Tony Mathew's
Matchup: UC Santa Barbara vs. Mississippi
Selection: Mississippi -13
Explanation: We will side with Mississippi as they face-off against UC Santa Barbara in Wednesday's College Basketball contest.
The Mississippi offense should be able to control this game from start to finish. Mississippi (at home) is scoring an average of 84.3 points per game, while UC Santa Barbara (on the road) is scoring an average of only 67.9 points per game. As you can see, Mississippi has the much better defense.
Mississippi has played great basketball at home this season. In fact, Mississippi is 15-2 when playing at home this season.
Take Mississippi -13!
Scott Rickenbach
Note: This is an opinion play only, not a star rated play. However, this is a solid situation and, for more solid situations, don't miss Scott's guaranteed picks tonight! Wednesday's Free Pick is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Detroit @ 8 ET – A nice “watch and win” situation with this big Central Division showdown being televised on ESPN. One key here is the scheduling situation as the Pistons are coming off of a big home win over Denver last night. That makes this a back to back situation for the Pistons and it’s also Detroit’s third game in four nights. That makes this a tough spot for Detroit as the Cavaliers are rested (third game in four nights BUT had yesterday off) and the Cavs are seeking revenge from a blowout loss at Auburn Hills earlier this season. Cleveland star LeBron James was forced to leave that late November game early on due to an injury. The Cavs went on to lose the game by 35 points and, needless to say, Cleveland is fully focused on making amends for that loss today behind a now healthy James.
The Pistons have been red hot but have been helped by their schedule as they’ve just completed a five game homestand. Note that Detroit is just a mediocre 4-3 in their last 7 road games. Cleveland has also been struggling on the road but the story at home has been quite different. At the Quicken Loans Arena, the Cavaliers have now won 7 straight games. They will remain red hot here as, after a loss at Orlando Monday, yesterday’s off day helped the Cavaliers in preparing for the Pistons.
Cleveland will certainly be fired up tonight as the loss to the Magic, coupled with this being a big revenge game for the Cavs, will mean full intensity is brought to the floor by the Cavaliers. The Cavs are a different, and much deeper team, than they were when they faced the Pistons in late November. We feel they have improved their team chemistry with the trades. Also, let’s not forget how much trouble the Pistons had with LeBron in last spring’s postseason. Now James has an even better supporting cast (since the big trades) and the Cavaliers wlll get the job done on their home floor tonight. Play Cleveland plus the points.
Alex Smart
Game: Utah St. vs. Illinois State
Prediction: Illinois State
Illinois State (24-9 ) is one of my personal considerations for one of the dark horses that are capable of NIT Tournament championship run . Here tonight against a Utah State program (24-10), that despite of playing great hoops at home, as is evident by a 17-0 mark, were a sub par road team, notching just 5 wins in 13 opportunities for a lowly .384 win %. Ilinois State was 15-1 at home this season, winning by an average margin of 12.2 PPG and according to my own power rankings should walk away with this tilt . Final notes & Key Trends: The Redbirds are 20-8 ATS in their L28 non conference affairs. Play on Illinois State as home favorites
Indiancowboy Comp Pick
Philadelphia 76ers -3
Ah, you see say, "IC, the Nuggets got pounded yesterday by the Pistons and there is no way they lose today". It is true the Nuggets got pounded yesterday, but the Nuggets also pounded a very proud Sixers team at home in Denver by a score of 109-96. The Sixers remember have won 8 of their last 10 ballgames and frankly, have made me some considerable cash. The Sixers are the same team that beat Detroit on the road outright - which Denver failed to do last night, they beat Chicago on the road by coming back 40-20 in 4th quarter, covered their last 8 of 10, beat the Spurs at home and beat Phoenix on the road. This is one of the top 5 teams in the East in my opinion and because of their defense, they can resort to even being top 3 - why do you think they beat the Pistons? And remember, they beat the Magic at home with revenge as well and in fact, jumped all over them in the first half. You could say the Nuggets are a great team - they are, but that's at home - on the road, they are very questionable, losing to the Bucks, Spurs, Utah, Houston, Chicago and Orlando. In fact, the are 12-20 on the road. It's the Sixers defense, their revenge, and the fact they are rested will make the difference in my opinion as the Nugs are 0-6 ATS when playing on 0 days rest and the Sixers are 8-0 ATS when playing a team with a losing road record.
