Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report
CBB
Wednesday: Play Against CBB favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points a team with a >=+11 PPG differential against a team with a +/- 3.5 PPG differential after 15+ games, after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game 36-10 ATS the last 5 seasons (78.3%) PLAY Iowa +7.5
Matt Fargo
Duke vs. North Carolina
Play: Duke +4
This is the game of the year so far in college hoops as only three points separates these teams coming into this game with undefeated records. Duke lost its only game on a neutral floor by a single point against Pittsburgh while the Tar Heels lost by a bucket at home against Maryland. Both teams come in hot with several big wins of late but the edge goes to the Blue Devils even though this game is in Chapel Hill. Duke is a perfect 4-0 in true road games, winning those games by an average of 12.3 ppg.
The Tar Heels have already lost one at home and they have been taken to the brink in a lot more games than Duke has. Four of their last eight games have been decided by two points or fewer or gone into overtime and even though three of those were on the road, the strength of the Duke team neutralizes that aspect of it. North Carolina is hurting as well in the backcourt. Bobby Frasor is already out for the season while Ty Lawson was hurt in the last game, is questionable and not even close to 100 percent.
While North Carolina is all about offense, the Blue Devils have a defense than can create problems. Duke’s perimeter defense has limited all seven ACC opponents to four or less made three-point field goals. Duke has allowed four or less treys in 13 of the 20 games this season and is second in the ACC in three-point field goal percentage defense at just 30 percent. That drops to 28.6 percent against ACC opponents and just 25.9 percent in its road games on the season.
Duke's perimeter pressure has been good enough to deny entry passes against bigger teams all season. Tyler Hansbrough, despite a big game against Florida St., had trouble getting the ball against the Seminoles after Lawson's exit. With the point guard likely absent or not his usual self if he can go, North Carolina becomes more vulnerable to giving the ball away. The Blue Devils are averaging an ACC high 10.3 steals per game in league play. Duke has 10 or more steals in five of seven ACC contests.
The Blue Devils have won 23 of their last 33 games when both teams have been ranked in the top 10 and Duke falls into a great situation based on the elite status of both and the Tar Heels recent play. Play against favorites in a game involving two teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more ppg in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 80 points or more three straight games. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons including 20 wins in the last 24 instances over the last three years. Play Duke Blue Devils 1 Unit
Matt Fargo split his releases on Tuesday, winning with Purdue and dropping the Northern Illinois game and he is back on Wednesday to get it all back! He remains hot as he heads into tonight with more profits on the way! A huge release highlights the card as the CAA Game of the Month is backed by 35-8 ATS (81.4%) combined Team Angles! Get on this one now!
Tony George
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play:Los Angeles Lakers -5
Looks like a set up line, but with Pau Gasol in the line-up for LA they are now a potential Western Conference finalist. Once Bynum comes back, they are certified for real. LA is 3rd in scoring in the NBA and with Fisher back at point, these guys can run the triangle offense to perfection with a strong forward and Kobe. Actually Lamar Odom is playing well as of late which is a bonus for the Lakers. LA has won their last 3 road games by 20, 12 and 15 points. Atlanta has allowed 51% from the floor on defesne in their last 5 games and that spells doom.
Free Play on the Lakers tonight. LA 107 Atlanta 99
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on LA Lakers -4.5
I know it's tough to play back-to-back nights and the Hawks have been decent at home, but Kobe and the Lakers had a fairly easy go of it last night in New Jersey and will have enough left in their tanks to come away with a comfortable win in the ATL tonight. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on zero days rest. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Gasol stepped right in and looked great in his Lakers debut and we expect more of the same from him tonight. Take the Lakers.
Ben Burns
Game: New Orleans Hornets at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
Reason: The Suns look like they may have landed themselves a "big man" (Shaq) in the middle. Tonight, however, their focus will be on getting some "payback" against a team which has already beaten them twice this season. That includes a three-point loss at New Orleans in mid-December and a six-point loss here at Phoenix in early January. The Suns were favored by nine points for that game, despite the fact that the Hornets were in the middle of a run which saw them win 12 of 13. The Hornets have cooled off, going 0-3 SU/ATS their last games, yet tonight's line is significantly lower. I feel that gives us excellent line value with the home team. Note that despite their recent success, the Hornets remain a money-burning 18-33 ATS the last few seasons when listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. During that stretch, the Suns were 46-27-2 ATS the past few seasons when playing with "revenge," including a 17-9-1 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a home loss. Nash knows the importance of this game and was quoted as saying: "It's very important, that's a team that we haven't beaten yet. It's a team that's in second place and it's a double win right there..." The Suns' last three victories have all come by double-digits while the Hornets' last three losses have come by a minimum of nine points. Consider laying the points.
