Dave Price
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5
It is going to be difficult for the Magic to bounce back from a highly emotionally and physically draining loss in Cleveland last night against a Bucks team playing at home on fresh legs. Milwaukee has had great success at home against the Magic going 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS since 1996. The Bucks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. the NBA Southeast. Orlando hasn't been so tough on the road without Jameer Nelson and we'll take the Bucks catching plenty tonight.
SPORTS ADVISORS
NIT
Duquesne (21-12, 15-12 ATS) at Virginia Tech (18-14, 12-15 ATS)
Virginia Tech makes it second consecutive NIT appearance after closing the season by losing nine of its final 13 games (5-8 ATS). In last week’s ACC tournament, the Hokies routed Miami, Fla., 65-47 as a three-point underdog in Thursday’s opening-round action before coming up just short against top-ranked North Carolina on Friday, falling 79-76 but easily cashing as an 11½-point underdog.
Duquesne just missed out on a stunning trip to the Big Dance, losing 69-64 to Temple in the finals of the Atlantic 10 tournament, falling just short as a 4½-point underdog. The Dukes, whose 28 wins are the most by the school in 28 years, advanced to the A-10 championship game after three straight wins in as many days over UMass (91-81), Rhode Island (78-74) and Dayton (77-66), cashing in all three contests. Prior to the tourney, Duquesne had been in a 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS funk.
These teams last met in 2000, when both were in the same conference. The Hokies won four of the final five meetings from 1998-2000, going 3-2 ATS.
Virginia Tech got as far as the NIT quarterfinals last season, while Duquesne is in this event for the first time in 15 years.
The Hokies have lost three straight home games (1-2 ATS), all to NCAA Tournament qualifiers North Carolina (86-78 as a 9½-point pup), Duke (72-65 as a 5½-point underdog) and Florida State (67-65 as a 2½-point ‘dog). Va.-Tech is 2-5 ATS in its last seven in Blacksburg, 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests and 3-10 ATS as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Duquesne is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog.
The over is on runs of 6-1 for Duquesne on Tuesday, 10-4 for the Hokies at home, 5-1 for the Hokies in non-conference play and 4-1 for the Hokies on Wednesday. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 4-1 for the Dukes in non-league action, 5-2 for the Dukes on the road and 7-0 for Virginia Tech against Atlantic 10 foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUQUESNE
Miami, Fla. (18-12, 12-12-1 ATS) at Providence (19-13, 11-17 ATS)
Miami stumbled to the finish line, losing nine of its final 14 games after starting the season 13-3. The Hurricanes also followed up a 5-1 ATS run that closed February by failing to cover in their final three games, including a 65-47 loss to Virginia Tech as a three-point favorite in the opening round of last week’s ACC tournament.
Providence ended the regular season on a 5-3 SU run, then went one-and-done in the Big East tournament, getting crushed by regular-season and conference tournament champ Louisville 73-53 as a 10½-point underdog. The Friars were a terrible bet down the stretch, going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 (all in Big East play), including 0-3 ATS in the last three.
Miami is making its fourth NIT appearance in five seasons under coach Frank Haith, while the Friars are back in the NIT for the first time since losing an opening-round game to Bradley in overtime in 2007.
These former Big East rivals last met in the Puerto Rico Invitational preseason tournament in November 2007, with the Hurricanes rolling to a 64-58 win in a pick-em contest. Miami has covered in the last two meetings after Providence went 4-1 ATS in five clashes from 2001-03. The visitor is 7-1 ATS in the last eight battles, and the underdog has cashed in five of the past seven.
Although Miami is 0-3 ATS in its last three overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven on the road, the Hurricanes are on positive ATS stretches of 15-3 in non-conference games, 15-5-2 after a non-cover, 6-2 as an underdog and 8-3-1 as a pup of less than seven points. Providence carries negative ATS trends that include 3-9 overall, 2-7 in non-Big East contests, 1-4 at home and 1-7 against winning teams, but the Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last six when laying less than seven points.
