VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Marshall Thundering Herd - 1.5 over Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa (9-8) is 1-4 in C-USA games the win coming at (7-11) SMU 72-71 on 01/19. Marshall (10-8, 2-3) is 9-2 at home including a 62-57 win over (13-6) UAB on 01/19. The Herd posted a 65-53 home win over Tulsa last season.
Massachusetts Minutemen + 5 over (at) Duquesne Dukes
Duquesne (13-5, 3-2) vs. UMass (13-6, 2-3) lost its last road game 81-77 at (4-1 A-10) St.Joseph's, attempting only 18 free throws vs. 54 free throws for the home standing Hawks. The Minutemen are 3-0 vs. the Dukes over the last three seasons.
Kansas State Wildcats + 7 over Kansas Jayhawks
No.2 Kansas (20-0, 5-0) posted a 76-70 win at (now 2-3 Big 12) Missouri in its last road game. No.22 Kansas State (14-4, 4-0) is 10-1 at home including a 75-54 win over then No.9 Texas A&M on 01/19. Teams last met in last season's Big 12 tournament, Kansas winning 67-61.
Texas Longhorns + 3 over (at) Texas A&M Aggies
No.23 A&M (16-4, 2-3) in Big 12 play ranks eighth with a minus 4.4 scoring margin. No.10 Texas (16-3, 3-1) is 3-1 vs. ranked opponents this season including a 63-61 win at then No.1 UCLA. The Horns are 15-4 vs. the Aggies under coach Barnes.
BIG AL
Creighton
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Pittsburgh Penguins at Atlanta Thrashers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
Reason: Pittsburgh has lost 2 straight while the Thrashers have dropped 5 in a row. The Penguins have won 5 of their last 7 road games. The Penguins are 10-4 in their last 14 games overall. In their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record the Penguins are 9-4. The Thashers have lost 4 of their last 5 home games. In their last 22 games vs. team's from the Atlantic Divsion the Thrashers are 6-16. Atlanta is 9-21 in the last 30 meetings between the club's. Play on the the Penguins +
RAS Side Play
556 Delaware -3' 1/2
Michael Cannon
15 Dime –
HORNETS
Take the Hornets as the home chalk tonight over the Warriors.
New Orleans continues to roll, having won and covered its last nine games. They easily handled the Warriors earlier this month, 116-104 as a 2 ½-point road dog.
In that game Golden State couldn’t handle Tyson Chandler, who had 22 points and 22 rebounds.
The Warriors are a perimeter team and fatigue could be working against them as this marks their third game in four nights and second in 48 hours.
Golden State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall, while New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 versus the NBA Pacific.
Lay the points as the Hornets win and cover again.
10 Dime –
KINGS
Take the Kings as the home chalk tonight over the Bobcats.
Sacramento is finally healthy with Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin and Ron Artest all back in the lineup. The Kings are 3-0 all-time against the Bobcats at Arco Arena, winning by an average of 16.7 points.
The Kings have been playing well at home lately, winning four of their last five games and averaging 117.5 points.
Charlotte is playing its fourth game in six days and will be hard pressed to match its shooting effort in Monday’s win over the Clippers, when they hit 56.7 percent from the floor.
Take the Kings minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
5 Dime –
DUQUESNE
Take Duquesne as the home chalk over UMass.
The Dukes are a much improved team this year, thanks in large part to forward Shawn James and guard Kojo Mensah.
Neither player was on the court for Duquesne last year when the Minutemen defeated the Dukes, 101-87.
UMass has lost its last two games, while Duquesne is riding a two-game winning streak.
Overall, the Dukes are 9-1 SU on their home court and their up-tempo game should allow them to extend their lead as the game goes on.
The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series.
Take the Dukes as they grab the home win and cover.
FERRINGO
7-Unit Play. Take #556 Delaware (-3.5) over Northeastern
Note: This is our Game of the Month.
