SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Philadelphia (42-41, 37-44-2 ATS) at (3) Orlando (59-24, 49-33-1 ATS)
The Magic aim to bounce back from a stunning series-opening loss when they host the 76ers at Amway Arena in Game 2 of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference set.
Philadelphia rallied from an 18-point third-quarter deficit Sunday, getting an Andre Iguodala 22-foot jumper to fall in the final seconds to pull off the 100-98 upset as a heavy 9½-point underdog. Iguodala paced the Sixers with 20 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, and Philly has followed a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS) with a pair of SU wins (1-1 ATS).
The Magic got a stellar game from Dwight Howard (31 points, 16 rebounds) in defeat, but they have now dropped four of their last five overall and six of their last seven ATS decisions. Sunday’s setback ended a 4-0 SU and ATS run by Orlando in this rivalry, and the underdog is now 24-11 ATS in the last 35 clashes between these teams.
The Magic are 32-10 at Amway Arena this year (23-19 ATS), while Philly is 25-17 on the highway (19-23 ATS).
Along with their current 1-6 ATS skid overall, the Magic are on pointspread dips of 0-7 against the Atlantic Division, 0-5 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 1-4 as a favorite. However, Orlando – which had the league’s second-best regular-season ATS mark -- still sports positive ATS streaks of 9-3 against winning teams, 11-4-1 after a two-day break, 48-18-1 after a SU loss and 37-16-1 after a pointspread setback.
The 76ers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 starts against Southeast Division foes, but they’re still on negative ATS stretches of 1-5 overall (all in the East), 2-5 on the highway, 6-15-1 as a playoff underdog and 3-9-1 as a playoff pup of five to 10½ points.
The under for Orlando is on tears of 6-2 overall, 8-3 at home and 22-9 as a home chalk, but the over for the Magic is on upticks of 4-1 against winning teams and 6-2 when laying points in the playoffs. In addition, the over for Philadelphia is on rolls of 7-0 overall, 10-1 on the road, 7-0 against the Eastern Conference, 7-0 as a ‘dog and 16-7 after a SU win.
Finally, the last two contests in this rivalry have gone high, and the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last seven head-to-head clashes in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and OVER
(5) Miami (43-40, 40-41-2 ATS) at (4) Atlanta (48-35, 44-38-1 ATS)
The Hawks look to grab a 2-0 lead when they face the Heat as this first-round battle between Southeast Division rivals resumes at Philips Arena.
Atlanta pounded Miami in Sunday’s series opener, posting a 90-64 victory as a 4½-point home favorite to halt a three-game ATS skid. Josh Smith had a double-double of 23 points and 10 rebounds, and five more Hawks reached double figure in scoring in the rout. Atlanta has now won five of its last six starts (3-3 ATS), and Sunday’s win and cover stemmed a 3-8 ATS slide in its previous 11 games.
Miami had just two players score in double figures in Game 1, getting 19 points from Dwyane Wade and 10 points from rookie Michael Beasley, who also had 10 rebounds. The Heat scored just 25 second-half points, including only seven in the fourth quarter. The loss ended Miami’s three-game ATS surge, and it fell to 5-8 SU in its last 13 games (7-6 ATS).
The Hawks are 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in five clashes with the Heat this season, and the ATS winner has now alternated in each of the last six meetings. Despite Atlanta’s recent success in this rivalry, Miami is still 21-9 ATS in its last 30 series battles, including 7-3 ATS on its last 10 trips to Philips Arena.
The Hawks improved to 32-10 at home this season with Sunday’s victory (23-18-1 ATS), while Miami -- which finished with the NBA’s worst overall record last year – is 15-27 on the road (20-21-1 ATS).
The Heat have dropped four straight ATS decisions in conference quarterfinal games and are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight starts as a playoff underdog. However, they still carry positive ATS streaks of 6-3 overall, 5-2 versus the Eastern Conference, 5-1 after a SU loss and 6-2 after a pointspread defeat.
The Hawks are on a 9-3-1 ATS surge as a home chalk and are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a spread-cover. But they also remain on spread-covering slides of 2-5 at home, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-5 coming off a SU win.
The under for the Heat is on stretches of 6-0 against winning teams and 8-2 when Miami is a playoff pup, and the under for the Hawks is on rolls of 12-5 at home, 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 in Southeast Division play. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in all five meetings this year, and the under is 6-1 in the last six contests in Atlanta (4-0 in the last four at Philips Arena).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(7) New Orleans (49-34, 35-46-2 ATS) at (2) Denver (55-28, 45-37-1 ATS)
The red-hot Nuggets will try to keep it going when they take on the Hornets in Game 2 of their Western Conference series at the Pepsi Center.
