SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Dallas (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) at (2) Denver (7-2 SU, 9-0 ATS)
The Mavericks, after barely keeping their season alive with a last-minute, come-from-behind victory in Game 4, once again try to stave off elimination when they head back to the Pepsi Center for Game 5 of this best-of-7 battle against the Nuggets.
Dirk Nowitzki poured in 44 points Monday, rallying Dallas from several double-digit deficits to claim a 119-117 victory as a 2½-point home chalk, cutting Denver’s series lead to 3-1. Nowitzki, who also had 13 rebounds, led six Mavs in double figures, with Josh Howard (21 points, 13 rebounds) and Jason Kidd (13 points, 10 rebounds, six assists) contributing double-doubles. Dallas also killed Denver on the boards (50-34).
The Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony racked up 41 points and 11 rebounds in defeat, and Chauncey Billups had 24 points and seven assists. Denver hit a respectable 32 of 44 free throws (72.7 percent), but Dallas had one less attempt and made 36 from the charity stripe (83.7 percent). The Game 3 setback ended the Nuggets’ five-game winning streak, but they’re still 21-5 SU (17-9 ATS) in their last 26 games.
Dallas’ victory Monday was its first in eight attempts against Denver this season, but by barely getting the spread-cover Monday, the Nuggets are now on an 11-1 ATS roll (10-2 SU) in this rivalry (7-1 ATS this season). Denver is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings at the Pepsi Center, including a 14-point victory in Game 1 and a 12-point triumph in Game 2. However, the road team has still covered in five of the last seven head-to-head battles and the ‘dog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11.
Overall this season, Denver is 38-8 SU (28-17-1 ATS) at home, including an ongoing 15-game winning streak at the Pepsi Center (10-5 ATS). Dallas is 20-26 SU (23-23 ATS) on the road, including 2-3 SU and ATS in the postseason.
Not only have the Nuggets cashed in every postseason game to this point, but they are on additional pointspread sprees of 16-5 overall, 16-4 against the Western Conference, 10-1 against the Southwest Division and 6-0 at home.
The Mavericks are on a 13-5 ATS run as a playoff pup, but their pointspread streaks turn negative from there, including 0-4 in this series, 2-5 on the highway and 8-20 against the Northwest Division.
The over for Dallas is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 8-2 in second-round playoff games and 4-1 when catching points. Likewise, the over is 9-4 in Denver’s last 13 home contests, with the Nuggets favored in all 13. Finally, following a 4-0 “under” run in this rivalry, the last three games in this series have eclipsed the posted price, with Monday’s game soaring over the 210-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (22-12) at Philadelphia (16-14)
The Phillies will turn to struggling veteran Jamie Moyer (3-2, 7.26), who has just one quality start all season, in the middle game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia took Tuesday’s opener 5-3, winning for just the second time in its last six games and improving to just 3-4 in its last seven at home.
Randy Wolf (1-1, 3.59 ERA) tries for his first victory in more than a month when he takes the mound for the suddenly slumping Dodgers. Since Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for violating baseball’s substance-abuse policy, the Dodgers have lost four of five, which comes on the heels of a seven-game winning streak.
Philadelphia has won 12 of its last 14 games against left-handed starters is also 13-4 in its last 17 contests against the N.L. West, including knocking off Los Angeles in five games in last year’s National League Championship Series. Charlie Manuel’s club is now on a 9-1 run against the Dodgers and is 23-8 in the last 31 meetings in Philadelphia. Also, including playoffs, the home team is 12-2 in the last 14 Dodgers-Phillies battles.
Los Angeles is still on hot streaks of 20-9 overall, 16-8 after a loss, 7-2 against southpaw starters and 18-4 in the second game of a series. However, including their struggles against Philadelphia, they’ve lost 13 of their last 15 games against N.L. East foes, and they’re just 2-5 in Wolf’s last seven road starts.
Wolf has given up just two earned runs over his last three starts spanning 17 1/3 innings (1.04 ERA), but has nothing to show for it but three no-decisions. In fact, he hasn’t factored in a decision in five consecutive starts, with the Dodgers losing three of his last four, including an 11-9 home loss to the Nationals on Thursday. The veteran lefty has not given up more than four runs in any game this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA in four road starts.
Wolf’s only career start against the Phillies – his former team – came last May when he was with the Padres. He allowed two runs in six innings, getting a no-decision as San Diego lost 3-2 in Philadelphia.
Moyer got bombed in his last two starts, both against the Mets, yielding 12 runs on 14 hits (five home runs) over eight total innings, with Philadelphia winning 6-5 at home and losing 7-5 on the road. The Phillies are still 4-1 in Moyer’s last five starts overall and 6-1 in his last seven at home, where the 46-year-old lefty is 1-1 despite a 7.02 ERA in three outings this season.