Revenge. Big time. Two weeks ago these teams met in Massachusetts and Northeastern clawed their way to a 73-69 victory. But here’s the thing: Delaware’s leading scorer, Herb Courtney, played just 11 minutes in that game. He picked up his third foul – a technical – just seven minutes into the game. Further, Al Dawson, who led the team with 19 points, missed most of the end of the game and OT with cramps. A couple other tough breaks and the fact that the young Hens were on the road in a tricky venue tells me that this game was more of a fluke than an indicator. The Huskies are just 2-7 ATS over their L9 while Delaware is 6-2 ATS in its last eight. Further, Northeastern is 10-22 ATS on the road against good home teams and 2-8 ATS in their L10 conference games. They’ve dumped their last seven road games by 8, 2, 28, 6, 21, 2, and 9 points. That’s an average of 11 per loss, with five of the seven staying over the number we need.
Finally, Delaware has been a bounceback team, going 4-0 ATS after a SU loss and 5-0 ATS after an ATS loss. They blew a 10-point lead in the second half to Georgia State, committing turnovers and shooting just 35 percent from the field and 58 percent from the free throw line. I think they will recover nicely, with the motivation of desperately needing a conference home win and wanting revenge for a shady loss in Mass as X-factors in our favor. The Hens are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games. The home team is 7-3 SU in the last 10 in his series and I think UD takes home a big W.
3-Unit Play. Take #598 Texas A&M (-3) over Texas
2.5-Unit Play. Take #573 Nebraska (+4.5) over Missouri
2.5-Unit Play. Take #562 TCU (+3) over UNLV
Here we are looking for a let down out of the Rebels and a bounce back out of the Horned Frogs. UNLV is coming off an emotional win at San Diego in a game in which they shot 50 percent from the field. I don’t see either of those feats being repeated – neither the win nor the hot shooting. After a blowout win over Minnesota they barely beat Colorado State. After a huge win over BYU they squeaked by Wyoming. Now I see a similar letdown and TCU is going to win this one outright. They are 8-2 ATS against conference foes and 6-1 ATS at home. The Rebels have been a strong road team but they failed to cover their last two trips as a road chalk.
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Cincinnati (+19) over West Virginia AND Take Mississippi (-0.5) over Vanderbilt
The Bearcats have been a fantastic underdog, going 11-2 ATS as a puppy since early December. West Virginia has to be smarting a bit from their tough loss at home to Georgetown and if they aren’t their best I won’t be surprised. WVU is 0-3 in the last month as a double-digit favorite. The Mountaineer have a penchant for letting teams back in games and the Bearcats won’t quit. I think they sneak in the back door here.
Ole Miss is sensational at home and Vanderbilt struggles on the road. This number is climbing, and the game loses its value at around -6. If you can still pick up Ole Miss -5 then I would say to go for a straight play and toss DePaul in this teaser.
BeatYourBookie
NCAA Basketball
100* Play Kansas State (+7) over Kansas.
Kansas State is 17-5 ATS vs. conference opponents the last 3 seasons
Kansas State is 10-2 ATS when playing in the month of January
Kansas State is 9-1 SU over the last 10 games
50* Play Texas (+3.5) over Texas A&M
Texas is 26-11 ATS coming off 2 or more consecutive UNDER the totals
Texas is 9-2 ATS coming off 2 wins or more vs. conference opponents
Texas is 17-4 SU vs. Texas A&M since 1997
Gina - Sports Rumble
Miami Heat (9-34) at Orlando Magic (28-18)
Miami continues to struggles, playing horrible and averaging just 93.4 points per game. The Heat lost the last two clashes versus Miami in Orlando, 120-99 and 94-68. Take the Magic at home. Orlando is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings and is 4-1 both straight-up and against the spread at home.
Orlando Magic -12
Sacramento Kings -6
Mr.A's
Raptors -5
New Orleans Hornets -8½
Utah Jazz -12½
Johnny Guild
NBA Selection
Charlotte Bobcats (18-27) at Sacramento Kings (19-24)
The Kings have been in command over the Bobcats in Sacramento. They have won and covered the spread in the last 6 meetings at Arco Arena. Take the Kings. Charlotte has been a pitiable road team, just 4-13 away from home thus far this season.
