SPORTS ADVISORS
Penn State (18-8, 11-7-1 ATS) at (22) Illinois (21-5, 13-8-1 ATS)
Illinois shoots for its fourth consecutive victory when it hosts Penn State, which is looking to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume with a third victory this season over a Top 25 team.
The Illini routed Indiana 65-52 as a 10½-point road favorite on Sunday, continuing their outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Illinois has given up 63 points or less in 11 consecutive games, going 8-3 during this stretch (6-4-1 ATS) and allowing an average of 50.6 ppg in the eight victories. On the down side, Bruce Weber’s squad hasn’t scored more than 67 points in 10 straight games, averaging just 59.3 ppg during this stretch.
The Nittany Lions snapped a three-game SU and ATS slide with Saturday’s 68-63 victory over Minnesota as a 2½-point home favorite. Penn State shot just 43 percent from the field overall, but 47.8 percent (11-for-23) from three-point range as the offense finally delivered after scoring just 51, 44 and 47 points during the three-game losing streak.
Illinois is in second place in the Big Ten at 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, including 6-0 at home (4-1-1 ATS). Penn State is 7-6 in league play (7-5-1 ATS), including 2-4 as a visitor (3-3 ATS). The Nittany Lions have faced five Top 25 teams – all Big Ten rivals – going 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.
These teams met three times last year. Penn State took the first two meetings as an underdog, prevailing 68-64 as an eight-point road pup and 52-51 as a five-point home ‘dog. But Illinois got revenge in the Big Ten tournament with a 64-63 victory, though the Lions covered again as an eight-point underdog. Penn State is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 3-0 ATS at Illinois, all as a pup. Finally, the visitor is on a 4-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Penn State is in ATS slides of 7-15 after a spread-cover and 2-5-1 on Wednesday. The Illini are on pointspread surges of 6-2-1 at home, 28-12-2 on Wednesday and 6-2-1 as a single-digit favorite, but they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five versus winning teams.
The under is on streaks of 5-2-1 for the Nittany Lions overall (all in Big Ten play), 5-2-1 for the Nittany Lions after a SU win, 20-8 for Illinois overall (9-1 in the last 10), 6-1 for Illinois at home, 7-0 for Illinois after a SU win, 37-15-1 for Illinois after an ATS win and 7-2 for Illinois on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS and UNDER
Notre Dame (14-10, 5-13 ATS) at West Virginia (17-8, 10-12 ATS)
Two Big East rivals sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble hook up in Morgantown, where West Virginia hosts resurgent Notre Dame.
The Mountaineers are coming off Friday’s 93-72 rout of red-hot Villanova, cashing easily as a 4½-point home favorite. West Virginia shot 50 percent from the field against the Wildcats and set a season-high mark for points scored, just one game after managing only 59 points in a loss at Pitt. Despite beating Notre Dame, Bob Huggins’ club is still just 3-4 SU in its last seven games and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 (3-5 ATS as a favorite).
Notre Dame has rebounded from an ugly seven-game losing skid with season-saving home wins over then-No. 5 Louisville (90-57) and South Florida (67-57). However, after cashing easily as a four-point home underdog against the Cardinals, the Irish came up short as a 13½-point chalk against South Florida on Sunday, dropping to 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
West Virginia has won and covered three straight home games, all in Big East play, and is 4-2 when hosting league foes (3-3 ATS). Overall, the Mountaineers are 6-6 SU and ATS in conference. The Irish are 5-7 in the Big East (3-9 ATS), but 1-5 SU and ATS on the highway. In fact, since opening conference play with a 92-82 win at DePaul, Notre Dame has lost six consecutive road games (0-6 ATS).
The Fighting Irish have owned this rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 meetings, but the teams have split the cash during this stretch. Last year, Notre Dame rolled 69-56 at home as a 2½-point favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run by the underdog in this series and a 3-0 ATS run by the road team.
