Game Time Sports Advisors
Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Sox coming off series vs NY, but we see no let-down here. We won't lay the high wood, instead we take the run line. Pavano has been awful going 1-3 with a 7.46 ERA in 5 starts this season. Masterson has been a gem at Fenway with a 2-0 record a sparkling 1.69 ERA. Beantown on fire, winners of 15 of 18 while Cleveland is just 5-10 on the road this season. Red Sox are 10-2 last 12, and 5-1 last 6 at home vs the Tribe. The dominance continues tonight.
Dwayne Bryant
DET (-105) vs CWS
The White Sox are at home where they were 7-2 against Detroit last season and Mark Buehrle is on the mound. Buerhle is 4-0 with a 3.30 ERA this season and he is 13-8 with a 2.96 ERA in 25 starts versus Detroit. And the ChiSox are only -115? Hmm.
The ChiSox have lost four straight and Armando Galarraga gave up just four hits in 6 1-3 innings of a 9-0 win over the White Sox on April 15 in his only previous start against them. I expect Galarraga (3-1, 3.07) to bounce back from his poor outing last time out.
Detroit is also 6-3 vs. lefty starters this season, batting .296 and with a .369 OBP.
I'll take Detroit and Galarraga over Chicago and Buehrle for a half-unit.
Wunderdog
Houston at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -10
The Lakers got a rude awakening in game one as they were beaten rather soundly by the Rockets. It was a massive upset as the Lakers were laying 9 points but lost by 8. The problem was that Kobe took 31 shots, and was off, and the rest of the starters took just 40 combined. When they got open looks they just weren't able to connect and Bryant himself was just 1-7 beyond the arc. I look for the Lakers to be "awake" in this game and for Kobe to get everyone involved early and get others going so they can knock down some shots. The Rockets played about as good as they could play, but that always looks to be the case when your opponent is struggling to shoot the ball. Credit can certainly be given to the Rocket defense, but even when the Lakers went to the line they hit just 63% with no one on them at all. It was simply an off-night for the Lakers who struggled to shake off the rust from their long layoff. The Rockets have not been a good team on the road and they have not been a good team off an ATS win as they have followed with an 11-24 ATS mark off of an ATS win. The Lakers are too good not to come out with their "A" game in this one and that game is more than capable of a 10+ point win. The Lakers get the win and cover here.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Rays/Yankees OVER 10
Like the over tonight with a pair of power hitting teams facing off in the new Coors Field. The Rays' Sonnanstine has an ERA of 9.20 on the road and A.J. Burnett has really struggled of late with an ERA of 7.36 over his last 3 starts. The Yanks are 17-8 over in all games this season and 14-5 over against right-handed starters this season with the average score totaling 12.3 runs in matchups against the righties. Tampa Bay is 18-5 over as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 3 seasons, with the average score totaling 12.6 runs in this situation. Take the Over.
LARRY NESS
Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Minnesota Twins
The Twins lost a one-game playoff 1-0 to the White Sox in Chicago last year, just missing the postseason. The Orioles finished 68-93 in 2008, the team's 11th consecutive sub-.500 season. The Twins have opened 13-14 in 2009 and after a 6-2 start, the Orioles have gone 4-13 to come into this game at 10-17. Kevin Slowey goes for the Twins and 6'9" lefty Mark Hendrickson for the Orioles. Slowey was 4-1 with a 4.72 in 13 appearances (11 starts) in 2007 but improved to 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA in 2008 (team was 15-12 in his 27 starts). He's opened 2009 at 4-0 through five starts (team is 4-1), despite a 5.17 ERA. He's gotten great run support (35 runs) but let me also note that his lone road start of 2009, was also his best one of the year. He beat Cleveland 7-1 on April 25, allowing eight hits and just one ER over eight innings (seven Ks and zero walks). Mark Hendrickson began his career back in Toronto in 2002 and Baltimore is his fifth major league team. He's opened 1-4 in five starts this year, allowing 35 hits in 23.1 innings with a 6.17 ERA. Hendrickson can't count on any bullpen help either, as the team's relievers own a 5.86 ERA, while allowing opponents to hit .302. Slowey has been 'blessed' in the early going of 2009 and against Hendrickson and the Orioles, his good fortune should continue.
LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
Now it seems strange to like an Over in a game started by Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays, but the entire Los Angeles Angels staff has been struggling, and even Halladay has been off his game a tad lately.
The Angels are starting Anthony Ortega, who has hardly made an impact in his first two Major League starts. Ortega has a 5.56 ERA and high 1.41 WHIP in those two starts, and he has yet to go more than 6.1 innings. The significance of that is that the Halos bullpen will probably be called on relatively early, and that unit is dead last in the majors with an ugly cumulative 7.44 pen ERA.
Halladay remains one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he has uncharacteristically allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts, including allowing five runs three starts back, and he was touched up for 10 hits by the Baltimore Orioles last start. It is also somewhat concerning that he has tossed 118 and 117 pitches in his last two starts, which may be a lot for this early in the season even for a workhorse like Halladay.
Besides, he does not even need to be that off if Ortega and the Los Angeles bullpen maintain their current forms.
Pick: Blue Jays/Angels Over 9
Dave Price
1 Unit on Phillies +1.5 +105
The Phillies are a gift at this price tonight and we won't hesitate to back them as they are an impressive 8-2 on the road this season and 5-1 against lefty starters. In fact, the Phillies are averaging 7.7 runs per game against southpaw starters this season while the Mets are scoring only 4.7 runs against righties. Philly is 6-0 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season, winning by an average score of 7.3 to 4.0 in these games. Bet the Phillies tonight.