Moyer is 3-4 with a 4.80 ERA in 10 regular-season starts against the Dodgers, but that doesn’t include a 7-2 loss in last year’s NLCS when he got ripped for six runs in 1 1/3 innings in L.A. In his only other start against the Dodgers since he joined the Phillies, Moyer gave up 10 runs (all earned) in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-3 road loss in 2007.
The Dodgers are on a bunch of “over” streaks, including 5-1-1 as an underdog, 5-2 against the N.L. East, 4-0 on Wednesday and 4-0 when Wolf faces the N.L. East. Also, the over is 5-2 in Philadelphia’s last seven games against N.L. West foes and 5-0 in Moyer’s last five trips to the mound. Conversely, with last night’s game staying low, the under is now 11-3 in the last 14 Dodgers-Phillies clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (21-12) at L.A. Angels (16-15)
Off to a tremendous start to his season, Tim Wakefield (4-1, 2.92) takes the ball for the Red Sox as they continue a three-game set at Angel Stadium. Boston rallied from a 3-1 deficit on Tuesday and earned a 4-3 victory, improving to 4-1 in its last five and 6-2 in its last eight, including three straight road wins.
Rookie Matt Palmer (3-0, 3.06) goes for his fourth straight win in as many trips to the mound and the Angels, whose four-game winning streak (all at home) came to halt with Tuesday’s defeat. Although the bullpen blew last night’s game, Los Angeles has still held its last five opponents to a total of nine runs.
The Red Sox are on positive runs of 19-6 overall, 18-4 on grass, 11-1 against winning teams, 14-6 against the A.L. West and 5-0 with Wakefield pitching. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 4-1 in its last five as an underdog, but 1-5 in its last six on Wednesday.
These teams have now split four meetings this season. However, going back to 2008, Los Angeles is still on a 10-2 run against the Red Sox in the regular season, but Boston eliminated the Angels 3-1 in a best-of-5 opening-round playoff series last October.
Wakefield made his 2009 debut at Angel Stadium on April 10, giving up three runs on six hits over six innings, losing 6-3. Since then, though, the veteran knuckleballer is 4-0 with a 2.65 ERA in five starts, including a 13-3 home victory over Cleveland on Thursday in which he gave up two runs on four hits in six innings. Including last month’s loss to the Angels, Wakefield is 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four road efforts.
Wakefield is now 9-13 with a 4.79 ERA in 29 career games (24 starts) against the Angels, including 5-8 with a 4.78 ERA in Los Angeles. The Red Sox are 2-7 in Wakefield’s last nine starts against the Halos and 0-5 in his last five at Angel Stadium.
Palmer gave up one run on two hits and three walks over 5 1/3 innings in Friday’s home start against the Royals, picking up a 4-1 victory. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA in two home games, and tonight marks his first career appearance against Boston.
With Wakefield on the hill, the “over” is on streaks of 7-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 on the road, 23-9-1 when he’s favored, 5-2-1 when facing the Angeles and 7-3-1 when pitching in Anaheim.
The high-scoring Red Sox carry “over” trends of 19-8-2 overall, 10-4-1 on the road, 12-6-2 against right-handed starters, 5-1 versus the A.L. West and 16-5 on Wednesday. Also, Los Angeles is on “over” streaks of 4-2 against the A.L. East and 4-1 on Wednesday, but the Halos have stayed low in five straight games (all at home). Finally, the over is 7-4-1 in Boston’s last 12 games at Angel Stadium (2-1-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL
Dallas at Denver
The Nuggets look to close out the series and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 postseason games as a favorite between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Denver is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8 1/2).
Game 739-740: Dallas at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.155; Denver 131.251
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 9; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8 1/2); Under
MLB
Cincinnati at Arizona
The D-backs look to build on 5-2 record in their last 7 games as a home underdog between +110 and +150. Arizona is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Reyes) 15.103; NY Mets (Niese) 16.452
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-130); Under
Game 953-954: Washington at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martis) 15.612; San Francisco (Zito) 14.827
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+140); Under
Game 955-956: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.047; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 13.866
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Over
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 14.334; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.974
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under
Game 959-960: San Diego at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 13.024; Chicago Cubs (Lilly) 15.731
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); N/A
Game 961-962: Florida at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.143; Milwaukee (Looper) 15.563
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Under
Game 963-964: Houston at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Hampton) 15.128; Colorado (Marquis) 13.772
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); Over
Game 965-966: Cincinnati at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.021; Arizona (Augenstein) 15.322
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Over
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.406; Cleveland (Lee) 14.252
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+135); Over
Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.877; Toronto (Richmond) 15.676
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Under
Game 9271-972: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.380; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.300
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 11
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over
Game 973-974: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 15.443; Texas (McCarthy) 15.540
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Under
Game 975-976: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Willis) 15.884; Minnesota (Perkins) 14.702
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+150);
Game 977-978: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 16.277; Oakland (Outman) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Under
Game 979-980: Boston at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 17.053; LA Angels (Palmer) 15.376
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Over
NHL
Pittsburgh at Washington
The Caps look to close out the series and build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 games as a favorite between -110 and -150. Washington is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145).
