Chris Jordan
100* CAVALIERS
Cleveland comes in riding a four-game win streak after last night?s 16-point home rout of the Sonics, and brings its game into the A-T-L, where the Hawks are sporting a four-game slide. The Hawks have been dormant since the 5th, when the Nets came into Atlanta and won by six points, which followed a three-game road trip ? including a four-point loss at Cleveland. The Cavaliers have won four straight and six of seven in this series, while they?ve covered three of the last four meetings. More importantly, Cleveland is 3-0 SU and ATS the last three times it?s come to Atlanta. Tonight, with the points, this should be an easy win!
100* SUNS
For a team being accused of being inconsistent with ?chemistry and finding its groove,? I have been extremely impressed with how well the Suns have won five of their last six ? averaging 112 points per game, and winning by an average margin of 14.2 points per game. The Pacers pushed this team back in December, losing 121-117 in Indianapolis, but it was still the fifth straight loss in the series for Indy. And with Amare Stoudamire appearing to perform like the player he was prior to his major knee injury, and has this team rejuvenated on offense. Indiana has lost six straight road games, including the opening to a season-high five-game road trip ? a 112-96 rout at the hands of the Lakers on Sunday. Lay the chalk with Phoenix here, as we roll
three2won
Mississippi 9.0 vs Tennessee
Analysis:
3-UNITS
WE have a soft line.
Mississippi trounced New Mexico and went over to Clemson and beat them by two points. Im an avid follower of the Tennessee Volunteers, and I love them, but there is no indication that Mississippi should be given this many points. We are backing the most underrated team in the nation right now.
In all honesty, I pegged this game for a possible loss for Tennessee, so the thought of a Tennessee blowout is fairly remote in my mind.
While Im thinking of it
Mississippi has a team, and coaching staff that can handle the Tennessee press. A testament to this fact is that Missy crushed Tennessee last year (83-69).
The pieces are in place to win again, but well take the points and hold tight.
What do you need in order to beat Tennessee?
You need a steady rotation of guards that are oversized at the 2-guard spot, and 2-deep at the point. Ball handling is key. Size in the back-court is a must, and an up tempo mentality is KEY.
You must be able to get the long rebound, and you need to have equal footing in the paint.
Mississippi has all of these traits and more.
I will promise you that Missy will take more than 20 foul shots tonight. Tennessee may be able to get us to the line as many as 10 more times than they reach it.
Tennessee had 22 personal fouls against Missy last year, and the Rebels are now BIGGER at the guard spot, so the possibility of fouls becomes greater, in my opinion.
The Rebels fronted 2 small guards that were no taller than 61 for over 35 minutes each last year. Normally, that kind of small footing on the perimeter gives Tennessee a huge advantage, but Mississippi still managed to beat Tennessee by almost 20 points.
Part of that was a 22-13 Personal Foul ratio!
The uglier aspect was that Tennessee turned it over 19 times as well!
Missy had 11 steals.
Missy can front Tennessee:
This is an alignment issue for Tennessee, and the set-up HAS NOT changed very much in a years time.
Mississippi will have the advantage in the paint in this game, just like they did last year, and now they have more size, and more skill than the team that crushed Tennessee in 2007.
Dont get me wrong: Tennessee, at home, under Bruce Pearl is a tough team to beat, but we are getting 9 points! Thats a hell-of-a-cushion for a team that just beat Clemson on their home court.
Its a BIG cushion for a team that slammed the Tennessee press one year ago with roughly the same team
I understand that Tennessee is much improved, and they may be the better team, but I have every reason to believe that Missy can actually dictate the tempo of this game. I know that can hang with the VOLS.
Back-Court:
The guards of Mississippi have one of the best, combined assist-to-turnover ratios that Ive seen.
Warren is 2/1
Polynice is almost 2/1
Huertas is 1.3/1
And backing up the point we have:
Trevor Gaskins at 4/1
DONT FADE A TEAM WITH GREAT BALL HANDLING ASSIST MACHINES AT THE POINT IN THE 2-DEEP!
We have depth against the press with this Missy team, and that is a huge problem for Tennessee. Pearl likes to wait for the weaker ball handlers to come into the game before dumping a full press on them. They like tired players as well. Not gonna happen tonight. This is a Missy team that catches a second wind against certain teams.