The over is 4-1 in Providence’s last five against ACC opponents and 19-7 in its last 26 on Wednesday, while the over is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI, FLA. and OVER
Northwestern (17-13, 13-12-1 ATS) at Tulsa (24-10, 14-14 ATS)
Northwestern’s hopes for a first-ever NCAA Tournament berth were dashed with consecutive losses to Ohio State (52-47) to end the regular season and Minnesota (66-53) in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. Prior to that, the Wildcats had won three in a row and four of five.
Tulsa took a seven-game winning streak (5-2 ATS) into Saturday’s Conference USA championship game, but the Golden Hurricane were no match for fourth-ranked Memphis, losing 64-39 as a 14½-point road underdog. Tulsa scored at least 70 points in 12 of its last 16 games, with two of the exceptions coming against Memphis, which held the Hurricane to just 37 and 39 points.
Northwestern is in the NIT for the first time since 1999. Meanwhile, the Golden Hurricane last year advanced to the postseason for the first since 2003 and it won the inaugural College Basketball Invitational, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.
Northwestern is on ATS runs of 6-2-1 in non-league games, 4-1 on Wednesday, 5-2 after a SU defeat and 4-0 after a non-cover, but the ‘Cats are 3-8-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season and 1-6 ATS in their last seven when catching less than seven points on the road.
Tulsa is on ATS tears of 17-8 ATS at home, 20-7 as a favorite (4-1 last five), 13-3 as a chalk of less than seven points and 9-4 in postseason tournament action going back to last March. However, the Golden Hurricane are also in pointspread dips of 3-7 on Wednesday, 2-5 in non-Conference USA games and 2-5 after a SU defeat.
The over is on runs of 12-5 for the Wildcats overall, 12-5 for the Wildcats in non-conference play, 6-0 for the Wildcats on Wednesday, 9-1 for the Wildcats after a SU defeat, 4-1-1 for Tulsa at home and 8-2 for Tulsa on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Miami (36-30, 30-34-2 ATS) at Boston (50-18, 34-34 ATS)
The slumping Celtics return to the friendly confines of TD BankNorth Garden in desperate need of some home cooking when they welcome the Heat.
Boston has dropped two straight and four of five overall (0-5 ATS) and it is on a 1-9 ATS slide after Tuesday’s 127-121 loss in Chicago as one-point road favorites. That setback came two days after an embarrassing 86-77 loss in Milwaukee as six-point favorites.
Miami comes into this one off of Sunday’s 85-77 loss in Philadelphia, coming up just short as a seven-point ‘dog. The Heat had won five of six (4-2 ATS) prior to going to Philly, and they have topped the 100-point mark in seven of their last nine overall.
The Heat ended a six-game Boston winning streak in this series a week ago, scoring a 107-99 win in South Beach as 3½-point favorites. The Celtics had gotten the cash in seven of the previous nine, including four straight before last Wednesday. The road team is 6-3 SU and ATS in the last nine in this rivalry, and the favorite has cashed in five straight.
Miami is on a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 1-4 on the road, 1-5 as an underdog, 8-21 against the Atlantic Division, 0-4 as a road ‘dog and 2-6 against Eastern Conference teams. Boston is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games played on the second night of a back-to-back, but otherwise it’s all been bad news at the betting window lately for the Celtics, including 0-5 ATS overall, 1-7 ATS at home and 1-7 ATS against Eastern Conference teams.
For the Heat, the under is on runs of 5-2 on the road, 10-3-1 against teams with a winning record, 7-2-1 when playing on two days of rest and 5-1 as a road ‘dog. Also, Boston has stayed under the total in 16 of its last 21 on the second night of a back-to-back. Lastly, in this series, the under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 matchups and 11-1-1 in the last 13 meetings in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (33-33, 28-38 ATS) at Houston (44-25, 33-35-1 ATS)
The Pistons continue their two-game, two-day Texas jaunt with a stop in the Toyota Center in Houston for a date with the Rockets.
Detroit lost a tough one Tuesday night in Dallas, falling 103-101 to the Mavericks but cashing as a 6½-point ‘dog. It was the Pistons second straight loss and the fourth in their last six games (3-3 ATS). Detroit has not fared well on the second night of back-to-backs, going 4-7 ATS in its 11 tries, including 1-6 ATS in the last seven.
