Stephen Nover
Boston Celtics @ New Jersey Nets
PICK: Boston Celtics
Energy is a key word when handicapping the NBA. Figure out which team will have it and the other won't, and your chances of cashing are good.
Look for Boston to have it in today's road matchup against the Nets, a team they've beaten seven straight times. This includes two mid-January victories by a combined 52 points.
Boston is just 3-2 since losing Kevin Garnett. The Celtics also are without injured big man Brian Scalabine and Tony Allen. Boston was embarrassed in its last game, losing at home on Sunday to Detroit, 105-95.
The Celtics are one of three elite teams in the East. The other two are Cleveland and Orlando. The Celitcs host the Cavaliers on Friday followed by a home game versus the Magic.
The defending world champs are vulnerable right now without Garnett. They realize that. But they still have Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo and an underrated bench. Stephon Marbury, like him or not, was a big addition. He's had time to practice with his new team and will do well.
The Celtics will be motivated and focused for this matchup. They have covered 10 of their past 13 road games. They will be energized. They have to be with the Cavaliers and Magic looming and Garnett still not ready for action.
New Jersey is playing well. The Nets would be riding a four-game winning streak if they didn't blow a late lead to New Orleans.
But the Nets won't have the necessary energy following their huge 99-95 road win Tuesday night at Milwaukee. Despite a terrible shooting night from their two main offensive weapons, Devin Harris and Vince Carter, the Nets came from an 84-76 deficit with less than five minutes to play to knock off the Bucks in a matchup with playoff ramifications as both teams are battling for the final playoff position in the East.
This is the Nets' third game in four days. They are off a huge victory. They got into town this morning. The rested and focused Celtics have been pointing to this matchup since Sunday.
Look for Boston to get the win and cover. This is a one-unit play for me.
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take NC State at home.
The Wolfpack are certainly far from being anything more than a decent team and looked pretty poor in that last game loss on Sunday at home against Maryland but this price is a little too cheap to not play.
Boston College has had a successful season as they really were not predicted to do much of anything. The Eagles somehow beat both North Carolina and Duke and are on the cusp of possibly even making the NCAA Tournament. Tyrese Rice is no doubt very good and Al Skinner's group can win this game with all that's on the line but NC State at home should win this game more times than not and that sets up a quality enough spot for me.
Fells, Costner, Degand and the Pack are more of an underdog type team to back as they seem to play better in that mode covering numbers as the hunters but in Raleigh I'll take my chances as the home near pick-em play here. Sidney Lowe's squad has improved since the beginning of the season and even with that poor performance against the Terps have covered five of seven.
The Eagles will lay it on the line as their tournament hopes are up for grabs but I do not see them able to win this game and sweep the season series, I just don't!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks
Good value play here. Hawks have cashed four straight, Knicks are 0-3 ATS L3. Since this line is roughly a Pick, it's certainly worth noting that Atlanta has lost 19 of its last 24 in Madison Square Garden. This is their 3rd game in four nights. They have lost their last four road games against teams with winning records and while New York is not a winning team they have covered 11 of 16 here at the World's Most Famous Arena.
Play on: New York
John Ryan
Boston College vs. NC State
Play: Boston College +2
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston College over NC State slated to start at 7:00 EST. NC State has not been an aggressive type of team as reflected by the fact that they get fewer foul calls than their opponents. They tend to be a perimeter team and play a pain area zone defense. Note that BC is a solid 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games since 1997. BC is a solid foul shooting team and NC State is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games versus good free throw shooting teams making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. NC State is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. Take BC.
LT Profits
Vanderbilt +9.5
The LSU Tigers have been the biggest surprise in the SEC and on of the biggest surprises in the entire country this year, but this seems like a perfect time for these upstarts to have a letdown and open the door for the Vanderbilt Commodores to cover this big number.
Not much was expected of the Tigers this season, but they have proceeded to go 25-4 overall and are currently on a 10-game winning streak. The key here however is that LSU clinched the regular season SEC title at 13-1 with a big road win at Kentucky on Saturday, meaning that they really do not have much to play for until the SEC Tournament begins.
Meanwhile, at 6-8 in the conference, Vanderbilt is in a logjam with Mississippi State, Mississippi and Alabama where any of those teams can end up seeded between seventh and tenth, and Vandy is capable of making a nice run if they are seeded favorably.
Thus, the Commodores have all the motivation in this game, and their defense can always keep them in any game, as they are allowing just 65.2 points per game on 40.2 percent shooting overall, numbers which are actually identical to LSU.
Granted, Vanderbilt is just 2-7 straight up in true road games this season, but they are only losing those games by an average of -4.4 points and we look for them to play a potentially disinterested LSU team tough here also.
Pick: Vanderbilt +9.5
Dwayne Bryant
Bet: Pittsburgh -10
This is more of a "gut feeling" than anything else. I think this is the game where losing star guard Dominic James finally catches up with Marquette.