Sacramento Kings - 6
CBB
Georgetown Hoyas -10
Mississippi Rebels -5
Doc's CBB
4 Unit Play. #530 Take Maryland -6.5 over Virginia
Both teams have faltered during ACC Play as both teams are under the .500 mark. The Cavaliers are coming off a tough overtime loss to Georgia Tech on Sunday and that was emotionally draining for them and they will not have much left in the tank for tonight’s game @ Comcast Center. Maryland needs this win more because it is at home and will get it by double digits.
4 Unit Play. #537 Wilmington +8 ½ over Old Dominion
I truly believe the wrong team was favored on a neutral court, Wilmington will be a slight favorite. The Monarchs are just 2-2 @ the Convocation Center. The Seahawks are great balance and this game will go down to the wire giving us the cash with whomever comes out on top.
5 Unit Play. #572 Take Drake -4 ½ over Creighton
The Bulldogs continue to get very little respect despite emerging at the top of the standing in a very down Missouri Valley Conference this year. That being said, 18-1 is still remarkable and we will take advantage of a soft number considering Drake has already beaten Creighton once this year. The Blue Jays are coming off a disappointing loss to Southern Illinois scoring just 44 points and turning the ball over 18 times. They face a much better team on Wednesday and we collect with another top play winner behind Klayton Korver and company. Only three of the Bulldogs victories have come under tonight’s posted number.
4 Unit Play. #573 Take Nebraska +5 ½ Missouri
This is a play against Missouri, as all everything player Stefhon Hannah suffered a fractured jaw outside a night club over the weekend. Four other players are suspended for this game as well and this is just what the doctored ordered for the weak Cornhuskers to get back on track. Nebraska has won the last three meetings with Missou.
4 Unit Play. #582 Take Houston +9 ½ over Memphis
All season long many believed this would be the game that would trip up the Tigers in their undefeated season and getting close to double-digits is too good to pass up for the home squad Cougars. Houston has just one loss at Hofheinz Pavilion and can score points at will and thus will be able to make a comeback if Memphis jumps out on them early. Houston is coming off a 14 made three pointer performance and that alone can keep them in this game tonight.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS
3-Unit Play. #573 Take Nebraska +5 over Missouri
Without five key players due to suspension, I have a hard time seeing how the short-handed Tigers are going to put together a strong effort here. Gone is leading scorer and assist man Stefhon Hannah, and as a whole over 40 points and 14 rebounds. Nebraska should have a good opportunity for a road conference victory, and the inside presence of Alex Maric will help carry the Cornhuskers to the win in Columbia.
3-Unit Play. #587 Take Syracuse PK over DePaul
Syracuse almost found a victory at Georgetown last Monday in D.C. This time around I like the 'Cuse's chances to prevail, coming through in Chicago. The Orange are in need of a quality road victory, and any win away from home in the Big East qualifies as that. Led by the dynamic duo of freshman Flynn and Green, look for Syracuse to cash over DePaul.
3-Unit Play. #595 Take Seton Hall PK over Rutgers
In this toss-up, I'll roll with the more consistent, higher paced Pirates. Seton Hall has done a good job turning around its program under Bobby Gonzalez. The Hall have a lot of depth scoring wise, and this team's ability to balance out its attack offensively will be the difference. Seton Hall scores the win here.
