John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington Nationals as they host the Pirates. As the saying goes no team can lose them all and the Nats are a poor team, but in a good spot to get a much needed win. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-9 making 27.5 units since 2003. Play on home teams in the month of May that are good hitting teams batting >=.275 facing a good NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=3.70. Washington is a solid 15-4 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. Washington is ranked 5th in MLB and 3rd in the NL in team batting average and that makes them dangerous anytime they take the field. Pirates rank 5th in team batting average. The Washington pitching staff has been the problem all season, but in this game the AiS shows favorable performances for starter Lannan and the bullpen. AiS shows an 85% probability that Lannan will complete 6 or more innings of work. Should that occur the Nats have a 90% probability of winning the game. Take the Nats.
LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays +105
Brett Cecil has been a godsend since entering the starting rotation for the first place Toronto Blue Jays, and he makes the Jays the call tonight vs. the Boston Red Sox and the struggling Brad Penny.
Cecil has now made his first three Major League starts this season, and he is a perfect three for three in Quality Starts while posting a 1.80 ERA and an excellent 1.05 WHIP. The youngster has pitched so well that there is now talk of keeping him in the rotation even after Jesse Litsch comes off of the Disabled List. The young southpaw should continue to be tough his first time through the American League vs. teams that have not seen him, such as the Red Sox.
Meanwhile, Penny is not enjoying his first year in the American League despite his extremely deceptive 3-1 record. Penny has received loads of run support, as he has actually not pitched well at all, with a 6.69 ERA and a fat 1.68 WHIP in seven starts. He does not figure to get his usual support tonight the way that Cecil has been pitching, which should make for a long night for Boston supporters.
The Red Sox took the series opener 2-1 behind Tim Wakefield here last night, but look for Toronto to even up the series tonight.
Pick: Blue Jays +105
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Wednesday's free selection: Cubs/Cardinals over 8 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
264 - 172 run 60 % 9-2 last 11
WED Pitt Pirates
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(918) Detroit Tigers -$165
(Listing Verlander and Harrison)
The Tigers have been good to us as I rode them for three straight free
winners before releasing a 3 STAR winner yesterday for my paid clients.
I will call on the Tigers for another free winner today as they send Justin
Verlander to the mound who is 4-1 lifetime against Texas and 2-0 with
a 1.21 ERA with 35 strikeouts in his last three starts.
Lay the juice with Detroit.
2009 Free Selections Record 74-62 (54.4%)
8)
Vernon Croy
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
We are getting solid value here Wednesday night with the Phillies who are 13-4 on the road this season. Jamie Moyer (3-3, 8.15) has struggled this season but I look for him to bounce back with a strong outing tonight against the Reds who are with-out Joey Votto who is leading the Reds batting (.366). The Phillies are 6-1 in Moyer's last 7 starts against an NL Central team and they are 12-3 in Moyer's last 15 road starts when the posted total is 9.0 to 10.5 points. The Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 road games as a dog of +110 to +150 and they are 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a right hand starter. Aaron Harang (3-4, 3.44 ERA) has struggled against the Phillies in the past with an ERA of 6.30 over 7 career starts against the Reds. Harang got lit up in his last outing against a bad Padres line-up that is hitting just .234 as a team this season. Take the Phillies at a nice price as my MLB Free Play for Wednesday night.
Alex Smart
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Under 8.5
The Chicago Cubs visit their long time rivals the St.Louis Cardinals this evening in a game that sets up well for staying below the number as two quality starting pitchers go to the hill.The Cardinals ace and and former Cy Young award winner Chris Carpenter makes his return from an injury to the Cardinals' rotation on Wednesday. He threw threw 120 pitches in a bullpen session this past Friday, and looked very stable in his warm up, which gave the coaching staff enough confidence to start him tonight. Carpenter was outstanding in both of his starts before he was sidelined by a left oblique strain. Carpenter is 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA in five home starts versus the Cubs. Meanwhile, Ryan Dempster (3-2, 4.65 ERA) has thrown six or more innings in each of his starts this year, and recorded four quality starts. In two outings vs the Cardinals this month, he has pitched well, allowing 11 hits in 12 innings, both games resulted in no decisions. I expect more steady work from the Canuck righty.These teams have a recent history of playing low scoring, tightly contested games, and nothing will change this evening.