Houston has alternated wins and losses in its last five (3-2 ATS), but the Rockets are 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) in their last 10 overall. On Monday, they went to New Orleans and got a 95-84 victory as six-point ‘dogs. Houston has been tough to beat at home this season, sporting a 27-8 SU mark, but it is a mediocre 15-19-1 ATS at the Toyota Center.
The host was riding a five-game SU (3-1-1 ATS) streak in this series until Jan. 26 when the Rockets went to Detroit and scored a 108-105 win as three-point pups. Despite that result, the Pistons are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 series clashes, with the favorite riding an 8-3-1 ATS run.
Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against Southwest Division teams, but otherwise it is on positive ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the road and 9-4 on Wednesdays. Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six against Eastern Conference teams but 0-4 ATS in its last four at home and 1-4 in its last five on Wednesdays.
For the Pistons, the under is on streaks of 17-9 on the road, 19-7-1 o the second night of a back-to-back, 20-8-1 against Southwest Division teams and 4-2 against the Western Conference. Houston is on “under” runs of 6-0 overall, 20-7 on Wednesdays and 4-0 when getting one day off. In this series, the under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, with the last six clashes in Houston staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Nick Parsons
Nashville Predators @ Anaheim Ducks
Pick: Anaheim Ducks -124
The Ducks lost 1-0 to the Sharks in front of the home town crowd their last time out and I look for them to erase that embarassing performance tonight. This play is offering us great value as I look for the Predators to have a letdown tonight. Nashville is in fact 8-9 after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest. Look for ANAHEIM to improve to 9-5 after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous game!
maddux sports FREE pick has a win
rate of 60% since 2003.
Today's Free Pick is Georgetown +4
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
225 - 152 run 60 %
Wednesday: Illinois State
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EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder
(614) Oklahoma City Thunder (-2)
The Bulls are in a nice letdown spot after knocking off the
World Champion Boston Celtics last night in Chicago and
now travel to take on the lowly Thunder. Oklahoma City has
been playing very well at home where they have won five
out of their last seven games including wins over San
Antonio and Dallas. Chicago is only 2-5 against the
spread in their last seven road games and Oklahoma City
is 13-3-1 against the spread in their last seventeen games
against Eastern Conference teams. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 43-33 (56.6%)
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Jeff Benton
Back-to-back freebie winners with the Blazers on Monday and Davidson outright on Tuesday. Let's make it three in a row Wednesday, as we’ll lay the points with Baylor at home against Georgetown.
You could easily dub this college basketball’s “Underachievers Championship Game,” as both of these squads failed to live up to preseason expectations in a big way. But you at least have to give Baylor credit for its performance in the Big 12 tournament last week. Four days after ending the regular season with a four-point home loss to Nebraska, the Bears immediately avenged that defeat with a 65-49 rout of the Huskers as a one-point underdog in the opening round of the conference tourney.
The next day, Baylor stunned top-seeded Kansas (71-64 as an eight-point pup), then 24 hours later took out Texas (76-70 as a 4½-point ‘dog) before its luck ran out in a 73-60 loss to Missouri in the championship game Saturday. I knew Baylor would be out of gas in that final contest, which is why I laid the six points with Missouri as my Best Bet on Saturday. Still, at least Baylor played with pride down the stretch. Can’t say that about Georgetown.
The Hoyas got knocked out of the Big East tournament in the first round, losing to lowly St. John's as a six-point favorite. It was a perfect ending for Georgetown, which started conference play with a stunning 13-point road win at UConn, then went on to lose 13 of its final 19 games! Not only that, but the Hoyas went 3-15-1 ATS during this season-ending stretch (2-7-1 ATS on the road)!
What’s more, check out the Hoyas’ offensive output in their last five contests going back to Feb. 23: 58 points (vs. Louisville at home), 56 points (at Villanova), 56 points (at St. John’s), 48 points (vs. DePaul) and 59 points (again, vs. DePaul). Talk about pathetic! Now the Hoyas, after an eight-day layoff, are going to suddenly find their offensive rhythm? Not buying it one bit! Back Baylor.
