Wed CBB "True Steam"
By vegas-runner
VIRGINIA opened -2....Now -2.5
This is another "early move" that will definitely be missed by most...And it's one of those "positions" that is concealed well, because the books aren't forced to adjust too much...Thanks to the betting public, who is expected to come in on the other side...More importantly, this game also features an "Injury" concern...with Virginia Forward Mike Scott listed as "questionable" with an ankle injury...Now with the Wiseguy waiting until the day after the line first went up for this match-up...we can conclude 1 of 2 things...That the Outfits either "confirmed" that Scott will play, and are getting a jump on the books...Or, that the Outfits know that he won't play...but feel that the books have over-adjusted for this...Either way, we can be sure that the Wiseguys like the Virginia side after having some time to handicapp the match-up...Since as I said earlier...this is one of those "early moves" that the Syndicates didn't jump on immediately, but instead came back this morning...to claim a position on Virginia...And that is why we are seeing this line now at -2.5...almost all across the board...VR
LINE PREDICTION : For starters, I agree with the books that I've already spoke with...that the betting public will be on UAB for this game...And that will help the books balance the game, since the Wiseguys bet Virginia...I will not be surprised at all, to see this line come back down to 2 as the UAB money starts to come into the books...And if word comes out that Scott won't play, then the books may feel confortable in adjusting even more, possibly down to a PK...But what I do want to add is that my Ratings/Numbers show that the Virginia side is offering up more than enough Value to justify a wager...even without Scott...So for us, and I believe the Wiseguys as well...whether he plays or not isn't going to change our position, instead, it may only strengthen it if he does go...And any adjustment would be made by the books based on that news, and not because of "steam"...So don't let that type of move scare you off, later in the day...Because either way, right now we are getting an extremely fair number on the Virginia side...And if you don't agree and like UAB, then I would go ahead and grab the points now...Because you really shouldn't get a better number by waiting...VR
I usually stay away from games with "Injuries"...when I'm not 100% sure of the status before making my wager...But in this spot, the Wiseguys let me know from their actions this morning...that my Ratings/Numbers are on point for this one...And that the Value is definitely on the Virginia side...