Jack Jones
Charlotte Bobcats -6.5 over Washington Wizards
The list of Wizards injuries are starting to pile up as they are starting to look more like an NFL team than an NBA one with all of their stars sidelined. Caron Butler's hamstring, Juan Dixon's ankle, Gilbert Arena's knee, Etan Thomas's knee, and Brendan Haywood's wrist all have them questionable at best for tonight's game. That is a heavy burden fro Antawn Jamison to carry by himself and while he's doing a pretty good job he can't do it all on his own. Washington has lost five straight games and seven of eight. Charlotte lost pretty bad at home to Indiana the other night, but had rattled off three straight wins before that. The Wizards have packed it in so lay the points with the Bobcats tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Washington Wizards +6.5
The Wizards are showing too great of value to pass up Wednesday when hosting the Charlotte Bobcats. Yes, Charlotte is still in the playoff race but they have no business being this heavily favored on the road. After all, the Bobcats are a mere 11-22 on the road this year, winning only 33% of their games. These teams have already played 3 times this season, with Charlotte winning all 3 meetings. But the Bobcats won by only 3 at Washington last time, and it is very tough to beat the same team 4 times in one year. That’s the task Charlotte faces tonight and they won’t be able to pull it off. The Wizards will use this as a motivational factor which is crucial because it is hard for this team to be motivated right now. Washington is 49-21 ATS (+25.9 Units) after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Wizards are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. This line has clearly been inflated tonight. Take the Wizards and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -1
Indiana decisive win at Charlotte last game sets up a nice system we will play on tonight. Indiana is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more since 1996, winning in these spots by an average score of 99.7 to 91.4. Also, look for fatigue to catch up with Miami tonight as the Heat are only 4-12 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. Pound the Pacers.
Frank Jordan
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -9.5
Golden State had a shot to beat the Spurs last night, but San Antonio was just too good at home winning 107-106. Now the Warriors take on another Texas team in Dallas as they look to halt the mini two game slide. Dallas is currently in the 8th spot in the West and have won 6 of their last 10 games. In their previous two games against one another Dallas won at home by 24 and Golden State won at home by 9 in this one look for the home court to once again come up big as Dallas wins by at leas a dozen. Play Dallas
Tony Karpinski
Kentucky vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -3
People tend to forget this Notre Dame squad was playing some pretty good basketball coming down the stretch in the always tough Big East conference and this line is a little short in our estimation, especially with the Irish getting Kentucky in South Bend, where they shoot the ball extremely well.
Notre Dame edged New Mexico 70-68 on Thursday, but failed to cover as a five-point favorite. The Irish have won eight of their last 12 games and four of their last five. Remember this team went to UConn and played the Huskies right down to the wire fbefore losing in the final minute. Look for the Irish to control the pace and dominate this one with their good 3-pt shooting at home.
Dwayne Bryant
MIN +10 vs PHI
The Sixers are obviously the better team in this matchup, but the better team doesn't always win. And even when they do win, they don't always cover the spread.This is a tough spot for Philly. The Sixers are coming off an upset road win in OT at Portland on Monday night. That win capped a successful 3-2 West Coast road trip that also included a win over the Lakers. This is the 76ers' first home game in over a week, which is a tough spot for these NBA teams, especially off an upset road win.Minnesota is on a 5-game skid, but if you look past their most recent loss at Atlanta, the T'wolves played some pretty solid road games this month. Minny lost by just 2 at Portland (one of the best home teams in the NBA), by just 7 at San Antonio (one of the top teams in the NBA), and by just 1 at New Orleans (another tough Western Conference playoff team). From a series perspective, Minnesota is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Timberwolves are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.The 76ers are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. The 76ers are also just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Too many points for Philly to be laying in this spot. I'll grab the points with Minnesota tonight.
