Drew Gordon
New Orleans +10' at DENVER
After Monday's 58-point record-setting blowout at the hands of the Nuggets, it would be REALLY easy sit here and tell you to lay the points with Denver in tonight's Game 5 match up. However, that would be a mistake and here's why:
Clearly the Hornets mailed it in Monday, as the margin mounted, they simply threw in the towel and the final score snow-balled to a 58-point shellacking. Granted, you never like to see a team quit, but under the circumstances, it was understandable. Needless to say, the Hornets were embarassed like I've never before in the NBA Playoffs, and I expect them to respond accordingly tonight. Don't misunderstand, I don't mean they'll win outright, but they sure as hell will keep this game within the number.
So to get an idea of how the Hornets can keep this game competitive, let's look over Game 3 (the only game they won). What was the difference? Two things, and they both have a lot to do with each other: effort AND defense. Hornets held the Nuggets to 40% shooting, including Billups, Anthony, and Smith to a combined 18 of 48 from the field (or 37% shooting)! Its all begins and ends with defense, because we've seen from this series that New Orleans cannot play the run-and-gun style that Denver likes to play.
Finally, there's the all-important letdown factor. C'mon guys, its only human nature to take your foot off the gas after destroying your opponent by 58-points the game prior. Coach Karl can say what he will to motivate his troops, but there's no doubt in my mind the Hornets will play with more energy tonight. Denver wants to finish this series on their home floor (and they most likely will tonight), but that doesn't mean the Hornets are simply going to lay down and die. Look for Paul and company to give their last stand tonight, grabbing the cash in the process!
Small play on New Orleans plus the points over Denver in Game 5 of this Western Conference Playoffs series.
1♦ NEW ORLEANS
San Diego +135 at COLORADO
Intriguing match up here, because the price on this contest is based heavily on Aaron Cook's past efforts against the Padres, but that's not a good indicator of success tonight and here's why:
You see, while Cook is 11-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 18 career starts against the Friars, he hasn't pitched anything like that thus far this season. He's 0-1 with an ugly 8.35 ERA (Rockies 0-4 in his starts this season), and is coming off a start against the Dodgers in which he pitched relatively well, but walked SIX batters! In the start prior, he got tagged for 5 runs in 4 innings, so let's not get carried away with Cook's past efforts, especially when he struggling badly in the present!
Opposing Cook is the Padres Kevin Correia, who's 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA on the season. He's also having issues walking batters, but overall his efforts this season have been far more consistent than Cook. I liked what I saw in his last start against the Pirates, despite the 4 walks, and I expect he can build off that effort today. Note, he's 1-1 with a solid 2.52 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rockies!
Finally, its important to note, for all the Padres issues at the plate, they're hitting righties well of late, batting .316 against them over their last 10 games! On the flip side, the Rockies have not been swinging the bats nearly as well, batting just .249 against righties at Coors this season.
Bottom line, I can understand the temptation to side with Cook after looking at his numbers against the Padres in the past. But anyone who's seen him pitch this season, knows he's still in early season form and is vulnerable in this spot against a Padres team hitting righties well of late. Correia hasn't been great, but he's been good enough. Let's grab some of that plus money with the Friars this afternoon!
Take San Diego behind Correia over Colorado and Cook in this MLB match up.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -125
I'll bet the Rays tonight as Kazmir gives them an edge over Blackburn and the Twins. The Rays are an impressive 24-11 in Kazmir's last 35 starts, 21-7 in Kazmir's last 28 starts as a favorite, and 6-1 in his last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The Twins have struggled against the AL East and also in the underdog role. The Twins are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. American League East and 4-14 in their last 18 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. They are also 0-6 in Blackburn's last 6 starts vs. American League East and 1-8 in Blackburn's last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Rays.
GoodFella
HOU (+130) vs CIN
Houston has outscored Cincinnati 12-4 in the first two games, including Tuesday night's 8-3 win. With 10 hits Tuesday, the Astros have batted .311 with 17 home runs during their 11-game win streak at the Great American Ball Park, which began Sept. 25, 2007. "They like to come in here and hit,"Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "They were commenting around the batting cage about how they feel comfortable and confident playing here." Tonight, the Reds give the ball to the talented but WILD Edinson Volquez. Volquez has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his four starts and issued a career-high seven walks - five in one inning - in a 4-3 loss Friday night to Atlanta. I have watched the full game in both of Volquez's last two starts...& he just does not have command over his pitches right now, & Houston has some very patient hitters, who should be able to wait him out & take advantage of his wildness. Houston will look for a repeat effort from Felipe Paulino tonight (0-1, 3.00), in his second start this season against the Reds, the right-hander pitched six scoreless innings opposite Volquez on April 19. Volquez, won all three career starts over Houston and allowed one earned run in each, including a 4-2 win April 19. Those numbers dont mean a whole lot to me, considering I have personally watched both of his last starts, & unless he finds his command tonight, Houston should cash for us here tonight, & I am banking he will once again struggle to find the strike zone.
Wunderdog
New Orleans at Denver
Pick: First Half UNDER 99
I like this game to go UNDER in the first half. The combination of the Hornets resolve for game five, with the complacency of the Nuggets, will lead to a defensive first half here. New Orleans is 26-15 UNDER in the first half on the road this season. They are also 25-15 UNDER in the first half when the line is between 95 and 100. In addition, the Hornets are 20-10 UNDER in the first half this season when revenging a loss as they come out playing hard defense. They are also 16-6 UNDER the past two seasons coming off a game in which they scored 85 or less points. Finally, New Orleans is 13-5 UNDER this season in the first half when facing an opponent that averages 103+ points per game. I am going with the first-half UNDER here.