In addition to its ATS ruts of 1-9 overall and 0-6 on the road, Notre Dame is in pointspread funks of 1-8 against Big East squads, 1-4 on Wednesday, 2-6 as an underdog and 1-8 versus winning teams. The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS both in their last five Wednesday contests and their last five after a spread-cover.
These teams have stayed under the total in seven consecutive meetings, including four straight “unders” in Morgantown. Also, the under is 7-0 in West Virginia’s last seven against winning teams and 7-0 in Notre Dame’s last seven versus teams above .500. However, the Irish are otherwise on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 6-1 on Wednesday, 21-8 in Big East play and 16-7 after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Miami, Fla. (15-9, 10-8-1 ATS) at Florida State (12-6-1 ATS)
A string of close losses has left Miami, Fla., near the basement in the ACC standings and on the verge of missing out on the Big Dance, putting the Hurricanes in desperation mode as they visit rival Florida State.
Miami battled back from a big second-half hole against third-ranked North Carolina on Sunday, but still came up short 69-65 at home. The Hurricanes are 1-5 in their last six games, with three of the losses coming in overtime and all five defeats being by a total of 21 points. On the bright side, Miami covered as an eight-point underdog against the Tar Heels, improving to 3-0 ATS in its last three games after going 0-3-1 ATS in the previous four.
Florida State’s stay at the bottom of the Top 25 rankings was brief, as it fell 86-63 at Wake Forest on Saturday to snap a three-game winning streak. Despite being 3-1 in their last four games, the Seminoles have only averaged 64.5 ppg in this stretch. Although the ‘Noles never threatened to cover as an 8½-point underdog at Wake, they’re still 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 lined contests.
The Hurricanes are now 4-7 in conference (5-5-1 ATS), including 1-4 on the highway (2-3 ATS). Florida State is 6-4 in the ACC (6-3-1 ATS), including 3-2 SU and ATS at home, with the winner failing to cover in four of those five home games.
Miami dumped the Seminoles 75-69 back on Jan. 21, but pushed as a six-point home favorite, the second straight push in this rivalry. The ‘Canes’ win ended Florida State’s five-game (4-0-1 ATS) stranglehold on this rivalry. The road team is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, the SU winner is also 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 and the ‘dog is on a 5-2-2 ATS roll.
Miami is on pointspread runs of 5-2 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog, 7-2-1 after a SU defeat and 13-6-2 after a spread-cover. The Seminoles are on ATS streaks of 10-3-2 in ACC play, 4-1 after a defeat, 4-1 as a favorite of less than eight points, 5-0-1 after a non-cover and 5-2-1 versus teams with a winning record.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for the ‘Canes overall, 4-1 for the ‘Canes on the road, 4-0 for Florida State on Wednesday, 20-6-1 for Florida State after a SU loss and 4-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and OVER
NBA
Denver (36-17, 30-22-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (27-25, 25-25-2 ATS)
After a full week off, the Nuggets return to the court when they resume an eight-game road trip with a stop at the Wachovia Center for a matchup with the 76ers.
Denver entered the All-Star break on a 9-2 SU run and an 8-4 ATS surge, including consecutive wins and covers in Florida last week – a 99-82 rout of Miami as a 1½-point favorite and an 82-73 victory at Orlando as a seven-point pup. The normally defensively inept Nuggets have held eight of their last 11 opponents under triple digits, and George Karl’s club is 7-3 in its last 10 road games (6-4 ATS).
Philadelphia had its four-game winning streak halted in Tuesday’s 100-89 at Indiana as a two-point underdog. The 76ers’ four-game run (2-1-1 ATS) had all come at home, and they’re still 14-5 in their last 19 overall and 12-6-2 ATS in their last 20. During this run, Philadelphia is 10-3 at home, with the three losses – to the Celtics, Nets and Mavericks – coming by a total of five points. Like the Nuggets, the 76ers are playing great defense, holding seven of nine opponents to 94 points or less.