King Creole
MIN +10 vs PHI
Want a DOG-oriented series? You got it! The UNDERDOG in the Minnesota-Philadelphia series is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons. As bad as thing have been for the T'Wolves lately, they do play their BEST when they are getting sizable points, like tonight. Minnesota is 10-2-1 ATS since January 1st when installed as an underdog of 8 or more points. And in the 2008/09 season, when they are taking this many points on the ROAD, they have gone a VERY profitable 15-3-1 ATS. Meanwhile, when the Sixers are 'chopping BIG wood' (laying a lot of points), they have not done very well. How does 0-5 ATS since December sound as a favorite of -8 > points?
Tonight's game has a very RARE 'pointspread reversal' going for the host Sixers. They were a +8 underdog on the road vs Portland on Monday night. Now, after traveling across the country, they are laying -9.5 points at home. That's a pointspread reversal of a whopping 17.5 points (from a dog of +8 to a fav of -9.5).
0-3 ATS this season: NBA favorites of 7 > points off a SU win as an UNDERDOG of + 7 > points (Sixers).
You do NOT want to be betting on a NBA team playing at HOME off a long road trip (like the Sixers). That first game back has these teams feeling cloudy and confused.
0-5 ATS last 2 months: All NBA home favs of > 5 points playing off 5 or more rOAD games in a row (Sixers).
With a current 5-game losing streak, it's time to load up on the T'WOLVES.... according to the NBA database.
7-0 ATS last 2 months: All NBA non-conference road teams who have lost 5 or more games in a row (T'WOLVES).
Jrtips
LA CLIPPERS vs. NY KNICKS
The New York Knicks will try to avoid a sixth straight loss to the Los Angeles Clippers who they lost to last month. New York (28-42) is in danger of matching a season high for consecutive losses, and ending its chance to make the postseason.The Knicks lost against the Clippers who are (17-54), 128-124 in overtime on Feb. 11th. Los Angeles has won three straight and seven of eight against New York and the Clippers will try to make it five straight home losses for the knicks after losing 106-102 to Orlando on Monday night. The Knicks are playing hard and forward David Lee returned Monday Night, and had 14 points and 13 rebounds after missing a loss at Orlando on Saturday night due to tendinitis in his right knee. Lee is tied with Magic star Dwight Howard for the league lead with 55 double-doubles. New York is without Larry Hughes who was averaging 13.5 points in 15 games since being acquired in a trade with Chicago. Hughes is questionable tonight, but the Knicks shouldn't have much trouble scoring against the Clippers. New York averages 105.5 points per game and Los Angeles allows 103.7. The Clippers played well on defense in a 90-77 loss to Boston on Monday night, but that was the first time in seven games the Clippers gave up fewer than 100 points. Los Angeles lost for the 11th time in its last 13 contests being outscored by an average of 19.7 points during a nine-game road losing streak. Second-year Clipper forward Al Thornton returned to the lineup Monday after missing a game due to a sore right shoulder as he had 20 points and eight rebounds in this season's first matchup with New York. Even though these two teams put up a lot of points in their game last month that went to overtime, the NY Knicks have gone under the total in six straight games while the Clippers have only averaged 80 points a game in their last three outings. Asking these two struggling teams to score 108 points a piece is way to much.TAKE UNDER 216
EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Los Angeles Clippers @ New York Knicks
(673) Los Angeles Clippers (+7)
Both of these teams are struggling as the Clippers are only 1-4
in their last five games and the Knicks are on a five game losing
steak. But I'll back the Clippers here getting a generous amount
of points. The Knicks are only 4-12 against the spread in their
last sixteen games as a favorite of more than five points. I expect
Zach Randolph to have a big game against his former team and
keep this one within the Vegas number. Take the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 44-39 (53.0%)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
231 - 155 run 60 %
WED NJ Nets
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Wednesday's free selection: New Jersey Nets + 12 1/2
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Rocketman
St. Mary's @ San Diego State
Play: St. Mary's +3.5
St. Mary's barely missed the Big Dance. Many times those teams then go into the NIT and have a huge let down just like South Carolina this year. Other teams, like St. Mary's, go into the NIT wanting to prove themselves to the world and to the committee that a possible mistake was made and that they did deserve a spot in the Big Dance. Also, this team represents a smaller conference and wants to do well for future consideration. St. Mary's is 28-6 this year while San Diego State comes in at 25-9 on the season. St. Mary's is 8-2 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. St. Mary's is 17-1 SU in non-conference games this year. St. Mary's is 4-1 SU and ATS overall vs San Diego State since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on St. Mary's tonight!
