JIM FEIST
DETROIT PISTONS / NEW YORK KNICKS
Take DETROIT PISTONS
It's never too late in the season to get series. Detroit finally has: Will Bynum scores 32 in a 104-97 win over Charlotte, which puts the Pistons into a tie with the Bulls for seventh place in the East. The Bobcats fell three games back. The Pistons magic number to clinch a playoff spot is two with 5 games left. New York has nothing to play for and is worn out, on a 2-9 SU, 6-5 ATS run. Players and coaches are even talking about next season. Play the Pistons.
DAVE COKIN
SEATTLE MARINERS / MINNESOTA TWINS
Take MINNESOTA TWINS
Carlos Silva was, bar none, the worst starting pitcher in the big leagues last season. Opposing hitters raked for an astonishing .331 average against Silva and he'll have to prove to me he can still get major leaguers out before I stop fading the Seattle righthander. Kevin Slowey had rock solid numbers at home in '08 for the Twins, and rates a big edge here. The price isn't obscene, so the lean is to the Twins to pick up a second straight win over the Mariners.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Suns/Hornets UNDER 221.5
The Hornets have been an unders machine, going under in 11 of their last 14 games. While Phoenix likes to push the tempo, it hasn't been as effective on the road in doing so against good defensive teams. The Hornets are allowing just 91.3 ppg at home this season. New Orleans is 13-4 UNDER in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and 6-1 UNDER in its last 7 home games. Bet the Under tonight.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cardinals as they face the Pirates. Supporting this graded play is a series of angles. Note that the Cardinals are 19-6 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday over the last 3 seasons. Even though it has been just 2 games, the Pirates bullpen will be a severe weakness during the season. In just the first 2 games they have posted a 7.73 ERA and a 1.717 WHIP. Zack Duke is just 2-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.519. Cardinals starter Wellemyer is a solid 3-0 when starting against the Pirates with an ERA of 3.13 and a WHIP of 0.964. Over this 3 game span, he has allowed a paltry BA of just 220 spanning 100 AB to the current members of the Pirates. Wellemyer does not rely on his fastball as much as the average MLB starter. He throws FB 67% overall and 71% on the first pitch. He has an excellent slider that he throws to RH batters and a strong change that he throws to LH batters. Based on the AiS he has an 85% probability of completing 6 innings of work and should that occur the Cardinals have a 90% probability of winning. LaRussa is a strong 99-57 (+22.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Wednesday.
Nick Parsons
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Chicago Blackhawks
Needing one point to clinch its first trip to the postseason, Columbus on Wednesday night will face the Chicago Blackhawks, who can clinch home-ice advantage in the opening round of the playoffs with a victory; with so much on the line, I feel that the deciding factor in this "near playoff" level of intense hockey will be the home ice advantage! Chicago needs one point to reach 100 for the first time in 16 years. Chicago is on a 3-0 run and I look for it to continue its momentum; play on the BLACKHAWKS!
EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Date: Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Game: Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
Sport: NBA
Time: 8:35PM CST
(720) Dallas Mavericks -3
The Mavericks have been playing well at home and they are still fighting
to stay in the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoffs. The
Jazz are 1-11 against the spread in their last twelve games as a road
underdog and the home team has won seven straight meetings between these two teams. I look for both of those trends to continue here. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 53-43 (55.2%)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Wednesday's free selection: Pistons/Knicks over 203 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
241 - 159 run 60 % 6-1 last 7
Wednesday Cleve Indians
S F Giants TUESDAY TY
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Undefeated's picks now 9 wins and 3 losses (66%)
Today's pick = NBA Washington and Cleveland UNDER 200.5 ;D
DUNKEL
Chicago Cubs at Houston
The Astros look to build on their 13-3 record in their last 16 during game 3 of a series. Houston is the underdog pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1.
Game 901-902: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Cabrera) 13.987; Florida (Volstad) 15.098
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-165); Under
Game 903-904: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 16.118; Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.509
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Over
Game 905-906: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 13.915; Arizona (Davis) 15.181
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Over
Game 907-908: NY Mets at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.834; Cincinnati (Volquez) 14.587
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Over
Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Lilly) 15.317; Houston (Moehler) 16.498
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over
Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 15.683; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 14.819
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175) 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+165); Under
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 13.432; San Diego (Silva) 15.009
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Under
Game 915-916: Milwaukee at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.340; San Francisco (Johnson) 13.957
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Under
Game 917-918: Detroit at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Miner) 13.763; Toronto (Litsch) 16.376
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Under
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Wang) 15.270; Baltimore (Uehara) 16.100
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+180); Over
Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 16.150; Boston (Lester) 14.995
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Under
Game 923-924: Cleveland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.984; Texas (Padilla) 15.086
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Under
Game 925-926: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 16.707; White Sox (Floyd) 15.112
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Over
Game 927-928: Seattle at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Silva) 14.890; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.353
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140); Over
Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Eveland) 15.534; LA Angels (Adenhart) 14.052
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over
Jack Jones
Minnesota Twins -148 over Seattle Mariners
Carlos Silva threw just 10.1 innings this spring for the Mariners, but during that body of work he gave up 22 hits and 13 runs while striking out just 4 batters. Kevin Slowey on the other hand threw 25.1 innings and gave up just 6 runs and 3 walks while striking out 22. Silva was 2-8 away from Seattle last year with a 6.70 ERA and 1.63 WHIP and Minnesota scored 9 runs in the 3 innings he pitched against his former team.
