Black Widow Sports Picks
1* on Notre Dame +5.5
Notre Dame will put a halt to this Uconn winning streak tonight. Notre Dame has the big men inside to be productive against the Huskies’ bigs and they can also hit the 3-pointer to weaken Uconn’s zone defense. Notre Dame is averaging 81 points per game, shooting 41 % from 3-point range and shooting a nice 74% from the free throw line. You don’t find many teams in the land putting up these kinds of numbers. Notre Dame has won 5 straight games now since losing to Georgetown. Uconn has won 7 straight games, but you have to understand that 5 of those wins came by 5 points or less. This is going to be a close one, but the Fighting Irish will pull it out in the end. Uconn is 0-6 ATS after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more over the last 3 seasons. The Huskies won’t be able to dominate the boards tonight. Take Notre Dame and the points.
Wunderdog
Syracuse at South Florida
Pick: Syracuse -4.5
South Florida's transition into the Big East has been a nightmare. They are just 5-38 SU, and have lost 10 straight this season. They have been awful in this spot as they have posted an 0-8 ATS mark when getting 5.5 or less at home. They have been getting blown out at home this season against the upper-tier of the conference. After opening with a win over Rutgers they have now gone down at home by double-digits to every team, and Syracuse should continue that streak. The Cuse at 16-8, sits firmly on the bubble for the NCAA tournament and a bad performance here could spell doom as the Orange have games remaining with Georgetown,Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette and Pittsburgh. They certainly know what lies ahead, so this game will not be taken lightly.
Wunderdog
Sacramento at Houston
Pick: Houston -8.5
The Rockets are on fire right now. They stand at 16-3 in their last 19 and have rattled off seven straight while covering six and are 14-6 ATS in their last 20. They also have the revenge factor in their favor as they will try to avenge an earlier loss to the Kings. Their last three wins, all at home, have resulted in double-digit margins. The Kings are on the down-swing after a 10-4 run, their best of the season, but have since been just 1-3. This is still a team that has only won on the road seven times all year and has lost nine of these road games to teams .500+ by double-digits. Think the Rockets are in the zone right now andanother double-digit win is in order.
Black Magic Sports
NCAA Basketball
5 Unit Black Magic CBB Underdog of the Year on Houston +16
The Houston Cougars will give Memphis a run for their money tonight. The #1 Tigers have cruised to a perfect record to this point. Houston did give them a bit of a scare in a 12-point loss earlier this season. We feel Houston will make the proper adjustments the second time around to give Memphis an even bigger scare tonight, easily staying within the number. Houston is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making better than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Memphis shoots well from the field, but not from the stripe. Look for Houston to not allow easy buckets tonight and send a terrible free throw shooting team to the line. They simply have to considering Memphis makes just 58% of their free throw attempts. Cash in with Houston as the underdog.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Northern Iowa -7
Northern Iowa already won at Wichita State by 7 points earlier this season. Now they get the same team at home, and do we do not expect a letdown considering UNI is coming off back-to-back road losses. The Panthers will be hungry to blow Wichita State out of the water again. Northern Iowa is 9-4 at home while Wichita State is 3-8 on the road. UNI is 6-3 SU and ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Wichita State. Wichita State is 9-20 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Northern Iowa as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Missouri State +7
Missouri State should not be catching 7 points against Illinois State Wednesday. Illinois State attempts far too many outside shots to completely dominate this one and Missouri State capitalizes against these kinds of teams. Missouri State is 19-3 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 18 free throws/game after 15+ games since 1997. Missouri State will get to the line more often which will be a great result in the end for us tonight. Cash in with Missouri State as the underdog.
NBA:
3 Unit Sharp Play on New Jersey Nets +9
New Jersey is catching nearly double-digit points tonight. This comes despite the Nets winning 3 straight games now including a 19-point victory over a very good Dallas Mavericks team. The Toronto Raptors are not capable of covering this large number tonight. New Jersey is back to playing team basketball and are 18-7 ATS after a game with 30 or more assists over the last 3 seasons. New Jersey is 19-6 ATS in road games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with New Jersey as the underdog.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Magic/Nuggets UNDER 218.5
The final score of this game won’t touch the number that odds makers have set before us. The Denver Nuggets just played last night, so you can bet they will be playing on tired legs in this one. Orlando head coach Stan Van Gundy criticized Dwight Howard’s defense after a bad home loss to the Cleveland Cavs in their last game. We expect Howard and his teammates to respond and limit the Nuggets to under 100 points tonight. Orlando is 18-5 UNDER in home games after 2 or more consecutive OVERS over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with the UNDER 218.5 points.
