Ted Sevransky
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Golden State Warriors
Dallas has the single worst pointspread record of any team in the NBA at home. If you’ve bet against the Mavs in every home game this year you’ve gone 15-5 ATS with your wagers, cashing at a 75% clip. And there’s no reason to think the anti-Mavs gravy train is coming to an end tonight when the under-rated Warriors come to town.
Golden State got a huge boost with the return of Monta Ellis to the lineup last week, after he missed the entire first half of the season recovering from his offseason moped accident. Corey Maggette is finally healthy. Stephen Jackson is finally healthy. Jamal Crawford could be back in the lineup tonight after missing the last two games with a bad hamstring. With that quartet in the lineup, the Warriors are extremely dangerous offensively, particularly against a bad defensive team like the Mavs.
Dallas got blown off the court against the Celtics on Sunday. They got blown off the court at Milwaukee last Wednesday. They’ve allowed 49% shooting from three point range in their last five games! With defensive liability Jason Kidd unable to contain opposing point guards, a drive and dish team like the Warriors should have all kinds of open perimeter looks. Facing a Warriors team that hasn’t lost a game by more than two points in their last seven contests, look for Golden State to hang from start to finish tonight. 2* Take the Warriors.
King Creole
ATLANTA HAWKS plus the point(s) vs the New York Knicks
On Monday, King Creole and SPEEDEE and the gang were ON the New York Knicks and they rewarded our faith with an outright dog win over the Houston Rockets. On Wednesday, we will be 'fading' New York as they are now in a prime Play AGAINST situation.... the same one that we used against Houston on Monday. The line in this game is pretty manageable. 2 weeks ago, New York would NOT have been a home favorite versus a Hawk team that's 26-18 SU on the year. But 5 straight ATS wins (and two SU losses for Atlanta) has obviously changed the mindset of the oddsmakers.
371-7 ATS so far in 2008/09: All NBA Conference underdogs (HAWKS) playing any opponent that's off a SU underdog win (like New York). ROAD teams in this situation (HAWKS) have gone a very impressive 29-12 ATS. If our doggie is off a DD SU loss, the results improve to 12-2 ATS (HAWKS). And if these doggies are actually playing off back-to-back SU and ATS losses (like ATLANTA is), the results improve to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS so far this season.
Don't be afraid to fade the Knicks despite their current got ATS run (5-0 ATS last 5 games).So far in the month of JANUARY, NBA home favorites playing off 5 or more ATS wins in a row (New York) are 1-6 ATS.... and a PERFECT 0-5 ATS in the last 3 weeks.
Atlanta comes off a 'bitch-slappin' road loss to division rival Miami (down here in sunny South Florida)... by a final score of 95-79 on Sunday. No worries....So far in the 2008/09 season, NBA road teams are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS when playing off a SU divison loss of 15 or more points (HAWKS).
Ben Burns
Buffalo Sabres @ Calgary Flames
PICK: Calgary Flames
The Sabres won big at Edmonton last night. However, they haven't been strong when playing the second of back to back games and Calgary is an even tougher venue. Indeed, while Edmonton is now 11-12 (11-9-3) at home, the Flames are a much stronger 17-8 (17-5-3) here at Calgary.
While the Sabres are 3-7 (-5.2) the last 10 times that they played the second of back to back games, the Flames are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they played after having three or more days worth of rest in between games. With the Flames at 6-2 vs. teams from the East, consider laying the price with the home team.
ROCKETMAN
Chicago @ Anaheim
Play: 1* Chicago -120
Blackhawks are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Blackhawks are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Blackhawks are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Blackhawks are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Blackhawks are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Blackhawks are 23-9 in their last 32 games as a favorite. Blackhawks are 11-5 in their last 16 Wednesday games. Ducks are 2-5 in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Ducks are 2-6 in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Ducks are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Ducks are 2-9 in their last 11 games as an underdog. Ducks are 1-5 in their last 6 Wednesday games. Ducks are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Ducks are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win. Ducks are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago tonight!
Stephen Nover
Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets
PICK: Toronto Raptors
Toronto is finally healthy and its rotation is back to normal with Jose Calderon and Jermaine O'Neal back in the lineup. Everybody has returned to their normal position. The Raptors are a team worth keeping an eye on.
The Raptors have scored 113 points versus Sacramento and 114 against Chicago since Calderon returned.
