Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Suns/Celtics UNDER 207.5
7 of Boston's last 9 games have gone under the number. Boston is 20-6 UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons and 13-3 UNDER after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The first time these teams played this season, Boston was able to enforce its will on the Suns, holding them to just 85 points. Boston only scored 77 itself. This one went way under as the line was set at 216.5. The Celtics have only allowed 88.4ppg at home this season. It appears the oddsmakers have set the bar too high for these teams once again. Take the UNDER.
Marco D´Angelo
Milwaukee vs Atlanta
Today's Pick: MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Tonight in the NBA Milwaukee travels into Atlanta to battle the Hawks. Atlanta is returning home following last night's loss in Chicago. This is a bad spot for Atlanta and we expect Milwaukee to take full advantage. This game should be a nail biter. Grab those points as the Dog gets the money.TAKE MILWAUKEE.
Larry Ness
SAC -10.0 vs MEM
The Grizzlies beat the Knicks 120-106 last Friday night in Madison Square Garden, ending the team's 18-game road losing streak (7-11 ATS). The Grizz returned home the next night and beat the Kings, 117-111. Now, after a home loss to Denver on Monday (120-106), the Grizzlies are back on the road and trying to end yet another 18-game losing streak. Memphis visits Arco Arena tonight and has lost 18 straight games in Sacramento to the Kings. Memphis hasn't won a road game versus the Kings since the franchise was still in Vancouver. One has to go all the way back to a 112-108 OT win by the Grizzlies over the Kings during the 1997-1998 season to find the team's last win in Sacramento. Now I'm not sure that has "much to do with the price of eggs," but it was too interesting not to mention it. The Kings come in with their own set of problems, having lost 11 of 16 games (6-9-1 ATS). Just like the Grizz, the Kings are playing terrible defense, having allowed 100 points or more in 17 of their last 18 contests. For the season, Sacramento is allowing 104.3 PPG (ranks 24th) and opponents have shot 46.6 percent from the floor against them, which ranks 25th. However, Memphis is even worse defensively, allowing 106.1 PPG (28th), while ranking dead-last (30th) in opponents FG percentage. While the Kings will miss the playoffs for the second straight year (after an eight-year run), I'll still side with them in this game. They just recently lost to the Grizz (last Saturday in Memphis) and despite their recent struggles, are still a respectable 21-12 SU and 20-13 ATS at home. Lay the points with the Kings.
Rocky Atkinson
Ohio St. -8.0 vs Dayton
Dayton is 3-10 ATS since 1997 as a road underdog of 6 1/2 to 9 points. Ohio State has a very strong home court with a 51-4 record the past 3 years. Dayton is scoring only 62.5 points per game on the road this season. Ohio State is allowing only 61.3 points per game overall and 57.9 points per game at home this year. Ohio State has a SOLID defense and defense wins games! Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Buckeyes are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. We'll recommend a small play on Ohio State tonight!
InfoPlays
3* on Chicago Bulls +8
The Bulls take their momentum from a nice home win over Atlanta last night right into Philadelphia tonight. Chicago has too much at stake to just fold in the East. The Bulls are now just 2 games out of the last playoff spot and a big win over the 76ers tonight would go a long way in helping their cause. Drew Gooden refused to let this team lose last night, throwing in 31 points and 16 rebounds for the Bulls. Look for the rest of his team to follow suit tonight in Philadelphia. The Bulls have won back-to-back games at Philly so they don’t mind going on the road against this team one bit. Chicago is 23-12 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Philly is 10-22 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons. Bet Chicago on the road.
Doc's
Charlotte Bobcats @ Los Angeles Lakers
PICK: over
REASON FOR PICK: The Bobcats are not very good defensively anyways but we think they will be exceptionally bad tonight against the high-octane Lakers especially coming in on a back-to-back and giving up 128 in Utah last night. The Lakers have been even worse defensively in recent games, yet they score so many points that it doesn’t matter in the overall scheme of things. When the Bobcats play teams from the NBA Pacific it is always a high-scoring affair as 24 of the last 32 meetings with clubs from this division have produced overs. Also, the Lakers are 7-3 for the over in their last 10 when listed as a favorite. We think a fatigued Charlotte defense is going to let the Lakers score at will tonight and they will not need much offense to make up the difference for this total.
THE PREZ
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks
PICK: under
REASON FOR PICK: When the Heat visits Madison Square Garden tonight, the matchup features a double negative, a bad Knicks (19-51) team that is headed to the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference, against an even worse Heat (13-57) squad that is in position to become only the ninth team since the NBA went to an 82-game schedule to finish with fewer than 15 victories.