The Nuggets edged Philadelphia 105-101 on Dec. 26, but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. The host has won the last three meetings SU, but the visitor is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, with Denver going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Philly. Finally, the winner has scored at least 105 points in each of the last five meetings.
Denver is on pointspread runs of 12-2 against the Atlantic Division and 4-1 versus the Eastern Conference, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after taking three or more days off. Philadelphia is on ATS streaks of 4-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Wednesday, in addition to its 12-6-2 overall ATS run.
The under is on runs of 5-2 for the Nuggets on the road, 5-2 for the Nuggets against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 for the 76ers overall, 35-16-1 for the 76ers at home, 5-0 for the 76ers against the Western Conference and 5-2 for the 76ers when playing on back-to-back nights. However, the over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 in Philly’s last five versus the Northwest Division and 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including 3-1 at the Wachovia Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Orlando (39-13, 33-18-1 ATS) at New Orleans (31-20, 21-28-2 ATS)
Two teams coming off narrow victories last night get together in the Big Easy, as the Hornets host the Southeast Division-leading Magic at New Orleans Arena.
New Orleans held off Oklahoma City 100-98 on Tuesday, failing to cover as a 3½-point road chalk. Although the Hornets snapped a two-game skid with the victory, they’re still mired in slumps of 3-6 overall and 2-7 ATS, and they’re 2-4 SU and ATS at home during this rut.
Orlando needed overtime to dispatch Charlotte last night, winning 107-102 but coming up short as an 8½-point home chalk. The Magic have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last seven games overall and their last four on the road. However, Orlando still owns one of the best road records in the NBA at 18-7 SU and 17-7-1 ATS, including 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven.
Although both teams failed to cover the spread in victories last night, the SU winner is still 11-1 ATS in the Hornets’ last 12 games overall, 9-0 ATS in its last nine at home, 16-1 ATS in Orlando’s last 17 overall and 14-0 ATS in Orlando’s last 14 on the road. In fact, the winner is 22-2-1 ATS when the Magic hit the highway this season.
The Magic hammered the Hornets 88-68 as a five-point home favorite back on Christmas Day, and these clubs have alternated SU wins in the last seven clashes going back to 2005. The ‘dog is on an 8-1-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the visitor is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head battles, with the Magic cashing in four of their last five trips to New Orleans.
Orlando carries positive ATS trends of 23-9 overall, 50-24-3 on the road, 35-17-1 against the Western Conference, 6-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 when playing back-to-back contests. However, the Magic have failed to cover in four of their last five against winning teams. New Orleans is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games on Wednesday, but otherwise the Hornets are in ATS funks of 1-4-1 against the Southeast Division and 1-4 when playing on consecutive nights.
These teams have stayed under the total in nine of the last 10 meetings, including the last five in a row overall and the last five in a row in New Orleans. Furthermore, Orlando is on “under” streaks of 4-2 overall, 4-1 against the Western Conference and 5-0 against winning teams. Also, the Hornets are riding “under” streaks of 12-5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 7-1 against the Southeast Division and 7-0 versus winning teams.
Conversely, the over is 7-3 in the Magic’s last 10 road games, 4-1 in the Hornets’ last five at home and 7-3 in the Hornets’ last 10 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
James Patrick
Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
The Big East clash between the Fighting Irish and the Moutaineers is our feature selection as our Wednesday complimentary winner in College Basketball action. The Irish have returned to their winning ways their past two outings and the Mountaineers are off their impressive rout of Villanova. With the series road team 4-1 ATS and the underdog 4-1 ATS these numbers fit the ND Irish well and our selection is Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Dave Cokin
Wichita State @ Illinois State
Play: Illinois State -9'
Wichita State is making some nice progress in the MVC, and the Shockers will likely be a pretty good team next season. They might even be a spoiler in the MVC Tourney. But I think they're in tough tonight. Illinois State is back home off their best game in quite some time as they crushed Drake on the road, and the Redbirds will be eager to get even for a loss absorbed at Wichita earlier. I think the number is a shade short, and the situational strengthener gets me leaning toward Illinois State for tonight's free opinion.