Game 67-68: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.380; Washington 13.577
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145); Under
Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Craig's Free Plays are 2-0 the last two days and today we are going to keep the undefeated week going. Check out the records, trends, and winning free breakdown!
Records
Cincinnati Reds 19-14, 12-5 away (Cueto 3-1, 1.59ERA)
Arizona Diamondbacks 13-21, 9-14 home (Augenstein 0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Betting Trends
Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
Reds are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts.
Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
All the trends and handicapping point to the Cincinnati Reds in a romp today. The Reds have been winning with great pitching, solid defense, and timely hitting. On the road the Reds have won 3 in a row and today turn to there best early season pitcher Cueto. Cueto last year stuggled with control walking way too many batters. Not so this year he has only 11 walks in over 39 innings. ARIZONA have stuggled to score early in the season and today will really struggle against Cueto. Cueto will be almost unhittable today and the Reds will put up at least 4 runs to win going away. CIN 5 - ARI 1
Alex Smart
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals
It's the deciding game of this guelling conference semi-final with the winner moving forward. This series has swung one way, then another, and has witnessed endless action from start to finish with neither team taking a backward step.
What has been clear is that there is very little between these teams and dispite some outstanding shot stopping by the goaltenders, both sides have had trouble contianing the other. That is highlighted by the fact that at least five goals (twice) have been scored in each of the six games and besides game four, the remaining five games has seen the game winner come out on top by just one goal difference.
Some will be calling for a tight game here, but in reality these two teams don't play that way, especially against each other. When these two teams hook up the 'Over' is 10-2-1 the last thirteen. In the Nations Capital the 'Over' is 11-2-1. Finally, Washington is 21-5 'Over' after allowing 2+ goals in 3rd period last game.Pittsburgh is 12-2 Over after 2 straight contests where both teams scored 3 goals or more this season.
Play OVER
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Toronto w/Richmond over NY Yankees w/Pettite
The Blue Jays send Scott Richmond to the hill against Andy Pettite and the Pinstripes Wednesday night in Toronto. Pettite started the season with three straight win in his teams starts but has gone just 1-2 with a 6.64 ERA since. With the Blue Jays 5-1 with Richmond on the mound this season, look for Pettite to dip to 1-5 in his last six road starts in May here this evening.
JIM FEIST
SEATTLE MARINERS / TEXAS RANGERS
Take: TEXAS RANGERS
It's a good week for Texas, with a day off Monday, plus some good news on the injury front. Josh Hamilton is ready to rejoin the Texas Rangers. The All-Star center fielder said his left rib cage muscles "felt good" after his final game Monday on a rehabilitation assignment. He is off the disabled list for this three-game series against Seattle. The Mariners are a long way from home, and 34-year old starter Jarrod Washburn is much better at home than on the road. Texas is a tough pitcher's park, and the team is 0-3 in Washburn's last three starts. Play the Rangers.
Tom Freese
Kansas City at Oakland
Kansas City is 5-0 in the last 5 starts made by Brian Bannister and they are 6-1 their last 7 games vs. lefty starters. The Royals are 19-7 their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Oakland is 17-35 their last 52 games vs. winning teams and they are 13-27 in Game 2 of a series. The Athletics are 1-7 their last 8 games as favorites and they are 1-6 their last 7 home games vs. the Royals. PLAY ON KANSAS CITY (Bannister vs. Outman)
Jimmy The Moose
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
New York lost again last night, their 7th loss in 9 games. In their last 6 games as an underdog they are 1-5. In their last 11 divisional games New York is 2-9. The Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. a right-handed starter. The Jays are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. At home this season Toronto is 12-4. Richmond takes the mound tonight with a 4-1 record and Toronto has won 5 of his 6 starts this season. Look for the red-hot Jays to win another one. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays -.
SPORTSPIC
Cincinnati at Arizona
Play: Cincinnati
The Arizona Diamond Backs and Cincinnati Reds complete a three game set that has the markings of Arizona being Snake-Bitten rather than Cincinnati.
An inability to make consistent contact Diamond Backs sport the lowest batting average (.235) in the Majors and are near the bottom in runs scored (126).
