Under-the-Radar Squads
By Bruce Marshall
We can remember the days when the gap between the end of the World Series and the start of the college basketball season would last almost two months. Nowadays, we don’t even get two weeks between their respective campaigns. And, hard as it is to believe, we begin covering college hoops action in this issue, with a limited slate of games, before the slate increases exponentially for our next issue on November 11.
With over 200 college teams to follow, it’s important to identify at least a few sides that might be flying under the radar, especially in the early stages of the campaign. Of course, it’s imperative to make adjustments based upon performance as the season progresses. But in the first portion of the campaign, we’re relying a lot upon our scouts and other sources, plus our own intuitions honed from having gone through this exercise countless times, to seek a handful of teams (and not necessarily the Dukes and Kentuckys) to keep an eye on as the campaign commences. Following is the first glance at a handful of those sorts of squads we intend to watch closely this season; stay tuned for other upcoming "under the radar" alerts.
Clemson...While everyone in the ACC has an eye on Duke, we might suggest paying some attention to that orange-clad bunch from South Carolina. We’ve seen what HC Brad Brownell can do with modest material, recalling his NCAA teams from NC-Wilmington and Wright State that annually punched above their weight. Now, Brownell (who got a close look at ACC hoops from his days at Wilmington) has some real talent at his disposal in his new gig at Littlejohn Coliseum, as he inherits a Clemson program that won at least 20 games four years running under Oliver Purnell (who departed for DePaul). We suspect the Tigers might be a bit undervalued thanks to the usual ACC logjam of contenders, not to mention coping with the graduation of do-everything F Trevor Booker. But there is plenty of experience in a veteran backcourt led by 6'2 Demontez Stith. And rugged 6'8 sr. C Jerai Grant is a chip off the block, the son of former star Horace Grant and nephew of Harvey Grant. Jerai’s ability to defend in the post and act as an intimidator in the key adds a valuable component at the stop end, although Brownell will be looking to ballyhooed 6'9 Milton Jennings to begin living up to some of his press clippings after a very so-so frosh debut last season. The adjustment to "Brownell Ball" shouldn’t be too hard for the Tigers, who were similarly schooled in emphasizing defense and sharing the ball on offense under Purnell.
Georgia... SEC insiders wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bulldogs make it to the Big Dance for the first time since 2008. Georgia’s surprising impact under new HC Mark Fox (from Nevada) a year ago wasn’t measured as much in the overall 14-17 mark, but rather in the quality of many of those victories. During a midseason stretch that extended into early February, the Dawgs beat Illinois and three ranked teams (Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt), with near-misses against No. 21 Ole Miss, eventual SEC West champ Mississippi State, and South Carolina. The decision of F Trey Tompkins to pull his name from last June’s NBA Draft makes sure that Fox again will have one of the most-unique threats in the SEC at his disposal, as the 6'10 jr. has plenty of "game," with the ability to go inside (note the 17 rebounds he gobbled in a game last season vs. Bama) or outside (37.7% from tripleville). Moreover, Fox landed one of the region’s top recruits in 6'9 frosh Marcus Thornton, last year’s "Mr. Basketball" in Georgia and originally slated to attend Clemson before de-committing when HC Oliver Purnell moved to DePaul. Fox won a brief but furious recruiting war for Thornton, who led Westlake High to the state AAAAA championship. Georgia has as much size as any team in the SEC, while highlight-reel 6'4 swingman Travis Leslie has reportedly improved his 3-point stroke to complement his ability to slash toward the hoop. As long as 5'11 jr. Dustin Ware can handle PG duties, Georgia rates as one of the intriguing darkhorses of the campaign, with the potential to do real damage in march if all of the pieces (especially frosh Thornton) come together.
Lipscomb... Looking for a real sleeper team? Try Lipscomb, which has usually played second-fiddle to Nashville neighbor Belmont, but this year it’s the Bisons who appear to be the team to beat in the better-than-advertised Atlantic Sun. Seven of the top eight scorers from a year ago return for HC Scott Sanderson, whose veteran team is approaching the season in NCAA-or-bust mode. Bullish 6'8 sr. PF Adnan Hodzic (22.7 ppg LY) pulled his name from the NBA Draft in order to return for a last hurrah at Allen Arena, with sr. PG Josh Slater (17.1 ppg LY) the other half of Lipscomb’s deadly 1-2, inside-outside punch. In addition, 6-7 sr. stopper Brandon Brown gives the Bisons good length on the perimeter and a defensive answer to most opponents’ top scoring threats, while the Lipscomb bench is deep and experienced. The Bisons will likely have pointspreads posted in several "added" games in pre-conference play vs. the likes of North Carolina, Baylor, Alabama, and Memphis, all of which will have to be on alert. Don’t be surprised if we’re talking about Lipscomb again in March.
