Scott Rickenbach
Kansas City vs Cleveland
Play Under 9.5
We cashed in right here yesterday on an under where everyone was looking for an over and it doesn't get much easier than that under in Detroit yesterday as Dontrelle Willis threw a one-hitter. Today's it's the same concept. Everyone is looking for an over in Kansas City and this line has gone from a 9 to a 9.5 which means even more value for a play on the under in this spot. Yesterday's game got under the total thanks to a bullpen collapse from the Indians which has truly not been that uncommon for them. However, the key today is that we expect both starters to perform so well that the pens here (K.C. has a decent one by the way) are not going to have much impact on this one!
Fausto Carmona gets the ball for the Indians and he's showing bettors a 5.70 ERA but note his .255 BAA. If he controls his walks (he's actually had better command on the road than at home) he can absolutely contain this Royals offense. He's allowed just 21 hits in 25.1 innings spanning his last four starts and he's 4-2 with a respectable 4.58 ERA against the Royals in his career. Also, in his career, May has been Carmona's best month as he's posted a 6-2 mark with a 3.12 ERA! He will be opposed by the Royals Gil Meche tonight and we are also expecting a solid start from him in this one! In his last start against Cleveland he gave up three earned runs but note that Meche allowed just five hits in 7.1 innings of work and he struck out 7 while issuing no walks! Also, his 4.98 ERA against the Indians last season was somewhat deceiving as he held them to a .262 batting average while compiling a solid 1.19 WHIP! Don't be surprised when this one turns into a pitchers duel! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Kansas City on Wednesday.
Rocketman
San Francisco @ San Diego
Play: San Francisco
San Francisco is 19-19 on the season while San Diego comes in with a 17-22 record this year. San Diego is 0-6 this year when playing on Wednesday. San Diego is scoring only 3.8 runs per game overall, 3.7 runs per game at home and 3.3 runs per game against left handed starters this year. San Diego has a poor .218 team batting average at home and against left handed starters this season. Chad Gaudin is 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA overall this year and is 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!
MTI Sports
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Yankees are 20-4 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series and 15-1 at home after a 5+ run win and it is not the first game of a series. Baltimore is 6-24 as a road dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings. Why aren?t the Yankees -180 here. Take NY.
Larry Ness
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox
I rode Mark Buehrle and the White Sox to a fairly easy win last night, as the White Sox snapped a five-game losing streak, while extending the Twins' losing streak to five games. The Twins have now lost eight in a row away from home for the first time since a nine-game slide back in 2003 and at 4-13, own the majors worst road record. Chicago's John Danks was a big surprise in 2008, his second major league season. He went 12-9 with a 3.32 ERA, with the White Sox going 19-15 in all of his starts (including the postseason). While Danks is 3-3 with a 5.61 ERA in eight career starts against the Twins, there is one outing in particular in which few White Sox fans will ever forget. Danks started and won last year's tie-breaker against the Twins, which decided the AL Central champion on Sept 30. He allowed two hits in eight innings of a 1-0 win over Minnesota, which sent Chicago to the postseason for the first time since winning the World Series in 2005. Things have not gone as smoothly this year for Danks, as he's 2-3 with a 4.82 ERA in seven starts (team is 3-4). However, the good news is that the Twins are in a funk plus are in a terrible situation. Minnesota was an 'ugly' 5-15 vs left-handed starters in road night games last year and so far in 2009, are 0-5 vs lefties on the road in all situations (0-3 at night), averaging a mere 2.4 RPG. Minnesota will start a lefty as well, in Francisco Liriano (2-4, 5.21 ERA). After an 0-4 start to the 2009 season, Liriano will be looking for a third straight win. He's 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA over his last four starts (team is 3-1) but he's 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA in his only two career starts vs Minnesota. That includes an April 11 start this year (at Chicago), in which he allowed six hits and five ERs in just 4.2 innings of an 8-0 loss. Take Chicago.
Gregg Price
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
This team is so focused and on a mission. They have dominated every single game they have played so far. Magic are coming off a huge road win and will not be able to duplicate that effort. Cavs will be too much for the Magic. They will win again by double digits.