Tom Freese
Denver at Philadelphia
Denver is 23-9 ATS their last 32 games vs. teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60% and they are 21-10 ATS when the Line is +3 to -3. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 meetings in Philly. The Sixers are in a 29-12 ATS Play Against System that says to Go Against teams who had a four game winning streak snapped in their last game if they allowed 100 or more points in that loss. PLAY ON DENVER
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Texas Tech
When it comes to handicapping, we typically break down handicapping into three distinct methods: fundamental, technical and situational. Todays Big 12 matchup combines all three. From a fundamental standpoint, the Red Raiders are just flat out tough to beat at home, winning 80 of their last 96 SU in Lubbock. Technically speaking, the hosts have fared well in this series when avenging a loss, sporting a 4-1 ATS mark and theyve delivered the cash 16 of 23 times at home with conference tourney revenge. It gets better as situational players will love this little gem we uncovered from our database: The visiting Cowboys are coming off a revenge win over Iowa State and are a money-burning 0-7 ATS away after facing the Cyclones. Yes, its Texas Tech(nically) but also fundamentally and situationally as well.
Bobby Maxwell
Denver at PHILADELPHIA +1
Just too tough of a spot here for the Nuggets as they had their eight-game road trip suspended midway through for the All-Star break. So they are on a trip, go on break (more flights) and then fly back to Philly to resume the trip. That's a lot of traveling for the Nuggets. We'll play the Sixers at home in this one.
Philadelphia had won four in a row before losing Tuesday at Indiana 100-89 as a two-point underdog. But that four-game streak all came at home and they are 14-5 in their last 19 games overall and 12-6-2 ATS in their last 20. At home, the Sixers are 10-3 with the three losses coming by a total of five points.
And watch as the Sixers play some defense tonight against the Nuggets. They've held seven of their last nine foes to 94 points or less.
The Nuggets beat Philly 105-101 back on Dec. 26 but they failed to cover as a 6 1/2-point home favorite. The home team has won the last three meetings in this rivalry.
The Sixers are on ATS runs of 4-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Wednesdays. We like the fact they've already played a game to shake the rust after the break. Play Philadelphia at home in this one.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
N.C. State +21 at N. CAROLINA
No, we're not claiming the Wolf Pack is going to walk into North Carolina and pull off the outright upset, but we think this is just way too many points to pass up in this matchup.
N.C. State has won four of its last six games (4-1 ATS) and they've cashed in three of their last four road games, including at Georgia Tech on Saturday when they scored an 86-65 road win as four-point road 'dogs.
The Wolf Pack's offense has seemed to step it up lately, scoring 82 points or more in each of their last four games and five of their last six.
North Carolina has won nine straight but it sure didn't look right at Miami on Sunday, winning 69-65 and coming nowhere near covering as eight-point favorites. The Tar Heels are just 1-3 ATS in their last four and the only team they seemed inspired to play was at Duke a week ago.
The 'Heels went to N.C. State on Jan. 31 and left with a 93-76 win and cashed as 15-point favorites and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS in the last five series matchups.
North Carolina is on ATS slides of 2-5 at home, 4-11 after a straight-up win and 4-10 in their last 14 conference matchups. N.C. State is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven roadies, 4-1 ATS as an underdog and 5-2-1 after a spread-cover.
