Tom Freese
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Kansas City starter Zack Greinke has been lights out allowing one run total in his four starts winning all four of them. The Royals are 11-2 their last 13 games as favorites and they are 10-3 off a loss and they are and they are 13-3 with Greinke when they are favored. Toronto starter Brian Tallet has pitched pretty well this year but he is clearly in over his head here against Greinke. PLAY ON KANAS CITY - (Greinke vs. Tallet)
Dennis Macklin
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Under
Seattle's Erick Bedard has been terrific for the M's and rocks 2-1 and 2.08 numbers with nasty 0.920 whip. He doesn't always get support. In fact, nine runs in three games, eight in one game. Gavin Floyd hasn't been pretty to watch in April but was a home field specialist in last season's breakout year. Teams played twin bill last night so both starters will be expected to take it as long as it can and neither team hitting a lic. Play the under
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
TAM (-135) vs MIN
A recap of their last game together: TWINS 4, RAYS 3: 2B Akinori Iwamura couldn't make a clean play on Justin Morneau's bases-loaded groundball in the bottom of the ninth, allowing the winning run to score. Ben Zobrist tied the game in the top of the ninth with a pinch home run off Joe Nathan. Tonight's starting pitcher for the Rays: Tampa Bay SP Scott Kazmir allowed two hits over six innings and the Rays beat the Athletics 8-2 on Friday night. Kazmir (3-1) retired the final 11 batters he faced and did not allow a hit after Jack Cust led off the second with a single. He walked three and struck out two as he improved to 7-2 all-time against the A's, matching his most wins against any team and I expect him to be sharp again tonight. Look for TAMPA BAY to improve to 8-5 (+2.4 units) against right-handed starters!
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +105 over Washington Nationals
The Philadelphia Phillies have torn up left-handed pitching this year, going 4-0 with a .340 batting average and scroing 9.7 runs per game. That means they should have a hey day today against Scott Olsen, who has given up 16 runs on 23 hits in 14 innings as a vistior this year. Bretty Myers hasn't given up an ER in his last two starts against Washington, totaling 16 innings and with the Phillies winning five in a row, all by more than a single run, I'll play the run line today.
Jeff Benton
Let’s build on my 21-12 run with free plays on Wednesday as we back the Tigers as a nice-sized home underdog against the Yankees.
Don’t exactly see the justification for this line. Sure, New York wiped out Detroit 11-0 last night – scoring 10 of the runs in the seventh inning – but the Yankees are still just 10-10 on the season and 6-8 on the road, while the Tigers are 11-9 overall and 5-2 at Comerica Park. Plus, Detroit has still taken seven of the last 10 from New York, including Monday’s 4-2 series-opening victory.
As for this pitching matchup, I just don’t see a huge advantage for the Yankees. Joba Chamberlain has an A-plus arm, but he’s really yet to prove himself as a starting pitcher. He’s been inconsistent to begin this season, giving up five runs each (all earned) in two of his starts while surrendering a total of five runs (two earned) in his other two outings. Also, New York is just 1-3 with Chamberlain on the mound this season, with the one victory coming at home and all three defeats coming on the road.
Meanwhile, Tigers rookie right-hander Rick Porcello has been solid if not spectacular so far. His 4.50 ERA is only a notch above Chamberlain’s 3.94 ERA, and Porcello has had to pitch all three of his games on the road. And one important thing I’ve been tracking with the Yankees for three-plus years now is their constant struggles to hit pitchers they’ve never before seen. Finally, while the Tigers’ bullpen has been a mess this season (5.34 ERA), New York’s has been even worse (6.18 ERA).
Add in the fact that Detroit has won six of its last seven games after a defeat and the Tigers absolutely are a live ‘dog here.
4♦ DETROIT TIGERS
Scott Delaney
Play the Over with the Nuggets/Hornets tonight in Denver.
Whether or not the Nuggets cover this game, one thing is for sure, and that is they'll be pushing the rock against a team that is all but left-for-dead after that humiliating 58-point loss at home Monday night.
You would think the Hornets would show some pride tonight, and play an offenisve game to stay in this thing, or at least to show some pride before bowing out. And to do that, they'll need to play offense, not try to stop Denver's scoring barrage.
Though I see a plethora of numbers supporting the under, the high number is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six home games (2-0 in this series) and is also on a 9-3 run in Denver’s last 12 games as the installed chalk.
Most importantly, in this rivalry, these two teams have topped the total in each of their last four meetings inside the Pepsi Center.
This one goes high tonight.
Hornets/Nuggets OVER
Jake Timlin
With Portland forcing a game 6 last night I am now 6-2-2 with my complimentary releases in the NBA playoffs this season.
Even with the Oddsmakers finally giving the Nuggets the respect they deserve in this series I still don’t think it’s enough here tonight. Not when Denver is fresh off a 58 point road win in game 4 of this series to go with their pair of double digit wins to open up this series. In fact with the Nuggets having won 4 of the last 5 series games played and covering all five of those games I am shocked tonight’s number is not even higher.
Meanwhile, for New Orleans given their embarrassing performance last game out its tough imagining them bounce back on the road in Denver where they have lost their last 3 games both straight up and against the spread.
Bottom line the Nuggets are clearly better than the Hornets and not wanting to travel back to New Orleans for a game 6 I fully expect for Denver to wrap of this series tonight and to do so by at least 13 points.
All Denver minus the home chalk!
