SPORTS ADVISORS
Portland (49-28, 41-36 ATS) at San Antonio (50-27, 38-37-2 ATS)
The Trail Blazers wrap up a four-game Southwest Division road trip tonight when they visit the AT&T Center to play the Spurs in a matchup of playoff-bound squads.
Portland bounced back from Sunday’s ugly 102-88 loss at Houston with last night’s 96-93 victory at Memphis, failing to cover as a seven-point favorite. The Trail Blazers have won five of their last six games (4-2 ATS), and despite failing to cash in their last two outings, they’re on an 8-3 ATS run going back to mid-March, including 5-2 ATS on the highway.
The Spurs rebounded from their own embarrassing loss on Sunday – 101-81 at Cleveland as a six-point underdog – with Tuesday’s 99-89 victory over the Thunder as a six-point favorite. San Antonio is still just 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five, including a stunning 96-95 loss to Oklahoma City as a 13-point chalk in its most recent home game. Gregg Popovich’s club, which will play the rest of the regular season and playoffs without All-Star Manu Ginobili (injury), has cashed just four times in its last 12 contests overall and is just 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.
The home team has won all three head-to-head meetings this season both SU and ATS, including the Spurs’ 99-84 victory as a five-point home chalk on Feb. 25. Portland has lost 11 straight games in San Antonio going back to 2002, and it is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to AT&T Center. Finally, the home team has cashed in each of the last five series clashes.
In addition to ATS runs of 8-3 overall and 5-2 on the road, the Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against Western Conference opponents, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five on Wednesday. San Antonio’s ATS slides include 4-8 overall, 1-6 at home, 0-4 against Northwest Division squads, 1-4 against winning teams and 3-9 on Wednesday. The lone positive pointspread trend for the Spurs is their 6-2 ATS streak when playing on back-to-back days.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for Portland against Southwest Division teams, 6-1-1 for the Spurs overall, 4-1 for the Spurs on Wednesday, 6-2-1 for the Spurs against Northwest Division foes and 6-2 in this rivalry (3-0 this season).
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER
Utah (47-30, 38-39 ATS) at Dallas (46-31, 37-40 ATS)
The Jazz continue a brutal three-game road swing against Southwest Division foes with a stop at American Airlines Center for a clash with the Mavericks, who are trying to lock up the Western Conference’s final playoff berth.
Utah is in the midst of a stretch in which it is playing five of six games on the road, with all five roadies coming against playoff-caliber competition (Portland, Denver, New Orleans, Dallas and San Antonio). The Jazz lost the first two games in double-digit fashion to the Blazers and Nuggets, then went home and got stunned by the TWolves 103-102 as a 13-point favorite. However, they got back on track with Sunday’s 108-94 victory at New Orleans as a 2½-point underdog, ending an 0-6 ATS slump and clinching a playoff berth in the process.
Dallas can earn the Western Conference’s eighth and final postseason bid with a victory tonight and a Suns loss at New Orleans. Speaking of the Suns, the Mavericks are coming off Sunday’s 140-116 blowout win over Phoenix, cashing easily as a 3½-point home favorite. Despite that result, Dallas has split its last 12 games, going 5-7 ATS. On the bright side, the Mavs are on an 11-1 SU run at home (8-4 ATS).
The home team has dominated this rivalry lately, with the host taking each of the last seven meetings (6-1 ATS), all as a favorite, including all three clashes this year (3-0 ATS). Going back several seasons, the home team is on a 20-6-1 ATS roll. Utah has gotten the money in five of the last six battles, but the Jazz are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 visits to Dallas. Finally, the winner has scored at least 97 points in each of the last 10 meetings, going over triple digits seven times.
The Jazz are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games against Southwest Division squads, but otherwise they’re in pointspread funks of 1-6 overall, 2-6 on the road, 2-9 against winning teams, 1-5 versus the Western Conference and 1-4 when playing on two days of rest. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when playing after two days off and 16-5 ATS in its last 21 Wednesday outings, but the Mavs are also in ATS funks of 7-15 against the Northwest Division, 1-5 after a SU win, 1-4 after a non-cover and 1-7 following a double-digit victory.
For Utah, the over is on runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 6-2 on Wednesday. The over is also 8-2 in the Mavericks’ last 10 home games and 5-2 in their last seven on Wednesday. Finally, five of the last six Jazz-Mavs meetings in Dallas have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (1-1) at Houston (1-1)
Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09 ERA in 2008) takes the ball for the Cubs in the rubber game of a three-game season-opening series against the Astros, who are scheduled counter with Brian Moehler (11-8, 4.56 ERA).