Penn State... Last season was a letdown for the Nittany Lions after winning the NIT with many of the same components the previous year. But the margin between success and failure in a rugged league such as the Big Ten can be very slight; after winning 12 of 14 games decided by 5 points or fewer in 2008-09, Penn State reversed that mark to 2-12 in close decisions a year ago. And subsequent transfers of a couple of key components (including starting shooting G Chris Babb) have moved the Nittany Lions further from the spotlight entering 2010-11. But the return of star PG Talor Battle for his senior season should prove invaluable, especially running the offense on the hostile Big Ten trail. The core of the team is mostly seniors, as C Andrew Jones, swingman David Jackson, and F Jeff Brooks, along with Battle, have logged a collective 301 starts entering their senior campaigns. It’s hoped that newcomers such as touted PG Taran Buie (Battle’s half brother who can provide a bit of relief for his sibling) and athletic wings Tre Bowman and Jonathan Graham can provide HC Ed DeChellis with the sort of spark off the bench that was missing for much of last season.
Saint Louis... No one was expecting much from Rick Majerus’ Billikens last season when entering the campaign with a frosh and soph-dominated roster. But Majerus mixed and matched the mostly-young components expertly, and along with the trademark Majerus defense, the Bills evolved into a formidable outfit and reached the postseason, advancing all of the way to the CBI Finals before bowing to Virginia Commonwealth. Now SLU has a veteran look with all five starters returning, although the Bills will have to prove they are beyond the frequent blackouts experienced on the attack end where their offense often disappeared, such as in the A-10 Tourney quarterfinals vs. Rhode Island when held to just 47 points, and a regular-season game vs. Richmond when the Spiders limited the Bills to only 36. Having 6'8 soph Aussie F Cody Ellis available from the outset (he wasn’t eligible the first 14 games a year ago) should prove a plus, but more consistency from Ellis and 6-9 jr. F Willie Reed (who blew very hot-and-cold last year) would nonetheless be welcomed by Majerus. As would more consistency from jr. PG Kwamain Mitchell, an explosive scoring threat (team-best 15.9 ppg) but whose score-first mindset might not be ideally suited to effective PG work. And that’s important, because Mitchell is the main supply line to the frontcourt, which needs more reliable service to flourish. Still, with everybody on hand from a year ago, SLU should be in the usual scrum of A-10 entries competing for postseason berths, and could emerge as a possible sleeper for a Big Dance at-large berth.
Texas Tech... There’s no guarantee HC Pat Knight, rumored to be on thin ice, will last beyond this season in Lubbock, hence the sense of urgency attached to 2010-11 for his Red Raiders. But a breakthrough might be imminent with an established senior core featuring explosive 6'6 swingman Mike Singletary (15 ppg), PG John Roberson (14.5 ppg), and 6'7 rebound/defense ace D’walyn Roberts, who battled ankle injuries for much of last season. Tech was a bit Jekyll-and-Hide a year ago, winning nine straight out of the gate to break into the Top 25 before falling apart in Big XII play when losing 12 of 16 games. Given a late reprieve with an NIT bid, however, the Red Raiders responded and reached the third round, effectively ending the career of Seton Hall HC Bobby Gonzalez along the way. It’s hoped that beefy 6'9 juco Paul Cooper can add more presence and rebound power in the paint, elements that were both lacking a year ago from 6'10 Robert Lewandowski, who endured a sophomore slump after mostly-encouraging work as a frosh. Should big Robert finally live up to the potential he flashed in his debut two years ago, and the bulky Cooper provide an intimidation factor, the Red Raiders could finally be a complete team. And perhaps enough to keep Pat Knight (33-35 in two-and-a-half previous seasons on the job) in the saddle and papa Bob happy as well.