2♦ N.C. STATE
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Auburn at Georgia
Prediction: Auburn
The Tigers have won three straight and are finally back at .500 in conference action (16-9 overall). There will be no taking the Bulldogs lightly tonight. After all, UGA just knocked off Florida over the weekend. The win was Georgia's first this season in conference play and first overall in 2009! The Bulldogs had lost 11 straight since a New Year's Eve win over Kennesaw State. It's hard to imagine the Bulldogs will have even close to the same intensity level that they had in the win over the Gators. Meanwhile, Auburn feels they're playing for a Big Dance berth and can't afford a slip-up. The Bulldogs have dropped four of their last five as a home underdog and they're just looking to play out the season. With emotions having peaked over the weekend, UGA will be hard-pressed to hang in this one. I'm laying the points with Auburn on Wednesday.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers
At 10:35 pm, our member selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers plus the points over Phoenix. Last night, the Alvin Gentry Era began with a bang in Phoenix, as the Suns burst out with a 140-point effort, and wiped out Los Angeles 140-100. Clearly, it was a statement game by Phoenix, and magnified just how big a mistake Steve Kerr made when he handed the coaching reins to his ex-teammate (with San Antonio), Terry Porter. Porter had wanted re-make Phoenix into somewhat of a half-court team, but its personnel is better suited to a running game, and Gentry went back to a wide-open offense which Phoenix utilized during the Mike D'Antoni-coached seasons. However, it would be folly to get carried away by just one game, and I think there's a lot of value on the side of the Clippers tonight. Indeed, teams off losses of 40+ points typically rebound with big efforts in their next game, and especially when matched up against opponents which are NOT off back-to-back wins (48-26 ATS). Look for Eric Gordon & Co. to get the money at Staples Center tonight. Take the points with Los Angeles.
Jimmy The Moose
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Prediction: Over
The over is 4-0-1 in Montreal's last 5 games. In their last 10 road games the over is a profitable 7-1-2. The over is 9-3-2 in their last 14 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The over is 6-1-1 in Washington's last 8 games overall. The Capitals have played over the total in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games vs. an Eastern Conference opponent. Play the over.
Nick Parsons
New York Islanders at New York Rangers
Prediction: Under
Despite the Rangers often being the superior club, at least in recent seasons, this is still quite a big rivalry match-up. That means a tight, lower-scoring game should come as no surprise. That's absolutely what we're expecting here because it's enhanced by the fact that each of these teams has been struggling to score goals. The Rangers power play has been atrocious too. In the Rangers last nine games they had one game where they scored five goals. In the other eight games they never scored more than two goals! In fact, they only tallied a total of nine goals in those eight games! This struggling offense is synonymous with how the Islanders have been playing recently too. The Isles are coming off of a 3-2 win in the shootout versus the Penguins. However, they previously had been held to two goals or less in 11 of their last 15 games. Take a look at the UNDER in New York on Wednesday night!
Dwayne Bryant
Play: Detroit +5
This is a revenge game for Detroit after losing by 6 at home to Loyola-Chicago last month as 1-point chalk. If Loyola-Chicago can win by 6 at Detroit, surely they can win by 6 at home. Right? It's usually not that easy.
This is a major letdown spot for Loyola-Chicago after pulling a huge 4-point upset win at nationally-ranked Butler as 18-point dogs. And a letdown spot is always worse when a revenge-minded opponent is coming to town.
Loyola-Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. Loyola-Chicago is also 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win. Lastly, Loyola-Chicago is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.
I'll take the points with revenge-minded Detroit tonight.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota T'Wolves at Miami Heat
This is alot of points for a desperate and revenge-minded Minnesota team to be getting, particularly because Miami has been so bad over the last year and a half when laying points. Sure some of that was without Dwyane Wade, but the fact remains that the Heat are just 9-22 ATS as home favorites and 12-29 ATS off a SU win. The Timberwolves play with revenge for a three-point home loss and are 8-1 ATS this season on the road revenging a home loss. Take the points.
Play on: Minnesota
Cajun Sports
Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -8.5
WVU Coliseum will be the site of tonight’s Big East battle between the host West Virginia Mountaineers and the visiting Fighting Irish from Notre Dame. Both teams enter tonight’s contest off of home wins in their last game with Notre Dame defeating South Florida 67 to 57 but failing to cover the 13 point chalk while West Virginia handled Villanova rather easily winning 93 to 72 as 4.5 point home chalk.