Houston needed 10 innings to put away Chicago last night, winning 3-2 one night after dropping the opener, 3-1. Chicago is still on positive streaks of 22-10 on the road, 10-5 against Central Division rivals and 11-4 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Astros are on runs of 22-8 at home, 22-8 against Central Division foes, 6-2 against lefty starters, 63-31 versus southpaws at home and 4-1 on Wednesday.
The visitor had won six straight meetings in this rivalry prior to Houston’s triumph Tuesday.
Lilly went 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his final four starts last season, but didn’t get the opportunity to pitch in the playoffs as the Cubs got swept in the best-of-5 divisional round against the Dodgers. Chicago went 10-3 in the southpaw’s last 13 outings, including 7-1 in his last eight road starts. Going back further, the Cubs have won 20 of Lilly’s last 28 starts, including four straight against N.L. Central foes.
Lilly was stellar on the highway last season, going 10-4 with a 3.77 ERA in 19 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two appearances at Minute Maid Park. For his career, Lilly is 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA in six starts against the Astros (2-0, 1.40 ERA in three starts in 2008).
Houston won eight of Moehler’s last 12 starts in 2008, including five of six at home, even though the right-hander surrendered three earned runs or more in half of those 12 outings. Moehler made 17 appearances (14 starts) at home last year, going 6-3 with a 4.36 ERA. Finally, he’s 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA in 10 career appearances (seven starts) against the Cubs, including 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts last season.
The under is 38-15-1 in the last 54 Cubs-Astros battles, including 25-6 in the last 31 clashes at Minute Maid Park (2-0 in this series). Additionally, the under is on runs of 5-1 for the Cubs on the road, 6-1 for the Cubs in divisional games, 7-2 for the Astros overall, 9-2 for the Astros at home, 19-6 for the Astros against the Central Division and 18-7-1 with Moehler starting.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (0-1) at Boston (1-0)
The Red Sox look to build on Tuesday’s season-opening victory over Tampa Bay when they send John Lester (16-6, 3.21 ERA) to the hill in the middle game of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Rays will counter with Rays’ Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49) in a battle of hard-throwing southpaws.
Boston rode a sensational start from ace Josh Beckett to a 5-3 victory Tuesday after Monday’s scheduled opener was rained out. It was the first meeting between the A.L. East rivals since they faced off in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series in October.
With yesterday’s win, the Red Sox are now on a 65-29 run at home and they’re on additional positive streaks of 8-3 at home against southpaw starters, 12-5 on Wednesday, 36-16 with Lester on the hill overall, 22-4 when Lester pitches at Fenway and 17-7 when Lester takes on divisional rivals. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is still on runs of 10-4 in A.L. East games, 11-4 on Wednesday and 21-10 with Kazmir on the hill, but the Rays are 4-9 in their last 13 against lefty starters.
Despite Tuesday’s setback, the Rays are still 11-6 in the last 17 clashes in this rivalry, including last year’s ALCS.
Kazmir made five playoff starts last fall, going 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA. The Rays won the first two games over the White Sox (6-2) and Red Sox (9-8), both at home, but they lost his last three, all by one-run margins, including a wild 8-7 loss at Boston in the ALCS. Kazmir then faced the Phillies twice in the World Series, giving up five runs in 10 innings with Tampa losing 3-2 at home in Game 1 and 4-3 on the road in the clinching Game 5.
Kazmir went 4-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 13 road outings last year, including 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two regular-season starts at Fenway Park. For his career, Kazmir is 6-7 with a 3.62 ERA against in 21 starts against the the Red Sox (4-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 11 games at Fenway).
Lester, who is 27-8, 3.81 ERA in 60 big-league outings (59 starts), had a breakout season in 2008, yielding three earned runs or fewer in 21 of his final 25 regular-season starts. He followed that up with two brilliant performances against the Angels in the American League Division Series (one unearned run allowed on 10 hits in 14 innings). However, Lester got tagged in two starts against Tampa Bay in the ALCS, allowing eight runs (seven earned) on 14 hits (three home runs) in 12 2/3 innings (5.68 ERA), losing both games by the combined score of 12-2.
