Cajun Sports
Minnesota Gophers vs. Michigan State Spartans -9
PLAY: 2* Minnesota Gophers +9
The Breslin Center in East Lansing will be the site of tonights Big 10 clash between the host Spartans of Michigan State and the visiting Gophers from the University of Minnesota. Minnesota enters tonight’s contest off a home win over Illinois 59 to 36 while the Spartans are still reeling from a home loss on Sunday to Penn State as a 12.5 point favorite, 72 to 68.
Minnesota is 18-3 straight up and 10-6 against the spread this season. The Gophers solid play has continued when they hit the highway as their 5-1 straight up record indicates and they are also a money-making 4-2 against the number in those six contests. Minnesota is averaging 67.3 points per game on the road versus teams that only allow 65.2 points per game; defensively the Gophers are allowing 65.8 points per game to teams that average 68.2 points per game. The positive point differential the Gophers enjoy continues to be one of the reasons for their success when playing on the road and will be the reason they are able to keep this one close.
Michigan State is 17-4 straight up this season overall but they are only .500 against the spread with a record of 9-9 on the year. The Spartans have been pretty good on their home floor posting a straight up record of 7-3 but they have really struggled against the number with a money-burning 3-6 ATS mark. The Spartans have solid point differentials but they do not translate into ATS wins for their backers. MSU is averaging 77.1 points per game at home this season against teams that would normally only allow 65 points per game and on the defensive end of the floor the Spartans are only allowing 66.3 points per game to teams that average 70.2 points per game.
Technical support for our selection comes from both teams on the floor tonight. We see that the Gophers cover a high percentage of their games after holding opponents to 30 or fewer points in the first quarter of their last two games; their record is 7-1 ATS in this situation. MSU struggles after playing a game as a favorite especially when they are now at home as their 2-14 ATS record would indicate. They are also 9-18 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite and 2-10 ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite. Finally we have a CBB System that tells us to Play AGAINST college basketball teams that have gone over the posted total in their last four games and are now installed as a conference favorite of 7 to 10 points, these teams are 20-37-1 ATS their last 58 in this situation.
When comparing common opponents the Spartans are 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS averaging 70.6 points per game on 45.1 percent shooting from the field while allowing their opponents to score 64.9 points per game on 44.9 percent from the field. The Gophers are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread, having a much better record ATS than MSU against the same opponents. Minnesota averaged 64.6 points per game on 44.9 percent from the field and held their opponents to 55.4 points per game on 37.1 percent shooting.
Combine all the fundamental, situational and technical factors in this game and they lead to only one conclusion that is to back the visitor here as the Gophers take the Spartans down to the last possession.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Minnesota 69 Michigan State 72
Dave Cokin
Houston @ Central Florida
Play: UCF -3
The wheels have suddenly come off for Houston. The Cougars had a massive late collapse at Arizona a few games back and they haven't won since. That does not bode at all well for them this evening, as Central Florida has been absolute money in the bank at home all season. Houston is probably the slightly more talented team, but the situation favors UCF, so my lean is to the home favorite.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: New York Knicks
Yes, the Cavs have been the surprise team in the league this season and LeBron James is having an MVP career year. But when a new coach comes in and turns a program around 180 degrees during the first-half of a season we must stand up and take notice. Thats what Mike Da Antoni has done for the Knicks, a team thats gone from the slums to a middle-class neighborhood in the Eastern Conference ever since his arrival from Phoenix this season. New York has never shied away from taking points in this series, going 18-9-4 ATS, including 4-0-1 against an unrested Cleveland squad. With King James perhaps more concerned with a revenge rematch against Kobe and the Lakers from a 105-88, worse loss of the season beating up next, we'll bite into the Big Apple. Take the points with New York.
Bobby Maxwell
Portland +3' at DALLAS
We are on fire with FREE plays, delivering winners in eight of the last 10 days, including Tuesdays easy winner with Marquette. Tonight we've got a comp play on the Blazers as they travel to Dallas to face the Mavs.
The Blazers are on a great run right now and there's no way we're going against them in this one. We'll grab the points and play Portland against the soft Mavericks.
Portland overcame a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit at New Orleans on Monday, outscoring the Hornets 38-15 in the fourth quarter to win 97-89 as a three-point road 'dog. The Blazers are riding a 5-0 SU and ATS winning streak, including their last two on the road.