Master Sports
4* LA Clip
Trace Fields
4* UConn
Josh Dean
15* Cavs +2.5
10* St. John +7
Free B: Indiana -1
Wunderdog NBA 5 unit pick today
Game: Memphis at Philadelphia
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia -9.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
We had the Grizzlies last night as a home dog, and they came through to win outright, but tonight we go against them. Even with Gasol, the Grizzlies were 4-19 on the road and in the 19 losses, 12 of them have come by 11 points or more - they just haven't been competitive. They have lost each of their last four on the road by at least 11 points. They have not responded well coming off a home win as a dog, as the last two times they went on the road they lost by 18 and 27 points. The Sixers are playing better now than they have at any point this season, and have not failed to cover in each of their last eight games and have won four straight. Their last three games against teams with a losing record have resulted in 21, 17 and 43-point wins. These teams are heading in opposite directions, so we will go with the hot hand and back the Sixers here.
Game: San Antonio at Cleveland
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 180.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)
We watched these teams go at it last year in the NBA Finals and they play ugly defensive games. They played four games in the playoffs, two in the regular season and four of the six failed to get out of the 160s, and the average of the six games was 166.1 points per game. Their matchup earlier this year was also another UNDER. San Antonio has played 16 games against the NBA's top 12 defensive teams, in terms of points allowed, and have played 13-3 to the UNDER! Cleveland has been 12-4 to the UNDER against these same 12 teams. That is 27 UNDERS in 32 tries, and head-to-head these teams have played very low scoring games. This one is going to be ugly and low scoring once again.
Game: Sacramento at Houston
Pick: 3 units on Houston -8.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Rockets are on fire right now. They stand at 16-3 in their last 19 and have rattled off seven straight while covering six and are 14-6 ATS in their last 20. They also have the revenge factor in their favor as they will try to avenge an earlier loss to the Kings. Their last three wins, all at home, have resulted in double-digit margins. The Kings are on the down-swing after a 10-4 run, their best of the season, but have since been just 1-3. This is still a team that has only won on the road seven times all year and has lost nine of these road games to teams .500+ by double-digits. Think the Rockets are in the zone right now and another double-digit win is in order.
Frank Rosenthal
NBA HOOPS
515 HORNETS-6
518 WOLVES+9
OVER 200
524 WARRIORS-1.5
OVER 232
530 INDIANA U-3.5
532 DUKE-11
OVER 157
546 SO FL+5
557 ND+5.5
OVER 150
570 FLORIDA-13
598 TEXAS TECH+2.5
604 NW+9
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* Maryland
2. 50,000* Duquesne
3. 50,000* Drake
4. 50,000* Warriors
1. Maryland- Shame on you if you haven't been watching this Terrapins team over their last 4 games! Since losing to Duke 93-84 on their home floor, Maryland has reeled off 4 wins in a row SUATS, including outstanding road efforts at Georgia Tech and Boston College! Now its payback time, as the Blue Devils are excellent at Cameron Indoor, and most likely win this game, but not be nearly as much as Vegas wants you to believe, and I'll prove it to you...
First and foremost, Its hard to ignore the outstanding play guard Greivis Vasquez over the Terrapins 4-game win streak. When he's not scoring 25 like he did versus Virginia or at Boston College, he's dishing out 15 assists like he did against N.C. State! Guys, this Maryland offense is firing on all cylinders because of Vasquez, averaging 82 ppg on a ridiculous 54% shooting (43% from 3-point) over their last 5 games!
Second, while both defenses are solid, I have several issues with the Blue Devils defense. First, they allow opponents to shoot almost 45% at Cameron Indoor, which against an offense like Maryland could easily cost them the game. Also, Duke does a good job of masking their weak interior with great perimeter players. But, the fact of the matter is forward James Gist and Bambale Osby should have a field day down-low on both ends of the court. Between the two of them, they have more blocks (105) than the entire Blue Devils roster combined (97)!
