SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (10-4 SU, 13-1 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS)
With their best-of-7 Western Conference Finals series tied at 2-2, the Lakers and Nuggets return to Staples Center for the pivotal Game 5, with the winner moving to the brink of reaching the NBA Finals.
Denver led for all but 74 seconds Monday and turned Game 4 into a rout over the final few minutes, posting a 120-101 victory as a 4½-point home chalk. Carmelo Anthony (15 points, five assists) was dealing with illness and a bum leg and went just 3 of 16 from the field, but he hit 9 of 11 from the foul line, including several key fourth-quarter free throws. Along with Anthony, Chauncey Billups and J.R. Smith led seven players in double figures with 24 points apiece, while Kenyon Martin (13 points, 15 rebounds) and Nene (14 points, 13 rebounds) each notched a double-double.
Kobe Bryant scored 34 points to pace Los Angeles, and Pau Gasol added 21 points and 10 boards, but the Lakers got killed on the glass 58-40, including 20-9 on the offensive end. L.A. also hit just 24 of its 35 free throws, while Denver went to the charity stripe 49 times and made 37. The Game 4 result marked the first time in this series that the favorite won and covered and the first time that the favorite cashed.
Despite losing two of the last three in this series, Los Angeles is still 12-2 SU in its last 14 playoff games against Denver. The Lakers are 5-3 SU against the Nuggets this season, though the two teams have split the cash, and Los Angeles is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 clashes in this rivalry and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Hollywood.
Los Angeles is 43-7 SU (24-26 ATS) at home this season, including 7-2 (4-5 ATS) in the postseason. Denver is 24-23 SU (27-20 ATS) on the highway, including 3-3 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.
The Lakers are on ATS upswings of 6-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 after a non-cover, but the pointspread trends turn downward from there, including 2-8 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points (0-2 in this series), 1-4 after one day off, 1-4 against the Northwest Division and 2-8 after scoring 100 or more points.
The Nuggets are on a 24-7 SU tear dating to the regular season, and along with their 13-1 ATS playoff mark, they sport positive pointspread streaks of 23-7 overall, 8-2 against the Pacific Division, 22-5 against the West and a perfect 6-0 on the road (all in the playoffs, all as an underdog). That said, Denver is on ATS skids of 17-35-1 as a road pup of 5 to 10½ points and 3-7 as a playoff pup of the same price.
Denver and L.A. combined for 78 fourth-quarter points in Game 4 Monday to send the contest soaring over the posted total after the first three games in this series stayed low. The under is still 9-2 in the last 11 clashes between these squads, including 4-1 in the last five in Los Angeles.
For Los Angeles, the under has hit in seven of its last eight and is on addition surges of 11-3 overall, 8-1 in the conference finals and 6-0 as a playoff chalk. Likewise, for Denver, the under is on tears of 9-3 on the highway, 13-4 with the Nuggets an underdog and 20-6 when catching points in the playoffs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (26-19) at Texas (26-18)
Derek Holland (1-1, 4.82 ERA) makes his second career major-league start when the southpaw leads Texas against A.J. Burnett (2-2, 5.28) and the Yankees in the rubber match of a three-game series from Rangers Ballpark.
After waiting out a 2½-hour rain delay Tuesday night, the Rangers took the field and pounded New York 7-3 after getting clobbered in Monday’s series opener, 11-1. Despite last night’s result, the Yankees are still 22-8 in their last 30 games against the Rangers and 22-9 in their last 31 games in Texas.
New York is still on upticks of 11-3 overall, 10-3 as a favorite, 7-3 on the highway, 5-1 against lefty starters, 5-2 versus the A.L. West, 44-19 in the third game of a series and 55-21 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Texas, which had an eight-game home winning streak snapped with Monday’s loss, remains on positive streaks of 17-6 overall, 9-1 at home, 12-4 against right-handed starters, 6-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-2 on Wednesday. However, the Rangers have dropped 17 of their last 26 against A.L. East foes.