The Golden Eagles lost James two games ago. They were at home against UConn and James went down just four minutes into the game. Marquette hung tough until the closing minutes of that game. They then traveled to Louisville, where they again gave a game effort. In the end, the Cardinals won the game by 4, but Marquette got the cover.
Now the Golden Eagles visit Pittsburgh to face a Panthers team that is a perfect 17-0 at home this season. When we look at the home/road stats for each team, we see Pittsburgh with edges (mostly HUGE) in points per game, FG%, points allowed, FG% allowed, 3-point shooting %, and rebound margin.
It just looks like too much for Marquette to overcome, which is why the line opened at Pitt -11.5. The public has come in on Marquette based on how they've played so far without James. But I can't see Pitt laying an egg here, especially on national TV (ESPN2).
Also, keep in mind that all of Pitt's Big East home games have been wins by at least 11 points. And Marquette already owns an 18-point road loss in Big East play (at Villanova) and that was WITH James in the lineup.
My gut says Pittsburgh rolls tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Iowa State vs. Nebraska
Play:Nebraska -9
Nebraska has lost 3 in a row and that puts the Huskers in a big bounce back spot at home, where they are 13-4 this season. They will also be out to avenge a 12-point loss at Iowa State earlier this season. Iowa State has been awful on the road this season. They are 0-7 SU on the Big 12 road and have lost their last 4 Big 12 road contests by 15 or more points. ISU is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season, losing by an average score of 60.7 to 74.1 in these spots. The Cyclones are also 0-11 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 55.3 to 71.3. Lastly, Nebraska is 22-10 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997. Take the Huskers.
Tony George
Iowa State vs. Nebraska
Play: Iowa State +9
Nebraska takes on Iowa State in Lincoln tonight, trying to recover from a 3 game slide and get a decent seed in the upcoming Big 12 tourney. NO DOUBT Nebraska is a different animal at home, beating Texas in there, Mizzou, as well as taking Kansas to the wire as well. That being said, starting no one, or having no one over 6’-5” on their roster hurts them in the paint, and NU has no go to scorer, and as a matter of fact, Nebraska has averaged just 54 ppg on offense their last 5 games. Iowa State is no juggernaut on offense either nor a good road team, but have a serious frontcourt advanatge and a 12 point home win over NU back on Jan. 14th. All in all, pretty evenly matched game and the points are too many for the Huskers who cannot score points right now and are laying a number close to 15% of their total scoring capacity the past 5 games.
Free Play on Iowa State. Nebraska 58 Iowa State 55
Tom Stryker
Georgia vs. Kentucky
Play:Kentucky -17
With a 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS record in its last nine games including back-to-back straight up losses to South Carolina and LSU, Kentucky needs this victory like blood. The Wildcats are staring at a road game against Florida up next and the last thing the Cats need is to head to Gainesville trying to break a three-game losing streak.
Georgia is suffering through one of its toughest seasons and the Bulldogs are struggling something fierce right now with a 2-14 SU and 6-9-1 ATS record in their last 16 games. Success on this floor hasn't happened for the Dawgs either. In fact, in their last 57 trips to Kentucky, UGA is a miserable 4-53 SU. Overall, the Bulldogs are just 5-30 SU and 13-20-2 ATS in their last 35 on foreign courts.
One thing Kentucky has done is taken care of business on Senior Night. The Wildcats are a sizzling 83-5 SU in their last 88 last home game sets. There is a strong last home game system that favors UK tonight too. Since the 1992-93 season, college basketball last home game favorites priced at -15 or more are a marvelous 22-6-1 ATS provided they enter off back-to-back straight up losses. If our host played in its own backyard last, this situation tightens up to a nearly perfect 10-1 ATS. Kentucky fits this system and the tightener perfectly.
The Wildcats aren't a lock to make the NCAA Tournament yet. Head coach Billy Gillispie's troops need a few more wins to ensure a ticket. Lay the lumber here men. Take Kentucky.
Ted Sevransky
Brigham Young @ Wyoming
PICK: Wyoming
It’s not going to be easy for BYU up in Laramie tonight, but the betting marketplace seems to think that the Cougars are going to be able to roll over the Cowboys without too much trouble. The Cougars certainly haven’t had an easy time at Wyoming in recent years, earning only one victory in the last four years at this venue by any sort of a margin. BYU won by 10, 6, 4 and lost by 12 on their last four trips to Laramie; nary a blowout result in the bunch.
BYU is in the mother-of-all flat spots here. In their last three games, the Cougars played a trio of the best that the Mountain West has to offer. They squared off in a huge revenge game against UNLV, covering the spread but losing by a single point. Then they went to San Diego and used a ‘miracle’ 15-0 late game run to sneak past the poorly coached Aztecs. BYU concluded the trio with a home win against their arch-rivals, Utah, this past weekend, another huge revenge matchup for an overtime loss earlier in the season. Next up? Senior day at home this weekend. In between? This little game against Wyoming.