Robert Ross
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
Reason: Atlanta has enough depth, rebounding, scoring and athleticism to make things tough for the new look Lakers here. They played last night, Kobe jammed a finger and they'll need more time to get in sync with Gasol. Last night's win over a dysfunctional New Jersey team didn't prove anything. Take Atlanta!
Frank Rosenthal
NBA
701 Lakers-4.5
Under 204.5
709 Pacers Over 204.5
711 Heat+16.5
718 Suns-5
College
730 Syracuse-3
731 Georgia Tech Over 149
744 Oklahoma-2
751 Maryland Pk
Under 146.5
757 Fsu+5
767 Nd Pk
776 Auburn+3.5
786 Bradley-6
792 Ncu-3.5
Under 164
Tom Stryker
4* Kent St -16
BIG AL
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New Orleans.
Phoenix
Oklahoma
Georgia
Utah
ATS Consultants
Hoops
Best Bet (3 units)
Miss State over Alabama 79-63
Rick Stansbury has quietly got this thing turned around in Starkville. Jamont Gordon leads the team and is one of the top wings in the SEC. Charles Rhodes cleans the glass for the Bulldogs, who are off to a 5-0 start in the league and are looking to prove themselves against a mediocre, but dangerous Alabama team.
Preferred Plays (2 units)
NY Knicks over Inidana 98-86
Oklahoma over Texas 78-71
Duke covers over UNC 92-94
Hockey
Preferred Play
Over in the Buff/NJ game
InfoPlays
3* on Utah -3.5
The Utah Utes are in desperate need of a big home win over UNLV tonight to bulk up their tournament resume. Utah’s 8-3 home record can be attributed to their defense allowing just 56.8 points per game. They are winning their home games by 12 points per contest. Utah has won 7 out of their last 9 home games against UNLV. Utah is 42-21 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game since 1997. Utah has a knack for knocking off good teams at home over the years. The odds makers are right on the money when listing the Utes as the favorite Wednesday. Bet Utah at home.
Wunderdog
Old Dominion at Northeastern (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Northeastern -1 (-110)
ODU is 8-4 at home but just 3-6 on the road. They have been known for defense this season but right now it's Northeastern who is playing tenacious D. The Huskies have held each of their last two opponents to the 40s on a combined 30-103 shooting effort from the field. Did they play cupcakes? Did they have easy home games? No on both fronts. Northeastern was road underdogs in both games but won both outright convincingly.Now they go home where they are 4-2 on the season. They will have the confidence here to be aggressive again and limit ODU's offensive success.The Monarchs are off a great shooting game in which they hit 55.1% from the field and scored 73 points. However, this team is 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games coming off a 55%+ performance. Northeastern is 7-0 ATS in home games in February dating back to last season and we like them to win and cover here as well.
PricelessPicks
1 Unit on Sacramento -9
The Kings are clearly a different team with health on their side. They have won 4 straight games and 7 of their last 9 and I look for them to crush Seattle tonight. The Sonics had a nice little run going until they went down against the Bulls. Heading out on the road with no momentum will not play in Seattle 's favor. Seattle is 4-19 on the road this season and only 8-15 ATS in those games. The Sonics are 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season and 0-7 ATS in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. Lay the points.
Marco D'Angelo
PICK: Duquesne -1
Matty O'Shea
PICK: Jazz/Nuggets OVER 219
Ben Burns
PICK: Bulls/Warriors OVER
JWhip
Duke +4
JB
Spurs/Wizards UNDER 184
FERRINGO
3.5-Unit Play. Take #724 Duquesne (-1) over St. Joseph’s
This is a great letdown spot to get in on against a team we've been riding for a month. St. Joe's will be without forward Ahmad Nivins, is coming off a blowout win over a rival Villanova, and is headed to Xavier for a huge game this weekend. That all makes this the perfect trap in Duquesne, a team that plays 10-deep and will be amped up for
2.5-Unit Play. Take #750 Bowling Green (-2.5) over Central Michigan
Louis Orr seems to have his boys headed in the right direction, as the Falcons have won three of their last four and have played very well at home over the past month. Bowling Green already has three-point home wins over Miami, OH and Ohio, two teams that are better than shaky Central Michigan. CMU has been an underachiver for most of the year and is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10. The Chips have lost their last five road games by an average of 15 points apiece. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the home team is 7-1 ATS in this series.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #786 Bradley (-6) over Missouri State
Note: This was bumped from a 2.0 Unit play.
Daniel Ruffin's return has made all the difference and suddenly the Braves are a sleeper in the Missouri Valley. Bradley has covered four straight since regaining its top player and this team is still exceptional at home. Conversely, Missouri State has a lot of problem playing away from home (1-10), shooting under 30 percent from deep for the season on the road. The home team is 7-1 ATS in this series, Bradley is 39-19 ATS at home and SMS is 7-19 ATS in its last 26.
2-Unit Play. Take #730 Syracuse (-3) over Connecticut
Unranked team as a home favorite against a ranked team.