Portland has gone 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings with the Mavericks and they are 2-1 ATS in their last three visits to Dallas. And in this rivalry, the underdog has gotten the cash in five of the last six. The Blazers have some payback on their minds after losing 102-94 in Portland earlier this season.
This is a good young Portland team and with stars like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge and don't look now but Greg Oden is having an impact right now. The Blazers have cashed in four straight against the Western Conference, and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Southwest Division, including 4-1 ATS in their last five after getting a day off.
Dallas is coming home after a two-game road trip in Florida and they have been pretty bad at home this season. The Mavs are just 6-16 ATS at home, 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 as a favorite of less than five points and 4-11 ATS against Northwest Division teams.
We'll grab the points and play the red-hot Blazers in this one.
2♦ PORTLAND
Duke -4 at CLEMSON
Clemson got a lot of publicity for opening the season with 16 straight wins, but then these guys finally played a good opponent and they got smashed by Wake Forest and North Carolina. Well, tonight they are facing a team just as good, if not better, than those two in Duke and the Blue Devils will deliver another double-digit loss to the Tigers.
Clemson had to rally from a 15-point second-half deficit Thursday to beat Virginia Tech 86-82. But the Tigers allowed the Hokies to shoot 50.8 percent from the floor and if they are letting teams get easy wins, Duke is going to roll them tonight.
Duke went to Wake Forest and lost on a last-second shot a week ago, but they rebounded to destroy Virginia on Sunday, 79-54 as a 22 1/2-point favorite. The Blue Devils are 6-1 in conference play while Clemson sits at 4-2.
Duke had a 22-game winning streak over Clemson snapped last year in the ACC tourney. But in this rivalry, the visitor is 6-3 ATS in the last nine regular-season meetings. Duke has got the offense to make this one a laugher if the Tigers don't play defense. We like the Blue Devils in this one.
3♦ DUKE
Erik Scheponik
Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Under 180
These two Eastern conference rivals have played UNDER in 20 of the last 27 meetings and see no reason for this one not to go that way as the pace should be relatively slow, and Detroit is really having offensive woes right now. The Pistons are 4-15-1 UNDER their last 21 games in regulation, averaging a woeful 85 ppg during that span. Tonight they are without Rodney Stuckey, an up-tempo, effective offensive player, and that will hurt them even further. Two of the NBA's bottom 10 in pace keep this one on the low side. Detroit 87-85. PLAY UNDER
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Boston Bruins
Boston is 37-14 in their last 51 games overall. In their last 21 road games the Bruins are 16-5. Boston is 37-17 in their last 54 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Boston has won 7 of their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Flyers haven't played since Feb. 1st and in their last 9 games played after 3 days of rest or more, the Flyers are 2-7. Philadelphia is 1-4 in their last 5 games hosting the Bruins. Boston has won the last 3 meetings. Play on the Boston Bruins -.
ROZ JUARBE
PHOENIX SUNS / GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Take Over
You will see a lot of things this game...except defense. Phoenix allows the 6th most points in the NBA, but at least they have their offense on track, scoring 129 points the last game. In fact, they are on a 2-1 run over the total. Golden State is dead last in the NBA allowing 111 ppg. They just allowed 110 points in back to back games to Houston and San Antonio -- two slower, defensive-oriented squads. This shapes up as a run-and-gun encounter from start to finish. Play the Suns/Warriors over the total.
JIM FEIST
DENVER NUGGETS / OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take Over
These teams are in the top 12 in points allowed in the NBA. As far as field goal shooting defense is concerned, an excellent indicator of defensive effort, Oklahoma City allows over 47% from the field, 5th worst in the league. They are playing less and less 'D', on a 6-3 run over the total, which is not surprising as they are going nowhere. Uptempo Denver is on an 11-6-1 run over the total. These teams met 4 weeks ago and Denver won 122-120, sailing over the total by 36 points! Play the Nuggets/Warriors over the total.
SPORTS ADVISORS
West Virginia (15-6, 8-10 ATS) at (20) Syracuse (17-5, 8-10 ATS)
Syracuse looks to snap a season-high three-game slide when it returns to the Carrier Dome for a Big East battle with West Virginia.
The Orange have been idle since last Wednesday’s 100-94 loss at Providence as a three-point road underdog, the team’s third consecutive defeat and its fourth in the last five games, both SU and ATS. Syracuse set season highs for both points scored and points allowed, and they lost despite shooting 50.8 percent overall, including hitting 12 of 25 from three-point range, but they let the Friars shoot 53.7 percent and they committed 21 turnovers. The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in the Orange’s last seven games (4-0 ATS at home).