Finally, you know there's a couple games coach Gary Williams circles on his calendar every year - North Carolina and Duke. The Terrapins already went into Chapel Hill and beat the Tarheels outright 82-80! If oddsmakers think that a surging Maryland team, in payback mode, should be double-digit dogs in this spot, that's their prerogative. I couldn't disagree more, as I can easily see the Terrapins keeping this game competitive, especially under the circumstances mentioned above.
Bottom line, expect a high-scoring ACC showdown tonight in Durham, but in the end, the Blue Devils defense has too many holes to slow the dynamic and red-hot Terrapins offense. Also, there's no question after losing to these very same Blue Devils at College Park a little over two weeks ago, that Maryland has a strong motivational edge here. Terrapins grab the cash at Camroon Indoor Wednesday!
Take Maryland plus the points over Duke as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Duquesne- While many still remember the Flyers 14-1 record and subsequent # 14 ranking in the nation, those days are long gone for this Dayton team. Injuries to their frontline, especially F Chris Wright, have hurt this team tremendously. While they've been able to maintain defensive integrity, their offense has not been able to recover from the loss of Wright, and that'll hurt them again tonight against a red-hot Dukes squad.
Speaking of red-hot, this Duquense offense put together two of the strongest offensive performances I've seen all year in back-to-back routs of St Joseph's and at La Salle, dropping 102 & 101 points respectively! And the scary part was they scored 101 points at La Salle without second-leading scorer and leading distributor Kojo Mensah in the lineup! He'll be back tonight, and so will the Dukes offense!
Match ups are also an issue for the Flyers, who without Chris Wright have little to match up against an excellent Dukes frontline, led by ultra-athletic forward Shawn James and his 14 ppg, 7 boards/game, AND 88 blocks on the season! F Kieron Achara has also picked up his play recently, scoring 21 points and swatting 5 shots at La Salle! Brian Roberts may be the best offensive player on the court, but the Dukes have edges at almost every other position, plain and simple.
Bottom line, Dayton is clearly treading water without Chris Wright, and facing a suddenly surging Duquesne squad isn't going to help their troubles. Huge edges in the frontcourt, and the a high-octane Dukes offense led by Kojo Mensah can and will keep this game close, with the outright upset a definate possibility.
Take Duquesne plus the points over Dayton in this A-10 match up.
3. Drake- I've been listening to the media say all week: "If Drake is going to lose a conference game, its going to be at Southern Illinois Wednesday." Okay, but let me ask you one question: What has Drake done to make you think they'll lay an egg at the Salukis house tonight? Not only did they beat the Salukis by 10 in their own house, but they've won 21 straight games, going 16-5 ATS over that span, including 7-2 ATS over their last 9 road games!
Guys, if their outright road win at Illinois State 73-70 Tuesday wasn't good enough to convince you, then nothing will! Drake did it the same way they've done all season, with razor sharp offense, and rock-solid defense. Granted, the Redbirds shot 54% for the game, but in the second half, the Bulldogs came to life, limited them to 32 points, while dropping 44 of their own to get the outright road win.
Speaking of offense, therein lies the problem for the Salukis, for as good as their defense is at home, their offense is average at best, scoring just 60 ppg on 41% shooting over their last 5 games! That includes some real weak offensive efforts at home against Evansville (MVC doormat) and Creighton (not as good as Drake). Falker, Shaw, and Mullins are the core of the Salukis offense, but all three are inconsistent at times, and none of them are what you'd consider "goto" players.
Bottom line, the Bulldogs are simply the better team here. Yes, I know, they haven't won at Southern Illinois in 12 years, but when was the last time you remember a more complete, focused, and fundamentally sound Drake team coming into Carbondale?! Expect a competitive contest here, but in the end, the Bulldogs have proven time and again, trust them and they will deliver the cash!
Take Drake plus the points over Southern Illinois in this MVC match up.
4. Warriors- While we have yet to see the ramifications of the blockbuster trade made by the Suns, one thing we do know for sure is they'll miss Shawn Marion in tonight's high-octane game at Golden State.
