Craig Davis
Well, I guess all good things must come to an end and that’s exactly what happened to my free play run when Montana State failed to show up for senior night. No harm done as I’ve still nailed 9 of my last 13 free plays and I plan to bang home another one tonight with the Cleveland Cavaliers to complete a perfect 4-0 night.
The Cavs are the best team in the NBA at home, winning 26 out of 27 home games and covering 33 of 50 games as a favorite and 20 of their 27 home games. The Bucks, on the other hand, are in disarray right now, and not only have they had to try and make due without Michael Redd, they’ve had to deal with injuries to Joe Alexander and Andrew Bogut. Cleveland may impress you with their dazzling offense and the King James show, but it’s their defense that really puts this team over the edge, especially at home. The Cavs allow just 88 PPG at home while the Bucks are fairly horrid on the road, allowing over 100 PPG. Cleveland just seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now and welcome the opportunity to come back home after a grueling road trip. Will easily lay the big number with the Cavs tonight as we grab free play win #10 of 14.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Karl Garrett
Boston -6 at NEW JERSEY
G-Man is going to lay the road wood with the Celtics at the Nets.
New Jersey sure has been on an uptick since Devin Harris hit that half-courter last week, as the Nets are 3-1 straight up, and 4-0 against the spread their last 4 games. Included is an outright win last night at Milwaukee.
I expect the Nets to be a little fatigued come the end of this home date, and I surely expect the Celtics to get out of the neutral gear they have been in since returning from the west coast with a solid showing tonight.
Boston has split their last pair of games, and are off that Sunday home loss to the Pistons. The good news is the C's have handled the Nets the last 7 times these teams have played, both straight up, and against the spread.
The Celtics are also 10-3 against the spread their last 13 on the road, while the Nets are just 14-17 against the spread at home this year.
Boston gets up for this one, and walks all over New Jersey.
1♦ BOSTON
Drew Gordon
San Antonio at DALLAS PK
Here's another example of overreaction to a loss. In other words, the Mavs lose badly at Oklahoma City, and in the process lose versatile F Josh Howard to an ankle injury, and now all of a sudden they can't compete with the Spurs?! C'mon guys, you know better than that, as this Dallas team is deep enough to absorb the loss of one player, and you best believe they'll be highly motivated after getting embarassed by the doormat Thunder just 2 days ago!
Wondering how the Mavs manage to make up for Howard? His name is Jason Terry, who besides Nowitzki, was the only Mavericks player who came to play against the Thunder, dropping in 20 points, 4 asissts, & 3 steals off the bench (in only his second game back from injury)! Look for Terry, and such role players as Singleton and Bass to step up in the absence of Howard tonight.
Also, let's not get too crazy with the Spurs, as we all know they're damn good, but recent road losses have got to have their backers worried. In their last 10 games, they've lost at Toronto, at the Knicks, almost lost in Detroit, and at Portland... Not exactly the most convincing stretch of road play if you ask me! You're telling me the Mavericks can't win a pick'em on the home floor against this Spurs team?!
Finally, while revenge isn't as strong in the pro game, there's no question the Mavs remember well the 93-76 shellacking the Spurs put on them at the AT&T Center February 24th. Look for Dirk (who played terrible in that contest) and company to not only get their revenge tonight, but also a little redemption after getting hammered in their local media after the loss to the Thunder. Mavs take care of business tonight at home!
Take Dallas over San Antonio in this NBA match up.
2♦ DALLAS
North Carolina at VIRGINIA TECH +9'
Hokies have been up-and-down this season, but they've proven they have more than enough talent to stick with these Tarheels, especially in Blacksburg. True, they've lost 4 of their last 5 SUATS (just 1-6 L7 ATS), but thanks to that, they come into this contest undervalued, and I'm happy to jump aboard what will be a highly motivated Hokies bunch plus the points tonight.
No question Virginia Tech is sitting on the outside looking in, a bubble-team that absolutely NEEDS another signature win to get invited to the Madness. In comes the Tarheels, who while still vying for a share of the regular season title, aren't exactly scrambling like the Hokies are.
From a match up standpoint, we saw a similar contest last season, and the results tell a lot. The Hokies lost 68-66 in the ACC tourney Semis, but proved they could match up nicely with North Carolina, easily covering the double-digit spread. One year removed from that contest, and Delaney and Vassallo are both playing great, while Allen continues his consistent play. Hanborough lit them up for 26 points in their last meeting, but after Pyscho-T, the match ups even out nicely.
Bottom line, while we expect the Tarheels to win this contest SU, covering the number against a desperate Hokies team is a completely different story. Not only are the Hokies in "must-win mode," but this happens to be the biggest game of the season (and Senior Night) for this Virginia Tech team... Look for them to respond accordingly, as they scratch and claw in an effort to get off the bubble.
Take Virginia Tech plus the points over North Carolina in this college hoops match up.
2♦ VIRGINIA TECH
Sports Gambling Hotline
George Washington +7 at MASSACHUSETTS
Another comp play winner last night on Oklahoma State eeking-out the cover. That is now a 20-7-2 free play run the last 29 days!