The Irish have posted a record of 14-10 straight up this season but have really struggled against the number with a 6-13 ATS mark on the year. The Irish have had problems when leaving South Bend as their record indicates with a 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS road resume this season. They are averaging 76.1 points per game on the road and allowing 80.1 points per game. Over their last five contests they are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS and in conference play they are 5-7 SU and only 3-9 versus the number.
Notre Dame averages more than twenty-one three-pointers per game and against WVU this is a losing proposition as the Mountaineers are 15-6 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots per game on the season the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots per game on the season after 15+ games the last 3 seasons.
West Virginia has a record of 17-8 straight up and 10-12 against the number overall this season. When playing on their home floor they are a solid 10-2 SU and 5-4 ATS averaging 76.3 points per game on 44.2 percent from the field and allowing 55.7 points per game on 38.7 percent shooting. In conference play they are 6-6 both SU and ATS averaging 70.1 points per game and allowing 66.2.
With the Mountaineers coming off a high scoring affair versus Villanova in their most recent game we look for that momentum to carryover here as West Virginia is 22-7 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997 and 11-3 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more the last 3 seasons. When West Virginia is coming off a win and now play at home they are 41-24 ATS, if they won both SU and ATS and are now installed as a home favorite their record is 21-9 ATS. If the Mountaineers are at home and won both SU and ATS at home in their last game they are 36-16-4 ATS and if they are a home favorite that record is 16-4 ATS.
All systems go on a West Virginia win and cover in Morgantown on Wednesday night versus the boys from South Bend.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) West Virginia 83 Notre Dame 67
Bob Harvey
Dallas Mavericks -7.0
The Mavericks play their first game since the All-Star break against a Nets team that has lost eight straight in the Big D.
Dallas would like to get the second half of their season jump started in a big way and it appears they’ve got just the right opponent to make it happen. The Mavs are 12-1 SU against the Nets in their last 13 meetings and have been numbers at home against Jersey. Dallas has won eight straight against New Jersey by an average of 15 ppg Those numbers are part of a solid homecourt advantage for Dirk Nowitzki and company. The Mavericks have won 10 of their last 12 games at home to improve to 17-8 on the year.
Dallas is just 8-17 ATS at home this season but a meeting with New Jersey should improve both their record against the number and straight up.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Indiana State @ Southern Illinois
PICK: Indiana State
Southern Illinois continues to live off their past exploits. The fact is, they simply aren’t very good this year. Their record stands at just 11-15 overall and only 6-9 in the Missouri Valley Conference. Their points per possession differential (offensive points per possession minus defensive points per possession) bears out the fact that they are just not very good. For the season overall that number stands at -0.045 and in conference play it drops to -0.051. This team used to be unbeatable at home but that is not the case this season. They are just 7-5 SU at home this year. They have been known as a great shutdown defensive team, however this year they are just 6th in the league in defensive field goal % allowed and 8th in defensive points per possession. The Salukis aren’t playing well enough to lay this number against a resurgent Indiana State squad.
If you simply look at ISU’s overall record, you are not getting the entire story. The Sycamores are just 7-19 overall and 5-10 in the MVC, but a shorter window suggests this team is under valued and really playing well. This team is on a three game winning streak beating third place Illinois State on the road as a 15.5 point dog, then whipping Drake at home as a 3.5 point dog before tripping up Missouri State on the road last Saturday at a 7.5 point puppy. During that 3-game run the Sycamores have shot 48% and allowed just 39%.
SIU is coming off two huge games vs. first place Northern Iowa and second place Creighton. The Salukis had high hopes of turning around their season during that two game stretch, however they were blasted in both games losing by 26 to UNI and by 22 to Creighton. Southern Illinois already beat Indiana State this year on the road so we highly doubt after those two huge games that ISU will get their full attention. Don’t read too much into that 9-point road win for SIU earlier this year as the Sycamores were playing very bad basketball at the time and shot just 28% in that game. The Salukis also have a big game on deck on “Bracket Buster Saturday” as they play in-state Illinois-Chicago.
The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in this series and that continues tonight. We expect Indiana State to continue playing well and get the out right win here. Take the generous points.