West Virginia has split its last eight contests (3-5 ATS) and is coming off Saturday’s 69-63 loss at Louisville, though it rallied late to cash as a 6½-point road underdog. It was the fifth time in the last eight games that the Mountaineers scored 67 points or less, and they lost four of those five contests. Bob Huggins’ team is just 2-5 against ranked foes this season (4-3 ATS).
Syracuse is 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS in Big East play, including 3-1 SU and ATS at home. The Mountaineers are 4-4 SU and ATS in league action, including 2-2 (3-1 ATS) on the highway.
West Virginia snapped an eight-game losing skid to Syracuse with an 81-61 rout as a 9½-point home favorite in last year’s lone meeting. The Orange are still 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups, and the favorite is 5-2 ATS during this stretch.
The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the highway and 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, but they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight on Wednesday, 1-4 ATS in their last five after an outright defeat and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after a spread-cover. Syracuse carries ATS slumps of 1-4 overall, 1-5 on Wednesday, 1-4 after a SU loss and 2-10 after scoring more than 90 points in their pervious game.
The over is 11-5 in West Virginia’s last 16 roadies, 5-2 in Syracuse’s last seven overall, 11-5 in Syracuse’s last 11 at home and 5-1 in Syracuse’s last five on Wednesday. However, the under is 4-1 in the last five series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(19) Minnesota (18-3, 9-6-1 ATS) at (13) Michigan State (17-4, 9-8-1 ATS)
Having suffered back-to-back stunning losses at the Breslin Center, Michigan State will attempt to reestablish its home-court swagger when it hosts Big Ten rival Minnesota.
The Spartans had an 11-game overall and a 28-game home winning streak snapped on Jan. 21 when they fell 70-63 to Northwestern as a 12-point favorite. They rebounded with a pair of double-digit road wins at Ohio State (78-67) and Iowa (71-56) before coming home Sunday and getting clipped 72-68 by Penn State as a 12½-point chalk. It’s the first time since December 1997 that Michigan State has suffered consecutive home losses.
Minnesota has followed up two straight losses to Northwestern (74-65 on the road) and Purdue (70-62 at home) with a pair of victories over Indiana (67-63) and Illinois (59-36). With Thursday’s 23-point rout of the then-19th-ranked Illini, the Gophers snapped a 20-game losing skid to Illinois, and in cashing as a one-point home favorite they halted a three-game ATS slide. The 36 points easily the fewest Minnesota has allowed this season, as the Gophers gave up just 15 field goals in 51 attempts (29.4 percent).
The Spartans still sit atop the Big Ten standings at 7-2 (4-4-1 ATS), one game ahead of Minnesota (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS).
Michigan State ran its winning streak over the Gophers to four in a row (3-1 ATS) with a 70-58 rout as a one-point road underdog on New Year’s Eve. The Spartans are 9-1 (6-4 ATS) in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including 5-0 (3-2 ATS) in East Lansing. Four of those five home wins were by double digits, the lone exception being last year’s 65-59 triumph as an 11-point favorite.
Minnesota is on ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 8-3 against winning teams, 3-1 as an underdog this season, 8-2 after a SU win and 4-1 after a non-cover. Michigan State is 1-5 ATS in its last six at the Breslin Center and 2-7 ATS in its nine as a favorite of more than seven points, but otherwise the Spartans are on ATS streaks of 7-0 after a defeat and 4-1 after a non-cover.
The over is on stretches of 5-1 for the Gophers overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-1 for the Gophers on the road, 4-0 for the Spartans overall (all in the Big Ten) and 6-2 for the Spartans after a SU loss. However, the under is 4-1 in the last five series meetings between these schools and 6-1 in the last seven battles at Michigan State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
(4) Duke (19-2, 11-8-1 ATS) at (10) Clemson (18-2, 7-7-1 ATS)
Clemson faces its third Top 5 ACC opponent in the last five games when it hosts No. 4 Duke at Littlejohn Coliseum.
Clemson started the season with 16 straight victories than ran up against its two toughest opponents – Wake Forest and North Carolina – and got steamrolled in both contests, losing 78-68 to the Demon Deacons as a 2½-point home chalk and 94-70 at Carolina as a 13-point road ‘dog. However, the Tigers have rebounded with a pair of wins and covers over Georgia Tech (73-59) and Virginia Tech (86-82). In Thursday’s victory at the Hokies, Clemson rallied from a 15-point second-half deficit and won despite getting outshot 50.8 percent to 43.3 percent, but the Tigers did hit on 14 of 25 attempts from three-point range.