Holland got a no-decision in his first career start Friday at Houston, giving up three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings, with the Rangers eventually pulling out a 6-5 victory. The left-hander’s two decisions have come in relief at home, where he’s 1-1 with a 10.13 ERA, surrendering six runs in 5 2/3 innings.
Burnett is coming off Friday’s 7-3 home loss to the Phillies as he surrendered five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) in six innings. Burnett hasn’t posted a victory since April 14 at Tampa Bay, and the Yankees have lost four of his last six contests, including a pair of road setbacks. For the season, Burnett is 2-1 with a 5.88 ERA in four starts on the highway.
Burnett has made six lifetime appearances against Texas (five starts), going 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA).
The over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last six against teams from the A.L. West, and the over is 4-1 in their last five Wednesday contests. On the flip side, Burnett’s last four starts have stayed under the total, and the Rangers are riding “under” streaks of 22-9 overall (8-2 last 10), 9-4 at home, 8-0 as an underdog, 9-2 against right-handed starters and 6-0 in the third game of a series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (27-19) at Minnesota (23-24)
The Red Sox trot out Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-2, 10.32) as they wrap up a three-game series at the Metrodome against the Twins and Kevin Slowey (6-1, 4.23).
Minnesota used a five-run fifth inning to top Boston 5-2 on Tuesday and end a six-game losing skid to the Red Sox. The Twins are now 12-5 in their last 17 meetings with Boston in the Metrodome, and the host is on an 11-3 roll in this rivalry.
The BoSox had a modest two-game win streak snapped last night and they’ve now split their last 12 games. On the bright side, they’re on runs of 5-2 on Wednesday and 46-19 against the A.L. Central, but Terry Francona’s squad has still dropped 26 of its last 37 games on artificial turf. Minnesota is still on runs of 5-1 overall, 52-22 at home, 9-1 as a favorite and 36-16 against winning teams. However, the Twins have lost five of their last seven on Wednesday and 35 of their last 52 against A.L. East opponents.
After a five-week stint on the disabled list because of arm fatigue, Matsuzaka returned to a big-league mound Friday and lasted just five innings, giving up four runs on five hits and two walks in a 5-3 home loss to the Mets. The right-hander has surrendered 13 runs in 11 1/3 innings of work this year, with Boston losing all three of his starts. That includes a 6-5 setback at Oakland in Matsuzaka’s only road outing of 2009.
Despite Friday’s loss to the Mets, with Dice-K on the hill, Boston is still on runs of 28-9 overall, 14-3 on the highway, 10-1 versus the A.L. Central, 4-0 on artificial turf and 3-0 against Minnesota. In fact, Matsuzaka has been brilliant in three career starts versus the Twins, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA (four earned runs allowed in 22 1/3 innings).
Slowey has delivered three consecutive quality starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA, including Friday’s 11-3 home rout of the Brewers in which the right-hander yielded all three runs (two earned) in 7 1/3 innings. Slowey has permitted two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven trips to the mound, and he’s 5-0 with a 4.91 ERA in six home efforts in 2009.
The Twins have come out on top in 13 of Slowey’s last 16 home starts, and they’re 5-2 in his last seven outings overall and 5-1 in his last six Wednesday contests. However, in his lone career start against the Red Sox back in September 2007, Slowey got tagged for four runs in 5 2/3 innings, losing 5-2 at Fenway Park.
Last night’s game stayed under the total, ending a 5-0 “over” run in this rivalry, but the over is still 4-2 in the last six clashes in Minnesota. Additionally, the Twins are on “over” streaks of 10-5 at home, 21-7 on Wednesday and 6-1 when Slowey pitches at home. Boston’s “over” trends include 17-4 on Wednesday and 5-1 against the Central Division. However, the under is 8-3-1 in Boston’s last 12 overall and 5-1-1 in Matsuzaka’s last seven starts against A.L. Central clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
Play On: San Francisco w/Johnson Note: With Randy Johnson nearing the 300-win plateau it's best to focus on him at home where he has cashed in 12 of his last 20 team starts. At home with the Giants, Johnson has issued 4 walks against 35 strikeouts. In his five career home team starts against the Braves, Johnson is 3-2 with 5 walks and 51 strikeouts. In a dandy spot for Randy, look for the Giants to improve to 14-7 as a host in this series here tonight.