Miami is, and will be, without Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Jason Williams, Shawn Marion and Alonzo Mourning for tonight's game, and as bad as the Knicks have been, their woes don't compare with the overwhelming player personnel issues that the Heat are currently facing.
While the logical play might appear to be on the Knicks due to the short bench for the Heat, the UNDER is the injury-system-play tonight in the Garden. Conditions that use multiple variables offer the Prez users, an action play on the UNDER.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 games following a ATS win; 4-1 in the last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game; 4-1 in the last 5 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game; 7-2 in Heat's last 9 vs. the Eastern Conference; and 22-7-1 in their last 30 vs. NBA Atlantic.
The UNDER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings between these two clubs.
Play: UNDER in the Knicks and Heat game.
DAVE MALINSKY
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA/HOUSTON Under
When we talk about our MTG, or “Manage The Game” settings, the focus is usually on how the favorite is expected to perform in the role. To refresh your memories, these are games in which a large home favorite has no purpose beyond merely getting a win, with the margin of no consequence whatsoever. And when faced with an opponent that they can control this late in the season, it means getting the game over with as painlessly as possible. Which more than not translates into getting the game Under with. These can provide some of the strongest Under settings annually on the NBA calendar, as the favorites slow the pace and grind away. But this time we can also look at it from the standpoint of the underdog as well.
The betting markets have helped us by setting a high line on this one, and we can understand where some of that comes from - the Timberwolves are on a run of five straight Over’s on the road. But let’s take a deeper look to get to the real truth. None of those last five Minnesota games came against playoff contenders, and when bad teams go head-to-head this late in the season games absolutely do get played much more loosely. But what if we examine the T’Wolves as the classic MTG opponent? That is where it gets interesting.
Over the past two months Minnesota has only played four road games against teams that would qualify for the playoffs if they started today. Not only did those games play a perfect 4-0 to the Under, but they fell a collective 53.5 points below the projections, or nearly 13.5 per game. That shows us what happens when the opponent is taking the game seriously - the T’Wolves have no ability to speed a game up on their own, and often can break down completely offensively against a class defense.
Houston brings just such a defense tonight, and the proper focus. The Rockets had yesterday off to prepare, and do not play again until a Sunday trip to Seattle. It means time to grind away against a team they have already held to 82 and 86 points in a pair of earlier wins (and yes, Randy Foye was already back for Minnesota in the latter). Houston gets the early lead and keeps this at a half-court pace throughout.
INDIAN COWBOY
PLAY OF THE DAY: MILWAUKEE vs ATLANTA
Play: Atlanta -8 (POD)
INDIAN COWBOY: BRADLEY vs VIRGINIA
Play: Bradley +6.5
INDIAN COWBOY: DETROIT vs TORONTO
Play: Toronto Raptors -1.5
John Ryan
Game: Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Minnesota ? AiS shows a 70% probability that Minnesota will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 43-16 ATS since 1996. Play against favorites of 10 or more points after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days. No doubt that Houston is a good team and one of the things they do very well is rebound the basketball. Note, however, that Minnesota is 15-5 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. Houston is not in a good role for this game and for some reason are not passing the ball nearly as much as they had during the incredible winning streak. Note that Houston is 8-22 ATS in home games after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 3 seasons.
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
PHILADELPHIA -7.5
BRADLEY vs VIRGINIA UNDER 153
Rocketman Sports
NBA
3* Milwaukee +8 1/2
3* New York -6 1/2
NCAAB
1* Ohio State
West Coast Sports
Philadelphia 76ers -7
Chicago Blackhawks -110
Edmonton Oilers +170
LA Kings +205
Winning Points Online
***BEST BET
Philadelphia* over Chicago by 20
Drew Gooden hit his first five shots and finished with a season-high 31 points while matching a season best with 16 rebounds in the Bulls' 103-94 victory over Atlanta last night.
Time for Drew (Ugh) Gooden to move in reverse, back to his usual stats.
Bulls are an erratic, ordinary team with a lousy head coach traveling to play the second of back-to-backs off a win, vs. rested home team.Philly's interior defense is not the strongest, but that is offset by Chicago's interior offense (and defense) being pretty weak itself.
Even Philadelphia head coach Mo Cheeks knows the Bulls are a joke. This is what he said after the last meeting between the teams, when Philly came back from an 18-point deficit to win in Chicago: "What Chicago does inside their building is they usually get off to big starts. This is not unusual for them. We just hung in there and never stopped playing,"Cheeks said.
Sixers' guard Willie Green (12.6 points per game) didn't even play in that game, yet the Sixers managed the short-handed comeback. Green has since returned and the 76ers have won four out of five since then -- all three home games plus a road game at Boston. This is a **PREFERRED selection in the main issue of Winning Points, upgraded.
PHILADELPHIA 109-89
2 Minute Warning
Spurs