Clearly, Marion was tired of being the "garbage man/third option" for the Suns, and he took his versatility and defensive toughness to South Beach. Now the Suns have to deal with having very little athleticism that's willing to play defense. In other words, you can count on Raja Bell, but Diaw, Stoudemire, Nash (getting old, too small), Hill (too old), and Barbosa among others are not the least bit interested in doing anything but putting up points, period.
In a game where points will be scored in bunches, its hard to imagine the Suns slowing the Warriors at any point in this game. Golden State is averaging a ridiculous 112 ppg in Oakland, and much like their last two meetings, I believe they'll simply outscore the Suns. 129-114 & 124-119 are the final scores of their last two meetings, both in Oakland, and I expect more of the same tonight.
Another huge factor to consider is the match ups, as the Suns no longer have Marion to slow down a red-hot Stephen Jackson, who dropped 41 points against a rock-solid Wizards defense two days ago. With Jackson playing well, the Warriors are extremely tough to beat, because their backcourt of Davis and Monta Ellis has been phenomenal this season.
Bottom line, this game is akin to a sprint, except the Warriors do it better, and don't have to deal with losing the most versatile player on their roster. Shawn Marion's absence is felt loud and clear tonight, stirring up speculation that the talented swingman was much more important than the Suns obviously gave him credit for. Golden State protects it's house and grabs the cash in this marquee Western Conference match up!
Take the Warriors at home over the Suns in this NBA showdown.
Wolkosky Milan
10* CHARLOTTE -1
10* MEMPHIS +9½
10* SACRAMENTO +9½
10* DEN/ORL UNDER 219½
10* POR/DAL UNDER 184½
Dave Malinsky comp 4* play
GAME: New Orleans Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks
PICK: New Orleans Hornets
Offered at: -5.5
REASON FOR PICK: 4* NEW ORLEANS over MILWAUKEE
On Monday in our RIM SHOTS column we focused on how we would be putting the Milwaukee Bucks under a microscope, now that they were finally getting a lot of injured players back in the lineup. One of the more intriguing remarks in that piece was coach Larry Krystowiak talking about how having everyone back could be both a blessing and a curse (”The same thing that will make you laugh will make you cry”), the latter in turns of finding enough playing time to keep everyone happy. Now one game later, an ugly loss to the lowly Clippers in which there was yet another late-game collapse, we see even more from Krystowiak that matters -
"I'm not going to sugarcoat it. We've got some agendas creeping in. Good teams don't have that. I'd be lying to say we're not down. There's no doubt about that. It's easy to start separating and it's happening. We need to put an end to it."
The frustrations are understandable – in back-to-back home losses to the Clippers and Knicks, the Bucks could manage only 32 4th quarter points combined against two of the weakest defenses in the league. But finding a fix may be a long way off. This looks like a team that has already mentally packed it in for the All Star break, and the reaction from point guard Maurice Williams to what Krystowiak said indicates as much -
"Like I said, everyone has a difference of opinion. He's entitled to his opinion. If that's the way he feels, that's the way he feels. That's his opinion and that's not necessarily true. That's an opinion and the way he sees things. He has a right to that opinion. Just like every other guy has the right to their own opinion. I'm not saying they're right and I'm not saying they're true. Some people's opinions are stronger than others, put it like that. … It's 15 different people, 15 different personalities, 15 different lifestyles and 15 different whatever. That's not even including the coaches. So obviously you're going to have a difference in opinion. There's only five people that can play and so many minutes to go around. ... That's the reality. We have to fight through it and try to stay together."
While the Bucks are having an awful time getting in sync, there is not a team in the league playing with a better chemistry than the Hornets. Having had two days off before last night’s win at Chicago we do not see any fatigue issues at all here; only a team on a winning streak that can fully exploit the very weaknesses that the Bucks are showing. Chris Paul should have no difficulty breaking down a defense that lacks cohesion, while an under-rated New Orleans defense (6th in the NBA in per-possession efficiency) puts the clamps down on the other end to gradually break this game open.