Play on: San Francisco
Frank Jordan
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
San Francisco has won the first two games of this series with solid pitching. Randy Johnson will look to keep that trend going as he takes the hill Wednesday night. Look for Randy Johnson to even up his record at 4-4 with a solid outing against a team he once pitched a perfect game against. Play San Francisco
Steve Merril
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers try for the sweep of the Rockies in Coors Field on Wednesday afternoon when they send Clayton Kershaw to the mound. Kershaw is 2-3 with a 4.32 ERA. On the road it becomes 1-3 with a 7.27 ERA including a 10-4 loss in Coors Field last month. In that one Kershaw gave up nine runs in 4.7 IP on eight hits. Overall, Kershaw is 1-3 with an ERA of 8.19. Last year Kershaw won 5-1 there and lost 10-1 as well. The Rockies hit .423 against him with Jeff Baker (4-8), Clint Barmes (3-5), Ryan Spilborghs (3-5), and Dexter Fowler (2-4) all doing the best. The Rockies send Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill where he is 3-5 with a 4.25 ERA. In his three starts at Colorado he has gone 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA and three Overs. Ubaldo is 4-2 with a 7.25 ERA against LA with eight Overs in eight starts, including losing 14-2 in Los Angeles and losing 6-5 in Colorado. In 8.3 innings pitched versus the Rockies, he has given up 13 runs and 15 hits. LA hits .311 against him with Russell Martin (7-16), Matt Kemp (6-14), Orlando Hudson (3-9), Rafael Furcal (3-8), and Casey Blake (2-4) all hitting him hard. The Dodgers have scored 35 runs in their last four games.
Cajun Sports
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
McAfee Coliseum will be the site of game three in this three-game set between the host Oakland A’s and the visiting Seattle Mariners. The A’s will be seeking a sweep of the series after taking game one on Monday 6 to 1 and then last night holding on to capture a 4 to 3 win. The Mariners have struggled on the road this season posting a record of 9-13 W/L (-3.4 units) and right-handed starters have been dominate against Seattle going 11-20 W/L for-10.6 units on the year. The M’s have been unable to plate any runs on the road averaging 3.8 runs per game while managing a batting average of only .258 with an OBP of .303 over that span. The bullpen has been a problem area as well with a WHIP of 1.705 which is a very costly number when trying to capture wins on the road. Seattle will send Erik Bedard to the bump but the M’s are only 3-5 W/L when he starts on the road this season and 3-6 W/L when he takes the hill versus the A’s. Oakland has improved of late posting a record of 4-3 W/L their last seven overall for a +2.0 profit. They are averaging 5.1 runs per game at home while holding opponents to only 3.7 per game. The A’s will hang their hopes for a sweep on Trevor Cahill with his 2-3 W/L record and home ERA of 3.90. The key for the A’s is their bullpen has been solid at McAfee posting an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.141, very good numbers when we know that the starters are only good for six innings or so in each trip to the bump. In Cahill’s last outing versus the M’s he pitched six innings giving up seven hits and was not involved in the decision although the A’s won the game 3 to 2. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects an A’s win today over the Mariners by 1.6 runs so we will back the host here as they go for and get the series sweep over a struggling Seattle team.
Graded Selection: 2* Oakland Athletics 4 Seattle Mariners 2
Jimmy The Moose
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
After losing last night with Oswalt on the mound the Astros have now lost 6 straight games. In their 10 divisional games the Astros are 2-8. In their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record they are 0-6. Houston has lost all 5 of Paulino's starts this season. The Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 divisional games and in their last 6 home games games vs. a team with a losing record. Arroyo's on the mound tonight and he's 6-3 on the season. The Reds are 13-4 in his last 17 starts as a home favorite. Play on the Reds -.