Wunderdog
Orlando at Cleveland
Pick: First Half UNDER 93
Orlando games during the regular season averaged 99 first-half points. During the playoffs that has dropped to 92 and during the last five games, it's down to 89! Sense a trend? They now face the best defensive team in the league who has also seen a drop from their already crazy-low regular season averages. Cleveland games have dropped from 94.3 first-half points to 89 during the playoffs. They have held their first two opponents to just 39.9 in the first-half. Orlando is a top offensive team but they are going to struggle mightily vs. the Cavs defense. Heck, Philly and Boston (without Garnett), neither of which are great defensive teams, were able to shave 4 points per game off Orlando's offensive average and make them look like an average offensive team. What will Cleveland be able to do? This is a low first-half total but no worries. The Cavs are 23-14 UNDER in the first-half this season when the total is between 90 and 95. Orlando is 12-4 UNDER this season in the first-half when facing a team at .700 or better. The defensive intensity (and Cleveland's offensive rustiness) will be highest at the beginning of the game. I like this one to play in the 80s in the first-half.
Nite Owl Sports
Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: 2 units Orlando Magic +9
We sure were impressed with the way Magic got it done in their game 7 at Boston, with clutch performances all around, but especially by Turk, the two guards (Rafer Alston and rookie Courtney Lee, who stuck to dangerous boston 3 point ace Eddie House like glue), and the relatively unknown Mickel Pietrus, who had played his previous pro ball in Europe. And not only does that "hump win" in game 7 give Magic loads of confidence, but they are not "in awe" of this Cavs team, haveing beaten them 2 out of 3 TY and easily covered in their one game TY at the "Q," with a tight late season (March) 4 point loss as +8.5 point dogs. And that is just one of the nine ATS covers that Magic have had against Cavs in last ten of this series, incl 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU last five in Cleve. And in that covering 4 point loss at Cleve, Magic hung close, thanks to very strong guard play, with 23 points by Rafer Alston on 8-16 shoooting (incl 3-7 treys) and 19 by Lee, on 9-13, which enabled them to "survive" (ATS) Rashard Lewis having one of the worst games of his career (just 6 points on dreadful 3-15 shooting, incl 0-8 treys). And the last time these two played, in orlando in april, Magic absolutely smashed Cavs (by 29), despite Cavs playing with a basically injury-complimentary line-up (missing only point guard Delonte West), with Dwight Howard victorious the "battle of the Bigs" over Cavs' "Iggy" Ilgauskas, with 20 points and 11 boards compared to 10/7 by the big Russian. But we've been handicapping the NBA playoffs long enough not to get too carried away by one team's apparent regular season dominance over the other, especially when the two opponents have played each other only a couple of times (3 in this case) in reg season.
So as we typically do, we looked at both teams' performance in a number of "representative games" (7 Cavs games as home faves of 4-10 points vs playoff teams and 7 Magic games as road dogs, also only vs playoff teams). And based on the results of that survey, Magic appear to have the edge here, getting 8-9 points, as they were 5-2 ATS in their 7 games, with average MOL of just one, while Cavs were a decent 4-3 ATS with average MOV of 10, which combines and averages to a 7-6 ATS edge for Magic (counting Magic ATS cover in Cleve just once, not twice), and a projected Magic ATS cover with a loss of 5.5 points, which we believe is enough support for this two unit pick on Magic at +9>.
But what about Cavs' 7-0-1 ATS record in their first 8 playoff games, incl 4-0 ATS in their four HGs? We believe those numbers, compiled against teams (Detroit and Atlanta) vastly inferior to Magic which didn't match up with Cavs nearly as well as Magic does, not only are basically irrelevant, but also that Cavs not having had a close game against a good team in a long time could hurt them in this one. While we are somewhat concerned about Cavs' strong 7-2 ATS home record LY and year before in East Conf semis and finals, incl 3-0 SU and ATS LY at home vs the defending World Champs (Boston), none of that good home playoff record was compiled against this Magic team.
So we expect a close, competitive game one between these two, close enough for a two unit pick on Magic at +9. We also expect a close, competitive series, and believe the current series prices of Cavs - 700 and Magic +550 are ridiculously inflated, making it tempting to take a small "pop" at Magic (to win the series) with those generous odds.