Lester is 16-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 31 games (30 starts) all-time at Fenway Park, including 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 17 starts last year. Also, prior to the playoffs, Lester had gone 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven regular-season starts against Tampa Bay, with the Red Sox winning all seven contests.
With Lester on the mound, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 on grass and 5-1-1 on Wednesday. Conversely, the over is 8-3 in Kazmir’s last 11 starts overall, 6-0 in his last six against the A.L. East and 7-0 in his last seven against the BoSox.
The under is on runs of 6-1-1 for Tampa Bay overall and 6-1-1 for Tampa Bay against southpaw starters, but the over is on stretches of 4-21-1 for Tampa Bay on the road and 4-2-1 for Boston on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Marc Lawrence
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
The Thunder will be out to avenge a trio of losses suffered this season against the Nuggets when they take the court in Denver tonight. Interestingly, in all three losses Oklahoma City has managed to take down the money. They are are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS of late in this floor when playing without rest. With Denver looking dead ahead to a big showdown with the Lakers in Los Angeles tomorrow night, look for the Thunder to to complete its grand slam of pointspread winners in this series tonight. Take the points with the Okies.
Play on: Oklahoma City
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starter Jon Lester owned a perfect 7-0 lifetime team start record vs. the Rays prior to dropping a pair of decision against them in last year's American League Championship Series. Look for Lester and Boston to continue to get some revenge on Wednesday as we note that the Sox are now 33-12 when priced as a favorite of -125 and -175 at Fenway. Lester is simply dominant here at home where he owns an 18-2 TSR when favored.
Play on: Boston
Frank Jordan
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Atlanta Braves
The Braves have started the 2009 season with two straight wins at the defending champs Philadelphia and on top of that have allowed just one run in two games. Look for things to get tougher for Philadelphia Wednesday as they have to go up against Javier Vazquez. Look for Vazquez and the Braves to complete the sweep. Play Atlanta
Steve Merril
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Over 9
The statistics have been well publicized chronicling the futility of the Phillies lineup so far this season. The 2nd worst start in the history of the MLB for a defending champion as Philadelphia has managed only one run in two games. Things change on Wednesday with an afternoon setting and while it won't be a hot one, the wind will play a factor. They face Javier Vazquez who is very inconsistent and the Phillies have collectively hit .209 off the righty, but Raul Ibanez (.357), Chase Utley (.333), Shane Victorino (.333) have all experienced success. Only Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth have truly struggled against Vazquez. The Braves offense hasn’t had the same problems as Philadelphia and gets another pitcher who they’ve had success against. Atlanta’s team batting average against the righty is .306 with Garret Anderson (.314) and Casey Kotchman (.300) leading the way. Blanton's one outing against Atlanta was only 2 innings long with 2 earned runs and 3 hits. That game ended in a 12-10 slugfest.
Cajun Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Over 8.5
This is the third game of a four-game set between these two teams at Bush Stadium in St. Louis to begin the 2009 campaign. The Pirates will send left-hander Zach Duke to the bump with his 2-4 mark against this Cardinals team along with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.519. In his last three starts versus the Cardinals at Bush Stadium he and his teammates allowed 17 runs to be scored against them. Duke ended the 2008 campaign going 1-2 in his last three games overall and their opponents put up 19 runs against the Pirates in those games. Duke is 16-7-1 ‘over’ his last 24 as a road underdog, 5-1-1 ‘over’ his last 7 as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 14-5 ‘over’ as an underdog of +125 to +175. Pittsburgh is 53-37 ‘over’ as an underdog of +150 or more the last 3 seasons, 48-30 ‘over’ in road games, 26-14 ‘over’ on the road against division opponents and 19-8 ‘over’ during the month of April the last 2 seasons. The host will counter with right-hander Todd Wellemeyer who has posted a record of 3-0 versus the Pirates since 1997 with an ERA of 3.13 and a WHIP of 0.964. Although in those games the Pirates managed to plate 18 runs and the Cards scored 27. Wellemeyer closed out last season by going 1-2 and their opponents scored a total of 12 runs in those games. Wellemeyer is 4-1-1 ‘over’ his last six trips to the bump as a home favorite and the Cardinals are 6-2-1 ‘over’ their last 9 when they are a home favorite of -150 to -200. In this series six of the last eight in St. Louis have sailed ‘over’ the posted total. MLB Umpire Jim Reynolds will be calling the balls and strikes for tonight’s contest and he is 7-1-1 ‘over’ behind home plate in games involving St. Louis and 5-2-1 ‘over’ in games involving the Pirates. Reynolds is 28-11-3 ‘over’ his last 42 games behind the plate. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a total of 9.9 runs to be scored in tonight’s game between the Pirates and the Cardinals. Our Math Model Index also projects this game going ‘over’ the posted total by 2.7 runs above the current total of 8.5. We recommend a play on the ‘over’ in tonight’s battle at Bush!