Underdog play in the college ranks tonight on George Washington plus the points at Massachusetts.
Both teams sport just 10 straight up wins on the season, but we like the way the Colonials are playing right now, recording back-to-back underdog wins over Richmond, and Charlotte. In fact, George Washington is on a 3-0-1 spread run their last 4 games, and an 8-3-2 overall spread run their last 13 games!
UMass is on a disappointing 1-4 run both straight up, and against the spread their last 5 games, and they are no better than 3-3 both straight up, and against the spread the last 6 series meetings.
Hard to imagine the Minutemen covering what we feel is a rather pricy impost.
George Washington is closing strong, and building for next season, while it appears Massachusetts has thrown in the towel.
Take the points.
Play on G-Dub.
4♦ GEORGE WASHINGTON
Rocketman
Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas
Play: Florida Atlantic +13
The start of the Sun Belt Conference tournament begins tonight. These two teams met back in January right here in North Texas and North Texas won the game 69-60 where the line was 9 points. Florida Atlantic has covered 5 of the past 7 games as an underdog of 13 points or more and all of those games were on the road. North Texas is 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. North Texas is 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. North Texas 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. North Texas is only beating opponents by an average of 5 points per game at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on Florida Atlantic tonight!
DAVE MALINSKY
Colorado State @ San Diego State
PICK: Colorado State
Late in any college regular season we are looking for underdogs that are still trying hard against favorites that want to win the game, but do not bring the focus to be going for a margin. This is a classic example.
Bad teams like Colorado State can play well down the stretch without anyone paying attention, as long as they are not getting the kind of wins that can put them on the radar screens. That has been the case with the Rams – in going 1-3 over their last four games there was little reason for the marketplace to take notice, but take a look at the losses. They fell in overtime to Mountain West upper echelon Utah and New Mexico, and the other loss came by just three points vs. Wyoming. Now they have a most unique setting here, as they play their final game before next week’s Mountain West tourney at Las Vegas, which means no holding back at all because of the layoff ahead.
Contrast that with San Diego State. The Aztecs have stumbled badly since cog Billy White suffered a knee injury, getting drubbed by 26 at New Mexico after he left one minute into the game; losing by 10 at home to Brigham Young; and having to go to overtime to escape past slumping T.C.U. on Saturday (White tried to play, but could only go a minute before sitting down again). He has been downgraded to doubtful for this one, and part of Steve Fisher’s logic for that is what makes this setting work so well – with a home showdown vs. U.N.L.V. up on Saturday, and then the conference tourney, they need to get him back to full health.
That leaves the Aztecs short-handed physically, lacking confidence, and with a major look-ahead to a bigger game on deck (with four senior starters, the Last Home Game element vs. U.N.L.V. is particularly significant). They would be thrilled to get a win here by far less than what the pointspread is calling for, and that is what we project, as the Rams play loosely and with abandon and hang around throughout.
Dennis Macklin
BYU at Wyoming
Play: Wyoming
BYU is looking to avoid a MWC 4-5 game with eith either UNLV or San Diego State. The problem here is that they are laying 8.5 to a Wyoming Cowboy outfit that's 18-10 overall and 16-1 on their homecourt in Laramie, the lone loss coming to Utah in a game where they were unable to handle 7-footer Luke Neville. The Cowboys have three legit scorers avgg 15 ppg including Ewing who is MWC 2nd All-Time leading scorer. MWC figures to get three teams in the dance and loss here would SEVERLY damage BYU's at large argument. Coogs have senior night versus Air Force on deck so all they need to do is get outa Dodge with a win. Grab the points.
Rob Homyak
Kansas Jayhawks at. Texas Tech Red Raiders
5 units on Kansas Jayhawks
Play ON KANSAS against the spread in All games against conference opponents
Record: 12-1 this season (+10.90 units)
Kansas defeated Missouri 90-65 as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (150).
Sherron Collins scored 25 points for Kansas and Cole Aldrich chipped in with 19 points and 13 rebounds in the win.
John Roberson led Texas Tech with 17 points in a 78-63 loss to Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon.
The Red Raiders did not cover the 9-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the posted total of 158.5.
