Scott Rickenbach
2* Top Play
Denver at LA Lakers
Play: Denver +6
The Lakers are wearing down and we’ll gladly grab the half-dozen points here as Los Angeles will be challenged just to win this game…let alone cover what will be a mountain of a point spread for them. Keep in mind, the Lakers got a much needed break after dispatching of the Jazz in just five games to open up the post-season. However, they followed that up with a grueling series against the Rockets that went the full seven games. Then, they had just one day off before having to meet the Nuggets and the Lakers have now been battling it out with Denver in a tightly contested series that is 2-2 so far. Tonight’s game will be the Lakers 6th in 11 days and 12th in 24 days. Conversely, the Nuggets are playing just their 5th game in 14 days and 8th game in 22 days! Denver has been afforded some nice breaks throughout the post-season as they dispatched of both the Hornets and Mavericks in just five games each!
We see the wear and tear showing up for the Lakers as they were outrebounded by 17 boards in Monday’s Nuggets win. Los Angeles is finding out how much more difficult the paint is to navigate when facing a team with a loaded frontcourt. Hilario, Martin, and Andersen were rebounding machines in the Game Four win and Nuggets coach Karl is pushing for continued aggressiveness in Game Five. Coach Karl has already correctly noted that the chance to steal another game in Los Angeles is greater in Game Five than it would be in Game Seven. In other words, there will be no let-up from the Nuggets tonight as they continue to play aggressive and play their style and push the tempo. Gasol is calling for the ball more for the Lakers but he’s quickly getting double teamed as soon as he gets the ball and he is a finesse player who is up against a very physical Nuggets frontcourt.
We understand the line the odds maker posted here because it relates to everyone expecting Los Angeles to bounce back at home. We just don’t see that happening. The Nuggets lost Game One in Los Angeles but the Lakers biggest lead in the game was four points. Then, in Game Two, the Nuggets won outright. In Game Three, the Lakers stole won in Denver but the biggest lead for either team the entire game was eight points and Los Angles used a 32-18 fourth quarter to get the win. On Monday, the Nuggets bounced back with a huge win and, as you can see from the above, is there really any justification for the Lakers to be expected to win this game by a sizable margin? The answer to that is truly a no. The Lakers biggest lead in Game Four was a single point. They’ve just not been able to put away the Nuggets in any of these games. They won Game One but never led by more than four points and, when Los Angles won Game Three, they did on the strength of a rare fourth quarter collapse for Denver. We are very comfortable backing the fresher, stronger, and more physical team here as the series goes on and as the point spread is simply too high for Los Angeles here. Play Denver plus the points as a Top Play selection.
Mark Fox
Denver at LA Lakers
Play: Under 209.5
In this western Conference Finals Game 5 between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers, take the total to stay UNDER the posted number!!!
We will still stick to a low scoring contest in Game 5 as we were looking great to hit the UNDER 211 in game 4 as they had 143 combined points after 3 periods, BUT went off the sheet with 78 combined points in the 4th quarter!!!
More UNDER Trends:
# The UNDER is 9-3 in the Nuggets L12 ROAD games
# The UNDER is 11-1 in the Nuggets L12 games as playoff underdogs between 5 & 10.5 points
# The UNDER is 7-1 in the Lakers L8 overall games
# The UNDER is 8-1 in the Lakers L99 Conference Finals games
# The UNDER is 7-1 in the Lakers L8 games vs. Western Conference opponents
# The UNDER is 6-0 in the Lakers L6 games as postseason favorites
# The UNDER is 9-4 in the Lakers L13 HOME games as favorites between 5 & 10.5 points
The UNDER is 9-2 in the L11 meetings between the 2 teams!!!
DOC
4-Unit Play Take Denver/LA Lakers Under 209½
In Game 4 there were a whopping 78 points scored in the fourth quarter and we think that this was an aberration and that really skewed the result of the game in a series that has clearly been an under series thus far. Most of this game was well on pace for the under until the fourth quarter and even if only 60 points had been scored in that quarter, hypothetically, (which would have still been the highest scoring quarter in the game) the total would have gone well under the posted number. As a result we are getting an even better total tonight and we think that both teams will be playing strong defense tonight as this is another one of these critical games where the winner takes a big advantage in the series. The under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
3-Unit Play #517 Take Denver +6 Over LA Lakers
Denver has really been one of the best bets in the NBA down the stretch and in the playoffs and they have covered 21 of their last 26 games. We had this game capped at 4 and we think that we would have a lean towards Denver at that number anyways and we think there is some nice value here at this number. We expect a hard-fought game here and one that should come down to the end and it would not surprise us to see the Nuggets steal another one in LA and we think this is a very public number tonight.
NHL
5 Unit Play. Take Detroit Over Chicago -1½ +125
MLB
3-Unit Play Take Minnesota Twins -115 over Boston Red Sox
Tony George
Cincinnati Reds
Marc Lawrence
LA Lakers
JB Sports
LA Lakers
Lenny Del Genio
LA Lakers
Ron Raymond
White Sox/Angels Over
Nick Parsons
Nuggets/Lakers Under
slappingtheman.yolasite.com
bud smith free play cleve/tampa over 11 1*
fran copeland free play lakers/nuggets under 209.5 1*
bud smith pd plays
white sox/angels over 9 3*
houston +136 8* NL game of the month
houston/cincy over 9.5 3*
zona/sd under 9 10* NL total of the month
fran copeland pd plays
lakers -6 10* NBA western conference game of the year
Dave Malinsky
4* Cincy
4* Cleveland
Erin Rynning
20* Texas
Playmaker: Lakers
Smooth44
(mlb) 1:05pm Est
St. Louis +125
(mlb) 2:10pm Est
Detroit -110
(mlb) 7:05pm Est
Florida +185
(mlb) 8:05pm Est
White Sox +185
(nba) 8:10pm Est
Boston +125
(nba) 9:05pm Est
Denver +6
Knockout Punch Of The Day
(nba) 9:05pm Est
Denver ML +230
(nba) 9:05pm Est
Denver Under 210 Under -120
No Vegas Runner or others from that site Thanks 😉
Underground Sports Connection
200* Chicago White Sox