Under like Thunder
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
“When in doubt, bet the under!”
A phrase often heard at the sportsbooks this NBA season.
If you bet pro hoops on a daily basis and you like to bet totals, we hope you’ve been riding the ‘under’ express. Through three weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has cashed in 60 percent of the games and the way the schedule is set up, it’s hard to see a quick fix but the oddsmakers are certainly trying to balance the numbers.
With close to 200 games being played already, we’ve only seen 20 totals listed at 200 or higher. And in those games, the ‘under’ has gone 13-6-1 (65%).
Is the offense that bad or the defense that good?
In the 2010-11 campaign, 11 teams averaged 100 points or more. This season, we have five with Miami (106.4) and Denver (103.6 PPG) leading the charge.
Defensively, 16 clubs gave up an average of 100 PPG last season. This year, we have two with Sacramento (102.2) and Charlotte (101.9 PPG) proving to be the weakest units so far. The best defensive club last season was Boston, who held teams to 91.1 PPG.
This year, four teams are holding opponents under the 90-point barrier this year with Doug Collins’ 76ers (85.5 PPG) showing their grit early.
Looking at the pace, we haven’t seen much change in the tempo. More than half of the teams are averaging 80 shots or more per game, which is just about the league average.
So what's the reason?
“The shooting has never looked more erratic. There isn’t any synergy amongst the majority of teams and it's showing up on the scoreboard,” said VegasInsider.com handicapper Paul Bovi.
Numbers don’t lie and Bovi is 100 percent correct. Ten teams are shooting 45 percent or better from the field this season, compared to 22 teams eclipsing that number in the 2010-11 season.
Bovi added, “The lockout not only shortened the season, but it limited the personnel moves and most importantly the practice time. The limited days off between games don’t give teams the ability to create any chemistry, especially on offense.”
“Plus, most of the coaches in the league now are defensive-minded and if you’re unaware of the new changes, you can get yourself into trouble at the betting counter. Look at Golden State and its new coach Mark Jackson. They actually play defense now and the days of seeing totals at 220 and above won’t be happening anytime soon.”
To put things in perspective, the Warriors have had two totals this season with numbers above 200 and they both went ‘under.’ Last season, Golden State saw 80 of its 82 games listed at 200 or above.
Times are definitely changing, at least for this shortened season.
‘Under’ Teams to Watch
Washington (9-1): I’m probably being nice, but the Wizards are horrible. They can’t shoot (39.7%) which means they can’t score (83.6 PPG). Washington is one of two teams (Detroit) not to put up 100 points or more in a game this season. Flip Saunders’ team scored 64 points in Wednesday’s loss to Chicago. On Friday, the team heads to Philadelphia and the total opened at 185.5 at one major offshore shop before quickly dropping to 183.
Minnesota (7-2): The Timberwolves have showed some punch on offense but they’ve been a different team on the road. They’ve only played three games outside of Minnesota and the ‘under’ is 2-0-1 in those contests. Friday’s matchup at New Orleans has a total hovering around 182 points. The Hornets have seen the ‘under’ connect in 70 percent (7-3) of their games, which includes a current four-game run.
Phoenix (6-2): Similar to the Warriors, the Suns used to be a high-flying team but the talent and tempo have both been tempered in the desert. Phoenix is only averaging 81 shots a game and the 3-point shooting (31%) is anything but good. It’s been so bad that center Marcin Gortat (12.7 PPG) is the team’s high scorer. Surprisingly, Steve Nash is still averaging 9.6 assists per game. Despite those facts, oddsmakers still have a 197-point total for Friday’s matchup against New Jersey, who’s had major issues on offense (89.6 PPG) this season. Make a note that the Nets have given up 101, 106 and 123 points in their last three contests.
L.A. Lakers (9-3): The addition of head coach Mike Brown is starting to pay dividends for the Lakers. Los Angeles is holding opponents to 89.4 PPG in its first 12 games and only allowed two teams to bust the century mark. Offensively, L.A. has slowed it down with an average of 79.3 shots per game and it’s translated into a 75 percent mark to the ‘under.’ Coincidentally, Brown will square off against his former team, Cleveland, on Friday. The total is hovering between 187 and 188 points.
Toronto (8-3): In past seasons, Toronto was geared more toward ‘over’ wagers but the team has taken on a different role now. The Raptors are averaging 76 shots per game, which is the second lowest in the league behind Boston (72). On Friday, the club will welcome Indiana, who has watched its last four games go ‘under.’