Denver pummeled New Orleans 113-84 in Sunday’s opener, getting 36 points from guard Chauncey Billups –who went an eye-opening 8-for-9 from three-point range – while four other Nuggets scored in double digits. The Nuggets are now 15-3 SU (11-7 ATS) in their last 18 outings, and they’ve cracked the 100-point barrier in 17 of those games, scoring 110 points or more 13 times.
Chris Paul led New Orleans with 21 points and 11 assists, but the Hornets got outscored 58-37 in the second half en route to their third straight loss (1-2 ATS), and they’re now 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) in their last nine games. The three-game skid has all come on the road against playoff teams, as New Orleans finished the regular season with an 86-66 drubbing at Houston as an eight-point pup, then lost at San Antonio 105-98 in overtime but cashing as a nine-point pup.
Denver is 3-2 SU and ATS against New Orleans this season, winning and cashing in the last two meetings, and the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry. However, the Hornets are still 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the Mile High City, and the road team is 11-6 ATS in the last 17 clashes overall.
The Nuggets, who haven’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 1994 and are still just 5-23 in their last 28 playoff games, are 34-8 at home (24-17-1 ATS) this season, while New Orleans is 21-21 as a visitor (16-25-1 ATS).
Denver is on positive ATS streaks of 9-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-3 against the West, 5-1 as a favorite, 22-5-1 as a home chalk of five to 10½ points and 8-3 against winning teams. Despite Sunday’s outcome, though, the Nuggets are still just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 first-round playoff games.
The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a non-cover, but they are otherwise on pointspread purges of 8-20 as an underdog, 3-7 on the road, 7-19 as a road pup, 0-4 against the Northwest Division, 0-6 catching five to 10½ points and 2-6 against the Western Conference.
The over for Denver is on rolls of 7-2 at home, 8-3 with the Nuggets favored and 9-4 against winning teams. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in nine of the last 13 clashes in Denver, with Sunday’s game barely eclipsing the 195½-point posted price. On the flip side, the under for New Orleans is still on streaks of 14-6 overall, 8-2-1 against teams with a winning home record and 7-2-1 when the Hornets are a playoff ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (7-6) at Chicago Cubs (8-4)
Ted Lilly (2-0, 3.86 ERA) looks to pick up his third victory in as many starts in 2009 when he takes the ball for the Cubs and opposes Reds youngster Johnny Cueto (0-1, 4.22) in the middle game of a three-game set at Wrigley Field.
After two days off because of a rainout and a scheduled off day, Chicago returned to the field Tuesday and pounded out a 7-2 victory, its third consecutive win. The Cubs carry hot streaks of 6-2 overall (all as a favorite), 58-27 at home (4-2 this year), 5-1 against the N.L. Central and 12-5 on Wednesday.
Cincinnati had a modest two-game winning streak snapped last night, but remains on runs of 6-3 overall (all against N.L. Central rivals), 5-3 on the road, 5-3 as an underdog and 12-5 against lefty starters. On the downside, the Reds have lost six of their last seven on Wednesday.
These division rivals were highly competitive against each other last season, with Chicago holding a slim 8-7 edge. However, the home team has won 12 of the last 17 clashes.
Cueto lasted just 4 2/3 innings at Houston on Friday despite giving up just two hits and a run, with the Reds rallying for a 2-1 road win. The right-hander has just one quality start in his last seven outings dating to last season. Cueto faced the Cubs four times in his rookie season last year, going 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA, including 0-2 with a 3.29 ERA in two games at Wrigley Field.
The Reds have lost 12 of Cueto’s last 17 road starts and eight of his last 11 against Central division rivals.
Lilly had his scheduled start Sunday against the Cardinals rained out, so he hasn’t worked since April 13, when he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in a 4-0 home win over the Rockies. He finished allowing just the single hit and two walks while striking out eight in 6 2/3 frames, a much sharper performance than his first outing when he yielded five runs and eight hits over five innings in an 11-6 win at Houston.
Lilly has struggled against the Reds in his career, going 1-5 with a 5.24 ERA in nine starts, and Chicago is 1-7 in his last eight outings against Cincinnati, including 0-5 in the last five. In four starts versus the Reds last year, the southpaw went 0-4 with an 8.15 ERA.
Chicago is unbeaten in Lilly’s last six starts overall, and with the lefty on the hill the Cubbies are on further runs of 22-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 12-2 against winning teams, 5-0 as a favorite and 5-0 versus the N.L. Central.