Andre Gomes
ORL -3.5 vs BOS
This is clearly the best game of the card and crucial game for the second seed of the Eastern Conference. Remember that the Celtics lead 2-1 the series and a possible win will not only gave the lead for the second spot as both teams have 18 losses, but also gave to the reign Champs the advantage in a potential tiebreaker scenario.
The Celtics are only 4-5 L9 games and they played shorthanded the majority of that games. Kevin Garnett returned against the Spurs and the Celtics are 3-0 with him in the lineup. However if you think that the Celtics are the "old Celtics" you are completely wrong. Garnett isn't completely healthy at all, he is playing less than 20 minutes per game since his return and last game Garnett's minutes in the game were limited to nine in the first quarter and nine in the third, and he appeared tired on several occasions. He didn't play in the second or fourth quarters. Did you notice that Boston was leading by 10 points when Garnett sat out in the first quarter and then the Clippers rallied back and trailed by only 2 points at the break. Yes, the Clippers!
This lack of intensiveness of the Celtics during 48 minutes might work against teams like the Clippers and the Grizzlies but not against top caliber teams like Orlando. Against the Spurs they limited Tim Duncan (he looks injured by the way) to 6-15 FG while the Spurs shot a dismal mark of 4-17 behind the arc; the combination of these 2 stats was the key point for the Celtics' win in San Antonio. I don't expect the same combination against Dwight Howard and the streaky shooters of the Magic tonight.
In this series a healthy Garnett was the key for the Celtics. He had two great games vs the Magic with 7-11 FG, 15 points, 9 rebounds and 8-13 FG, 16 points and 5 rebounds. At the same time Howard shot a combined mark of 9-22 FG while the Celtics outscored the Magic in the paint! This is going to be different tonight. Note that Howard scored 18 points and grabbed 15 rebounds in just 28 minutes in the last game vs Boston where Garnett didn't play and I don't think that Garnett is healthy enough to stop Howard.
The Magic need desperately to win this game to split the series 2-2 and according to the circumstances of this game I believe they have a great chance to win and having 3.5 points is a valuable line for us. Take the Magic in here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Minnesota Under 201
The Under is 8-1 in Timberwolves last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 17-5 in their last 22 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, while the Under is 20-8-1 in 76ers last 29 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Phily home games have averaged 191.3 ppg this year, While Minnesota's road games have averaged 200 ppg. The Sixers have scored 97.8 ppg at home, while the T-Wolves have put up 98 ppg on the road. Philly has played solid defense at home as they have allowed just 93.5 ppg, while the T-Wolves have averaged just 90 ppg in their last 5 games. The T-Wolves last 5 have aveaged just 190 ppg. I don't see this one hiting 200 at all.
Golden State +9.5 over Dallas
2 UNIT PLAYS
CLEVELAND -12.5 over New Jersey
San Antonio +6.5 over ATLANTA
1 UNIT PLAY
PHOENIX -3.5 over Utah
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY (CBI GOY)
Stanford -3 over OREGON STATE
The Cardinal are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite, while the Beavers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Wednesday games. Oregon State took both meetings in the regular season, but the Cardinal got a measure of revenge in the PAC-10 Tourney. Stanford has gone 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Corvallis. Stanford has taken their 1st 2 gamnes of the CBI tourney rather easily, as they crushed Boise State by 20 points and then they won at Wichita State by 14. Oregon State has had the easier schedule in the CBI Tourney, yet they could only beat Houston by 4 (at home) and then they won in OT vs a Vermont team that had to fly all the way cross-country to play the game. OSU has had a hard time at the offensive end of the court this year, as they have averaged just 59.5 ppg (320th) and they have averaged 56.7 ppg vs the Pac-10 this year. Stanford has had no such problems at that end of the floor. The Cardinal comes in averaging 72.9 ppg (84th) on 45.6% shooting (79th) and they also shoot 38.1% (30th) from beyond the Arc. The Beavers do have the advantage at the defensive end as they allow just 63 ppg compared to the Cardinal that allows 68.9 ppg. The Cardinal does have a slight edge on the boards (288th to 338th), plus they have a big edge at the FT line as they are 101st (72.9%) at the charity stripe, while the Beaver as are 293rd (64.6%). The Cardinal comes in averaging 77.6 pg in their last 5 games, while the Beavers have averaged just 56 ppg in their last 5. Despite the defensive edge the Beavers own and the fact they they are playing at home, I just don't see OSU being able to score enough to stay with the hot Cardinal in this one. Stanford big in this one.