Tom Freese
Phoenix at Seattle
Phoenix is in a 121-70 ATS System that says to Play On road favorites after scoring 105 or more points in three straight games. The Suns are 4-0 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 road games. Seattle is 8-19 ATS home when playing with double revenge and they are 9-19 ATS off a road loss. The Supersonics are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as home dogs. PLAY ON PHOENIX -
Jim Feist
DEN Nuggets - PHI 76ers
Take "PHI 76ers"
It’s not your imagination: Denver continues to be one team at home, and a very different team on the road. They just had a 3-game win streak…all at home. Denver started 12-19 SU, 14-17 ATS on the road and this is a difficult scheduling spot, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. It’s the second of a back to back road spot after playing at Detroit Tuesday. Philadelphia is rested and on a 7-1 SU/ATS roll. Denver is 0-6 ATS its last 6 in the second of a back-to-back spot, getting beat by an average of 16.8 ppg! A great spot for the home team. Play the 76ers! -
Tony Karpinski
San Diego State vs. Florida
Play: Florida
SD State at Florida (College Hoops), 9:05PM ET San Diego State did have a good year overall with 20 wins and 12 losses but in a weak MWC conference they went just 9-7 which is why they are in the NIT and not the big dance. Florida the two-time defending champions went 21-11 but since they were just 8-8 in the SEC as they were just not good enough to make the cut as they look to win a championship again for the third straight year however just this time in the NIT. Look for a young Florida team to come out playing like gang busters at home in the swamp as they run past San Diego State. Pick on the Florida Gators
Ted Sevransky
Utah State @ Illinois State
PICK: Utah State
REASON FOR PICK: Utah State ranked #1 in the nation in offensive field goal percentage – better than Kansas, better than Georgetown, better than any of the 340 other teams in college basketball. And it’s not even a close race – the Aggies were a percentage point and a half better than the Jayhawks, who ranked second in the nation in this statistical category. Quite simply, this team takes good shots on nearly every possession. Head coach Stew Morrill’s offense is extremely difficult to defend; even tougher for an opponent that hasn’t seen it before and has only a few days to prepare defensively.
Utah State was not a great road team this year by any stretch of the imagination, winning only five of their 13 road contests. But when the Aggies lost on the highway, their good shooting was enough to keep them in the game – a three point loss at San Jose St, a five point loss at Hawaii and a five point loss at Nevada in their last three road defeats. It’s surely worth noting that Utah State won their last two road games of the season by 19 points or more, showing dramatic signs of improvement in hostile environments as the season progressed. But their overall road record gives us solid value here in a game that they won’t need to win in order to cover the pointspread.
Road underdogs went 9-3 ATS on the opening night of the two ‘other’ tournaments (NIT & CBI). Home courts simply don’t mean as much in the lesser tournaments as they did during the regular season. Illinois State is still nursing a minor hangover from their NCAA snub, and, despite their 15-1 home court straight up record, they only finished 7-7 ATS at the Redbird Arena this year. Their 3-6 ATS mark at home down the stretch of the Missouri Valley campaign including an 0-4 ATS mark when laying seven points or more gives us all the confidence we need to fade the Redbirds at home tonight. Take Utah State.
Brandon Lang
10 Dime UTEP
10 Dime UAB
5 Dime Santa Barbara
5 Dime Tulsa
5 Dime Charlotte
FREE - Cincinnati
Winners Edge
NBA
Atlanta Hawks Pk , 2 Unitts
Detroit Pistons Pk , 2 Units
CBB
Tulsa - 4 , 3 Units
Uab + 6 , 2 Units
Florida - 10 , 2 Units
LT's Lock
76er's -2'
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Pacers -6
At 6-26 SU and 11-19 ATS, Charlotte is a terrible road team. The Bobcats come into this one having lost 4 in a row on their current road trip and the Pacers will send them back home with their tails between their legs tonight. Charlotte is 4-12 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season and 5-13 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against the Bobcats. Take Indiana to defend its home court with ease tonight against a road weary Bobcats club.
Joel Tyson
Take the points with the Niners of Charlotte when they visit Nebraska tonight in this NIT match up. The Forty Niners may have been in the big dance if it hadn?t been for their second round loss in their conference tournament to the Temple Owls. Prior to the loss however UNCC had won five straight, and should still have some momentum heading into tonight. With both teams carrying pretty much identical stats in scoring, defense and field goal percentage I look for this one to be close. Charlotte has enjoyed good success ATS over their last nine midweek games, as they have covered seven of them. Play UNCC to stay within the number.