Cincinnati is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall (all on the road and all against the N.L. Central), 11-1-1 when facing southpaw starters on the road, 13-5-1 with Cueto on the mound and 9-1-1 when Cueto works on the road. Also, the Cubs have stayed under the total in each of Lilly’s last six home starts, but otherwise Chicago is on “over” stretches of 6-1-1 overall (all at home) and 6-0 against the N.L. Central. Finally, the over is 4-1 in Lilly’s last five starts against Cincinnati.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
N.Y. Mets (6-7) at St. Louis (9-5)
The Mets continue their three-game road trip at Busch Stadium when they send John Maine (0-2, 7.20) to the mound opposite the Cardinals’ Joel Pineiro (2-0, 5.40).
New York blew a 4-0 lead in Tuesday’s series opener and lost 6-4 for its second consecutive setback. The Mets, who have yet to win or lose more than two consecutive games in 2009, are now 3-4 on the road this season, but they’re otherwise on positive streaks of 10-5 against the N.L. Central, 13-7 versus right-handed starters, 20-7 on Wednesday and 6-0 in the second game of a series.
The Cardinals snapped a mini two-game slide with last night’s victory. St. Louis has won five straight home games, and the Redbirds are on further upticks of 15-5 overall, 7-2 against the N.L. East and 6-0 at home against right-handed starters.
Since St. Louis beat New York in seven games to claim the 2006 National League pennant, these teams have met 15 times, with the Mets winning nine of those contests, including taking five of eight at Busch Stadium.
Maine, who missed the final month of last season because of a shoulder injury that required surgery, has gotten off to a rocky start. He’s pitched just five innings in each of his first two outings, giving up two runs in a 5-4 loss at Florida and six runs in Thursday’s 6-5 home setback to San Diego. Going back to last year, Maine hasn’t pitched more than 5 2/3 innings in any of his last six starts, five of which New York has lost, including the last four in a row.
Maine is 2-2 with a 4.62 ERA in five career outings (two in the playoffs) against St. Louis, though he’s allowed only six earned runs in his last four starts against the Redbirds spanning 20 1/3 innings (2.66 ERA).
Pineiro gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings in his most recent start a week ago tonight in Arizona, but St. Louis bailed him out in a 12-7 victory, improving to 3-0 in the right-hander’s last three starts. Pineiro was sharp in his first home effort of 2009 (two runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-3 victory over the Astros), and he went 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA at home last year.
Pineiro has faced the Mets three times since September 2007, and the Cardinals won all three games. That includes a pair of victories last year by scores of 8-7 and 10-8, despite the fact Pineiro allowed nine runs on 21 hits in nine innings in those two contests.
The Mets have won 14 of Maine’s last 16 Wednesday starts, but they’ve lost four of his last five on the road and six straight games with Maine opposing N.L. Central opponents. Meanwhile, with Pineiro on the bump, St. Louis is on streaks of 4-1 at home, 4-0 on Wednesday and 6-1 against the N.L. East.
The over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between these squads and 5-0-1 in the last six clashes at Busch Stadium. Additionally, the over for the Mets is on streaks of 12-5 against the N.L. Central, 36-17-4 on Wednesday and 11-3-3 in Maine’s last 17 starts overall. while St. Louis has topped the total in six straight overall, nine of its last 12 at home and eight of Pineiro’s last 11 starts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Vernon Croy
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Diego Padres
Take San Diego ML, This pick falls into one of my MLB systems and the Padres have the better overall pitcher on the mound today. The Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games against a lefty starter and they were hitting .300 as a team over their last 7 games before last night's game. The Padres are a perfect 5-0 in Young's last 5 starts for them dating back to last season and they are 15-6 in Young's last 21 road starts against a team that has a losing record. The Giants are just 8-20 in Zito's last 28 starts against a team that has a winning record and they are just 3-15 in Zito's last 18 starts as a home dog. Take San Diego at a great price as my MLB Free Play for Wednesday.
Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
Rough day yesterday as Craig's free play lost with Pittsburgh Pirateswinning the second game in a row verse Florida Marlins. Today Craig is going to bounce back in a big way with the easiest M/L winner of the week. Check out the trends and records for these two teams!
Records
Cincinnati Reds 7-6 Cueto 0-1 (4.22 ERA)
Chicago Cubs 8-4 Lilley 2-0 (3.86)
Betting Trends
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
Cubs are 5-0 in Lillys last 5 starts as a favorite.