Craig Trapp
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Under 209½
Rough day yesterday as Craig was 0-3 but today we bounce back in a big way. Still Craig's top MLB plays are a hot 13-4 the last two weeks!! Today the total NBA winner will cover easily. Take a look at Craig's key trends and breakdown play!!
Betting Trends
-Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 playoff games as an underdog.
-Under is 9-3 in Nuggets last 12 road games.
-Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 home games.
-Under is 7-1 in Lakers last 8 overall.
-Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
When teams are 2-2 game 5 totals have trended to unders in the last two years. Also these two teams high powered offenses have not been huge scorers this year. In fact it has been the exact opposite as these two teams have struggled to score and today we will see more of the same. Both teams are in a must win and defense will be key in both teams game plan. This one will be way under, enjoy free NBA totals winner!
Jay Todd
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Over 9
The Tigers and Royals square off in an important game for both teams. The host team Kansas City sends Kyle Davies to the hill. Davies has struggled so far this season and faces a team built around power. Davies pitched 5.1 innings in his previous match up with the Tigers and gave up 7 runs. I expect him to get roughed up and would be surprised to see him in the game come the 6th inning.
Detroit sends young 20 year old Rick Porcello to the hill. Now Porcello has been dominant in the month of May, as he is a solid 4-0. However, he has not proven that he can be consistent yet. On the road in Kansas City could be a place to struggle. In his last stint against the Royals he gave up 5 runs in just 6 innings of work.
Like I mentioned before Porcello has not shown he is consistent enough to trust. He may get there soon, but now is not the time. With that being said I think Detroit will win this game and score more than enough runs to help go over this total, I am just not confident enough to wager on Detoirt.
Look for plenty of offense from Detroit and for the Royals to do their part to help go over this total. Play OVER 9 between Detoirt and Kansas City.
Jeff Benton
For Wednesday’s free play on the diamond, we’ll back the Twins in their series finale against the Red Sox.
Minnesota evened this three-game set with Tuesday’s 5-2 victory over Jon Lester and the Red Sox, and in doing so, improved to 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these teams in the Metrodome. What’s more, Minnesota has defended its home turf fiercely going back to last season, winning 51 of its last 73 inside the dome.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have done nothing but struggle when playing at Toronto, Tampa Bay and Minnesota (all indoor facilities with artificial surfaces), going 11-26 in the last 37 on the fake stuff. But those are hardly the most disturbing numbers associated with the Red Sox coming into this contest. The most disturbing numbers are attached to starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. The veteran right-hander is now 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA in three starts this season, including a 5-3 home loss to the Mets on Friday, his first game back after a five-week stint on the disabled list.
And in his one road start – his last one before going on the DL – Dice-K lasted all of one inning at Oakland, giving up five runs on five hits and two walks in a 6-5 loss. In fact, Boston has lost all three of Matsuzaka’s outings. On the other hand, Minnesota starting pitcher Kevin Slowey is 6-1 with a 4.23 ERA this season, including 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three. What’s more, Slowey is 5-0 at home and the Twins are 13-3 in Slowey’s last 16 home games.
Lastly, while the hot-hitting Twins have won five of their last six, the Red Sox are just 6-6 in their last 12 contests and they’re now three games under .500 on the road (10-13). Indeed, there’s a lot to like about the Twins tonight, including this near pick-em price. Back the home team.
5♦ MINNNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta at SAN FRANCISCO -105
Scored a FREE winner Tuesday night as the Rangers got the home win over the Yankees and tonight we've got another for you as we play the Giants at home to get the win over the Braves.
San Francisco has got southpaw Randy Johnson (3-4, 6.26 ERA) going tonight and we're backing him in this one as the Giants have owned the Braves over the last few seasons, winning eight of the last 10 meetings.