3♦ BAYLOR
Drew Gordon
Duquesne +8 at VIRGINIA TECH
This dog is barking loud and clear, as the Dukes travel to Blacksburg to face off with the Hokies. Sorry Va. Tech-backers, but your team has peaked and is clearly on the way down at this point. They had a nice run in January, but its hard to ignore losing 7 of your last 9 games (4-5 ATS over that span)! Hokies have no one to blame but themselves, as their inconsistent play and shallow bench doom them once again here.
There's no arguing that Duquense plays in the weaker conference, but rest-assured, this Dukes team can and will run up and down the floor with the Hokies. Dukes average 80 ppg on 48% shooting in hostile territory this year, and made a truly impressive run in A-10 tourney, losing in the Title Game to Temple. Unlike Virginia Tech, this Dukes team has played well down the strech, which is what you want come postseason time.
From a match up standpoint, we all know about the Hokies Big 3: Vassallo, Delaney, and Allen, but its the Dukes overall balance that will help them cover in this contest. You see, Duquesne has 7 players averaging 5 points or more, including stud G Aaron Jackson (18 ppg), as compared to just 4 players on the Virginia Tech side. Depth has been an issue all season for Va. Tech, and as the season has worn on, we've seen this Hokies team tire down the stretch... Look for this to be a problem once again, as the Dukes offense won't stop coming.
Bottom line, while Virginia Tech can ride their Big 3 to the SU win, covering the number is a completely different story. Duquesne is not only playing better ball at this point, but has better depth to take advantage of a shallow Hokies bench late in this contest. In the end, the Dukes are a dangerous team with all the firepower necessary to easily keep this game within the number.
Take Duquesne plus the points over Virginia Tech in this college hoops match up.
3♦ DUQUESNE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Georgetown at BAYLOR -3'
Tonight we are going to lay the small wood with the fired up Bears of Baylor.
Baylor made an improbable run to the Big 12 title game over the weekend, and this is a team that is very happy to still be playing basketball right now, and have been rewarded with this home game.
The same cannot be said for a Georgetown team that had loftier goals when the season started. The Hoyas sputtered all season long, and do enter this game having lost 4 of 6, and 6 of their last 9 overall.
Georgetown is just 2-7-1 against the spread their last 10 on the road, and a money-burning 3-15-1 against the spread their last 19 overall.
Baylor's numbers aren't much better, but as we said at the top, the fact the Bears knocked off Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas less than a week ago is going to translate into a win, and cover tonight at home against a Georgetown team that never figured they would be playing a weeknight game at the Ferrell Center in Waco tonight.
Play on the Bears.
5♦ BAYLOR
DUNKEL
Chicago at Columbus
The Blue Jackets look to bounce back from their 4-0 loss to Detroit and build on their 10-5 record after a division game. Columbus is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jackets favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-130).
Game 51-52: New Jersey at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.815; Carolina 12.364
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 53-54: Chicago at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.733; Columbus 12.204
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-130); Under
Game 55-56: Dallas at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.974; Calgary 10.815
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+165); Over
Game 57-58: Nashville at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.298; Anaheim 11.540
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-120); Under
Wunderdog
Northwestern at Tulsa
Pick: Tulsa -4.5
The Golden Hurricanes play in a conference with Memphis which certainly limits their chances. What they did manage to do is close the season at 12-1 when playing anyone but Memphis. This is a team that plays sticky defense and is a very tough out on their home court. The Wildcats had a decent year in the Big Ten, but not good enough, and they lacked consistency through the season. They had a couple big wins on the road, but for the most part couldn't get it done finishing 3-9 on the road in their last 12. Wildcats also sport a 1-6 ATS mark as a road dog of up to 5.5 in their last seven, while the Golden Hurricanes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a favorite and they get the call here, Tulsa with the win and cover.
John Ryan
Georgetown vs. Baylor
Play:Georgetown + 3.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Georgetown as they face Baylor in the NIT slated to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that GT will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 63-28 ATS for 69% winners since 1997. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a loss by 10 points or more facing an opponent after 4 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less. AiS also shows an 80% probability that GT will shoot 47 to 53% and Baylor will have between 14 and 18 shots from the charity stripe. Note that Baylor is just 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons. Baylor is also an imperfect 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games versus excellent teams shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.