The Reds pitching has been pretty solid this season but there hitting has been very average. In fact they in the bottom 10 teams in the league in batting average and hitting with runners in scoring position. On the other hand the Cubs have been scoring in bunches and at home they are hitting almost .300. Lilley is a solid pitcher that is not overpowering but is very consistent. Cueto for the Reds can get rattled once guys get on base and with this power lineup for the CUBS could be a major problem on WED!! Easy winner and might even be a great Run Line Play. SCORE CHC 6 - CIN 2
Mike Rose
Philadelphia 76ers +10.5
The Sixers enter Wednesdays Game 2 once again an undeservedly heavy underdog to the Magic. After Sundays 100-98 victory, the oddsmakers still gave the Sixers no love for their efforts. F Andre Iguodala led the Sixers to a win in Game 1 with his 20 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. His 20 foot jump shot with two seconds remaining propelled Philadelphia to the narrow victory. The good news for Sixers bettors is that underdogs are 24-11 ATS in the L/35 meetings of this series.
The Magic were stunned after blowing an 18-point third quarter lead in Game 1. If Orlando is to cover this gargantuan spread in this spot, it'll need a better performance from its top three players. F Hedo Turkoglu was completely irrelevant in Game 1 scoring just six points, and he lofted a massive brick while taking Orlandos last shot of the contest. Also of note is the eye injury to Magic C Dwight Howard who is listed as probable for Game 2. No doubt he'll play, but it could hamper his production. Orlando has reached 100 points just once in its L/10 overall after averaging 101.3 PPG during the regular season.
The Sixers will cover this spread once again and could possibly walk away with another narrow victory come Wednesday night. The Magic are a team in complete disarray after Sundays loss and with Turkoglu not at full strength theyre in deep trouble. Orlando has every reason to come out angry and cover this spread, but Phillys game and will fight the Magic tooth and nail. Grab the heaping load of points with confidence!
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Atlanta w/Jurrjens vs. Lannan
Woe are the Nats. Despite a pair of wins over the Braves to open this series, they will likely find them languishing in the cellar most of this campaign. To make matters worse they face a promising young star in Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens who is out of the gate in strong fashion this season. With Washington's John Lannan 5-15 in his last 20 starts and 5-12 in his MLB career team starts in April, look for Washington's woes to continue here this evening as the Braves salvage the series finale this evening.
James Patrick
Chicago vs. Calgary
The Blackhawks and the Flames go at it in Calgary and Chicago is Under the Total in 17 of 22 on Wednesday and at a 9-3-1 ATS pace Under the Total their past 13 contests. The Flames are Under the Total in 13 of 16, 7 of 9 when favored and at a 10-4-1 rate at home. Let James Patrick put the red light on for you in NHL action with a complimentary selection on Blackhawks - Flames Under the Total.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Baltimore (Guthrie) over White Sox
The O's opened at 6-3 this season, but like prior years, they go east and face the Red Sox and now set up at 6-7 overall going into the Chicago series at Camden Yards. In addition, a great utility player Ryan Freel was placed on the disabled list yesterday. His club house presence will be sorely missed over the next few weeks. Still, I like our chances this evening with the Birds who play extremely well in April at home. The Orioles are 7-1 with Guthrie in game #2 in the season, while going 9-4 as a home chalk last thirteen times out. Chicago is 1-7 in game #2 of a series, 6-16 on the road versus RHP and 17-35 in roadies against teams with a .600+ mark at home. Finally, the Sox show at 0-4 on Wednesday's.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles at Houston
Roy Oswalt has been on the winning side 5 of his 7 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Houston is 8-2 their last 10 games vs. lefty starters and they are 11-5 in Game 2 of a series. Los Angeles is 0-8 their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than 40%. The Dodgers are 2-5 when Randy Wolf pitches game 2 of a series. PLAY ON HOUSTON (Oswalt vs. Wolf)
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: Over
The team's have played the over in the first 3 games of the series. Boston comes into this one having played the over in 6 straight games. The over is 6-1 in the Bruins last 7 road games. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. Montreal has played the over in 4 of their last 5 games. In their last 12 divisional games the over is 10-1-1. The last 4 meetings between the clubs has played over the total and tonight's follow suit. Play the over.
Big Al Mcmordie
New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: New York Mets
At 8:05 pm, our member selection is on the New York Mets, with John Maine, over the St. Louis Cardinals and Joel Pineiro. Maine is one of my favorite hurlers in the game, and this is a great spot to take him, as the Mets are 0-2 this year in his starts (Maine has a 7.60 ERA), but Maine's WHIP is still a very solid 1.30). The Cardinals' pitching staff has not been effective of late, as it's surrendered 37 runs in its last six games (at least four runs in each), and Pineiro's given up 17 hits in 11 2/3 innings, and has an overall WHIP of 1.80. Maine has given up just three earned runs in his last four road starts. Take New York.