Graded Selection: 2* Pittsburgh Pirates / St. Louis Cardinals OVER 8.5
Craig Trapp
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +13.5
The NBA is almost finished with the regular season. But the sharp handicappers take advantage of the last few games as motivation wanes for some teams or players. Today Memphis and Orlando are both traveling on back to back games. On top of that both teams lost last night! Lets look at records and recent trends to this game:
Team records:
Memphis: 22-55 SU, 36-40-1 ATS
Orlando: 57-20 SU, 48-28-1 ATS
Recent Trends:
-Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
-Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Grizzlies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
-Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
-Grizzlies are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Lately Memphis and Rookie sensation OJ Mayo have really been playing well. Even though they have nothing to play for Memphis is playing motivated. Orlando is pretty much locked in to there playoff spot and will win this game but no way they cover this spread. Lately ORL has been preparing for the playoffs and don't have near the scoring punch that they did mid season. Today Mayo will go off for 25 plus and keep them within this 13 point spread no problem. SCORE ORL 96 - MEM 90
James Patrick Sports
Jazz vs. Mavericks
Hall of Fame head coach Jerry Sloan brings the Musicians to The Big "D" for a match-up with the Mavs and James Patrick Sports NBA complimentary selection on this Wednesday at James Patrick Sports is Dallas Mavericks as this series has seen the home team cash in at a 20-6-1 ATS rate and the Jazz winners in just 3 of 11 ATS at this stop on the NBA road.
Big Al Mcmordie
Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers
At 8:05pm our member selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Cleveland Indians. The Rangers have always been known for their offense more than their pitching, but with the departure over the last few years of players like Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano, and Milton Bradley, people everywhere keep expecting the run production to taper off. But with young players like OF Nelson Cruz, 2B Ian Kinsler, and 1B Chris Davis stepping in year after year, there seems to be an endless supply of offense in Arlington. Pitching continues to be the big question mark, but the Rangers may surprise some people in that department this season. Kevin Millwood pitched very well in Texas' first game of the season, and newly-minted closer Frank Francisco reportedly has some of the best stuff in the league. Tonight, veteran righthander Vicente Padilla takes the mound at home for Texas and last year, despite some less-than stellar individual numbers, Padilla usually found a way to help his squad, winning 14 out of 22 decisions. 2008 was a lost season for Indians' righthanded starter Fausto Carmona as he followed up 2007's strong performance with some very ugly numbers including a 5.47 ERA and only 58 strikeouts in 120 innings. Carmona may very well turn things around this year, but it will probably take a few starts before we know for sure if the Carmona of 2007 is indeed back. Take the Rangers.
Jimmy The Moose
Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres are hanging from a thread but their playoff hopes don't look good. Tonight they'll face a Leafs team that won in New Jersey last night so they'll be tired. The Sabres are 16-6-1 in their last 23 games vs. a team with a home winning % lower than .400. The Leafs are 7-21 in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Sabres are 5-0 in their last 5 trips to Toronto. The Leafs have lost the last 4 meetings. Play on the Buffalo Sabres -.
DOC
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Randy Johnson the 45 year-old 6’10” southpaw has come home to finish his career and get to the coveted 300-career win mark. Needing just 5 more victories, it should be a done deal by July. But, not tonight Randy. His mound opponent is the Brewers Yovani Gallardo. Mark my word, Gallardo will be the ACE of this staff. He is the real deal and will stifle the Giants on a cool evening by the bay.
Scott Delaney
Fausto Carmona and Vicente Padilla toe the rubber in this one tonight, and I’m seeing a high-scoring affair take place. Carmona tends to struggle when he isn’t pounding the ball down in the strike zone, and that could be a tough chore against the swing-happy Rangers. The big-bodies right-hander often has trouble controlling his fastball at times because of the movement on it, and when that happens he’ll overthrow the slider, as it flattens out and stays up in the zone. That’s where the long ball comes into play. With a Padilla, he has to be careful about getting lazy with his arm, as he tends to work under some pitches. And once he starts walking batters, it’s a bad sign since he is known to get distracted by base runners and frustrated by defensive miscues. Problem is, when he’s giving up so many hits, his teammates never know where the ball will fly.
