Wednesday Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs
As you all know by now (drilling it into your heads on our daily tip sheets), the NBA regular season continues to dwindle down to the last two weeks of play. There’s still uncertainty circulating about the seeded placement of teams in both conferences.
There’s no doubt that the most intriguing matchup on Wednesday’s docket will witness a game between Golden State (45-28 straight up, 34-40 against the spread) and Dallas (46-28 SU, 31-39-4 ATS) with huge playoff implications.
It’s becoming a daily routine that the Nuggets (45-29 SU, 40-34 ATS) and Warriors continue rotating in and out of the playoff bubble.
Denver posted a colossal 119-112 victory over rival Golden State last Saturday. Hitting 46 percent of their shots from the field, Denver’s Kenyon Martin and Carmelo Anthony combined for a blistering 55 points. The Warriors where outscored 31-26 in the fourth quarter, and the Nuggets walked away with a small edge in the playoff picture.
But that’s all in the past and Golden State must now fend for themselves against a Dallas squad whose just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven.
The Mavericks ended a mini, three-game road trip on Monday. Dallas’ close 93-86 win over the L.A. Clippers (on Monday) was the first ATS win since Mar. 16. And while the Mavs have been tearing up tickets, scoring a putrid 97.2 PPG and giving up 99.2 PPG has equated to a point difference of minus-two. This is not the way a high caliber squad should be looking to close the book on this season.
Since Jason Kidd packed his bags for Dallas (averaging 10.1 PPG and 9.5 APG in 21 games played with Dallas), the team has gone 11-10 SU and 10-10-1 ATS. Even more appalling is Dallas’ 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS record versus teams with a winning record since adding Kidd to the roster.
The Warriors will be entering their fourth meeting with the Mavs this season, registering a 1-2 SU record thus far. It was on Sunday that Golden State earned it first victory against Dallas in a 114-104 affair. The Warriors came out on top financially, covering the five-point spread and pinning the ‘over’ 213.5 PPG.
In the two meetings immediate meetings after facing San Antonio this season, Golden State has gone 0-2 SU and ATS.
Bucking the aforementioned trend is Golden State’s 22-5-1 ATS record versus the Mavs in their last 28 meetings. In back-to-back contests, the Warriors are 11-8 SU and 10-9 ATS.
Dallas has been on a financial slide since losing Dirk Nowitzki (23.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG) on Mar. 23 to an ankle and knee sprain. In the four games that Nowitzki has been sidelined, the Mavs have gone 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. Offense production has been solid with the team shooting for 46 percent from the field. However, a defense giving up 102 PPG in the four-game stretch has been fundamentally flawed.
Total players watch the score board. The ‘over’ has cashed tickets in the last three head-to-head meetings and is 8-1 in the last nine games played in Dallas.
With the Mavs only a ½-game ahead of the Warriors for the No. 7 seed in the West, Wednesday’s tip off will be that much more important.
Bonus Tip
**Toronto at Atlanta**
The Hawks are holding on for dear life in the attempt to make a playoff appearance since the 1998-99 season. Atlanta is currently up a full two games inside the playoff bubble, and with Indiana and New Jersey on its heals, wins are becoming a high premium.
Meeting at center court with the Raptors, who have secured four straight ATS wins in head-to-head contests, the Hawks will be looking for their ninth win in their last 11. While Atlanta’s financial statement is at a decent 6-4 ATS in the last 10, eight ‘over’ games (four in a row) have sent total players scrambling for rewards.
During the eight-game SU run, the Hawks are shooting an underachieving 41 percent from the field but have held down the opposition to just 38 percent field goal shooting. Add in 330 rebounds versus opponents’ 296 rebounds and Atlanta has been out muscling teams on the boards.
It’s been a completely different story in Toronto.
A 5-12 SU free fall coupled with 4-13 ATS deficit has the Raptors in desperation mode. Toronto is up one-game ahead of Washington for the No. 6 seed and gearing to face four Eastern Conference teams with losing records should be a good time to solidify its playoff property. The Raptors are 19-16 ATS versus teams playing under .500 this season (8-9 ATS on the road and 11-7 at home).
A 5-0 ATS stand has blessed backers this season when Toronto is coming off two days of rest.
When Atlanta’s star Joe Johnson has reached or exceeded the 30-point mark, the team has gone 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS.
