John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Phillies as they face the Marlins and use the run-line if available. Florida is just 3-14 against the run line (-14.9 Units) versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 224-107 making 80.5 units since 2003. Play against NL road teams in the month of May with a low on-base percentage of <=.350 facing a team with a good bullpen sporting a WHIP <=1.350. Florida is just 4-13 (-10.0 Units) against the money line versus an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Phils are 52-32 (+12.6 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Marlins are 10-20 (-11.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. Phils starter Myers, after a rough start to the season, has really come to top form of late. Myers sports a 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP over his last 3 starts and the Marlins are not hitting period. Myers won his last start at Yankee Stadium despite allowing 3 HR – he has allowed 15 home runs in 9 starts. The weather is damp and cool in Philadelphia and that does keep the ball from flying out. The home plate umpire is Wally Bell and he is one of the more pitcher friendly umpires in the game. Extremely fair, however, just one that can give the corners more readily, which will help Myers’ ball movement. Take the Phils.
Mike Rose
Chicago Blackhawks +200
The youthful Blackhawks got a big time dose of reality when they were trounced by the Wings in Game 4 on their home ice. Absolutely nothing went right for G Cristobal Huet, who was making his first career playoff start in relief of the injured Khabibulin. He only stopped 21 of his 26 shots faced, which simply isn't good enough to get the job done against anyone at this level in the postseason. Even worse for Quenneville's squad, his top offensive players never really got shots on the Detroit net either. RW Patrick Kane, C Jonathan Toews, and RW Martin Havlat only combined to take five shots for the game, even though Toews did light the lamp with his goal in the second period, Chicago's lone strike of the game. Huet has the ability of beating the Red Wings. Just look at his effort from April 11th, when he stopped 21 of 23 shots in Chicago's 4-2 victory in Motown.
As long as Detroit doesn't get complacent and continues playing like it did in Game 4, this series shouldn't last too much longer. Stars C Johan Franzen (one goal), RW Marian Hossa (two goals, one assist), and LW Henrik Zetterberg (two goals) finally all came together on the same night, and the result was a six-goal outburst on a young goalie making his first start at this level. Meanwhile, it was business as usual for G Chris Osgood, who stopped 18 of the 19 shots he faced before being relieved by G Ty Conklin for the final 20 minutes of the game. The 6-1 final score in Game 4 looks incredibly lopsided, and an incredibly lopsided game it was. Anything and everything Detroit wanted to accomplish, it did. There's no doubt who the better team is in this series, but there's still a big question about the Wings and their killer instinct when they have a team down. They put away Columbus after going up 3-0, but really struggled with Anaheim for an unnecessarily long time. This Chicago club is the stingiest bunch they've run into so far in this postseason and won't go away easily.
Chicago's spirits are still very high in this series in spite of the bad loss in Game 4. The Blackhawks had every opportunity in the world to steal Game 2 of this series a week ago, and have to feel like they let one slip away. The odds weren't this high on Detroit in that Game 2, and though ultimately, they'll go on to defend their Stanley Cup title against the Pens again, tonight may not be the close out night. The young Hawks are almost too stupid to realize that they shouldn't be here, and they've defied the odds all season. Theres a ton of value on a Chicago team tonight with absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Jorge Gonzalez
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue jays will be looking to snap their eight game losing streak when they take on the Baltimore Orioles in their third game of the series, The Blue Jays will turn to Roy Holiday to end their losing ways against a team that th Doc has owned over his career. Holiday has a career record of 23-4 against the Orioles. Toronto has scored just 13 runs during their eight lost streak but have given Holiday has received 7.5 run of support in his last 11 starts from his teammates. Take Holiday to win his sixth straight game
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -142
The Astros have now lost 6 in a row and if they couldn't win with Oswalt yesterday, they won't be able to get the job done with Paulino tonight, who is 0-5 against the money line in 5 starts this season and has an ERA of 7.45 on the road. Cincy is a perfect 7-0 against the money line after 5 or more consecutive home games this season and it gets my support here tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on NY Yankees -134
I'll back the Yankees with the better starter on the hill in this bounce back spot. I know Burnett has been far from exceptional thus far, but he's due and I like his chances tonight when you consider that the Yankees are 4-1 in his last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. The Yankees are 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in this matchup, 11-3 in their last 14 overall, 44-19 in their last 63 during game 3 of a series, and 7-3 in their last 10 road games. Plus, the Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Take the Yanks tonight.