The Blue Devils bounced back from a last Wednesday’s last-second 70-68 loss at Wake Forest as a two-point road favorite with Sunday’s 79-54 home rout of Virginia. Duke cashed as a 22½-point chalk, but it is just 3-4-1 ATS in its last five games, including 1-2 ATS in ACC roadies.
Duke is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in conference, while Clemson is 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) in the ACC.
The Tigers dumped Duke 78-74 in the semifinals of last year’s ACC tournament as a 4½-point road underdog, snapping a 22-game losing skid in this rivalry. Clemson is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, all as an underdog, and its last two losses to the Blue Devils at Littlejohn Coliseum were by a total of nine points. The visitor has cashed in six of the last nine regular-season clashes in this rivalry.
The Blue Devils are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games on Wednesday and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 after a spread-cover. Clemson is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine ACC contests since last year and 2-0 ATS this year as a single-digit underdog, but the Tigers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight at home.
Duke sports nothing but “under” streaks, including 22-6 overall (4-0 last four), 13-3 against ACC foes, 5-1 on the road, 6-0 on Wednesday, 16-5 after a SU win, 6-0 after a victory of more than 20 points and 11-2 after a non-cover. The under is also 5-2 in Clemson’s last seven overall and 6-0 in its last six at home. On the flip side, the over is 4-1 both in the last five overall meetings between these schools and 4-1 in the last five tussles at Littlejohn.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Missouri (18-4, 8-7 ATS) at (16) Texas (15-5, 8-9 ATS)
Texas will try to rebound from a shocking overtime home loss to Kansas State when it entertains surprising Missouri in Austin.
The Longhorns trailed most of the way against K-State on Saturday and despite a furious rally to force overtime, they came up short 85-81 as a 10½-point home chalk. The defeat ended Texas’ three-game overall winning streak and a 19-game run at home, the latter being the fourth-longest home-court streak in the nation. Rick Barnes’ team, which committed 20 turnovers in Saturday’s loss, has been a disaster at the betting window of late, going 2-5 ATS in the last seven.
Missouri had a four-game winning streak snapped at Kansas State a week ago tonight, but the Tigers rebounded with Saturday’s 89-72 rout of Baylor, covering as a 6½-point home favorite. Mizzou’s offense has been clicking, putting up 86.4 ppg (46.3 percent shooting) in its last five games, all against Big 12 foes.
While the Tigers are 5-2 in the Big 12 (4-3 ATS), they’re 1-2 SU and ATS on the road. Texas is 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in league play, including 0-3 ATS at home.
The Tigers ended a 10-game SU and ATS losing skid to Texas with last year’s 97-84 victory as a one-point home underdog. However, going back to 2001, Missouri has made four trips to Austin, going 0-4 SU and ATS and losing by an average of 17 ppg (all double-digit defeats). Finally, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six series clashes.
Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a SU defeat and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 following a non-cover. However, the ‘Horns are on pointspread slides of 2-5 overall, 1-6 at home, 3-8-1 in Big 12 action and 2-5 against winning teams. The Tigers are also on a bevy of ATS slides, including 20-41-2 on the road, 16-37-1 in conference, 8-22-1 on Wednesday, 2-6 after a SU win and 3-9 after an ATS setback.
For Missouri, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall (all in the Big 12), 4-1 on the road, 5-0 on Wednesday and 11-4 after a spread-cover. The over is also 5-2 in Texas’ last seven Big 12 contests. However, the under is on a 4-1-1 tear in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
USC (15-6, 10-9 ATS) at (15) UCLA (17-4, 10-10 ATS)
UCLA goes for the season sweep of crosstown rival USC in this clash of streaking Pac-10 foes at Pauley Pavilion.
The Bruins are coming off their most impressive weekend of the season, pounding both Cal (81-66) and Stanford (97-63), easily covering as a 10-point home chalk in both contests. UCLA, which is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games, used a 19-0 run early in the second half to put away Stanford on Saturday and finished shooting a blistering 63.3 percent from the field, including 73.3 percent from three-point land (11-for-15). Defensively, the Bruins held the Cardinal to 38.5 percent shooting and forced 19 turnovers.