Wyoming has an enormous home court edge: 14-1 SU in Laramie this year, including outright upsets against Mountain West heavyweights UNLV and San Diego State. They have a senior superstar in the backcourt, with Brandon Ewing poised to become the first player in the ten year history of the conference to lead the league in both scoring and assists. They rank in the top five nationwide in free throws made; consistently able to force contact and score points at the charity stripe. The Cowboys have a boatload of momentum, winners of four straight games. And, after six straight years of missing out on the postseason entirely, at 18-10, Wyoming has a realistic shot of a 20 win season and an NIT bid, a huge additional supporting factor for this under-the-radar ballclub. 2* Take Wyoming.
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ezwinners.com- free pick
(563) Alabama-Birmingham Blazers Pick 'em
The Blazers are fighting for a spot in the NCAA tournament and
simply cannot afford to lose this game if they are to keep their
slim hopes for an NCAA birth alive. UTEP's explosive Stefon
Jackson will be playing his last home game in this one and will
look to go out with a bang, but UAB has matched up well with
UTEP as the Blazers have won the last four meetings between
these two teams. UAB should pick up the win here.
2009 Free Selections Record 34-28 (54.8%)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Wednesday's free selection: Grizzlies/Clippers over 191
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8)
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Marquette +10
The Eagles are minus a star player, but this team has lots of depth and that was apparent when it took Louisville down to the wire on the road 3 days ago. Pitt has a big game with UConn to close out the season and we will catch the Panthers looking ahead here. Marquette is 18-7 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1997 and 23-9 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997. The Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this matchup and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Both Blair and Fields are banged up and we will likely see their minutes decrease because of it. Marquette keeps this one within the number.
Greg Shaker
LA Monroe / Denver Under 122
Playing the Pioneers UNDER the mark this year here in the mountains has been Winning Bonanza and I have participated in that often. They are 8-4 UNDER at this court and they do have a way of controlling the tempo here. That tempo is is not IHop, it is ICrawl. Delivery of Pancakes are very slow and often enjoyed with thick, slow pouring, maple syrup. If you are attending the game tonight, feel free to go to the concession stand as often as you like, because you probably will not miss any scoring. Denver has especially enjoyed their style recently with a perfect 5-0 UNDER mark right here and I have been on all of them. That does include teams such as North Texas, South Alabama, and Mid Tenn State coming here and all having to wait to pour the syrup. Those facts along with the fact that Monroe has one of the worst offensive efficiences in the country, currently ranked at #294, gives us a great combination for this one. Monroe averages just 63 per contest away from home, and they have done that while playing much faster paced squads. Their connectivity on the road is a meager 38.8%. The Pioneers are the #344th slowest paced team in the country. That puts them DEAD LAST. Their offensive efficiency is in the bottom 50% as well. The first meeting saw 123 points but that was at another venue. This one is in the mountains and the pancakes are taking a long time. The last two times these two met here, we saw 106 and 116. This one could be lower than both of those. I would play this down to 118. PLAY UNDER.
Jeff Benton
Scored a 5♦ winner with New Mexico over Utah with Tuesday’s freebie. We’ll stay in the Mountain West Conference on Wednesday and back UNLV minus the big points against Air Force.
I’ll be honest: This is a play against the Falcons more than anything else. Air Force is winless through its first 14 conference games, going 2-12 ATS. That includes a 59-38 home loss to UNLV as a 10½-point home underdog back on Jan. 31, In fact, 11 of the Falcons’ first 12 conference losses were all by double digits. Despite that, they actually took the court as a home favorite in their last two games against Colorado State and Wyoming … and they lost both outright.
UNLV comes into tonight in squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble thanks to a 3-4 SU and ATS slump. But the Rebels have won six of their seven conference home games (the only loss came in overtime), including blowout victories over Wyoming (83-66), Colorado State (89-70) and TCU (71-57), who along with Air Force are the four worst teams in the Mountain West.
Air Force has failed to cover in 10 of its last 12 as an underdog, including four of five when catching 13 points or more, and the Falcons are 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 conference games and 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 against teams with a winning record. Throw in the fact that the Rebels have had a full week off to prep for this contest and they need a blowout win to boost their confidence heading into next week’s conference tournament, and I’ll lay this big number with confidence. After all, Air Force hasn’t scored more than 59 points in any conference road game all season!
3♦ UNLV
Jake Timlin
Never missing an opportunity to back Wyoming I like the Cowboys plus the home points big time tonight. Sure Wyoming lost by 25 point in Provo earlier this year, but given that the Cowboys have won their last 4 games overall and are at home tonight I see a much closer game tonight. After all for Wyoming given their 15-1 recorded in Laramie they are a beast at home this year and having covered 7 of their past 8 home games they are also money at the window. Meanwhile, for BYU they have been great all season long, but if you are going to be the Cougars it is going to be when they hit the road as 4 of the Cougars 6 defeats this year have come away from Provo. So with that I am not sure Wyoming is going to win outright at home against a better team, but I thanks to the Cowboys being at home I do see a closer than expected game tonight in Laramie. So in what will surely be an entertaining game take the points as this match up will be a battle all the way to the end.
PICK: Wyoming Cowboys