Joe Wiz premium paid play - Phoenix
Teddy June
Celtics
Clippers
Fairway Jay
4 units Nets
HalfBets
7* UTEP -9
Wunderdog
4 units Orlando
3 units Dallas
DOC
5-Unit Play Take Charlotte +8½ Over Boston
Yes, the Bobcats got a huge win over the Lakers last night and this should be a letdown spot, right? Wrong. This Bobcats team can smell the No. 8 playoff spot and are now one game behind the Bulls for that final position. This team is basically already in the playoffs and every night is a must win. That is a great sign for Bobcats backers tonight as this team has had the MO of playing hard all season long and that is why they went from a horrible early-season record to being in the playoff hunt. Plus, this team isn’t going to sit there and celebrate a win over the Lakers like they just won the NBA Finals, this team has actually now swept the Lakers this season and has wins against plenty of strong playoff clubs, including these Celtics. The C’s will be without Kevin Garnett tonight and are just 5-13 ATS without him this season. The Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight, Boston is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, the Bobcats have covered six of the last seven meetings including both this season and the underdog is 12-0 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
3-Unit Play Take LA Lakers -6½ Over Milwaukee
After two tough losses to playoff-caliber teams we think the Lakers flex their muscle tonight and have a huge game against the Bucks. Milwaukee got a big win last time out over the hapless Nets but in their five previous games, most against the league’s elite (like the Lakers), the Bucks lost all five games by an average of 16 points and their only single-digit loss was to the Raptors, a team not in the playoff hunt. That is the sign of a team that has given up on the season. The Lakers played very motivated teams the last two nights but we think tonight that they will be the motivated team in an attempt to avoid a three-game losing streak and also end the road trip on a positive note. Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall and this is one of the rare cases where we feel there is actually some value on a Lakers side.
3-Unit Play Take Miami +5½ Over Dallas
The road team has actually covered six straight meetings in this series (with one push) and we love getting this many points tonight with a solid Miami club against a very inconsistent Dallas team. Miami has a lot to play for as they are the No. 5 seed in the East as it stands now but Philly is just a half game behind them. If they fall to the No. 6 seed that sets up a first round series against Boston or Orlando instead of Atlanta, their projected opponent as the No. 5. That’s a big difference and they know it. If you look at the Mavs recent wins and losses, they have notched wins over teams out of the playoff hunt while they have lost all recent games to playoff clubs. We think that Miami has a very good chance for the straight up win here but this should be a close game and we think the underdog has the value tonight.
4-Unit Play Take Phoenix -1½ Over Houston
Backing another team with major motivation tonight as every game for the Suns from here on out is basically a playoff game as they are barely alive in the race for the last spot in the West. Phoenix is a very good home team (24-13) while the Rockets are just mediocre on the road (18-18). The Suns have lost three straight but all have come on the road. Before that they had won six straight, five of which were at home and three of which were against playoff clubs. Houston has been playing well but they have had a home-heavy schedule lately. The Suns have owned this series against the number, cashing in 10 of the last 13 meetings.
3-Unit Play Take Oregon St + 9½
SPORTS UNLIMITED
7* HOUSTON ROCKETS
3* NJ NETS
Seabass
20* BUFF,COLORADO
20* NETS,CHARLOTTE
50*PHOENIX,MEMPHIS,SACRAMENTO
100* STEAM PLAY UTEP
Mike Lineback
Sac Kings
Bob Balfe
Phoenix Suns
Opposite Action Plays
Memphis Grizzlies
Drew Gordon
200* UTEP
Michael Smiley
Washington - Oregon State
Jackson - Lakers
SMTM Sports Picks
3* Bobcats +9
2* Raptors +10
1* Nets -1
JMK WINNERS
15* Pistons
10* Golden State
5* Bucks
Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
ORLANDO (-9 ½) over Toronto
Toronto is a 2 points worse than an average team in the 68 games that Chris Bosh has played and they’re even worse since their trade with Miami during the All-Star Break. Orlando is 8 points better than average with either Jameer Nelson (out for the season) or Rafer Alston, whom they acquired during the All-Star Break to fill the void at point after Nelson’ injury, in the lineup. Home court advantage when both teams are rested is 3 points, so Orlando should be favored by at least 13 points in this game (more if you only use Toronto’s games since acquiring Shawn Marion for O’Neal and Moon). The line is only 9 ½ points in this game perhaps because Toronto has won and covered in 4 consecutive games and appear to be “hot”. But, those 4 wins were not out of the ordinary for a Raptors team that tends to beat sub-par teams and is 14-11 ATS as a favorite of 2 points or more. That record may not seem that out of the ordinary, but it’s much better than Toronto’s 14-32-2 ATS record this season when not favored by 2 points or more. Toronto is just 3-20-2 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points against a team that had at least 1 night off between games and the Raptors apply to a negative 14-62-1 ATS big road underdog letdown situation that is based on their current winning streak. Toronto is also just 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games after consecutive wins, including 0-11 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .650 or more. Orlando, meanwhile, is 45-21-2 ATS in two seasons under coach Stan Van Gundy when facing a team that is 3 games or more under .500. I’ll take Orlando in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.
3 Star Selection
L.A. Lakers (-7) over MILWAUKEE
The Bucks are coming off a blowout victory over the Nets on Monday night, but Milwaukee is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games and they’re only 4-13-1 ATS following their last 18 victories (0-5 ATS recently). Milwaukee applies to a negative 29-78-2 ATS home letdown situation while the Lakers, who have lost two straight games, apply to a 101-40-3 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation. The Lakers are also 19-4 ATS in their last 24 road games laying 11 or less points against teams that are 2 games below .500 or worse. My ratings favor the Lakers by 7 ½ points, which is what the opening line was, so we have some line value on our side as well. Kobe Bryant has been feeling a little ill but his upset stomach should be less of an issue (or no issue) tonight and I’ll take the Lakers in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 ½ points.
Wednesday College Opinion
Oregon State at UTEP UNDER (134 ½)
I leaned with the Under in the first game of this CBI Tournament Championship series and Oregon State won 75-69 as the total went will over the posted line of 131 points. However, Oregon State made an incredible 60.5% of their shots and the teams combined for 51% shooting, which is not something that can be expected again. The pace of that game was only 2 possessions per team higher than I had projected and my math model predicts just 129 ½ total points in this game (127 ½ if it ends in regulation). If the pace of the game is the same in game 1 (2 possessions faster than expected) then the projected total would be 132 points in 40 minutes, so the game would still likely go under even if the higher than expected pace repeated itself. I’ll lean Under 133 points or more based on the line value.