Like the Bruins, USC is coming off a weekend sweep at home of the northern California schools, the first being a 70-69 win over Stanford as a 5½-point chalk followed by Saturday’s 73-62 rout of Cal as a five-point favorite. Since falling 64-60 to UCLA at home on Jan. 11, the Trojans have won five of their last six games (4-2 ATS), including the last three in a row (2-1 ATS).
UCLA is tied with Washington for first place in the Pac-10 at 7-2 (5-4 ATS), including 3-1 SU and ATS at home. USC is one game back at 6-3 (5-4 ATS), including 2-2 (3-1 ATS) on the highway.
With last month’s victory on the Trojans’ home court, the Bruins have taken three straight, five of the last six and eight of the last 10 in this rivalry. However, USC is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall and 6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to Pauley Pavilion, including last year’s shocking 72-63 road win as a 12-point underdog. The pup has cashed in 11 of the last 15 head-to-head battles, and the visitor is 4-0 ATS in the last four.
USC is on pointspread runs of 3-1 overall, 24-9 on the road and 4-1 as an underdog this season, but it is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 after a spread-cover. In fact, the Trojans have covered in consecutive games just once this season. The Bruins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against inning teams, but 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after a spread-cover and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after a victory of more than 20 points.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 for USC overall (all in Pac-10 action), 4-0 for USC after a victory, 4-0 for the Bruins overall (all in Pac-10 action), 5-1 for the Bruins on Wednesday and 7-3 for the Bruins after an ATS triumph. However, the last three series meetings between these squads have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC
NBA
Miami (26-21, 22-23-2 ATS) at Detroit (25-21, 19-27 ATS)
The freefalling Pistons go back to work after two days off when they welcome the Heat to the Palace of Auburn Hills for an Eastern Conference battle.
Detroit fell apart in the fourth quarter against LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Sunday, getting outscored 32-14 en route to a 90-80 loss as a 4½-point home underdog. Overall, the Pistons have dropped two in a row, four of their last five and nine of their last 12, with the SU winner covering the spread in each game. During this 12-game rut, Detroit is 1-6 SU and ATS at home, including 0-4 SU and ATS in the last four at the Palace.
Miami put an end to a two-game SU and ATS mini slump with Monday’s 119-95 rout of the dreadful Clippers, covering as a 9½-point home favorite. The Heat are 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games, including 4-3 (5-2 ATS) on the highway. The SU winner is 10-0 ATS in the team’s last 10 contests and 14-1 ATS in the last 15, and the winner is 19-3-1 ATS in Miami’s 22 roadies.
This is the first meeting this season between these longtime rivals. Last year, Detroit swept the four-game series (2-2 ATS) and it has won the last five against the Heat (2-2-1 ATS). However, Miami is still 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head battles, including 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Motown. The visitor has cashed in each of the last four meetings.
In addition to their 9-4 ATS run overall, the Heat are on positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 against the Central Division, 5-2 on the road and 6-1 after one day of rest, but they’re also on ATS nosedives of 9-19-1 on Wednesday, 5-14 as a road underdog of less than five points, 13-32-3 after a SU win and 3-8-2 after a double-digit win. Although the Pistons are in ATS funks of 8-20 at home, 6-14 as a chalk, 1-4 against the Eastern Conference, 0-6 against winning teams and 3-11 after a SU loss, they’re 8-1 ATS in their last nine Wednesday contests and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a double-digit home defeat.
For Miami, the over is on streaks of 10-4 overall, 7-1 on the road and 6-2 when playing on one day of rest. Conversely, the Pistons are on a bevy of “under” runs, including 26-10-1 overall, 7-3-1 at home, 38-18 against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 against the Southeast Division, 7-1 on Wednesday, 16-5-1 versus winning teams and 20-7-1 when going on two days’ rest. Also, the under is 9-4 in Miami’s last 13 against the Central Division, 20-8-1 in the Heat’s last 29 against winning teams, 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings in this rivalry and 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head battles in Motown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Portland (30-17, 24-22 ATS) at Dallas (28-19, 22-25 ATS)
The Mavericks return home from a successful two-game swing through Florida as they put a three-game SU and ATS winning streak on the line against the red-hot Blazers.