Tennessee preys on shallow perimiter groupings:
Did you see Xavier wilt in the last 10 minutes of their match with Tennessee?
How about Gonzaga?
Their backcourt depth was questionable, especially at the point.
This shouldnt happen tonight.
Front-Court:
Tennessee has the 4th best RPI in the country at .659, but Mississippis is right there at .623 (#20)
And yet Missy averages 43 rebounds per game to Tennessees 36.
Missy out shoots Tennessee.
Missy shoots better from the line.
Missy shoots better from the ARC.
Missy blocks more shots per game.
The vaunted Tennessee turnover creators have a stellar 1.7/1 ATR
Underrated Mississippi is right there with them at 1.4/1 ATR!
Where is the separation?
Why are we sitting at +9?
Take the points..
FERRINGO
ADDED PLAY:
3.5-Unit Play. Take Arizona State (-1.5) over Arizona (9:30 p.m., Wedneday, Jan. 9)
Note: This game was posted at 1:45 EST and is based off a line released by BetCris/Bookmaker. Don't worry, we won't count it toward your record if this was the difference between a winning and losing night/week. I'm all over this game so I just want to give my clients the ability to get on it as well. Play up to -3.0 and then start dropping units between that and -5.5.
Arizona State actually - and finally - enters this game as the better team with the better talent. Jerryd Bayless is likely out for Arizona. But even if he isn't, a sprained knee is a lot harder to come back from than a sore ankle or shoulder. Arizona looked lost without its PG and leading scorer against Oregon and now going on the road without one of its biggest weapons is going to be trouble. ASU blitzed Xavier at home earlier this year and tonight I think they are going to dominate their in-state rival in front of a raucous home crowd. The home team is 6-1 ATS in this series, ASU is 9-2 ATS at home and 6-1-1 ATS in conference play, and Arizona is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six and 2-6 ATS in conference games.
ETHAN LAW
CBB Sides
dime bet Tennessee -10.0 vs Mississippi
OLE MISS (13-0) at TENNESSEE (12-1)
PLAY 1* UNIT ON TENNESSEE -10
CBB Sides
dime bet Charlotte 15.5 vs Clemson
CHARLOTTE (8-5) at CLEMSON (12-2)
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NC CHARLOTTE +15.5
THE STRALEY GROUP: DALLAS (NHL) vs CHICAGO
Play: DALLAS (NHL)
THE STRALEY GROUP: MIAMI vs MILWAUKEE
Play: MIAMI vs MILWAUKEE OVER 189
THE STRALEY GROUP: GOLDEN STATE vs PORTLAND
Play: GOLDEN STATE vs PORTLAND UNDER 208
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* New Orleans
2. 50,000* George Mason
3. 50,000* Mavericks
1. New Orleans- We find some real value in this contest, because New Orleans is being seriously underestimated coming off consecutive losses, while Denver has won 4 straight ATS and has apparently won the undeserved love of oddsmakers. I'm calling this game my Massacre of the Month, because I see the Privateers routing this Pioneers squad tonight at home and here's why...
First and foremost, Denver has been absolute garbage on the road this season, going 0-7 SU & 3-3 ATS. But its not just that their winless away, but its their overall poor effort when they travel, averaging just 48 ppg on 40% shooting, while surrendering 63 ppg on a laughable 51% shooting... That disparity is absolutely disgusting.
Second, just how do you expect a sputtering Pioneers offense to keep pace with a Privateers attack that's dropping 80 ppg on 50% shooting (47% from 3-point) over their last 5 games?! New Orleans is led by NBA-bound G Bo McCalebb, who's 21.8 ppg paces their offense, and will have a field day with this Pioneers backcourt. Privateers also have some solid frontcourt players in F Dykes and 6'10 bigbody Ben Elias to match up against Denver's frontcourt, which features their only real threats in Kummer and Tanner. As a side note, the fact that 6'8 C Tanner is their leading assit guy (38) should tell you something about this Denver offense!
Finally, let's look at the trends, as Denver is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings with New Orleans. Not only that, but the Pioneers are also just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 road games. Their last loss on the road was in a non-lined contest against Middle Tennessee State, where they managed only 50 points and shot 38% from the field against a terrible Blue Raiders defense (allowing 73 ppg on 47% shooting on the season). If they couldn't capitalize in that game, they sure as hell ain't gonna get it done against a solid Privateers squad tonight. New Orleans rolls in this match up!