Manufacturing just 2.2 run/game D'Backs bat-to-ball coordination isn't about to improve swinging away at Reds Johnny Cueto (3-1, 1.59 ERA) offerings. The righty off four consecutive quality starts allowing just two runs over 29 innings of work is sure to hand-cuff the desert snakes.
Consider a 'Play-Against' the National League West basement dwellers knowing Reds were 2-0 last season vs D'Backs w/Cueto and that D'Backs are 3-8 (-$663) in the host roll crossing just 2.8 over home plate facing a quality starter (=>6 Inn).
MTi Sports
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are 9-0 when Ted Lilly starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits on the road in his last start and the Padres are 0-6 THIS season when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start. With the Cubs a relentless and reliable 14-0 as a favorite of more than 140 vs a team that has lost their last four games, the price is the way to go and the run-line should be considered as well.
Red Dog Sports
New York at Toronto
Play Toronto
The Blue Jays beat the Yankees last night and are playing well with one of the best home records in the major leagues. The Yankees are now 9-10 on the road.Andy Pettitte has plenty of experience but his ERA is 6.62 in his last 3 and the team is 1-2 while Richmond starts for Toronto and his ERA is 3.27 in the same time frame and the team is 2-1. Look for the Blue Jays to win again on Wednesday at a good price.
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego +145 at CHICAGO CUBS
Today's FREE winner for you comes from the diamond as we go with the Padres in Chicago taking on the Cubs.
There's some good value taking the Padres tonight in Chicago and we'll gladly grab the plus-money with San Diego and righty Chris Young (2-1, 4.76 ERA) against the Cubs.
Young gave up three runs on five hits in six innings of a 4-3, 10-inning loss to the D'Backs on Thursday and he is 1-0 with a 2.28 ERA in four starts in his career against the Cubs.
The Padres fell to the Cubs 6-2 on Tuesday but they got a two-run homer from Adrian Gonzalez who has homered in each of his last two games and is red-hot this season.
For Chicago, it's Ted Lilly (4-2, 3.11 ERA) on the mound today at Wrigley, where he is 18-11 with a 3.79 ERA in 37 career starts in front of the home fans. If Lilly gives up four runs to the Padres tonight, he's going to lose, because Young is going to deliver a gem.
Play the Padres tonight as they pull off a 6-3 victory.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
DAVE COKIN
LOS ANGELES DODGERS / PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Take LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Dodgers are in a slump since the Manny incident, but I like their chances of getting back in the win column tonight. Randy Wolf is is vastly superior form compared to Jamie Moyer, who might actually be showing his age for the Phillies. Moyer is getting pasted and there's nothing fluky about the hits. He's getting tattooed and until Moyer finds his rhythm he's fade material. I'll side with Wolf and the Dodgers to even the series with the win tonight.
Vernon Croy
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Cubs have the superior pitcher on the mound at Wrigley tonight. Ted Lilly (4-2, 3.11 ERA) has pitched solid at home this season with an ERA of just 0.42 while Chris Young (2-1, 4.76 ERA) has struggled on the road with an ERA of 6.97 over 4 starts. Young has had trouble finding the strike zone walking 13 batters over just 20.7 innings on the road this season and I look for the Cubs to hit him hard tonight. The Cubs are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite and they are 4-1 in Lilly's last 5 starts as a favorite of -150 to -200. The Padres are just 4-17 in their last 21 games and Ted Lilly is 4-1 with an ERA of just 1.96 in 5 career starts against the Padres so take the Cubs at a fair price as my MLB Play for Wednesday night.
LT Profits
Denver Nuggets -8.5
Well, we predicted that the Denver Nuggets would beat the Dallas Mavericks in five games before this series started, and we look for that forecast to come to its fruition tonight in emphatic fashion.
The Nuggets are playing the best basketball in the NBA since early March, and they have been downright invincible here at home. In fact, the Nuggets are 21-5 straight up since March 10, including 15-0 SU at home where they won those games by an incredible average of +15.3 points.
This amazing home run has continued in the playoffs, where they won their three home games vs. the New Orleans Hornets by 29, 15 and 21 points respectively, and they won the first two games of this Dallas series here by 14 and 12 points. Furthermore, Game 2 was not a 12-point game in reality as the Mavericks cut into a huge deficit in garbage time.
Dallas took advantage of an aging San Antonio Spurs team without probably the best sixth man in the NBA in Manu Ginobili in the first round, but they seem outclassed in this series, especially in the games in Denver. Yes, they overcame a 14-point deficit in Game 4 to avoid getting swept, but that was at home and they will not be able to come back if they face a similar deficit tonight, which seems inevitable given the recent Denver home play.
Look for the Nuggets to wrap up this series with a big double-digit victory.
Pick: Nuggets -8.5