Final notes & Key Trends: These teams have gone under in 15 of 19 games in this series. Under is 10-3 in Carpenters last 13 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis. Under is 5-0-1 in umpire Brian Gormans last 6 games behind home plate. ..... Play UNDER
Tom Freese B
Chicago at St. Louis
Chicago is 8-3 their last 11 games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60% and they are 5-2 their last 7 games as righty starters. The Cubs are 4-1 vs. an opponent who allowed 2 or less runs in their last game and starter Ryan Dempster has gone at least 6 innings in all 8 of his starts this year. St. Louis is 3-8 their last 11 games vs. righty starters and they are 2-7 their last 9 games vs. winning teams. Starting pitcher Chris Carpenter is making his first start this year and will be on a pitch count. PLAY ON CHICAGO - (Dempster vs. Carpenter)
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Astros +100
The Brewers have won 7 in a row, but I have the winning streak ending tonight in Houston. The Astros are playing pretty good ball themselves, winners of 6 of their last 9, and they send one of the best home pitchers in baseball to the hill tonight. Rodriguez has an ERA of 1.90 on the season and an even smaller ERA of 0.67 at home. The Astros are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts and the Brewers are only 5-16 in their last 21 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. History is on Houston's side tonight also, as plays against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after 4 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 77-32 the last 5 seasons. Plus, Milwaukee is just 9-28 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 3 seasons. If Houston gives Rodriguez just a little run support tonight they should win this one. Bet the 'stros.
Jeff Benton
Pittsburgh +120 at WASHINGTON
We finally got back on track with the free plays Tuesday, nailing the Brewers over the Astros. For Wednesday’s free play, we’ll back the Pirates at a nice plus price in the nation’s capital.
To put it bluntly, the Nationals are a mess. Not only have they lost the first two games of this series against the Pirates, but they’ve dropped six in a row and nine of their last 10, and each of those nine defeats have been multiple-run losses. What’s more, look at the run totals Washington has given up in its nine losses: 10, 11, 9, 10, 8, 7, 8, 12 and 8. The Nationals’ team ERA over the last 10 games is a minor-league-like 8.11, including a 10.06 bullpen ERA!
Meanwhile, the Pirates have won four in a row and six of their last eight, and they’ve been busting out the bats during this stretch, tallying a total of 50 runs during those six wins, including 20 runs the last two nights in Washington. As a team, Pittsburgh is batting .293 over its last 10 contests.
Tonight, the Pirates have lefty Paul Maholm on the hill, and Maholm is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA on the season. In his most recent outing, Maholm threw seven shutout innings but didn’t factor in the decision as Pittsburgh couldn’t produce any offense in a 3-1 loss. Uh, I doubt the Bucs will have trouble pushing across runs in this game. Yes, they’re facing arguably the Nats’ best pitcher in southpaw John Lannan, but Lannan hasn’t made it past six innings in any of his last four starts … meaning Washington’s pathetic bullpen is going to come into play tonight, likely for four innings.
The Nats have lost 23 of Lannan’s last 30 starts overall and four of his last five at home, and Lannan is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against the Pirates. Play the road team in this one.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Sports Gambling Hotline
Pittsburgh +125 at WASHINGTON
Another comp play winner last night with the Nuggets-Lakers UNDER the total.
That makes it 5 straight comp play winners!
For Wednesday, go with Pittsburgh to dump Washington once again.
The Pirates are rolling hot right now, winners of 6 of their last 8, including 4 in a row after last night's 8-5 extra-inning victory over the Nats.
Washington's losing streak is at 6 in a row, and they have also dropped 9 of their last 10.
Paul Maholm just threw 7 scoreless innings at Colorado in a no-decsion, so he should be plenty confident when he is on the hill tonight, as he looks to build upon his last start.
John Lannan went 0-2 in his 2 starts against Pittsburgh last season, and we will play against him again tonight, as the Bucs continue their winning ways, while the Nationals absorb another setback.
Play on Pittsburgh.
1♦ PITTSBURGH
Michael Cannon
Milwaukee at HOUSTON
Take the under tonight in the Brewers-Astros game at Minute Maid Park.
Great pitching matchup tonight that should keep the score low.