2-Unit Play. Take #744 Oklahoma (-2.5) over Texas
Unranked team as a home favorite against a ranked team.
2-Unit Play. Take #770 Georgia (-3.5) over Vanderbilt
Unranked team as a home favorite against a ranked team.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #758 Miami (PK) over Florida State AND Take #791 Duke (+8.5) over North Carolina
Note: This is a 4.5-point teaser.
2-Unit Play. Take #783 Nebraska (+10.5) over Kansas State
This play on Nebraska and the play on Tulsa are reverse line movement plays. Nearly 90 percent of the public is on Kansas State tonight and the line has already dropped a full point. The Wildcats are stellar underneath and shouldn't lose this game, but I think they could struggle a bit. I am not high on this KSU team at all and their spotty guard play still makes them a dicey bet.
2-Unit Play. Take #773 Tulsa (+9) over Houston
1.5-Unit Play. Take #798 Baylor (-7.5) over Texas Tech
I liked this matchup even before the Bobby Knight debacle. Baylor was coming off a tough loss at Texas and should have a little more zip in their step when the Red Raiders come to down. Texas Tech has been an awful road team - even with the elder Knight at the helm.
That's it for today. Good luck.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets +5.5
The New Orleans Hornets have already beaten the Phoenix Suns twice this season including a 118-113 road win their last meeting. Now there is turmoil in Phoenix with the big trade that is supposed to bring Shaq to town while the Suns give the Heat Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks in return. If Marion plays tonight, his heart will not be 100% into this game. The Hornets will be fighting extremely hard for a win after losing 3 consecutive games now. New Orleans is 15-7 ATS in all road games this season. New Orleans is 13-3 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with New Orleans as the underdog.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Wake Forest -2
Wake Forest has yet to lose at home this season. At 12-0 on the year, Wake Forest is a great free pick as they take on Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is giving up 79 points per game on the road this season. Wake Forest is yielding just 60 points per game at home. Georgia Tech is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. Georgia Tech is 2-10 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Wake Forest remains undefeated at home. Take Wake Forest and lay the points.
DOC'S
4 Unit Play. #735 Take Ball State +16 over Kent State
This is a mismatch in talent, but the Cardinals have been playing better of late and have not be blown out in a game since January 16th. They have lost four straight, but only one game has come by over ten points. The Flashes are coming off a tough loss against Toledo and will come out flat on Wednesday and allow Kent State to hang it this game for 40 minutes before losing by just 10 points.
4 Unit Play. #758 Take Miami -4 ½ over Florida State
Both teams have struggled during ACC Conference play but the Hurricanes still have an outstanding record when playing at the BankUnited Center. They are currently 10-1 and played pretty well @ Duke over the weekend. Tonight they will take it to their in-state rival and give us the cash.
5 Unit Play. #769 Take Vanderbilt +4 over Georgia
The Dawgs sit at the bottom of the SEC East Standing and really have trouble scoring the basketball and putting up points. They have lost three straight games and not reached the sixties in two of this contests. Vandy has played a tough schedule this season and will be able to knock off Georgia and win this game straight-up.
4 Unit Play. #775 Take Kentucky -3 over Auburn
The Cats are starting to put it together under their new coach and have dominated Auburn over the coarse of time winning 81 of the 98 all-time meetings. Kentucky plays outstanding defense and once they get a lead, they will be able to cruise to victory. They have won three straight games against Tennessee, South Carolina, and Georgia and those three are all better teams that what they will see tonight from the Tigers.
4 Unit Play. #786 Take Bradley -6 1/2 over Missouri State
This is more a play against the Bears, who are terrible when the game does not take place @ the Hammond Center. The Braves were hit hard by injuries earlier this season, but are now healthy and have won five straight games. Bradley is a great three point shooting team and because of that will be able to reach 90 points this evening and thus be able to cover this touchdown spread. Jeremy Crouch will come up big yet again propelling the Braves to victory. Missouri State is just 1-8 on the road this season.
4 Unit Play. #792 Take North Carolina -4 over Duke
This is the game we have all been waiting for and it has nothing to do with the players on the court. Loud month Dick Vitale will make his debut for ESPN tonight when two of the top three squads in the nation square off at the Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC. The line is low because Ty Lawson probably will not play, but Carolina has been blowing teams out at home all season long. The best player on the floor is Tyler Hansbrough and I do not think Duke has an answer for him inside. This should be an exciting game to watch and both teams can score points and thus UNC will be able to cover in this contest. Carolina beat Duke twice last season and tonight will complete the trifecta.
4 Unit Play. #801 Take Wilmington +1 ½ over Delaware
This is a play against the Blue Hens who after a hot start have fallen flat losing five out of six games including three straight. Wilmington has dominated this series winning 12 of the 15 match-ups and will jump on Delaware early and watch them throw in the towel on a season that started off so well.