LOCKOFTHEDAY
Orlando Magic -1
Indiana Pacers +6 1st Half
L O C K O F T H E D A Y Today’s NBA bet: This is the bet we are making in the NBA today. Our strategy in the NBA is to find two games we like. We make equal bets on each game. We either win both, or win one/lose one and scratch. There is nothing wrong with breaking even. Very often, we win both.
The Orlando Magic are one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards are a bunch of bums. Washington’s two best players are still out with injury. Sure, they have played well recently. Heck, they could win this game. But odds are the BETTER team will win! Dwight Howard is playing strong. The Magic beat down on Toronto last night. If these two teams played each ten times in row, Orlando would win eight. Tonight will be a win.
Also take the Pacers +6 in the first half. The betting public has fallen in love with the Houston Rockets. Don’t get on that train! Their winning streak will end soon, maybe tonight. The Pacers are playing great! They are scoring a ton of points. The Rockets will miss Yao who is out for the year. Take this big number!
Dr Bob
3 Best Bets.
Houston (NBA) (-10) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -11.
UL Lafayette (-9 1/2) 2-Stars at -10 or less.
Mid Tenn St (-9) 2-Stars at -10 or less.
3 Star Selection
***HOUSTON (-10) over Indiana
05:35 PM Pacific - Rotation 718
Houston has won 15 consecutive games while covering in each of their last 7 contests and the Rockets certainly haven’t missed Yao Ming, which is suspected that they wouldn’t. The Rockets have actually out- scored their opponents at a higher rate per 48 minutes with Ming on the bench this season than when he’s been on the floor and Houston has won and covered easily in all 3 games since Yao was lost for the season. Tonight the Rockets should continue their spread win streak against a Pacers squad that applies to a negative 26-81-1 ATS big road underdog letdown situation following their wins over Toronto (without Bosh) and over Milwaukee. Indiana is just 2-5 ATS this season after consecutive wins (1-4 ATS if they also covered in both games) and my ratings favor Houston by 10.8 points – so the line is more than fair. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 or less and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.
2 Star Selection
**UL LAFAYETTE (-9 ½) over Troy State
06:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 788
UL Lafayette was 12-6 ATS in conference play while Troy was just 6- 12 ATS in Sun Belt action, including a 66-87 home loss to Lafayette in the only previous meeting between these two teams. What’s interesting about that game is that Lafayette only made 7 of their 25 3-point attempts (28%) while Troy knocked down 9 of 22 3-pointers (41%). Normally when you see a game that is so far away from the expected it is because of a huge variance in the normal 3-point shooting of the teams. For Lafayette to beat Troy by 21 points despite poor 3-point shooting is an indication that the Ragin Cajuns match up well against Troy. Tonight the Cajuns apply to a 15-0 ATS subset of a 55-25-2 ATS conference tournament situation and I don’t mind going against a Troy team that is only 8-17 ATS in conference road games (2-7 ATS this season) and 5-16 ATS in all road games after a loss (1-7 ATS this season). ULL has had some trouble extending margins this season, but Troy’s fast pace will make it easier for the Ragin Cajuns to win by double-digits and I expect Lafayette to dominate in the paint again (ULL made 65% of their 2- pointers in the first meeting while Troy made only 32% of their 2- point shots while also being out-rebounded by the Cajuns 31-43). My ratings favor ULL by 10 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take UL Lafayette in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (-9) over UL Monroe
05:30 PM Pacific - Rotation 794
Middle Tennessee lost at Monroe 69-82 in the only previous meeting between these teams, but the Blue Raiders apply to a solid 73-33-2 ATS conference tournament revenge situation tonight in addition to a 34-7 ATS round 1 angle. The line on this game has come down from an opening line of 11 ½ points to 9 points and 9 points is what I get if I use all games for the entire season for both teams. However, the oddsmakers were clearly giving the Raiders credit for playing better in conference play and I would favor MTS by 14 points if I used only conference games for each team. Middle Tennessee should get credit for playing better in conference because they always play better in conference under coach Kermit Davis. The Blue Raiders are only 22-26-2 ATS in non-conference games under Davis, but they are 61-40-2 ATS in conference play, including 7-4 ATS in the conference tournament (12-5-1 ATS in conference this season). UL Monroe, meanwhile, played worse in conference play and the Warhawks are only 12-21 ATS as an underdog under coach Orlando Early. I’ll take Middle Tennessee State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Wednesday NBA Opinion
Minnesota (+14 ½) over UTAH
Utah is 19-9-1 ATS at home this season, but the Jazz are only 2-4 ATS laying 12 points or more, so they have a tendency to letdown at home against bad teams. Minnesota is a bad team, but the Timberwolves have taken advantage of good teams being less than focused against them, as they are 6-2 ATS as a road underdog of 12 points or more. Utah has a game with Phoenix coming up on Friday that they could be looking ahead to and the Jazz actually apply to a negative 195-289-9 ATS big home favorite look-ahead situation tonight. That angle isn’t strong enough to make this game a Best Bet, but I’ll lean with Minnesota at +14 points or more.