Marc Lawrence Big 12 Game of the Year
Analysis: Play On: Texas Tech
Note: Red Raiders make the home debut under new head coach Pat Knight in a great winning situation at the United Spirit Arena where they are 10-0 this season. For openers Tech takes the court with revenge from being eliminated from last year's Big 12 conference tourney by the Wildcats, a 66-45 defeat, the lowest point production of the season by the Raiders. Kansas State enters off a revenge win over Oklahoma State with another revenge game up next against Missouri. We like the fact that KSU is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after battling the Cowboys. And the fact that Texas Tech has never lost a Big 12 home game against the Wildcats, going 5-0 SU & ATS. The clincher comes from an Awesome Angle that supports winning teams as dogs off a loss against an opponent off win if the home team has won at least 30 of its previous 40 home games and won 20 or more games last season. These teams are 12-4 ATS since 1990, including 7-0 ATS if the opponent covered its last game by 5 or more points. Look for TTRR to make it a good Knight for Pat in his home debut this evening.
Texas Tech is our Big 12 Conference Game of the Year.
BURNS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Game: Drake vs. Southern Illinois Game Time: 2/13/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Southern Illinois Reason: I'm laying the points with SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. Drake comes in with the better record and higher ranking. However, there's a reason why Southern Illinois is the favorite. Indeed, the Salukis are 11-0 the last 11 times they hosted the Bulldogs. They're also an awesome 59-1 at SIU Arena vs. conference opponents since the start of the 2001-02 season. Not surprisingly, they've won 12 of their last 13 games when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. During that stretch the Salukis, who come off an ugly loss at Creighton, have won 10 of 15 when coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Looking back further and we find them at an impressive 45-20 SU when coming off a loss in conference play. The Bulldogs have certainly enjoyed great success in conference play. However, Southern Illinois is the one team in the Missouri Valley Conference that doesn't need to play much help defense against any foe, and that will help immensely against a Drake offense that relies on taking advantage of opponents' help on "cutters and drivers." The Salukis are not going to win the Valley title, which is a blow to the ego of this proud program. However, they can regain a little dignity by taking down Drake. Look for them to bounce back from the Creighton loss in a big way as they continue their excellent play on this floor and homecourt dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
CONNECTICUT
Game: Notre Dame vs. Connecticut Game Time: 2/13/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Connecticut Reason: I'm laying the points with CONNECTICUT. Both teams are currently playing well and Notre Dame leads the Big East in scoring. However, the Huskies have held held their last five opponents to an average of just 62.4 points AND are playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Notre Dame. Note that the Huskies, who have improved greatly during that time, are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were attempting to avenge a road loss. The Huskies, who are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five, are also 9-3 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Irish snuck by Marquette in their past game. They failed to cover though, falling to 2-4 ATS their last six games. Note that Notre Dame is also now 2-5 ATS when coming off a victory over a conference opponent. The Irish have played just once at Gampel Pavilion, losing 85-65 during the 1995-96 season. They're 1-7 all-time against the Huskies in Connecticut, mostly playing at the Hartford Civic Center. The Huskies have beaten the likes of Marquette, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse and Georgia Tech during their current winning streak. Look for them to continue their excellent recent play, avenging the earlier loss and extending their homecourt dominance in this series. *Big East GOW
NBA
SONICS
Game: Utah Jazz vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 2/13/2008 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. The Sonics return home off a pair of impressive road games. After a double-digit road victory at Sacramento (as +9 underdogs) the Sonics traveled to Phoenix and stayed within four points of the Suns. Looking to close out the first half on a positive note, I expect them to carry the positive momentum from those games into tonight's contest. Although they lost their last game here, the Sonics have been much better at home all season, scoring more points here while allowing fewer. That's led to a respectable 14-11 ATS mark in 25 games here. Conversely, the Jazz are a poor 11-16 SU/ATS on the road this season. That includes a 13 point loss at Sacramento in their last road game. Not surprisingly, the home team has covered both meetings in this series. The Jazz won convincingly when the teams met at Utah in mid-December. However, the game down to the wire (Jazz won by two) when the teams faced each other at Seattle in November. That "cover" brought the Sonics to a profitable 8-3-1 ATS the last dozen times that they were a host in this series. Note that the Sonics are also a solid 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they were home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. On the other hand, the Jazz are just 2-5 ATS the past few seasons when listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, losing four of those games outright. I look for the revenge-minded Sonics to give their guests all they can handle tonight and won't be surprised if/when they score the outright upset.*Northwest Division GOM