4* UNCC
Take the couple of points and back the Denver Nuggets as Allen Iverson makes his first trip back to Philly since being traded last season. The Nuggets have covered in seven of the last 10 match ups versus the Sixers, including this season?s first match up in which they won 109-96. Denver will be looking to get back on track tonight after having their three game win streak halted last night by Eastern Conference powerhouse Detroit. I fully expect the Nuggets to not only pick up the cover but pick the win up as well. Denver currently is averaging 109.00 ppg on the season, compared to Philadelphia?s 96.3 ppg. Expect the Nuggets high-octane offense to get clicking early tonight as they roll to victory.
4* DENVER
Bobby Maxwell
We're aware Utah didn't finish the regular season on a high note, but this team surprised everyone with the way they looked in the Mountain West Conference tourney. It looked like they were back to that midseason form as they knocked off New Mexico 82-80 in OT and then play eventual tourney champ UNLV down to the wire before falling 61-55 in the semifinal.
And there is some familiarity between these two teams as Utah beat the Miners 60-54 back in 2005 and got the cover as 3 1/2-point home favorites. Utah is 5-0 (3-2 ATS) against UTEP dating back to 1998, including two wins on the Miners' home court.
UTEP was just 5-5-1 ATS on its home court this season while the Utes went 8-7-1 ATS on the highway. The Miners were 1-3 SU and ATS in their final four games of the regular season.
Utah has got the size to control the boards and control the tempo of this game. They are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 nonconference games while the Miners are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six nonconference battles.
Go ahead and play Utah to control this one from the start and hold off a late charge in the exciting CBI Tournament.
4* UTAH
How about that effort the Pistons put out on Tuesday, demolishing the Nuggets 136-120 as 4 1/2-point favorites? That's the most points Detroit has put on the board in years and it comes on the heels of Denver putting up 168 in their blowout of Seattle on Sunday.
The Pistons have now won five of six overall (3-3 ATS) and this team is absolute money on the second night of back-to-backs, going 11-5-1 ATS on the second night.
Detroit won the only meetings with the Cavs this season, winning 109-74 back in November as a nine-point home chalk. It ended an eight-game ATS streak for Cleveland in this series. And remember, the Pistons were ousted from the Eastern Conference playoffs last year by these Cavs, so there is always going to be extra motivation there for Detroit.
The Cavaliers have lost three of their last four SU and ATS and got beat in Orlando 104-90 on Monday as a 6 1/2-opint underdog. Last time they were home they couldn't even get the cash against the lowly Bobcats, winning 98-91 as 7 1/2-point favorites.
Detroit is going to put the clamps on LeBron and Co. in this one and pull out the win. Play the Pistons.
3* DETROIT
Karl Garrett
The G-Man feels they have inflated the price on the Gators tonight, as San Diego State is quite capable of battling this young Florida edition right down to the wire in Gainsville.
That being the case, I am grabbing the points with the visiting Aztecs in this one!
SD State has won 20 games this year, and while they haven't exactly been on a tear of late, the Gators come into this one in worse shape.
Florida has lost their last 4, and 8 of their last 11 straight up, while covering only twice along the way! Those numbers have the G-Man absolutely perplexed as to how the oddsmakers can make the Gators a chalk of this amount.
This is more of a "repuatation" line than anything else, and I for one am glad to exploit it.
Take the Aztecs plus the points.
5* SAN DIEGO STATE
Chuck Franklin
The Flyers traditionally have a very tough home court. They will be able to handle Cleveland State at the UD Arena tonight, where they are 14-3 this season. The Vikings are a .500 road team.
Although Cleveland State finished the season on a very profitable 7-1 ATS run and made it to their conference tourney final, I will predict the end of their season with this game. The Vikings are only 2-5 ATS the last seven games on the road when facing a team that has a winning record at home.
Dayton is 5-1 ATS the last six non-conference games and will win this game by double-digits.
It will be an absolute blowout!
3* DAYTON
Seattle, one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA will get blown out tonight by one of the best offensive teams in the league. The Sonics lost their eighth game in a row in humiliating fashion, allowing the Denver Nuggets the most points scored in the NBA in 17 years. The Suns average 110 points per game. The second highest average in the league. Phoenix is on a five game winning streak in which they are averaging 117.4 points per game. Shaq is fitting in just fine with the Suns.
Seattle has failed to cover the spread four in a row at home, all as the underdog. They are only 2-5 ATS the last seven overall games played. Phoenix is 6-2 ATS the last eight games on the road and they have covered the spread in each of the last five games overall.
This will be an absolute blowout!
3* PHOENIX