Taking a look inside the betting numbers, you’ll see why this is an easy choice tonight. With Carmona on the hill, the over is on winning runs of 4-0 when he’s laying a price in this range, 6-1 in his last seven against A.L. West foes, 13-3 when the total is in this range and when he is installed as the chalk and 20-6 in his last 26 starts overall (dating back to last season). On the other hand, with Padilla, the over is on winning streaks of 6-0 when he’s installed as the home pup, 4-0 when he’s at home and the total is in this range, 26-8 when he’s installed as an underdog overall and 5-2 in his last seven against A.L. Central opponents. The high number is on a 9-1 run in this series when it is in Texas and 7-1 overall, so let’s play this one over.
Indians/Rangers OVER
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take the coin with the Nationals (note this is an early noon EST start).
Chris Volstad is a quality young arm and the Marlins are a solid overall team that will compete a bit with the Braves, Mets and Phillies but why not grab this price!?!?!? Yes Florida has looked fairly flawless in their first few games but they are not as good as they have looked, no how no way.
Daniel Cabrera certainly has had his fair share of implosions over the years as an Oriole but now in his first start with Washington I can see the tall righty bear down and tap into that potential. There has never been a doubt that Cabrera has the stuff, it's just a matter of throwing strikes. When this guy is on he is nasty and certainly will want to impress his new mates today down South.
Florida has some studs in Cabrera and Uggla among others quality players and is the better overall team I am not doubting that at all. But the Nationals are not a joke after signing the powerful Adam Dunn to go along with a healthier Nick Johnson and a semi stud in Ryan Zimmerman.
The fish probably do win this game more than they don't but I don't see them prevailing at quite the price that the oddsmaker seems to believe. This game is truly not that far from being 50-50 and at this really solid takeback I'm all about the Nats.
Chris Jordan
Chicago at HOUSTON
The low number comes in tonight between these NL Central rivals, as we’re banking on Brian Moehler and Ted Lilly to proceed in a pitchers’ duel. After all, looking at last season’s numbers, the under is on runs of 4-1 when Ted Lilly was installed as the favorite, and 13-3 when Moehler was the underdog. Houston also comes in on under runs of 4-1 when Moehler is at home against a winning team, 6-2 as a home pup and 11-5 when he takes on NL Central-division foes. In this series, the under is 4-0 when Houston’s righty faces the Cubs, and is 24-6 the last 30 meetings in Houston.
Moehler has good control and has an effective sinking heater that ranges in the high 80s. He continually moves the ball around the plate, so an active lineup like Chicago’s could chase some of his junk, and he can change speeds on the ball. As for Lilly, he has that complicated delivery, and will be on a mission to be perfect tonight in his season-debut. I love to watch him work when his temper is in check, cause he works in and out and back and forth so well with his two-seamer, that biting cut fastball, a slider that breaks tight and cotton-soft curveball that baffles hitters. He also isn’t afraid to throw the change at any time. Look for these two to battle in this one and the score to stay low.
1♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Cleveland (even) at TEXAS
On the diamond tonight with a FREE play on the Indians as they travel to Texas to take on the Rangers.
Love the young arm of the Indians' Fausto Carmona tonight going up against veteran Vicente Padilla for the Rangers. Play Cleveland to win this one.
After going 19-8 in 2007, Carmona was average at best last year, going 8-7 with a 5.44 ERA. Look for him to bounce back big this season as he comes in healthy and ready to pitch. We all remember how good this kid looked in the 2007 playoffs and he didn't work hard enough after that to get ready for 2008.
He worked hard in this offseason and he's ready for a big season. Cliff Lee dropped the ball for the Indians in Texas on Monday and he was supposed to come back strong off his Cy Young season. Carmona needs to pick up his teammate and he'll do it tonight.
Padilla went 14-8 last season with the Rangers in 29 starts with a 4.74 ERA. He was just 2-3 in his last nine starts with four no-decisions but this guy got amazing run support last season. he would give up runs and his offense would come back and get him a lead.
Cleveland is 15-5 in its last 20 games as a 'dog and the Tribe is 10-4 in their last 14 games in Texas.
Play the Indians to get this one behind a strong outing from Carmona.
4♦ CLEVELAND