The Red Raiders have only two league wins against 12 losses. Red Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. The Jayhawks have won 17 of the 20 all-time meetings with the Red Raiders. Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Kansas Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Head to Head
Jayhawks are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
King Creole
Western Mich. -5 vs Ball St
Why fight it? There's an in-season SYSTEM which has gone 10-1-2 ATS so far in the 2008/09 season. It pertains to home teams playing with the ULTIMATE in motivation (REVNENGE) and we have TWO qualifiers going on Wednesday night:
10-1-2 ATS so far this season: All CONFENE home favorites of -4 > points.... playing with 'SSR1' (same-season SINGELE Revenge).... and also off BB SU and ATS losses in a row. Ironically, BOTH of tonight's teams that are active in this 91% ATS System come from the same Conference. And those two "Play ON" teams are:
WESTERN MICHIGAN -5 points vs Ball State and CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7 points vs Toledo
WUNDERDOG
Miami at Georgia Tech
Pick: Miami -2.5
Miami is in desperation mode right now. They sit firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. They have a very healthy RPI which will help them, but at 17-10, and just 6-8 in the ACC, there is much work to be done. A loss tonight and they might kiss their hopes good-bye. It has been a !BAD! year for Georgia Tech as they stand at just 1-13 in the ACC and their season is a bust regardless of what happens tonight. The Hurricanes have competed well, losing five of their eight losses in the ACC by five points or less - three of those five were OT losses. Tech has now dropped seven straight in the ACC. They have also lost four straight ATS and are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games, so they have been as bad as they look. I like Miami to win this one convincingly, and a win vs. North Carolina Sate in their ACC finale could see the ‘Canes climb to 19-10, and 8-8 in the conference, and be looking good for the tournament.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 192.5
The Clippers have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 and the Grizzlies have come in under the number in 4 straight. The Clippers and Grizzlies combined for 231 points back in February and yet we see a number well under 200? I smell a rat. Both teams have been struggling offensively and those struggles will continue tonight. The Under is 4-0 in the Grizzlies last 4 road games and 11-5 in the Clippers last 16 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Odds makers are tipping their hand here and we'll take advantage.
JACK JONES
Atlanta Hawks pk over New York Knicks
The Knicks have lost three straight games and are coming off a tough loss on Saturday in which they were outscored 37-17 in the 4th quarter by the Miami Heat. Atlanta is coming off a nice win in Washington Monday night for their fourth straight cover. It's tough taking a road team in the NBA when the Knicks have been a profitable 17-14 ATS at home and the Hawks are only 14-19 on the road, but the way New York has been playing lately I like Atlanta to win this one.
Houston Rockets +9
The Jazz have won eight straight games and are looking like a solid playoff contender, especially with Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer back in the lineup, but they are laying too many points to the Rockets tonight. Houston has won eight of the nine games they have played since Tracy McGrady went down to injury. The Rockets have shot over 50.6% in their last two games, and the Jazz just allowed the Warriors to shoot 51% in their win on Sunday so I'm taking the points.
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
4 UNIT PLAY (Conference USA GOY)
Memphis -7 over HOUSTON
The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, while the Cougars are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600, plus the Road team is 16-3 ATS in the last 19 meetings. The tigers continue to steamroll through Conference USA as they are 14-0 and have outscored their opponents by 17.8 ppg in league play this year. Memphis has also taken the last 8 in this series, with each win coming ny 7 or more points, while outscoring the Cougars by 11.5 ppg in the 8 games. Houston has had a nice year this year, but they are in over their heads in this one as Memphis is playing for a number one seed in the Big Dance and could use all the blowout wins they can get.
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis/ Duquesne Over 137.5
The Over is 4-1 in Billikens last 5 games following a S.U. loss, while the Over is 9-4 in Dukes last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Five times this year the Dukies have been involved in games with an OU line of 145 or less and 4 of those games went over the total. Those games have averaged 151.3 ppg. St Louis hasn't been involved in many high scoring games this year, but their last 4 away from home have averaged 141 ppg. The Dukes home games have scored 147.8 ppg, while their conference games have averaged 155.8 ppg. The Dukes defense has been soft this year as they have allowed 75.7 ppg in A-10 play and 73.8 ppg overall, whie the Billikens have allowed 71 ppg in their last 3 on the road. I know St Louis likes to play the slowdown game but this game is on the Dukes home floor and they will dictate pace, which means run, run, run, About 150 in this one.
(Power Angle Play)
Miami -3 over GEORGIA TECH
The Hurricanes are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, while the Yellow Jackets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. After losing 6 of their previous 7 games, the Canes are back on track with a mini 2 game win streak. The Yellow Jackets are struggling mightly right now as they have lost 7 in a row and they are just 1-6 at home in the ACC and have been outscored by 6.9 ppg in their ACC home games. Overall Tech has been outscored by 9.5 ppg in ACC play. Miami has just too much to play for right now to think that Tech can stay in this one. Miami by 8+ in this one.
POWER ANGLE For This Play--- MIAMI is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Marquette +10 over PITTSBURGH
I know that Marquette is missing their star, but this team still has enough to stay wthin the big number here. Pitt by no more than 7 in this one.
North Carolina -9.5 over VIRGINIA TECH
The Tar Heels are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5, while the Hokies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Carolina has outscored their ACC opponents by 11.4 ppg. Va Tech has struggled down the stretch as they have lost 3 of their last 4 games and have been outscored by double digits in 3 of the 4 losses. Carolina is gearing up for the ACC torney and the Big dance and will get another easy win here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
KENTUCKY -17.5 over Georgia:
The Bulldogs are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Southeastern, while the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. The Dawgs are a pathetic 2-12 in the SEC and have been outscored by 13.6=5 ppg in the process, while they are 0-7 in SEC and have been outscored by 17.5 ppg in those games. The Cats are pissed right now after blowing their last game vs LSU and they will take it out on Georgia tonight. Kentucky by 20+ in this one.