BEN BURNS
CBB
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Game: St. Josephs vs. George Washington Game Time: 1/30/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: George Washington Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGE WASHINGTON. The Colonials have really struggled on the road. However, they've also been tough at home, going 5-2 overall, including 2-0 ATS in their conference home games. As coach Karl Hobbs noted: "At home, we're fine. The question is when we go on the road..." In their most recent game here, the Colonials covered vs. a strong Xavier team, losing by eight points. Prior to that, they crushed St Louis, holding the Billikens to a mere 20 points. Looking back further and we find the Colonials at 21-3 SU and 14-8-2 ATS their last 24 home lined games. During that stretch, they've gone 32-10 SU their last 42 conference games. While this year's squad isn't as strong as they've been in the past, as evidenced by the result vs. St. Louis, the Colonials have done an excellent job at playing defense here at home, while controlling the tempo. Indeed, in seven games here, they're allowing an average of just 54 points. St. Joseph's has managed to win three of its last four games. However, two of those victories came by four points or less and they were just 1-3 ATS during that stretch. The Hawks are a solid and balanced team and it appears that they'll be making some noise in the Atlantic-10 this season. That being said, they're coming off an exciting 1-point win at Temple and have a trio of huge games on deck in their near future. That starts with the "Holy War" vs. Villanova (Feb. 2) and includes trips to vastly improved Duquesne (Feb. 6) and then to fellow A-10 power Xavier on February 10. In other words, I feel that it may be easy to get caught looking past tonight's "lesser" opponent. That will prove costly though as the Colonials have won five of the past six series meetings with the lone loss coming by just six points. Look for the Colonials to effectively slow down the pace of the game as they continue their strong play on this court and in this series, earning us at least the cover. *Atlantic 10 GOW
BEN BURNS
HOCKEY
ATLANTA
Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Atlanta Thrashers Game Time: 1/30/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Thrashers Reason: I'm laying the price with ATLANTA. The home team has won both meetings so far this season. The Penguins won at Pittsburgh back in November while the Thrashers returned the favor at Atlanta earlier this month. I expect home ice to be the difference again this evening. Dating back to 2005, the Thrashers are 4-1 (+2.1) the last five times they hosted the Penguins. Tonight, the well-rested Thrashers will be facing a Pittsburgh team which is still without star Sidney Crosby and which is coming off an upset win at New Jersey last night. Note that the Pens are just 6-14 the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games, most recently losing 4-2 vs. the Islanders. The Pens are also just 43-63 the past few seasons when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. Having closed out the first half on a losing streak, the Thrashers should be extremely motivated. Look for a huge effort as the Thrashers 'get back on track,' continuing their recent home ice success in this series and picking up a much-needed two points. *Personal Favorite
BEN BURNS
NBA
PHILADELPHIA
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 1/30/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. Both these teams have struggled this season and both have similar records. However, in addition to having homecourt advantage, the scheduling situation strongly favors the home team this evening. While the 76ers haven't played since an upset win at Charlotte Saturday, the Bucks come off a hard-fought loss vs. New Jersey last night. Note that the Bucks are just 6-14 SU and 7-12-1 ATS the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games, most recently getting crushed by 31 points by the Raptors. This is more than just your typical "back to back situation" though. Indeed, the Bucks will now be playing their 7th game in the past 10 nights. It doesn't get much more gruelling than that in this league and I expect the banged-up Bucks, who will still be without leading-scorer Redd, to be an extremely weary bunch tonight. The Bucks shot just 37.5 percent last night, while losing for the eighth time in 11 games overall. Note that they have averaged only 83.5 points in their last four road games, more than 10 points below their overall average. Not surprisingly, they were 0-4 ATS in those games, losing by an average of nearly 16 points per game. The 76ers will have payback on their minds, as they've been beaten by the Bucks in both this season's previous meetings. Note that the 76ers are 8-5 ATS this season when attempting to avenge a home loss and 10-6 ATS the last 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. The 76ers played very well in their win at Charlotte, which has become a fairly difficult venue. Andre Iguodala, who has scored at least 20 in four straight games vs. the Bucks, scored 33 points, while Andre Miller added 23. As coach Maurice Cheeks said. "Our guys hang in there. They keep fighting. They never stop. At some point it's going to turn for us if we keep playing the way we're playing." Look for them to be both the "fresher" and the hungrier team tonight, as they avenge the earlier losses in convincing fashion. *Eastern Conference GOW