BUCKS
Game: New Orleans Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Time: 2/13/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. The betting public will be quick to back the Hornets here. After all, they've won two in a row and 11 of 14. Meanwhile, since winning at Memphis on 2/5, the Bucks have managed to lose three in a row. The fact that the majority of bettors won't want to take Milwaukee has given us excellent line value though. A closer look at the Bucks' last three losses shows that they covered in the loss at Dallas and that the two defeats here came by an average of only four points. More importantly, note that the Bucks have been at their best after having lost a few in a row. In fact, they've gone a profitable 7-2 ATS this season after having lost three straight games, winning six of those games outright. After a sizzling streak in January, the Hornets have cooled off in February. Including a loss at Golden State to close out January, they're just 1-4 ATS their last five. Despite the recent close losses, the Bucks remain a respectable 13-10 at home. They had last night off and I expect them to be focused on closing out the first half on a positive note. Conversely, the Hornets played at Chicago last night and are likely looking ahead to returning home to the All Star festivities in New Orleans. Playing with "revenge" from an earlier road loss, look for the Bucks to earn (at least) the cover, improving to 77-53 ATS (59%) the past decade when coming off three or more consecutive losses. *Contrarian GOM
UNDER Lakers/TWolves
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game Time: 2/13/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Lakers and T-Wolves to finish UNDER the number. The T-Wolves have become competitive in recent weeks due largely to improved play at the defensive end of the floor. Including last night's relatively low-scoring (92-88 loss at NJ) result, that's led to the UNDER going a perfect 7-0 their last seven games. Note that the T-Wolves have also seen the UNDER go 8-3 the last 11 times that they played the second of back to back games. In fact, the most recent time that they played the second game of a back to back situation, the T-Wolves and Bulls combined for a mere 150 points. Despite big games from Bryant, Gasol and co. the Lakers have also been seeing the majority of their games finish below the number. In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 their last six games and 10-4 their last 14. It's also worth noting that the Lakers have seen the UNDER go a profitable 15-4 the last 19 times that they played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5, including a perfect 5-0 this season. Meanwhile, we find the UNDER at a healthy 30-19-1 the last 50 times that Minnesota played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. Look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again.
MAGIC
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic Game Time: 2/13/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Orlando Magic Reason: I'm laying the points with ORLANDO. Having gone just 1-3 through the first four games of their current five-game homestand, the Magic should be extremely hungry to close out the first half with a victory. Additional motivation will be provided from the fact that the Nuggets defeated them at Denver last month. The Magic, who had last night off, are 14-8 ATS on the season when playing with "revenge" and the situation favors them to get some "payback" tonight. The Nuggets, who come off a hard-fought overtime win at Miami, are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played the second of back to back games. Those three losses weren't close either as they came by margins of 22, 11 and 24 points. Looking back further and we find the Nuggets at just 6-13 SU and 7-12 ATS the last 19 times that they played the second of back to back games. The Magic, who are 8-3 ATS the last 11 times they played a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater, have dominated the Nuggets here in Florida. In fact, dating back to 1992, they've won 14 straight meetings against the Nuggets here, winning by an average of 14 points per game. Look for them to continue that homecourt series domination this evening, improving to 13-7 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game.
BOBCATS
Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Bobcats Game Time: 2/13/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats Reason: I'm laying the points with CHARLOTTE. The Hawks have won both meetings in this series so far this season. However, both those games came at Atlanta. Tonight, the scheduling situation favors the Bobcats to get some "payback," as they had last night off and are now playing at home. Homecourt is highly significant for both these teams, as both are competitive at home but dismal on the road. The Hawks, who come off a hard fought 4-point loss vs. Detroit, are 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that they played the second of back to back games and 1-6 SU/ATS in that situation since the beginning of December. Most recently, they were crushed by 19 points at Houston. Looking back further and we find them at just 6-14 SU and 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they played in the second game of a back to back situation. While the Bobcats have lost three of their last four at Atlanta, they've beaten the Hawks three straight times, both SU and ATS, here at Charlotte. Looking back further and we find them at 5-1 SU/ATS in six all-time series meetings here. The Bobcats have thrived as small home favorites, going 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times they were listed as home favorites of -3 points or less and 15-6 SU/ATS in that role the past three seasons. Look for homecourt to be difference tonight as the Bobcats avenge the earlier losses and close out the first half with a much-needed victory.