UC Davis... We’ve written on these pages about the sad decline of Big West basketball, which can thank the NCAA Tourney expansion to 68 teams for removing any chance that the conference winner might be sentenced to the now-eliminated play-in game between seeds 64 and 65 (now, there’s will be three extra at-large teams added to the mix, with the final at-large teams now participating in four play-in games). Another indicator of where Big West hoops has fallen is the fact that scouts tell us the league is probably without any NBA prospects save perhaps UC Davis’ hybrid 6-7 sr. PG Mark Payne. Keeping Payne healthy gives the Aggies by far the league’s most-versatile threat, too big for smaller guards and too quick for most frontliners, with the ability to post up or beat defenders off the dribble. Payne has even forced some UCD foes into gimmick defenses designed to cope with his skills. The Ags, however, have a few other interesting pieces including 6'8 Joe Harden and 6'5 Cal transfer Eddie Miller, who will likely become a much-needed defensive ace for HC Gary Stewart. UCD causes opponents to make adjustments, as the Ags’ motion offense technically designates everyone as a guard and does not include a true post player, though Payne and Harden in particular can both operate effectively on the blocks if needed. Regional sources believe UCD might finally be ready to make a serious move in conference play and cause some trouble vs. a group of higher-profile pre-league foes that includes Cal and UCLA.
Vanderbilt... While most SEC observers by habit keep their eyes poised on Lexington, maybe it’s the Dores they ought to be watching. Although on the surface it would seem that Vandy might regress now minus 6'11 Aussie C A.J. Ogilvy, SEC insiders believe the Dores might be the team to beat in the East, especially if 6'11 C Festus Ezeli finally experiences a breakout campaign (scouts were impressed that Ezeli confidently hit jump shots and free throws, both beyond big Festus in recent campaigns, in Wednesday’s exhibition win over Alabama-Huntsville). Along with another junior, 6'9 Steve Tchiengang, Vandy could have a ferocious defensive presence in the paint. Whether the Dores can advance to their third Sweet Sixteen for HC Kevin Stallings since 2004 probably relies upon developing another consistent perimeter threat to go along with 6'4 soph sharpshooter John Jenkins, who canned 48.3% of his triples last year; 6'7 junior Jeffery Taylor, an effective slasher and 2nd team All-SEC pick last year, reportedly improved his shooting stroke over the summer. It would also help if jr. combo G Brad Tinsley, now back at the point after playing at the two position last year when Jermaine Beal manned the PG spot, rediscovers the shooting touch he lost a year ago, when hitting just 29.5% of his 3s after a much better 41.9% beyond the arc as a frosh. A newcomer to watch is quicksilver frosh G Kyle Fuller, who will offer a nice change-of-pace at the outset but who could possibly bump Tinsley out of the starting lineup at some point during the campaign.
Under-the-Radar Squads, Part II
By Bruce Marshall
Picking up where we left off last week, we'll list some more "under the radar" teams to watch as the 2010-11 college hoops campaign commences.
Before we get to them, however, a couple of notes and corrections from last week's issue. The "new" 68-team NCAA Tournament has added three at-large teams to the mix, and added games to the pre-sub-regional slate. They'll all be contested in the newly-named "NCAA First Four" at Dayton on March 15 & 16. The bottom four at-large teams will be grouped, winners advancing as No. 12 seeds in two of the sub-regionals, while the four lowest-seeded conference winners will also be pitted against one another for a pair of No. 16 sub-regional seeds. These extra "play-in" games actually makes it more possible that a downgraded loop will have its champ pulled into the "play-in" mix before sub-regional action commences on March 17. Leagues such as the Big West have been forewarned.
Following are the next group of our "under the radar" teams to watch. We're including an updated report on Rick Majerus' Saint Louis Billikens, accounting for recent team suspensions that were subsequently updated on our website. Next week, we'll take a look at select mid-majors to watch as the 2010-11 campaign swings into gear.
Colorado...Everyone is back from a last year's Buffs, save HC Jeff Bzdelik, who took his Princeton-hybrid, back-cuts-and-tricky-screens-offense to Wake Forest. In his place is Tad Boyle, who recently put Northern Colorado on the map (the Bears made it into the College Insider.com Tourney last spring) and will go about things a lot differently than Bzdelik. Instead of forging an identity with a quirky offense (one that didn't work all of the time anyway), Boyle's CU will focus on defense and rebounds, elements sorely missing as the Buffs have stayed under .500 the past four years. Improving work on the boards (last year's -7.5 rebound margin, which fell to an even worse -11.4 rpg in conference play, proved hard to overcome) will be task number one for Boyle, who will be hoping that a pair of true frosh, 7-foot Ben Mills and 6'7 Andre Roberson, can make an immediate impact. CU, however, will continue to hang its hat on the dynamic G combo of 6'5 sr. Cory Higgins (18.9 ppg) and 6'6 soph Alec Burks (17.1 ppg and last year's Big XII Frosh of the Year). Another key will be for a reliable third scoring option to emerge; perhaps 6'7 sr. Marcus Relphorde can fill that role, although he is not as comfortable working with his back to the bucket on the blocks, a place where CU could use a bit more presence on the attack end. It will also be interesting to see if once-touted PG Shannon Sharpe, who blew out his knee prior to last season, has recovered sufficiently to wrest the PG job away from the more-pedestrian Aussie Nate Tomlinson. Still, Burks (an athletic wing) and Higgins (a traditional shooting guard) are a dynamic 1-2 combination that will at least make CU a difficult out in its last trip around the Big XII oval.