Wednesday College Opinion
BAYLOR (-1 ½) over Texas A&M
Texas A&M is just 3-5 straight up and 3-5 ATS on the road and their 3 road wins have all come against mediocre teams (Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Missouri). The Aggies have been whipped on the road by the 4 teams they’ve visited that have legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes, losing by 11 points at Arizona, by 21 points at Kansas State, by 27 points at Texas, and by 27 points at Oklahoma. A&M also lost by 15 points at Texas Tech, so all of their road losses have been by double-digit margins. Baylor is ahead of Texas A&M in the Big 12 standings and the Bears won at College Station in a thrilling 116-110 five overtime game – so they can certainly beat the Aggies at home. My ratings favor Baylor by 5 points in this game but the line is only 2 points because that is the number that you get if you use all games for both teams at equal weight. However, A&M built up their rating by destroying bad teams at home early in the season and I would get a fair line of Baylor by 5 points if I only use games for each team against opponents that were minimum Big 12 quality or better and by 7 points if I only use conference games only. I’ll lean with Baylor at -2 points or less.
INDIAN COWBOY
Miami Heat -2.5 (POD) 5* Game of the Month
Still Perfect on NBA Game of the Months. Looking to keep the streak alive throughout the end of the NBA Season. 6-1 in the last 7 POD. Looking for winning day 3 of 4.
Long story short here, the Miami Heat have been playing very good basketball as Shawn Marion has made a huge difference to this team. This team just went on the road and got revenge against the Seattle Supersonics for their previous loss, they took care of the Kings at home and nearly beat them again on the road if it wasn't for one of the biggest collapses that I have ever seen as they were outscored miserably in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Not that I am arguing with it considering that the Kings were my POD that night. However, coming back home after an incredibly tough loss, frustrated, and facing a team that drilled them 114-82 earlier in the year gives this team a chance to beat up on them now at home - facing them with out Chris Bosh who is still out. In my blog today I pointed out that if the Raptors win ballgames, they cover, if they lose ballgames they do not cover. In other words, they rarely win ballgames straight up and do not cover. In their last 10 ballgames, they have won 5 straight up and covered all 5 and have lost 5 ballgames and have failed to cover in those 5 ballgames. The Heat have revenge, they come back home and are coming off one of their toughest losses this season. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS as small underdogs of late.
ALATEX
Super 15* Baylor
Redzone
Late Phone Plays
Mississippi State
LSU
Beat The Odds
NBA Clev-3
CBB Tenn -3
Vanderbilt -3
Seabass Full Card
Insider: Seton Hall
Baskets NCAA
20* Florida, Miami, Virginia, Air force, Miss St
Baskets NBA
10* Memphis
Hockey
20* Anaheim
Executive
S. Carolina -2 400%
Seton Hall +2.5 250%
Orland Magic -2 250%