The Giants blanked Atlanta 5-0 on Tuesday behind the arm of Tim Lincecum and they'll get another strong pitching performance from Johnson tonight. The veteran lefty looked good in his last outing, allowing just one run on six hits in 5.1 innings of a 2-1 loss to the Mariners on Friday.
The Big Unit has been dominant against the Braves in recent years, allowing just one run to them in his last 22 innings dating back to 2004. He saw them last year and allowed one run on five hits over six innings as a starter for the D'Backs.
On the mound for the Braves is Kenshin Kawakami (3-5, 4.73 ERA) who is coming off his best start of the year Friday when he blanked the Blue Jays on three hits for eight innings of a 1-0 Atlanta win. On the road he's got a 6.89 ERA and the Braves have lost two of his three roadies.
Atlanta is just 18-41 in their last 59 on the road against teams with losing records and 10-25 as road favorites. Meanwhile the Giants are 20-9 against right-handed starters and they are 5-1 against Atlanta in the last six outings in San Francisco.
Look for Johnson to deliver a solid start and the offense to do just enough to win. Play the Giants at home.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
JIM FEIST
HOUSTON ASTROS / CINCINNATI REDS
Take OVER
The Houston pitching staff has taken a beating the last week, getting smacked around by the Rangers and the Reds in the opener, an 8-5 defeat. The staff gave up 13 hits and 5 walks, having to go with 4 pitchers. This is a hitter-friendly park and two struggling hurlers take the hill in Felipe Paulino (6.90 ERA) and Bronson Arroyo (5.79 ERA). Look for an offensive show, play the Astros/Reds over the total.
LT Profits
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
This early afternoon matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers features two starters that each team was counting on entering the season but who have continued to underachieve, and we see this continuing today.
Todd Wellemeyer won 13 games and posted a 3.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last year, but that season is starting to look more and more like a fluke. Wellemeyer has managed to go 4-4 this season, but he has done so with an ugly 5.19 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Most disconcerting is the fact that he is not really showing any improvement, as he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last three starts. He does not have a Quality Start in any of his last three starts vs. Milwaukee.
Likewise, the Brewers were expecting big things out of southpaw Manny Parra this season. Instead, he has gone 3-5 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, and he too has failed to show any improvement. He was lit up for nine runs (eight earned) in just 3.1 innings by the Minnesota Twins last Friday, and he has the misfortune of facing a Cardinals lineup that is just now starting to bust out of a prolonged hitting slump, and that put up eight runs last night.
Look for both teams to get their share of runs today and for this contest to reach double-digits in runs scored.
Pick: Cardinals/Brewers Over 9
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are 16-5 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start -- including 2-0 this season. In his last start, Jimenez, struck out seven and allowed six hits in seven innings. This is a fine performance. but the Rockies are 0-9 with Jimenez when they are facing a 500+ opponent and he had more strike outs than hits allowed in his last start. With the Rockies 0-7 since April 12, 2009 as a favorite after allowing 6+ runs, LA has all the line value here.
Red Dog Sports
Seattle at Oakland
Play Seattle
Eric Bedard has an ERA of 2.70 in his last 3 while Cahill's ERA is 6.30 in his last 3. Look for the Mariners to win this one 5-3.
GINA
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Go with the Nuggets tonight in a close battle at the Staples Center. Expect these rivals to have another close hard fought physical battle in LA. The Lakers are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games versus the Nuggets in Los Angeles, but Denver has played excellent for their supporters away from home in the playoffs. They have covered the spread in all six road games of the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets +6
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Go with the struggling Blue Jays with Roy Halladay at the helm. Toronto has dropped eight straight, hopefully Halladay will put an end to their slump. The right-hander has won his last five starts and is 19-4 with a 2.88 ERA in his career against the Orioles. Toronto has won four of Halladay's last 5 road starts and eight of his last 10 starts versus Baltimore at Oriole Park.
Toronto Blue Jays -165