Northwestern... Big Ten sources are cautiously optimistic about the Wildcats, still without a Big Dance berth in their history, but getting closer, evidenced by last year's NIT bid. The summer departure of three-year starting F Kevin Coble, who was a liability on the boards and defensive end, isn't expected to hurt too much, especially since HC Bill Carmody believes he finally has enough athleticism on his roster to employ more man-to-man defense, as opposed to the matchup zones and 1-3-1 traps that camouflaged his lineup's lack of quicks in past seasons. To that end, touted 6'5 frosh G JerShon Cobb, the metro Atlanta player of the year, could make an immediate impact as perhaps the Cats' most athletic recruit in recent memory. He'll join a lineup that was the highest scoring in conference action a year ago and returns its top three scorers, F John Shurna (18.2 ppg), G Michael Thompson (14.2 ppg), and swingman Drew Crawford (10.0 ppg), all back in the fold. A summer exhibition tour of Italy, NU's first such excursion in over a decade, provided Carmody with an extra couple of weeks of practice time that will surely come in handy when the season commences. Moreover, the return of fifth-year sr. G Jeff Ryan, the glue to Carmody's motion offense who suffered a torn ACL in last year's opener, more than compensates for the loss of the one-dimensional Coble.
St. John's... The Red Storm made one of the more curious coaching hires in the offseason, plucking ex-UCLA HC Steve Lavin away from ESPN in hopes that he can resurrect a program that has fallen behind other Big East powers in recent seasons. Lavin certainly adds a needed dose of p.r. to the Johnnies, who have become an afterthought in the Big Apple lately, while Lav's wife, actress/model Mary Ann Jarou, figures to be a favorite of TV cameras and the pages of the New York Post. Another curious staff addition is ex-Purdue HC Gene Keady, a former mentor of Lavin's and now his assistant. Although we're not sure Lavin is going to be a coaching upgrade from Norm Roberts, he does inherit a deep roster that returns all of its starters and ten seniors from last year's NIT qualifier. It will help if F Justin Burrell, sidetracked by injuries a year ago and victimized by a broken hand in October workouts, is back in the mix by mid-December. And it's worth noting SJU was not a particularly good shooting team LY (42% FGs, 33% triples, 65% FTs). But Big East sources are nonetheless keeping an eye on the Red Storm's versatile 6'5 swingman D.J. Kennedy (team-best 15.1 ppg LY) and Gs Paris Horne and Malik Boothe, all of whom are likely to flourish in Lavin's preferred uptempo pace. And the Storm's one-man recruiting class, L.A. product 6'7 frosh Dwayne Polee Jr., looks to be a perfect fit for the go-go Lavin style.
Saint Louis... No one was expecting much from Rick Majerus' Billikens last season when entering the campaign with a frosh and soph-dominated roster. But Majerus mixed and matched the mostly-young components expertly, and along with the trademark Majerus defense, the Bills evolved into a formidable outfit and reached the postseason, advancing all of the way to the CBI Finals before bowing to Virginia Commonwealth. Now SLU has a veteran look with all five starters returning, although the Bills will have to prove they are beyond the frequent blackouts experienced on the attack end, where their offense often disappeared, such as in the A-10 Tourney quarterfinals vs. Rhode Island when held to just 47 points, and a regular-season game vs. Richmond when the Spiders limited the Bills to only 36. Having 6'8 soph Aussie F Cody Ellis available from the outset (he wasn't eligible the first 14 games a year ago) should prove a plus, but Majerus will have to proceed without promising 6'9 jr. F Willie Reed, who was suspended and eventually transferred in October. In a related matter, jr. PG Kwamain Mitchell, an explosive scoring threat (team-best 15.9 ppg) but whose score-first mindset might not be ideally suited to effective PG work, is also suspended for at least the fall semester, although it is expected that he will regain eligibility and return to the team by January. And that's important, because Mitchell is the main supply line to the frontcourt, which needs more reliable service to flourish. Still, with everybody on hand from a year ago, SLU should be in the usual scrum of A-10 entries competing for postseason berths and could emerge as a possible sleeper for a Big Dance at-large berth.