PICK: Denver Nuggets
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Over 7.5
Ryan is 17-6 ATS w/ his 10* NBA Titan releases this season. Here is another one for you to unload on that is reinforced by TWO tremendous proven money making systems + meaningful game dependent angles. His AiS methodology shows an 85% probability that this play win will win ATS. Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Mets/Marlins. AiS shows a 74% probability that 8 or more runs will be scored in this game and a 50% probability that one of these teams may score 8 on their own merit. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 45-17 mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play over with NL home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season. Florida is 17-4 OVER (+13.2 Units) in road games versus a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 2 seasons. Mets are a solid 12-2 OVER (+10.0 Units) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER.
Scott Rickenbach
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Under 10.5
The Rockies, on a mild afternoon with (possibly!) some favorable winds, are expected to score plenty here along with the Padres. However, we just don't see it that way and will grab the line value on this total by taking the UNDER. The Rockies Aaron Cook has found his sinker again and he's actually pitched much better at home this season than he has on the road. Cook also has a 2.74 ERA in his career against the Padres. San Diego sends Kevin Correia to the mound and, don't be fooled by his winless record in three starts on the season.
Correia's respectable 4.50 ERA doesn't even do justice to the fact that he's been handcuffing hitters to the tune of a .228 batting average against! Also, the Padres right-hander has held the Rockies to a .237 BAA in his career and this has been compiled in 22 games (5 starts) so Correia has consistently fared well against the Rockies. This total is now approaching an eleven and, yet, just as in yesterday's game we expected the total runs to end up at seven! Great line value here as this will be much more of a pitchers' duel than people are expecting. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Colorado on Wednesday afternoon.
Rocketman Sports
St Louis @ Atlanta
Play: St Louis
St Louis is scoring 5.7 runs per game overall this year, 5.4 runs per game on the road and 6.6 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Atlanta is scoring only 4.1 runs per game overall, 3.7 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Atlanta bullpen has a 5.11 ERA overall this year. Wainwright is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA overall this year. Wainwright is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA overall vs Atlanta since 1997. Vazquez is 2-6 overall vs St Louis since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers +134
After getting shut out 11-0 last night, expect the Tigers, who are 5-2 at home this season, to bounce back and take the series. It was no surprise that the Yanks finally broke a 4-game skid against Jackson yesterday, but the reality is that New York is struggling with A-Rod out, and the bullpen has been atrocious. Both teams will see pitchers they've never seen tonight, but that gives the edge to the Tigers at home with a better lineup right now. Lastly, we'll play against a road team (NY YANKEES) - average hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games because this system is 37-14 the last 5 seasons. Fade the Yankees.
JrTips
HORNETS vs. NUGGETS
The Denver Nuggets won in a 121-63 shellacking over the Hornets Monday Night and they are up 3-1 in their best-of-seven series. The Nuggets stifled All-Star point guard Chris Paul, whose four points and six assists amounted to one of the worst games of his career, with waves of double teams that caused him to have a half-dozen turnovers. The Nuggets have put so much pressure on Chris Paul that he feels like he's being blitzed the entire game and they won't change their strategy for Game 5. The Hornets entire organization was embarressed from taking the worst losss in NBA history and they will come back hungrier and more aggressive than they have played all year. The Nuggets have too much fire power for the Hornets to get the win in Denver but as professionals that were embarresed in front of the entire sports world, they will play a competitive game tonight and stay within the number. TAKE NEW ORLEANS+10 1/2
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay starting pitcher Scott Kazmir has been tremendous on the road this season as he has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings of work with a 2-0 TSR. He has pitched well in his career against the Twins with a 3.18 ERA in five starts, but has not gotten the run support. As a favorite, he has a 21-6 TSR. He will be opposed by Twins righty Nick Blackburn who has just one start against the Rays in his young career and it is one that he would probably like to forget about. He allowed six earned runs and walked three batters in less than two innings on the mound. Take the Rays
Play on: Tampa Bay
Sports Gambling Hotline
Miami at ATLANTA -5'
Game Four of this series on Monday was well UNDER the posted price of 186 total points, as the teams combined for a paltry 152 points.
We expect another LOW-SCORING contest in Game Five, as the UNDER trends are starting to become to overwhelming to ignore.
With Monday's LOW, the last pair in this series, and 3 of the first 4 have landed UNDER the posted price. Overall, 7 of the last 8 series meetings dating back to the regular season have held LOW.
Atlanta has played 43 home games to date, and 24 of the 43 have played UNDER the posted price.
With this being the "swing game" in what now amounts to a best-of-three series, look for the teams to emphasize defense first, and the points on the socreboard to be limited.
Play on the UNDER.
4♦ UNDER
Karl Garrett
New Orleans at DENVER -10'
Let me ask you a question...Do you think the Hornets had any fun flying to Denver in preparation for tonight's elimination game? LOL
New Orleans was embarrassed mightily on Monday night, losing by 58-points, and while one would think the Hornets would show a little pride tonight, and try to compete, I just don't see them hanging in this game for the full four quarters!
Denver has shown that they can consistently handle this New Orleans team, as the Nuggets are now 5-2 straight up the last 7 times these teams have faced one another, and the Nuggets are also 6-1 against the spread in those 7 meetings.
New Orleans owns just 2 outright wins, and 2 covers in their last 9 games dating back to the regular season, and after watching the heartless-effort they showed on Monday, there is no way I can throw good money on this team in decline.
Nuggets roll!
3♦ DENVER