Take New Orleans BIG over Denver as your top-rated play of the day.
2. George Mason- Several glaring mismatches in this contest, but none bigger than senior F Will Thomas against this Delaware frontcourt. Sure, the Blue Hens' Herb Courtney is a good player, but he's been known to disappear at times (5 points at Maryland, 7 points at William & Mary), and will have his hands full with very active Thomas in this one (9.8 rebounds per game).
Next, while both teams rely on a bevy of guards after their one solid post player, its the Patriots who possess the superior talent with guards Vaughan, Campbell, and Smith all averaging in double-figures. The Blue Hens quartet of guards is decent, but looking over their stats, its becomes clear they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn if you asked them to. In fact, Delaware is averaging just 62 ppg on 40% shooting this season, thanks in large part to poor backcourt shooting.
For all the trouble the Blue Hens are having on offense, look for their woes to continue against a rock-solid Patriots defense. While its true George Mason's numbers on the road this year aren't great, I expect they'll be looking to rebound after a poor effort at Georgia State in their last road game. They caught a lot of flak in that game for a real poor defensive effort (allowed Georgia State to shoot 55%) and I expect a senior-laden group like the Patriots to respond.
Finally, the disparity in talent was apparent between these two teams last season, when George Mason cruised to victory in both meetings, including a 20-point shellacking the last time they played in Delaware. Most likely a closer game this time around, but not nearly close enough to consider anyone but George Mason in this spot.
Take George Mason comfortably over Delaware in this CAA match up.
3. Mavericks- So the Pistons lose to the Celtics 92-85 at home, snapping their 11-game win streak, and now everyone expects them to get right back to their winning ways tonight at Dallas? Hold on a sec', but last time I checked, the Mavs were playing some damn good basketball themselves, beating Phoenix, Orlando, and Golden State recently in Dallas to name a few!
While Detroit's defense gets all the publicity, the Mavs D has been just as good over their last 5 games, with both teams allowing about 87 ppg on 41% shooting over that span. Key here is the Pistons defense tends to let up a little on the road, with opponents shooting 44.5% on the season... Not exactly lockdown numbers. With Dallas hitting its stride behind Nowitzki, Howard, and one of the deepest rosters in the NBA , stopping their offense isn't going to be as easy as some people think.
Match up-wise, the Pistons clearly have trouble stopping Nowitzki, who's obviously not your prototypical 7-footer. His ability to spread the Detroit defense is key to the Mavs success, because once they open up, slashers like Howard and Harris can goto work penetrating. Dallas' depth also come into play, as they Pistons subs are a better unit this season, but still not on the level of the Mavericks
Finally, one has to wonder how focused the Pistons will be with a game at San Antonio looming the very next day. Its hard to overlook a team as good as Dallas, but if they're not 100% focused, Dallas will take advantage. Mavs have been damn good at home, going 16-3 SU (9-9-1 ATS), and while everyone jumps all over the Pistons in this "supposed" bounce back game, I'll stick with a one of the best teams in the West playing at home.
Take the Mavericks over the Pistons in this marquee NBA match up.
GINA
Indiana Pacers (16-20) at Phoenix Suns (24-10)
The gloomy Pacers have dropped eight of their last 10 games. Look for Indiana struggles to continue tonight when they visit the Suns in Phoenix, the energetic Suns powerful offensive play will overpower the Pacers. The home team in this series has won 13 of the last 17 meetings. Go with Phoenix to win without difficulty their fourth straight against Indiana at US Airways Center.
Phoenix Suns
ALSO:
CLEV CAVS
JOHNNY GUILD
Cleveland Cavaliers (18-17) at Atlanta Hawks (15-16)
Go with the hot Cleveland Cavaliers to seize their fifth straight victory tonight over the struggling Hawks. Atlanta has dropped their last four contests and has lost 13 of the last 15 clashes against Cleveland, including the last four. The Cavaliers have won six straight in Atlanta and the road team in this series has covered the spread in seven of the last 8 meetings.
Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5
CBB
DUKE
VANDERBILT
ATS LOCK
6 Delaware +6 1/2
5 Northeastern -6
5 UMass -3
4 Dayton -3
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Tulane -1 1/2
4 Cinncy +3 1/2
3 So Florida +2 1/2
Scott Rickenbach's Free Pick
Free Pick on Alabama- Birmingham (UAB) Blazers (+) @ Tulane @ 8 ET -
Short and sweet on this free pick write-up today as the principles in play here are rather simple ones. Note: the write-ups with our star rated picks are much more in-depth but the free picks have also enjoyed a lot of success! Best of luck. While UAB is on the road here that is serving to give us some solid line value as Tulane at home certainly doesn't scare us. UAB is looking for revenge after suffering a home loss to Tulane late last season. The best type of revenge happens on an opponent's floor and UAB will give a big effort here. The Blazers have received a big boost from a transfer who followed Coach Davis here from Indiana. The only thing that kept this from being a star rated play for us is the uncertain status of a significant Blazers player due to academics. However, UAB has already played and won without him and they can certainly do so again here! The Blazers have talent, depth, and they're responding well to Coach Davis. That is a great formula for success early in conference play and the Blazers will get their revenge here.
Play UAB plus the points as your Free Pick for Wednesday.
WILD BILL
COLLEGE HOOPS
Delaware +6 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 144 ECU-Memphis (1 unit)
Xavier -26 (1 unit)
Drexel +6 (1 unit)
Wm & Mary -1 (1 unit)
Duquesne -10 (1 unit)
Under 162 1/2 Troy-Fla Int'l (5 units)
Georgia -1 (4 units)
U Mass -3 (3 units)
Over 138 Rutgers-Prov (2 units)
So. Florida +3 1/2 (2 units)
Cincy +3 1/2 (4 units)
Drake -9 1/2 (5 units)
Middle Tenn -7 1/2 (3 units)
New Orleans -8 (3 units)
UTEP -15 (1 unit)
Vandy -8 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 164 Miss-Tennessee (1 unit)
Tennessee -8 1/2 (5 units)
Tulane -1 (3 units)
Arizona State -2 (2 units)
Davidson -11 1/2 (2 units)
Over 142 Elon-Davidson (4 units)
NBA
Cavs +3 (1 unit)
Miami +5 (5 units)
New Orleans -2 (3 units)
Portland -2 (1 unit)
Magic -3 1/2 (5 units)
Suns -10 1/2 (1 unit)
Valley Sports
NY Knicks +4.5
Indiana St +9.5
Ron Raymond
5 units - dallas/ chicago under5
5 units - detroit +2.5
5 units - george mason - 6.5
Special K WEDNESDAY FREE PICK: MARSHALL -4
INDAIN COWBOY
Delaware +6.5 (POD)
Winning 8 of 11 days, let's keep it rolling. I could very easily go with more than 1 play today, but why? Going 1-0 and gaining 3 units is the same thing - in fact, going 2-1 and gaining +2.73 units - hence, where the money management comes in. We have grown somewhere around 25 units of late, so there is no reason to go with 3 plays and, very easily lose -9.9 units. Frankly, I think the lines are a bit tight right now, so just 1 play. I like Delaware for quite a bit reasons, but mainly because there is no reason that George Mason should be favored by this much on the road as they have not proven much on the road. Delaware is a solid home team while George Mason is frankly a relatively weak road team. Mason could easily turn that around today, but I think they will find it tough. Delaware is head by a sound coaching staff. Sure, this team is 6-7, but what you might not realize is that this team has won 4 of its last 5 ballgames, why is that important? Think about it - 67% of this team's season wins comes out of the last 2 ballgames. Delaware has gone on the road to win back to back road ballgames, against William and Mary and Drexel - both teams in the top 225. Why is that significant? Well, typically teams in the top 125 do things of that caliber. This team is playing better and meshing and should be very competitive today. George Mason recently played Georgia State and lost by a bucket to a team that is ranked in the top 225 and Delaware is significantly better at top 175. Also, Delaware has revenge from last year's loss as well. George Mason is 0-6 ATS as favorites of this margin and Delaware 4-1 ATS against teams that have won 60% of their ballgames and the big D is in a good spot at home here in my opinion.
Wolkosky Milan
10* CLEVELAND +2½
10* DETROIT +2½
10* PHI/TOR OVER 186½
Tom Stryker
4 * DRAKE -9