South Carolina... Flying way under the radar in the SEC are the Gamecocks, who are being discounted by many regional observers simply because of the loss of three starters, including do-everything G Devan Downey, who has finally graduated. A preseason injury to returning G Ramon Galloway (who should be back sometime in December) has added further doubt to a lineup that at the outset will return only two contributors from last season, serviceable frontliners Sam Muldrow and Lakeem Jackson. But some SEC sources are cautioning to watch out for HC Darrin Horn's bountiful recruiting harvest that includes a gaggle of touted true frosh, including PG Bruce Ellington and PFs Damontre Harris and R.J. Slawson, each capable of making an immediate impact. Moreover, 6'5 swingman Malik Cooke is now eligible after transferring from Nevada, where he scored 10.4 ppg in 2008-09. By the time SEC play rolls around, the Gamecocks could be a feisty bunch.
Southern Miss... HC Larry Eustachy is predicting big things for this year's USM, which returns all five starters from the school's first postseason bid (NIT) in a decade. And it might have been even better for the Golden Eagles a year ago had they not fallen short in several close games, losing four of them by three points or fewer. Playing Eustachy's trademark solid "D" (USM led C-USA in scoring defense at 59.8 ppg) should again keep the team in the hunt most nights; watch G Sai'Quoin Stone, one of C-USA's best perimeter stoppers. Eustachy's versatile lineup consists of several movable parts, none more intriguing than 6'10 shooting G Maurice Bolden, who handles the ball and shoots 3s (35%) well enough to be an effective perimeter threat. Still, 6'8 sr. F Gary Flowers (15 ppg LY) remains Eustachy's go-to threat, and is considered USM's most-talented player since Clarence Weatherspoon, who led the Golden Eagles to the Bg Dance in the early '90s. Newcomers such as frosh 6'1 Tracey Jackson, who could see significant minutes at PG, and 6'8 juco "animal" Abyaro Phillips (who was dismissed from Nevada in April of 2009 for carrying a gun on campus; don't mess with this guy) could make positive impacts as well.
Stanford... HC Johnny Dawkins (34-32 in two years on The Farm) has been hovering around the .500 mark since taking over at Palo Alto, but Pac-10 sources think there's a chance the Cardinal could emerge in what looks to once again be a very watered-down conference. The departure of sharpshooter Landry Fields (22 ppg LY) and yet another knee injury suffered by 6'8 F Andy Brown (who also missed last season with knee problems) on the surface appear to be significant negatives. But Dawkins still has one of the Pac-10's best marksmen in G Jeremy Green, who fired away three-pointers (taking almost 8 pg!) in a manner that recalled all-time long-range bomber Les Selvage from the old Anaheim Amigos of the ABA. Green also hit 38% of his triples and rates as the Pac-10's most dangerous returning perimeter threat. The return of jr. PF Josh Owens, who reappears after missing last year due to a medical condition, adds some sizzle to a frontline that also returns rugged former Santa Clara transfer Andrew Zimmerman and welcomes one of the Pac-10's premier recruits in 6'10 frosh Dwight Powell (expected to make an immediate impact) and 6'7 frosh Anthony Brown, who can float to the perimeter and bury triples. Another touted frosh, PG Aaron Bright, could push returning starter Jarrett Mann (second in Pac-10 assists LY at 4.3 pg) for minutes at PG.
Virginia... Eventually, lack of depth caught up with the Cavaliers a year ago, but for a while Virginia was the team nobody wanted to face in the ACC, as new HC Tony Bennett's patient and defensive style of ball became the rule in Charlottesville. And even when the Cavs faded late in the season, they were competitive most nights vs. the ACC's elite, more impressive because Bennett had to suspend leading scorer Sylven Landesberg down the stretch after earlier losing other key cogs Jamil Tucker and Calvin Baker. The tough-mindedness helped Virginia upset Boston College in the ACC Tourney and then put a scare into Duke, holding the Blue Devils to their lowest scoring output (57 points) of the season. Nobody is expecting much this season, either, but regional sources suspect that a pair of highly-touted "4-Star" true frosh, 6'8 F James Johnson and 6'5 shooting G KT Harrell, can make an immediate impact. And Harrell likely gets a chance to show what he can do right out of the gate, as one of Bennett's three returning starters, G Sammy Zeglinski (38% triples LY), might be out until sometime in December as he rehabs a knee injury suffered in early October. By January, we suspect nobody in the ACC will be looking forward to a dose of "Bennett Ball."