Carlo Campanella
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
San Diego finds themselves as slight road Favorites in San Francisco on Wednesday afternoon. The favoritism is due to Chris Young starting on the mound. The Padres have won Young's last 3 starts and he should get another victory as San Diego is now 3-1 against the Giants this season, after losing 2-8 last night. He owns a major Pitching Advantage over Barry Zito, who's lost his last 3 starts dating back to last season and has been shelled for 10 Earned Runs in his 9 Innings Pitched this year- both losses.
7* Play On San Diego
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take the points with the Hornets.
I really cannot rationalize what happened in game one because frankly the visitors from New Orleans got the Bejesus knocked out of them. Denver was clearly the far superior team then and at home usually are the best team on the court.
The Nuggets are a very talented team that could make a run in these playoffs. Chauncey Billups has brought a ton of leadership to this squad and has stabilized the entire organization. With Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson the talent was always there but things just did not mesh the way they are now. Throw in JR Smith and Nene and a few others and the Nuggets are a deep and scary team.
But with the above paragraph I still can't help but back arguably the greatest Point Guard on the planet right now in Chris Paul and what is still a very good team. It seems as if the Hornets had a down year but yet the record was still very very good and that was with a ton of injuries including missed games by Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler. With the trio back and healthy this team plus a half a dozen or so points anywhere cannot be construed as anything but a solid enough value.
I am not expecting the Hornets to pull out the win but after being embarassed in game one I see no way that Paul does not have his team play much more inspired ball and compete for the full 48 minutes.
New Orleans definitely has factors going against them tonight in the rarified air of Denver but this team will man up and play well and atone for the last egg they layed.
Bobby Maxwell
Miami at ATLANTA -4'
Hit our second straight FREE winner on Tuesday as the Angels got a home win over the Tigers. Today we're on the NBA hardwood as we go with the Hawks at home over the Heat.
How good did Atlanta look on Sunday? They absolutely crushed the Heat in a 90-64 opening-game victory in Atlanta. Tonight it won't be that bad, but the Hawks will pull away late and win this one by 10.
Josh Smith had 23 points and 10 rebounds in the opener and five of his teammates reached double-digit scoring. Meanwhile, the Hawks defense was beautiful, allowing just two Heat players to reach double-figures in scoring, inclduing just 19 from the league's leading scorer in Dwyane Wade and just 10 from rookie sensation Michael Beasley.
Miami managed just 25 second-half points and just seven in the fourth quarter. The Hawks are 4-1 in five meetings with the Heat this season and they improved to 32-10 at home this season, including 23-18-1 ATS. The Heat are just 15-27 on the road this season and remember, these guys are that far removed from the worst record in the league last season.
Atlanta is on runs of 9-3-1 as a home chalk and 8-2-1 after a spread-cover. We like the way they look at home, so let's lay the chalk and play the Hawks.
3♦ ATLANTA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Miami at ATLANTA -4'
After watching the Atlanta Hawks dimiss the Miami Heat, 90-64 on Sunday night, we firmly believe that if Miami is to get on board in this series it is going to have to come on their home hardwood.
Atlanta just doesn't lose on their homecourt at this time of the year, just ask the Boston Celtics!
The Hawks are 32-10 straight up at home this year, and are currently 23-18-1 against the spread in those games played at Philips Arena.
Miami isn't exactly burning things up to end the season, as they are currently 4-6 straight up their last 10 games, and they are now better than .500 over their last 6 games against the spread.
We see Miami team that is just too youthful to contend on the road at this time of the season, and the fact Atlanta has won the last 3 series meetings, and 7 of the last 9 overall while covering in 5 of those 9 has us on the Hawks to once again make it look easy on their home floor.
It won't be another 26-point blowout, but the end result will be another Hawks win, and cover.
Play on Atlanta.
4♦ ATLANTA
Karl Garrett
Miami at ATLANTA
G-Man gave you another easy winner last night on the OVER between the Jazz and Lakers, now 96-71-4 with my comp play selections.
So the Heat and the Hawks play a Game One UNDER by more than 30-points, and the adjustment the linesmakers make is only a basket or so!?!?!!?
G-Man has to look UNDER once again in Game Two of this best-of-seven series.
For one thing, the last 5 meetings, and 7 of the last 9 series showdowns have held UNDER the posted price. For another thing, 24 of the 42 home dates the Hawks have played have stayed UNDER the total.
With Miami's offense looking quite challenged - see the whopping 64 points in Game One - it is hard to envision this game seeing enough points to climb OVER the total.
Until I see some concrete evidence this young Miami team is capable of ringing the bell consistently, I will play the UNDER.
2♦ UNDER