The Raptors have been idle since Sunday. New Jersey is playing for the first time at home following a 1-3 road trip that ended with a disappointing and embarrassing loss at Oklahoma City.
New Jersey is just 8-15 against the spread at home, getitng luke-warm crowd support.
The Nets have internal and morale issues. Lawrence Frank could be the next coach fired. He continues to have conflicts with Vince Carter and Devin Harris, who were a combined six-for-29 from the floor against the Thunder. Carter and Harris are a combined 17-for-61 shooting from the floor in their last two games against the Raptors, which occurred on Dec. 12 and Dec. 15.
The Nets hold a 2-1 series lead on the Raptors this season. The Raptors are motivated not to finish 1-3 against the Nets, a team they really dislike for knocking them out of the playoffs in Round One two years ago.
The Nets will be missing injured Yi Jianlian, which reduces the team's versatility, and Stromile Swift, the team leader in field goal percentage.
New Jersey hasn't broken the 100-point barrier in its last seven games. Its scoring is way down in this seven-game stretch averaging 91 points compared to 99.8 points during the previous five games.
This is a one-unit play for me.
GREG SHAKER
Pittsburgh Panthers at Villanova Wildcats
Play: Villanova +3.5
This is a very good matchup spot for the Wildcats because they are one of the teams in the Big East who can go to the boards as well as their opponent tonight. They proved how lethal they can be just the other night at South Florida dominating that phase of the game 41-26. They have been especially good at doing that right here at home with a rebound edge of right at 6 per game. This team also plays very good D, allowing just 38% shooting, and 58 points per contest on this floor. And they have stepped that up a notch. There is not much more I can say about this one and so these brief thoughts will be it. At 3-3 in the conference, the Wildcats need this game as bad as can be and I expect them to come out hungry to get it. I would play this one at pick'em but happy to have the small spot.
Jack Jones
Take Miami Heat -8.5 over Washington Wizards
Take the Heat over the Washington Wizards in Miami tonight. The Wizards are one of the worst teams in the NBA on the road at just 3-19 this year. The Heat are just finishing up a 4 game home stand, on which they are already 3-1. The Wizards are currently on a 3 game slide, and they've dropped 10 of their last 12 overall. Miami has 4 straight wins against the spread against teams with a losing record, while Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games against the spread on the road. The Wizards have covered in 7 of their last 8 at Miami, but this is one of the worst teams Washington has had in recent memory. I'll take the Heat at home.
Take Wake Forest +1.5 over Duke
Wake Forest can certainly hold their own against the nations newly-crowned #1 team, the Duke Blue Devils. Last season, with the exact same starting rosters, the Demon Deacons defeated Duke by a final score of 86-73 at Wake Forest. It was considered a huge upset last season with the Blue Devils losing by 13 points as 8 point favorites, but this year it won't be quite a shocking. It's obvious that both teams have improved, but the edge still leans toward Wake on their home court. They have edges in shooting percentage, rebounding, and scoring offense that can't be overlooked. Both teams have put forth impressive defensive efforts this season, with Wake giving up 62 points per game at home this season and Duke giving up the same amount on the road. It will be a close game for sure, but I think the Demon Deacons walk way with the victory over Duke.
Larry Ness
UAB @ Tulsa
PICK: Tulsa
UAB enters tonight's contest with Tulsa at 13-7 overall and a 3-2 record in C-USA play. Tulsa owns the exact same record. UAB is coming off a 38-point home win over Rice in which the 6-5 Robert Vaden (19.0-5.6) posted a game-high 21 points, while the Lawrence Kinnard (14.6-9.1) scored 15 points and collected seven rebounds. PG Delaney (16.5-4.6-3.1) is the team's third double digit scorer and he's joined in the backcourt by Georgia transfer Toney (7.5-3.5) with the 6-8 Crawford (7.4) rounding out the starting-five. The Golden Hurricane made 48.0 percent of their attempts from the floor in Saturday's impressive eight-point road win over UTEP. The 7-0 Jerome Jordan (14.0-9.6) scored 21 points and hauled in 14 rebounds to lead Tulsa in the win, while leading scorer Ben Uzoh (15.6-4.3-3.7) tallied 17 points. Hurtt (8.1) and Andrews (7.4) join Uzoh in the backcourt, with 6-5 swingman Reese (9.0-4.0), the 6-6 Wheatley (5.5-4.0), the 6-10 Idlet (4.0-3.1), the 6-9 Mitchell (2.1-3.3) and the 6-7 Richard (1.4-2.6) helping out Jordan inside. UAB opened with three straight road wins but has since dropped all five of its road games, covering just once. Tulsa leads C-USA in scoring defense allowing 59.7 PPG and could be poised for another late-season run (went 15-4 to end last year, including taking the inaugural CBI tourney). Lay the points with Tulsa.