Mike Rose
Connecticut -5.0
The (18-4) Notre Dame Fighting Irish invade the Gampel Pavilion tonight to square off against Head Coach Jim Calhoun’s (18-5) UCONN Huskies. The game can be seen at 7:00 ET on ESPNU. The Fighting Irish have attained most of its gaudy record at home this year where they’re a perfect 15-0 and own one of the nation’s longest home winning streaks. However, they’ve only managed 3-4 SU and ATS marks in road/neutral venues this season. As for the Huskies, they’ve won 12 of their 13 home games this season with the only defeat suffered at the hands of the Providence Friars back in mid January. Only nine of those 13 home games had a betting line, and the Huskies come into tonight’s match-up with the Irish 5-3-1 ATS at home. Notre Dame currently sits 1-game in back of the Big East leading Georgetown Hoyas, while UCONN nipping their heels just 2-games back.
Notre Dame was last in action on Saturday when they upended the Marquette Warriors 86-83, but failed to cover the 4.5-point spread. The win was their fifth in a row and 8th in their L/10, but they only managed a 5-5 ATS mark throughout that stretch. They have won and covered their last two on the road against Seton Hall and Villanova, but got smashed at both Georgetown and Marquette before that.
UCONN won its last time out as well when they handed ACC member Georgia Tech an 80-68 defeat in Storrs. Hasheem Thabeet continued his excellent play by scoring 24 points, ripping down 15 boards, and blocking 6 shots. The win was the Huskies 7th in a row, and they to have earned victories in 8 of their L/10 overall. However, they experienced much better ATS success over that stretch than tonight’s opponent cashing tickets 7 of 9 times with 1 push.
The Irish took their earlier season meeting this year when they upended the Huskies 73-67 at home as 5.5-point home chalks. The combined 140 points fell 12 points under the closing ‘Total’ of 152. The home team has won seven straight in this series dating back to 2004, and each team has secured five ATS victories in the L/10 meetings. However, the Irish have cashed their backers tickets in 5 of the L/7 meetings, but the home team has struck ATS gold in 4 of the L/5 meetings.
Johnny Guild
Indiana Pacers (21-31) at Detroit Pistons (38-13)
The hot Detroit Pistons nine-game win streak has them in chase of the Celtics for best in the East. Take the surging Pistons tonight for a season sweep versus the Pacers at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Detroit has won five straight over Indiana and five of the last six at home. The Pistons haven't been money making team, just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games, but the Pacers are struggling, dropping eight of its last ten and allowing a ghastly 105.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Pistons are playing sound, especially on defense, allowing just an average of 90 points per game. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 clashes against Indiana and 4-2 ATS in the last 6 in Motown. The Pacers are 11-16 away from home thus far this season.
Detroit Pistons - 10
EZ Winners
3 STAR: (580) ST. LOUIS (-9) over George Washington
(Risking $330 to win $300)
As most of you guys know I hate to lay points, but I think this is a great spot. George Washington is coming off of their biggest win of the season, a 57-54 home win over Dayton in their last game, now they hit the road where they have not won a game all year. St. Louis will be fired up for this one. In their first meeting at George Washington, the Billikins were embarrassed in a 20-49 loss. This is a great time for them to catch GW in a letdown spot after beating Dayton. All nine of GW's road losses have been by double figures and this includes a 10 point loss to Maryland-Baltimore City! The Colonials are only 3-13-1 against the spread in their last 17 road games against a team with a winning home record. I look for St. Louis to get their revenge here, lay the points!
NBA
2 STAR: (527) WASHINGTON (+3) over LA Clippers
(Risking $220 to win $200)
This is the last game of a four game western road trip for the Wizards. Washington in currently 0-3 on their trip, but they have been very competitive in all three games at Denver, Phoenix and Golden State. I think they have a chance to sneak up on what should be a tired Clippers team. This is the Clippers first home game after a 12 day, 7 game east road trip where they were 3-4 winning their last game against Milwaukee on Monday. The Clippers are only 1-12 against the spread in their last 13 games following a straight up win. The Wizards are 17-8 against the spread in their last 25 games as a road underdog and 2-1 against the spread on this current road trip. Take the points!