Since suffering an ugly 124-100 loss at Boston back on Jan. 25, Dallas has ripped off three straight double-digit wins over the Warriors (117-93 as a seven-point home chalk), Heat (111-96 as a two-point road favorite) and Magic (105-95 as a 7½-point road underdog). In Monday’s victory in Orlando, Dirk Nowitzki scored 29 points as the Mavs shot 53.4 percent from the field and held the sharp-shooting Magic 42.7 percent, including a woeful 3-for-20 effort from three-point range.
Portland overcame a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit at New Orleans on Monday, outscoring the Hornets 38-15 in the final stanza to win 97-89 as a three-point road underdog. The Blazers are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run, including consecutive wins and covers on the road after going 2-5 SU in their previous seven on the highway and 2-9 ATS in their previous 11 as a visitor.
Dallas has scored at least 100 points in five straight games (4-1 SU and ATS), averaging 109 ppg on 52 percent shooting while giving up 99.8 ppg on 44.8 percent shooting. Meanwhile, the Blazers are putting up 104 ppg (50.1 percent) and allowing just 89.2 ppg (46 percent) during their five-game winning streak.
The SU winner is 9-0 ATS in Dallas’ last nine games (3-0 at home) and 24-1 ATS in Portland’s last 25, including 12-0 ATS in the last 12 and 9-0 ATS on the road.
The Mavericks took the first meeting this season 102-94 in Portland as a 4½-point road underdog. That snapped a six-game winning streak by the home team in this rivalry (4-2 ATS). Dallas has won eight of the last 10 head-to-head battles, but the Blazers are 4-2 ATS in the last six, including 2-1 ATS in their last three trips to Dallas. Also, the underdog has covered in five of the last six in this rivalry.
The Blazers have cashed in four straight games against Western Conference foes and they’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Southwest Division and 4-1 ATS in their last five after one day of rest, but they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five on Wednesday and 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a pup. Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight on Wednesday, but 6-16 ATS in its last 22 at home, 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 as a favorite of less than five points and 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against the Northwest Division.
The under is on streaks of 55-26 for Dallas against Northwest Division opponents, 16-7 for Portland against the Southwest Division, 44-19-1 for Portland on Wednesday, 21-7 for Portland as an underdog and 12-3 for Portland against winning teams. Additionally, 12 of the last 16 meetings in this rivalry have stayed low, with the under going 8-0 in the last eight clashes in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and UNDER
Brian Hansen
Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: Under
Buffalo is coming off a 3-2 road loss, and I look for them to be shaky on the offensive end again tonight. Toronto is coming off a 4-3 OT loss at home to Florida, but I look for it to buckle down on the defensive end tonight on the road. Buffalo has seen the total go under the number in 4 of 5 games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season and I expect this trend to continue tonight; play on the UNDER!
John Martin
1 Unit on Syracuse Orange -2
The Syracuse Orange have hit their worst stretch of the season. Syracuse has lost 3 straight games to Pitt, Louisville and Providence. Clearly, this was a brutal stretch of games and it doesn’t get much easier against West Virginia Wednesday, but I fully expect the Orange to get back on track on their home floor tonight. Syracuse is 13-2 at home this season, winning by 14.6 points/game. What I really like about Syracuse tonight is that they have taken care of the Mountaineers at home in the past. Syracuse is a perfect 6-0 SU in their last 6 home games vs. West Virginia. The Orange have won 12 of their last 15 meetings with WVU overall. West Virginia is 11-34 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less since 1997. Although WVU lost to Louisville by just 6 points last game, that contest was a much bigger blowout than the final score indicated. The Mountaineers came back in the second half to make it interesting. WVU clearly struggles against the better offensive teams, and Syracuse classifies as one of those squads scoring 80.0 points/game overall. West Virginia is 1-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season. Also, Syracuse plays a zone defense that forces their opponents to shoot the 3-ball. WVU is shooting just 29.9% from 3-point range in road games this season. Cash in with Syracuse as the favorite
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5
The Lakers just went into NY and got a 9-point win as a 5.5-point favorite behind a huge night from Kobe. Now it's LeBron's turn. Expect a huge night from LeBron in the Garden and also a much better defensive effort from the Cavs as they are a much better defensive team than LA. Last March James put 50 up in MSG so he is more than capable of going off tonight. Cleveland has been a tough team for the Knicks because of its defense, winning by 18 in NY earlier this season and by 36 at home. Cleveland is a perfect 8-0 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season, winning these games by an average score of 103.6 to 87.1. Lay the number.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Atlanta Hawks +1
The Atlanta Hawks catch a tired Minnesota Timberwolves team Wednesday up in Minneapolis. Minnesota just played last night in a 116-111 barn-burner at Indiana. We’ll side with the more rested team in the Hawks tonight who are working on 3 days’ rest heading in. Atlanta hasn’t played since Saturday, which was a 3-point loss at Milwaukee. So the Hawks have had 3 full days to steam over that loss, and they’ll come in determined and focused to get the win in Minneapolis Wednesday. This will be Minnesota’s 3rd game in 4 days, and there’s no doubt they will be feeling tired. Minnesota has had to face the Lakers, Celtics and Pacers in their last 3 games, so they have to be mentally and physically drained after that tough slate of games. It won’t get any easier tonight against an Atlanta team that is very hungry for a win after losing 4 of their last 5 games overall. Minnesota is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Timberwolves are 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots since 1996. The Hawks come off a great shooting performance, and they come into this game as the much fresher team. Take Atlanta and the points.