maddux sports
Today's Free Pick is Memphis Tigers -14.5
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NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS -
FREE NBA PICKS
Atlanta @ New York
Time: 7:35 PM EST
Pick: Atlanta +2
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Charlies Sports
nba .sacramento+17 @ boston, the sacramento kings roll into boston tonight
for what should be a blowout for the home team but the kings will keep it closer
than the experts predict, kings cover+17.
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Tony Karpinski
Toronto Raptors vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets +2
The Nets have taken two of three from the Raptors this season and they'll make it three of four with this one. Look for big things from Nets' point gard Devin Harris who is averaging 21.5 points and 6.4 assists per game. New Jersey is back at home after four-games on the highway that saw them go 2-2 ATS but lose at Oklahoma City on Monday. That was an embarassing loss and they'll bounce back tonight.
Toronto has won two in a row, but that's only after losing seven straight (2-4-1 ATS). The Raptors got a 113-97 home win over the Kings on Sunday as nine-point favorites.We're going to play the Nets at home in this one to get the job done Wednesday Night.
Scott Rickenbach
Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets
PICK: Toronto Raptors
While neither team will impress you with their overall performance this season, the Raptors are finally healthy again and it showed in their most recent game as they did emerge victorious. Jermaine O'Neal is back as is point guard Jose Calderon. With those two guys back on the floor, the Raptors are a much different team. With the Nets struggling at home all season long the Raptors are not intimidated at all about playing this one at New Jersey. In fact, the Raptors already pummeled the Nets in New Jersey earlier this season. As for the Nets, they're getting nothing from their key players, Vince Carter and Devin Harris, in recent games. Those guys have been well below par and have been very inconsistent. This is "taxing" the whole team and, overall, the mood of the entire team is down right now. The Raptors are worth a look as a small play on Wednesday night.
LT Profits
Vanderbilt +6.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores are in a bit of a tailspin now as they have lost three straight games, but we feel that has actually resulted in some nice line value here as they visit the South Carolina Gamecocks.
The Commodores were torched for 94 points by the Florida Gators on Sunday, but they had actually been playing quite well defensively before that atrocious effort, and we look for the defense to bounce back here.
After all, Vanderbilt is still allowing just 61.6 points per game this season even after the Florida game, and they are limiting their opponents to just 38.4 percent shooting from the field. Furthermore, the 39.8 percent shooting they are allowing in two-point attempts ranks them seventh in the country in that category.
That makes for a tough matchup for the Gamecocks, as they are only converting on 49.6 percent of their two-point shots, ranking 109 in the country. Sure, South Carolina is capable of making three-pointers at 38.2 percent, but we do not feel they will shoot enough of them here to build up a hefty lead.
Finally, Vanderbilt is a much better offensive rebounding team than South Carolina, so we feel that the combination of second chance points and stiff defense should result in a tight game not decided until the final buzzer.
Pick: Vanderbilt +6.5
Tom Stryker
OHIO STATE (-) over Michigan
The Maize and Blue have played extremely well in Ann Arbor. However, get the Wolverines on foreign courts and they can easily be defeated. For instance, as a guest coming off a straight up win, UM is a soft 16-33-1 ATS including 10-27 ATS in Big 10 play. With those two parameters combined and Michigan matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .800, this team trend crashes to an ugly 6-22-1 ATS!
With Matta on the sidelines, State has cruised to a nearly perfect 8-1 SU record in this series. Equally impressive, as a conference home dog or favorite of -6 or less and matched up against a Big 10 foe that carries a won/loss percentage of .667 or better, the Buckeyes are a profitable 38-22 ATS. In this role sporting a won/loss percentage of .470 or better, OSU improves to a sizzling 30-14 ATS!
With losses in three of its last four games, Michigan hasn't been playing its best basketball of the season. It won't get any easier for the Wolverines here either. The Buckeyes are nearly invincible at VCA and they're hungry for a win. Take Ohio State.