17 down with under six minutes to beat the Houston Rockets last game. That kind of performance provides confidence and inspires a team. Charlotte is back home after a long road trip and that isn't usually a good thing as teams can often fall flat in that situation late in the season. They won three straight but against Scramento, Golden State and the Clippers. Not really awe-inspiring. I like the Bulls to ride their momentum from last game here.
JACK JONES
Weber State -3.5 over Montana State
I'll go with Weber State tonight who brings in a 8-4 record on the road and a 20-8 mark overall. Montana State is just 12-15 on the year and 6-9 in the conference, compared to Weber's 14-1 mark in Big Sky play. I know the Wildcats aren't playing for anything, having already locked up the regular season title, but no team wants to head into the conference tournament on a losing note. This team is coming off 11 straight wins and 14 out of thier last 15, including a 38 point stomping of Sacramento State last time out. The Bobcats on the other hand are coming off a 27 point loss to Northern Colorado. Weber State lost to Montana State back in the middle of January, so don't you think this team is going to be out for revenge tonight?
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee State +11.5 over MURRAY STATE
The Tigers are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog and 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Murray St.., while the Racers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, plus the Road team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Tennessee state Tigers had a decent year in the OVC as they went 9-9 and were outscored by just 3.5 ppg in those games. The also went 4-5 in their OVC road games and have been outscored by just 3.7 ppg in those games. The Tigers do play some poor defense as they are 333rd in points allowed, but their offense has been what keeps them in games as they have averaged 72.8 ppg overall (92nd) and they are 82nd in FG% (45.8%). That offense has been even better during their current 6 game win streak as they have averaged 82.1 ppg and shot 51.8% from the floor in the 6 games. The Racers are a solid defensive squad as they allow just 63.2 ppg overall and 59.5 ppg at home, but their offense has put up just 67.4 ppg overall and 69.3 ppg at home. That average offense has prevented them from a lot of blowout wins as they have outscored their OVC opponents by just 7.8 ppg, including outscoring their OVC foes by just 8.8 ppg on their home floor. When these teams met in early January here the Tigers were very much a struggling bunch and the Racers still beat them by just 4 points. Now the Tigers come in red hot as they have won 6 in a row and I see that powerful offense being able to put up enogh points to stay within the number here. Murray State by no more than 8 points here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
AUSTIN PEAY -10.5 over Eastern Illinois
The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, while the Governors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss, plus the Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Not sure what I'm missing here, but I think this line is off a bit. These two teams met just last week on this same floor and Austin Peay ws installed as an 8.5 point favorite and they won the game by 15. The Governors have taken the last 8 in this series, by an average of 13.3 ppg and they have won the last 3 here by an average of 19.7 ppg. The Panthers are a team that struggles on the road and they come in having lost their last 6 OVC road games and they lost each game by at least 12 points.EIU's road woes can be attributed to an offense that has put up just 61.9 ppg away from home, including an average of just 53.7 ppg in their last 7 road games.Offense has not been a problem for the Governors as they have averaged 75.8 ppg overall, including 76.2 ppg at home and a whopping 79.3 ppg in OVC play. The Panthers are 8-10 in league play and have been outscored by just 2.7 ppg in those games, but in their 10 losses they have been outscored by 13.2 ppg. I had Austin Peay when in the last matchup and stated in that writeup that their is no way the Panthers can score enough points to keep this one close. Well nothing has changed and I'm still wondering what I'm missing as this line should be a bout 4 points higher, especially with the way the Governors have dominated this series and the way that the Panthers have struggled on the road down the stretch. Austin Peat by 15+ here.
(Power Angle Play)
OKLAHOMA STATE -5 over Kansas State
The Wildcats are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games, while the Cowboys are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12. The Widcats do come in with an 8-6 record in the Big 12, but they are just 2-2 in their last 4 conference games, winning vs Nebraska by 5 and ISU by 4, while being clobbered by Missouri (21) and losing at home to Kansas by 11. The Cats really haven't played well down the stretch, while the Cowboys have. OSU comes in on a 5 game win streak and have outscored their opponents by 13.8 ppg during that stretch. The Cowboys have also been very strong at home where they are 13-2 overall, outscoring their opponents by 16.7 ppg, The Wildcats offense has had problems on the road this year as they are averaging just 68 ppg and shooting 39.7% away from home on the year. Their defense has been tough this year as they have allowed just 66.2 ppg overall, but on the road that number jumps to 72.2 ppg. OSU has one of the best offenses in the nation as they have averaged 82.5 ppg on the year (4th in nation) and are 64th in FG% (46.2%). The Cowboys have also averaged 87.3 ppg at home. The Cowboys have been playing really well right now to think that they can't win this one by more than 5 points, plus they have revenge on their minds for the 21 point loss they suffered at the hands of the Wildcats last year. Cowboys by 10+ here.
POWER ANGLE For This Play-- Since 1997 the Wildcats are just 1-14 ATS when playing on Tuesday nights. KSU has been outscored by 17 ppg in this situation.
2 UNIT PLAYS
WISC-MILWAUKEE -7.5 over Loyola-Chic
The Ramblers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, while the Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Panthers have taken both meetings this year by 14 points and I see the same thing happening here. Loyola scores just 59.7 ppg on the road, while the Panthers allow just 66 ppg at home. Loyola has been outscored by 10.4 ppg on the road and they should lose this one by double digits also.
1 UNIT PLAY
Wake Forest/ Maryland Under 151