UNDER Washington/Toronto
Game: Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 1/30/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Washington and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. I lost on the "under" when these teams faced each other yesterday. That was an unfortunate break as the game would have stayed below the number if the Raptors hadn't hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime. I don't think that we'll be seeing another overtime game today and with the teams playing the second of back to back games, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring contest. The UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that the Wizards played the second of back to back games. Those four games averaged just 177 points. Note that the Wizards, already without Arenas, will still be without leading scorer Caron Butler. Andray Blatche did an excellent job in replacing Butler, scoring 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting, in only his second start of the season. However, with the Raptors ready for him, I feel that it's fairly unlikely that he'll hit 2/3 of his shots again tonight. Note that the Raptors have played superb defense in each of their last two home games. Indeed, they held Atlanta to 78 points two games ago and then followed that up by allowing Milwaukee to score a mere 75 in their most recent game here. Including those results, the Raptors have now held 10 of their last 13 opponents here to double-digits in scoring. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is now a highly profitable 13-5 their last 18 games here. Sam Mitchell wasn't pleased with his team's defense last night. Look for his club to bounce back with a much better effort on that side of the ball this evening, continuing their recent run of low-scoring games on this floor. *Eastern Conf. TOM
Bob Akmens
Central Florida -3.0
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows:
UAB is especially poor in these point spread categories:
8-16 LAST 24 AS A DOG
2-6 LAST 8 AS A ROAD DOG GETTING 3 POINTS OR LESS
5-15 LAST 20 VS. A TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD AFTER AT LEAST 15 GAMES
CENTRAL FLORIDA excels in these categories:
5-2 LAST 7 AS A FAVORITE
10-3 LAST 13 COMING OFF A LOSS TO A CONFERENCE RIVAL
GO WITH CENTRAL FLORIDA -3 IN THIS 700PM EST MATCHUP.
Mike Rose
Portland Trail Blazers -3.0
We’ve got some cross-conference action going late tonight when the (24-19) Cleveland Cavaliers invade the Rose Garden to take on the (26-18) Portland Trailblazers. Cleveland currently sits 7-games in back of the Central Division leading Detroit Pistons, while the Trailblazers find themselves half a game in back of the Northwest Division leading Utah Jazz. The Cavs sport an 11-12 SU mark on the road, but they’ve won 5 of their L/6 both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Portland has made the most of their home contests this season by going a stellar 18-4 SU and 15-7 ATS.
We last saw the Cavaliers in action Sunday afternoon when they knocked off the LA Lakers 98-95 in the Staples Center. Lebron stole the show with 41 points and 9 boards, but a number of his teammates stepped up late in the 4th quarter to help the Cavs secure the outright victory. The defending Eastern Conference champs have won 8 of their L/10 SU, and have fared well against the Western Conference against the spread this season going a combined 11-8. They’re 4-1 ATS their L/5 against the Western Conference, and 5-1 ATS their L/6 against the Northwest Division.
Portland has fizzled out of late, but they’re coming off an enormous come-from-behind victory their last time out when they battled back from a 15-point deficit at the half to grab the 94-93 SU home win against Atlanta. However, they haven’t defeated a +.500 team since January 9th at home against Golden State. Their L/10 games have seen them go 5-5 SU but 4-6 ATS. They will have had two full days now to get reaclimated to their surroundings after playing seven in a row on the road before hosting both Houston and Atlanta. They’re 4-2 ATS this season on 2 days rest, and 11-3 ATS at home their L/14 games.
Oddsmakers have deemed the Blazers 3-points better then Cleveland in this spot with the ‘Total’ set at 186. The Cavs are a combined 28-17 (62%) ATS on the road vs. +.500 Western conference opponents, while the Blazers are also a solid 28-14 (67%) ATS combined at home vs. +.500 Eastern Conference opponents. This series has been dominated by the favorite as its cashed in 9 of the L/11 meetings. The Cavs are 5-2 ATS in their L/7 meetings with the Blazers, but backing them in the Rose Garden has been a losing proposition that’s seen the Cavs only cash 1 ticket in their L/7 visits.
Jeff Alexander
NBA
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -1
The Hawks will take this one against a Clippers team which is playing like it is already cashing in the season for the lottery. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific. The Clippers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southeast, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Hawks!
Comps
Marco D'Angelo
Duquesne -5.5
Matty O'Shea
PICK: Knicks/Jazz OVER 206
Ben Burns
PICK: Toronto Raptors
JWhip
Cleveland Cavaliers +3
JB
Atlanta Hawks -1.5