AC Sports Advisors
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Atlanta Braves
We like Atlanta here again Phils look hungover and Blanton might have been 4-0 with the Phils but that number is inflated his era was 4.25 with a era like that combined with the Phil not hitting yet leads us to lean on the Braves
Tom Freese
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Utah is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games off a double digit win and they are 25-10 ATS their last 35 games vs. NBA Southwest Division teams. The Jazz are currently the seventh seed in the West while the Mavericks are the eighth seed. Both teams want to avoid being the eighth seed otherwise they would meet the Lakers in the first round. The Mavericks are 1-7 ATS off a straight up win a of over 10 points and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games vs. the Jazz. PLAY ON UTAH +
LT Profits
Kansas City Royals
The Chicago White Sox rallied late yesterday behind an eighth-inning three-run bomb by Jim Thome to beat the Kansas City Royals 4-2, but we look for the Royals to even this series tonight.
Kansas City actually had its hitting shoes on yesterday, but they simply could not get the big hit, leaving 12 men on base. We feel they will break through today in support of Zack Greinke, who was very solid when reinstated in the starting rotation last season, posting a nice 3.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
This marked the second straight year that Grienke had an ERA below 4.00 (3.69 in 2007 splitting time between the rotation and bullpen), and remember that he was still a teenager when he came up to the majors, so he has lots of upside. He closed out 2008 with seven consecutive Quality Starts, including for scoreless outings in that stretch.
Gavin Floyd is another of those pitchers that we simply do not trust after having a career year seemingly out of nowhere last season. In fact, Floyd still has a career ERA of 4.98 even after inexplicably going 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA for the White Sox last season. He did wear down considerably late in the year though, with just two Quality Starts in his last seven outings.
While some of that had to do with fatigue, we also feel that some had to do with Floyd regressing to his normal level and we look for the Royals to take advantage of that tonight.
Pick: Royals +100
John Martin
1 Unit on Texas Rangers +105
(Listing Padilla Only)
Texas is a sleeper in the AL West this season. Don’t be surprised if this team wins the Division by season’s end with a lineup that is as potent as any other team in the league. The Rangers put up 9 runs in a 9-1 win over Cleveland to open the season, and that came against AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Fausto Carmona is in for another poor outing for Cleveland. Texas starter Vicenta Padilla is 11-3 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. Padilla is 13-6 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 1-5 in Carmona’s last 6 starts vs. American League West. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League Central. Cash in with Texas as the underdog.
GREG SHAKER
Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros
Play: Under 9
It should come as no surprise that for the 3rd day, I am playing this series game UNDER. We are getting a better price for this one due to the throwers in this game but the pitchers on the mound are secondary to what we have in the offing here at Minutemade. Make no mistake about it, this is an UNDER Venue and partly due to the fact that the Astros are not a quality offensive team. They have plated just 5 times this year in the previous 2 contests and they will face a guy in Lilly that they have not hit too spiffily over a long period of time. The last time Lilly faced Houston, he allowed one hit and struck out nine in seven scoreless innings of the Cubs 6-1 win over the Astros last September. The left-hander is 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA in six starts against Houston. While Moehler is not the Toast of the Hill, he too has had success against the Cubbies over his 7 starts against them. We can Yada, Yada, Yada all we want about stuff like that, but the primary reason to play this game is because the number is a good one. It will take 10 runs to beat us and that is a lot here in Houston. UNDER has been the name of the game when these two meet and UNDER is the Total of choice when games are played here. It is now 22-8 Over the last 30 contests at this park. Remember Trends do mean something when they mean something. They mean something here. Both Pens are off and running, both teams are striking the ball with mediocrity. Let's just do this UNDER thing one more time. Sometimes that well is just too deep not to.
Wunderdog
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -110
The Braves have taken the first two in this series and will send Javier Vasquez to the mound to go for the sweep. Vasquez is mostly an innings eater that saw his American league central division winning White Sox team manage just a 12-16 mark in his 28 starts. He will not get the same kind of run support in Atlanta as he did in Chicago, and that could make those numbers decline this year. Joe Blanton came over to bolster the Philly staff last season from Oakland and proceeded to lead the Phillies to an 8-4 mark in his 12 starts. He pitched extremely well at home, where the Phillies went 6-1 in his seven starts and I look for the Phillies to take game three.
Portland at San Antonio
Pick: UNDER 180.5
We were on the Spurs last night and got the win, despite the absence of Ginobli. Tonight they will also likely be without Duncan who is slated for rest. San Antonio will revert to great defense to try to win this game. They average just 92.6 ppg allowed at home on the year. Portland can also bring it defensively. They have held their last five opponents to just 87.4 ppg. Without Duncan or Ginobili on offense, I expect this one to be a very tough-fought extremely low-scoring game.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Celtics -10.5
Boston has not played in 5 days and that will be a huge factor tonight as they will be hungry and healthy when they return to the court. This is an important game because the Magic are just a game behind for the No. 2 spot in the East and the Celtics don't want to lose that position as it means home court if the two teams meet in the postseason. Boston has had New Jersey's number, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and the Celtics already have 2 wins over New Jersey by 20 or more points this season. Plays Against - Road underdogs (NEW JERSEY ) - off a home win against a division rival against an opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 34-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the number.