Info Plays
3* on Boston College -2
Reasons why Boston College covers the spread Wednesday:
1.) Virginia is the worst team in the ACC. The Cavaliers are just 1-5 in ACC play, losing 5 straight games. Virginia is now 7-10 on the season, and this is clearly a rebuilding year. The Cavaliers’ last two games weren’t even competitive, losing at home to Florida State by 11 and losing at Duke by 25. Virginia can’t seem to get anything going, and now they run into a red hot Boston College squad Wednesday which won’t make matters any easier.
2.) Boston College is on fire. The Eagles beat the North Carolina Tar Heels on the road back in early January. After that win, it was expected this team would have a letdown and boy did they ever. The Eagles went on to lose their next 4 games following that win over the Tar Heels. But BC has finally come back to reality and re-focused over the last 2 weeks. Boston College is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games, earning big wins over Georgia Tech, NC State, Maryland and Virginia Tech. Those are 4 teams that are all better than Virginia. This is a streaky Eagles’ team this season and you certainly want to back them when they are as hot as they are right now.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VIRGINIA) - off 2 straight losses against conference rivals against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. This is a 153-95 ATS System hitting 61.7% since 1997. Virginia is 0-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1997. BC is 10-2 ATS in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts since 1997. The Cavaliers are shooting a horrendous 27.7% from 3-point range at home, and the Eagles allow teams to shoot just 29.8% from distance on the season. Virginia’s bread and butter has always been their 3-point shooting, but it’s simply not there this season. Bet Boston College on the road.
DUNKEL
Atlanta at Minnesota
The Hawks are 3-0 ATS in road games where the total is between 200 and 204 1/2, while the Timberwolves are 0-3 ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less. The Hawks are the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has Atlanta favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1).
Game 501-502: LA Lakers at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 124.330; Toronto 116.471
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 206
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 214
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-7); Under
Game 503-504: LA Clippers at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 106.674; Orlando 129.804
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 23; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 13 1/2; 198
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-13 1/2); Over
Game 505-506: New Jersey at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 111.275; Washington 112.728
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 196 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 194
Dunkel Pick: Washington; Over
Game 507-508: Cleveland at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.395; New York 117.552
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 7; 214 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: Miami at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 115.467; Detroit 120.265
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 5; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 182
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Over
Game 511-512: Houston at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.442; Memphis 111.654
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 7; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 513-514: Denver at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.217; Oklahoma City 118.251
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+6); Under
Game 515-516: Atlanta at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.199; Minnesota 115.207
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 202
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Over
Game 517-518: Chicago at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.275; New Orleans 123.822
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 519-520: Portland at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 122.227; Dallas 124.752
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 2 1/2; 192 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 198
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+4); Under
Game 521-522: Phoenix at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.841; Golden State 114.330
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 229
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3); Under
NCAAB
Texas A&M at Oklahoma
The defensive-minded Aggies have allowed just 63.9 points per game this year, but run into an Oklahoma team that is 6-2 ATS against good defensive teams (<=64 points per game). The Sooners are the pick (-13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Oklahoma favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-13 1/2).