Yovani Gallardo will get the nod for the Brewers and all he’s had is success against Houston in his career. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in three career starts against the Astros, including two on the road.
Houston will counter with Wandy Rodriguez, who is just plain nasty when he pitches at home. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 0.67 ERA in four home starts and 4-2 with a 0.87 ERA in his last eight starts at Minute Maid Park.
With pitching numbers like those it could be a case of the first team to plate a run will win.
Take the under as your Wednesday free winner.
3♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
Detroit at TEXAS +150
Yesterday the Tigers got it done with one MLB betting system; today we take the Rangers with another.
I know it seems ludicrous to side against Justin Verlander, who is 2-0 at home with a paltry 0.95 ERA this season, but I like the way Matt Harrison has been pitching this month. Quite honestly, he could vie for AL Pitcher of the Month if he keeps going on the same path he’s been on. He rolls in off two straight complete game wins, and is 3-0 in May with a 0.78 ERA.
Dating back to last month, the second-year southpaw has posted a 1.80 ERA while winning four consecutive starts. His 22-inning scoreless streak ended when he allowed two runs in the fourth inning of a 3-2 victory over Seattle last Thursday.
Though Detroit won last night, the Rangers have still won seven of eight.
1♦ RANGERS
Red Dog Sports
Los Angeles at Seattle
Play: Over 9
Ervin Santana has an ERA of 5.40 and Jakabaukus has an ERA of 9.83 in his last 3 starts. There has been 12 overs and 4 unders in the last 16 meetings in Seattle. Play the over!
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take whatever coin you can get with the Blue Jays at Fenway.
Let me begin by saying that I do not believe Cito Gaston's boys will keep up this first place pace when all is said and done but the way Toronto has been playing and the way this kid Brett Cecil has been pitching I can't help but believe the roll will at least continue for one more day.
The Red Sox are the superior overall team but Brad Penny has had some issues over the last year and a half and with the injuries to the Sox including the likes of Dustin Pedroia and the DL'd Kevin Youkilis and the horrible play of David Ortiz Boston should not exactly just bash the ball all over the park today against the lefty.
I do wish that I was getting a bigger takeback as Terry Francona's boys are still very good and therefore this game is far from a mortal lock or anything such as that but why not roll with the good thing here.
Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Aaron Hill are real quality ballplayers and will take their hacks for sure against the scuffling Penny. Long gone are the All-Star starting days for the former Marlin and Dodger righthander and right now it's a struggle for Penny to do anything right at all. Just surviving five innings is a challenge for him.
I definitely expect Cecil's ERA to go up a bit today as he can't be this good and this is a tough spot but in the end the Jays plus a little money tonight is worth the risk!
Jake Timlin
Bonus action on the diamond I love for Milwaukee to make it 8 straight wins tonight.
Build on their road win against the Astros last night I look for Milwaukee behind Gallardo to continue their amazing run the standing thanks to an easy win in Houston. You see for Milwaukee not only are the good right now, but they have been good on the road this season going 13-7 all thanks in part to Gallardo who is 4-1 overall in 7 starts this season and only getting better due to his 2.25 ERA in his last three starts.
Meanwhile, for Houston despite Rodriguez’s solid start to the season there is no looking past the fact that Houston has lost 7 of his last 8 starts against the Brewers. Even worst news for the Astros is they have struggled at home turning in a losing record of 8-11 so far this season.
Well given how well Milwaukee is playing right now mixed in with their recent success this year against Houston I expect for the Brewers to have no problems winning their 8th straight game.
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
Karl Garrett
Orlando at CLEVELAND -9
In the NBA tonight, the G-Man will go UNDER the total in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Orlando comes into the Quicken Loans Arena having played UNDER the total in the last 4 games of the Boston series, and the Magic has also been LOW in 6 of their last 8 road games, and 7 of their 9 games when installed as an UNDERDOG.
Cleveland also comes into this game with some serious UNDER trends on their side, as their last pair of postseason games, and 6 of their last 7 in the playoffs have ALL stayed UNDER the total.
At the Quicken Loans Arena, the Cavs are on a 14-5-1 UNDER run their last 20 games.
Finally, 4 of the last 5 series meetings have played LOW between the teams.
Take the UNDER in Orlando-Cleveland tonight.
3♦ UNDER