Most books have opened the Hawks as 2½ point home favorites.
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Toronto (38-36, 37-36-1 ATS) at Atlanta (34-40, 34-39-1 ATS)
The Hawks continue their pursuit of their first playoff berth since 1999 when they host the Raptors in a key Eastern Conference clash for both teams.
Atlanta, which is coming off Monday’s 116-99 rout of the Grizzlies as a three-point favorite, has won four straight games and eight of its last 10, with three of the last four victories coming by double digits. With about two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Hawks have a firm grip on the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, three games ahead of Indiana and 3½ games behind Philadelphia for the No. 7 seed.
Toronto held off the Bobcats in Charlotte on Monday, prevailing 104-100 as a 2½-point road chalk. The Raptors have followed up a 3-11 slump by winning three of their last four. However, they’re only 4-13 ATS in their last 17 outings, including 3-7 ATS on the road.
The Raptors have a four-game SU and ATS winning streak against Atlanta, taking the first two meetings this year by scores of 100-88 as a three-point road chalk and 89-78 as a six-point home favorite. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 series meetings, with the Raptors going 7-3 during this stretch, including 5-1 in Atlanta. Finally, the road team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 head-to-head clashes.
Despite its spread-cover against Memphis on Monday, the Hawks are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven and 6-10 ATS in their last 16 overall, including 3-6 ATS at home. Atlanta is also on pointspread slumps of 3-8 on Wednesdays and 2-7 when playing on one day of rest.
The Raptors are 29-9 ATS in their last 38 Wednesday contests and 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 versus Southeast Division foes. On the downside, Toronto has failed to get the cash in five straight road games and four straight contests when playing on one days’ rest.
Atlanta has topped the total in four straight games and eight of the last 10. Also, the over is 17-5 in the last 22 Hawks-Raptors battles, including 5-1 in the last six in Atlanta. However, Toronto has stayed under the number in six of its last eight outings overall and four of its last five on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and OVER
Golden State (45-29, 33-41 ATS) at Dallas (46-28, 31-39-4 ATS)
The Warriors and Mavericks hook up for the second time this week, this time at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, as the two squads continue their quest for the playoffs.
Dallas currently occupies the seventh spot in the Western Conference playoff standings, a half-game ahead of Denver for the eighth and final berth and one game ahead of the Warriors, who currently sit on the outside looking in.
Golden State pulled away from the Mavs late in the fourth quarter on Sunday en route to a 114-104 victory as a five-point home favorite. However, the Warriors followed that with last night’s 116-92 loss at San Antonio as an 8½-point underdog – ending a 37-game streak in which Golden State had scored at least 100 points. Don Nelson’s team has alternated SU wins and losses in its last 12 contests, but it has rebounded from a 2-5 ATS slump by going 3-1 ATS in its last four.
Dallas bounced back from Sunday’s loss at Golden State and held off the Clippers 93-86 on Monday, barely cashing as a 6½-point road chalk to halt an 0-6 ATS slide. Despite the win, the Mavericks are just 2-5 SU in their last seven, including 1-3 at home.
The Warriors, who pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in NBA playoff history last year in knocking out top-seeded Dallas in six games, are now 22-5-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings with the Mavs, including 11-3 ATS in Texas. However, Dallas had won the first two series clashes this year prior to Sunday’s loss in Golden State.
Additionally in this rivalry, the home team has cashed in four straight battles, and the underdog is 20-7-1 ATS in the past 28 meetings.
Despite last night’s blowout loss in San Antonio, the Warriors remain on pointspread streaks of 13-6 against the Southwest Division, 6-4 on the road and 9-4 when playing on back-to-back nights.
The Mavs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven on Wednesdays. Aside from that, however, they are mired in ATS funks of 2-6-2 against the Pacific Division, 0-7 against winning teams, 0-4 at home and 0-4 when playing on one day of rest.
The over is 20-8 in the last 28 series meetings (3-0 in the last three), including 8-1 in the last nine clashes at American Airlines Center. Also, the over is on runs of 9-3 for Golden State against the Southwest Division, 9-2 for Golden State when playing on back-to-back nights, 39-19-1 for Golden State on Wednesdays and 9-2 for Dallas against the Pacific Division. On the flip side, the Warriors have stayed low in nine of their last 13 outings overall and five straight on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GOLDEN STATE and OVER
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