Game 523-524: Iowa at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 60.578; Indiana 55.066
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa by 3
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-3)
Game 525-526: Richmond at Massachusetts
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 56.486; Massachusetts 62.482
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 6
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-4 1/2)
Game 527-528: Wichita State at Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 58.106; Indiana State 54.603
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State
Game 529-530: Tulsa at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 63.925; Marshall 58.744
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 5
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-2 1/2)
Game 531-532: Ball State at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 51.953; Miami (OH) 61.118
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 9
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+13 1/2)
Game 533-534: West Virginia at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 73.512; Syracuse 73.723
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 3
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+3)
Game 535-536: Northeastern at William & Mary
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 58.198; William & Mary 51.640
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+9 1/2)
Game 537-538: Southern Mississippi at East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 60.884; East Carolina 54.401
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-2 1/2)
Game 539-540: Boston College at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 63.728; Virginia 63.949
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Boston College by 2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+2)
Game 541-542: Western Michigan at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 52.854; Bowling Green 55.477
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+5 1/2)
Game 543-544: Houston at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 61.994; Central Florida 68.773
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 7
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 3
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-3)
Game 545-546: Dayton at LaSalle
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 60.410; LaSalle 63.390
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 3
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 1
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-1)
Game 547-548: George Washington at St. Joseph's
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 47.585; St. Joseph's 62.970
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-11 1/2)
Game 549-550: VA Commonwealth at NC Wilmington
Dunkel Ratings: VA Commonwealth 60.630; NC Wilmington 45.637
Dunkel Line: VA Commonwealth by 15
Vegas Line: VA Commonwealth by 16
Dunkel Pick: NC Wilmington (+16)
Game 551-552: Utah at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 67.691; TCU 60.876
Dunkel Line: Utah by 7
Vegas Line: Utah by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-3 1/2)
Game 553-554: LSU at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 70.168; Georgia 59.564
Dunkel Line: LSU by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LSU by 7
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-7)
Game 555-556: Wake Forest at Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 74.831; Miami (FL) 67.996
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 7
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-2)
Game 557-558: Notre Dame at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 65.794; Cincinnati 66.998
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2)
Game 559-560: James Madison at Georgia State
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 53.325; Georgia State 52.796
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 1
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 1
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (+1)
Game 561-562: Villanova at Providence
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 69.089; Providence 70.107
Dunkel Line: Providence by 1
Vegas Line: Villanova by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+2 1/2)
Game 563-564: Tennessee at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 66.437; Arkansas 65.256
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+4)
Game 565-566: Tulane at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 50.033; UAB 70.588
Dunkel Line: UAB by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: UAB by 16
Dunkel Pick: UAB (-16)
Game 567-568: Drexel at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 56.659; Delaware 52.641
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 4
Vegas Line: Drexel by 2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-2)
Game 569-570: Creighton at Drake
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 60.651; Drake 58.133
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 1
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-1)
Game 571-572: Auburn at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 62.267; Mississippi 64.490
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 4
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+4)
Game 573-574: Duquesne at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 59.297; St. Louis 59.231
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (+2)
Game 575-576: Evansville at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 57.429; Missouri State 58.612
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 1
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+3)
Game 577-578: Illinois State at Southern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 62.436; Southern Illinois 62.076
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 1
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+1)
Game 579-580: Minnesota at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 69.168; Michigan State 72.971
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 4
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9)
Game 581-582: Duke at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 80.567; Clemson 73.326
Dunkel Line: Duke by 7
Vegas Line: Duke by 4
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-4)
Game 583-584: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 56.647; Oklahoma State 70.675
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 14
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-11 1/2)
Game 585-586: Texas A&M at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 62.936; Oklahoma 79.015
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 16
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-13 1/2)
Game 587-588: Memphis at SMU
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 74.021; SMU 55.536
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-16 1/2)
Game 589-590: Missouri at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 70.529; Texas 73.017
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 5
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+5)
Game 591-592: Nebraska at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 66.526; Colorado 58.068
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 4
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-4)
Game 593-594: USC at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: USC 68.879; UCLA 75.220
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 9
Dunkel Pick: USC (+9)
Game 595-596: Murray State at Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 53.802; Tennessee State 48.993
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 5
Vegas Line: Murray State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+6)
NHL
Anaheim at Minnesota
The Wild look to take advantage of an Anaheim team that is just 2-4 in road games where the total is 5 or less. Minnesota is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140).
Game 51-52: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.744; Philadelphia 13.062
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Over
Game 53-54: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.233; Pittsburgh 13.257
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 55-56: Phoenix at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.831; Detroit 12.493
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-320); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-320); Over
Game 57-58: Toronto at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.620; Buffalo 10.020
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+170); Over
Game 59-60: Anaheim at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.757; Minnesota 12.533
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140); Under