4 UNIT PLAY (CIT GOY)
Bradley/ Pacific Over 129
(I know this is a Totals play, but we'll still use it as a GOY). The Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 non-conference games, while the Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 non-conference games. Pacific games have averaged 129.4 ppg on the year, while their road games have put up 131.1 ppg, plus their last 5 overall have averaged 135 ppg. The Tigers aren't an offensive machine at 66.8 ppg (202nd), but they do shoot well as they have hit 46.2% of their shots (57th), including hitting 39.7% fro beyond the arc, which is 14th in the nation. The Braves come in 134th in scoring defense (66.3 ppg), 158th in FG% (43.9%) and they don't defense the arc all that well as they are 241st in 3pt defense (35.5%). The Braves have also allowed 75 ppg in their last 3 games on 46.3% shooting. Bradley hasn't been that great on offense overall this year (67.5 ppg on 43.7% shooting), but it has picked up in heir last 9 games, as they have averaged 72.8 ppg on a solid 46.3% shooting. The Braves have averaged 72 ppg on a healthy 47% shooting at home this year, including averaging 76.3 ppg on 49.7% shooting in their last 6 at home. Bradley's games have averaged 134.5 ppg overall, while their home games have averaged 138.5 ppg. We also note that 8 of their last 10 overall have gone Over the total, with an average of 142.8 ppg being scored,. while their last 6 at home have averaged 146 ppg. Pacific does play defense well, but I do see Bradley being able to crack it, while the solid shooting Tigers should be able to get their points vs a Bradley team that iis struggling to stop thier opponents of late. 130+ is more than in reach in this one and I will call for a game in the 140's.
2 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego State/ St Mary's Over 128.5
The Over is 6-0 in Gaels last 6 non-conference games. Ok let's get the nervous part of this play out the way early and that would be the way the Aztecs can "D" it up. SDSU has allowed just 59.7 ppg on the year and 56.1 ppg at home, but despite those numbers I still feel the Gaels can hit 63 points in this one and that's all I'm looking for out of them. St Mary's comes in averageing 72.8 ppg overall and 68.1 ppg on the road, plus theyr have averaged 77.8 ppg in their last 3 games and that includude them putting up 68 points on the #1 scoring dense in the Nation (Washington St) in the first round of this tourney. So as you can see, 63 points is very attainable by the Gaels here. That just leaves SD State needing 66 points to get the over here. The Aztecs are not an offensive force, but they still have scored 67.2 ppg on the year, including 68.3 ppg at home. The Gaels haven't given up much this year, but they have allowed 68.5 ppg in their last 4 games. Also note that below I have the Aztecs coverng the 3.5, so I'm looking for no less than 67 from them in this one. These teams have met 5 times since '04 and all 5 have put up at least 131 points, with an average of 138.8 ppg being scored in the 5 games. Despite having a couple of teams that play good defense, I still see this one on the mid 130's.
SAN DIEGO STATE -3.5 over St Mary's
The Gaels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, while the Aztecs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. West Coast and -1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. As you can see from the trend above, the Gaels are not a great road dog team. To make matters worse they are playing a game less than 48 hours since their game with Davidson, plus they will be playing on the Atztec's home floor, where SDSU is 15-3 on the year and have outscored their opponents by 12.1 ppg. Just don't see the Gaels staying with the Aztecs for more than a half in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Notre Dame/ Kentucky Under 144.5