Stephen Nover
Reds -$1.45 vs Astros
The marketplace has pushed this game up, backing the Reds. At first I was leery of laying this price with Bronson Arroyo on the hill for Cincinnati.But the marketplace has this right. This isn't too high of a price to fade the fading Astros and their horrendous, overmatched manager Cecil Cooper.The surging Reds are just 1 1/2 games out of first place in the NL Central Division. They are playing their best ball and their confidence level is up, while the Astros have lost six in a row.Wandy Rodriguez couldn't win here on Monday. Roy Oswalt couldn't win on Tuesday. So what makes anybody think Felipe Paulino can win tonight? Cooper that's who. The idiot manager must not fully comprehend that Paulino is struggling big-time. Since returning to Houston's rotation, the youngster has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts. His ERA for this month is 13.14.Pitching in this hitter-friendly park isn't going to help young Paulino's confidence either. The Astros' bullpen has been a disaster, particularly in middle relief. Closer Jose Valverde remains out.The Astros catch one break in that Brandon Phillips isn't expected to start until the weekend. But the star second baseman is available to pinch-hitAnother key to the handicap is Arroyo. Oddsmakers have trouble figuring him out. Is he good or bad? His ERA is 5.79, which indicates bad.But a closer look reveals Arroyo to be good. After the All-Star break last season he went 8-4 with a 3.47 ERA.This season he's had two disastrous performances. These came against Atlanta (nine runs in 5 2/3 innings) and Milwaukee (nine runs in one inning). However, in his other seven starts he is 6-1 with a 3.28 ERA.The Reds are 13-4 when favored during Arroyo's last 17 home starts.
Greg Shaker
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Play: Over 9.5
The Rockies were limited to just 1 run last night but that is not going to happen often and certainly not when they face a lefty. They are batting well over .300 verses Southpaws. Case in point: The 21-year-old Kershaw struggled in his last outing against the Rockies, giving up a season-high nine runs while walking four in 4 2/3 innings of a 10-4 loss at Colorado on April 26. He is 1-3 with an 8.20 ERA in four starts versus the Rockies. These teams have played a lot of high scoring affairs this year and year's past and with this being a day game at Coors, this betting line is too low. Day games at Coors can be crazy and today's weather is favorable for another one of those types of contests. Jimenez' two starts this year verses LA were very poor, allowing 13 runs over about 8 innings of work. The fact is, LA leads the Big Leagues in runs scored and they have had little trouble scoring while playing Colorado. They have already plated 66 times verses the Rockies and their confidence level to keep that going should be very high. I like this one to top this low Coors Field Total today and I also like the +100 betting line as money is pouring in on the Under.
Rich Green
OAKLAND CAHILL -R +1.5 Runs, -150 Over Seattle
The Athletics trail the American League West Division under their Manager Bob Geren with a record of 18-25 on the season. They have won three games in a row lately though, and are getting good pitching and timely hitting. Rookie Trevor Cahill (2-4, 4.62) gets the nod for the A's this afternoon. The Right-hander is 0-1 with a 1.38 ERA versus the Mariners, and he allowed one run in six innings of a 3-2 road win against them May 2nd. This game can be a close one, and we'll take the runs for Free Players today.
The Mariners enter this Division match up under their first-year Manager Don Wakamatsu at 21-26 on the year. They have been mired in a 6-16 slump lately. Erik Bedard (2-2, 2.64 ERA) takes the mound for the Mariners this afternoon. The Lefty yielded a pair of solo homers and struck out six while throwing 95 pitches in five innings of a 3-0 loss to the Angels on Thursday. Negative trends for the Mariners here include 74-110 on the Road, 32-51 in May, and 11-20 versus Right-handed starters.
The Run line opened today at Athletics +1.5 Runs, -150. We'll take those runs and the Home A's to cover for us here today.
Nite Owl Sports
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: 1 unit Denver Nuggets +230
Lakers' recent dominance (TY and LY) over Nuggs at Staples, which had been quite impressive, is now a thing of the past, after game one changed all that, and game two proved that game one was not a fluke. And in that game one, Denver dominated early, but showed, with sub par FT shooting and some critical late mistakes (especially that horrible in-bounds pass in final seconds that was stolen by LA's Trevor Ariza to "ice' the win for the lucky Lakers) that as good as they have been playing, maybe they were not quite "at the next level" that it will take to de-throne LA as NBA West champs. But then Denver broke through in game two for that elusive road playoff SU win over a quality team, showing that maybe they have, in fact, reached that "next level" needed to de-throne LA as NBA West champs.
To determine if Nuggs have a realistic chance to win this game SU, we looked at both teams' performance in 16 "representative games" (7 Denver games as medium priced road dogs of about +200 on ML at NBA elite teams, and nine Laker games as home faves of about –200 on ML vs the NBA elite, both TY (including games one and two of this series and a late season (April) game between these two at Staples, as well as regular season games TY vs Boston (with KG playing), Orlando and Cleve) and all three Laker HGs in LY's final round vs Boston. And while Lakers were a decent 6-3 SU in their nine games, with an average MOV (margin of victory) of 4 points, including that game two loss to these Nuggs, they were just about “break even” when figuring in the heavy “juice” of –200 to - 250 they were laying on ML in those games. And in their 7 roadies vs NBA elite TY, Nuggs were 3-4 SU with an average MOL (margin of loss) of 2 points, but getting about +200 odds on ML each time, they were a profitable two or more units in those games (-4 units on the 4 losses, and +6 units on the 3 wins). Combining and averaging those #s (and counting the 3 Denver-Laker games in LA just 3X, not 6X) gives us a SU 8-5 advantage for LA in this game, with a projected LA win by 3.5, but again, when figuring in the big plus odds of +230 that Nuggs are getting on ML in this game, that 8-5 “advantage” for LA becomes an advantage of +3.5 units for the Nuggs (+11.5 units for Denver’s 5 SU wins, and –8 units for LA’s SU wins).
Moreover, the Kobies (excuse us, the Lakers) showed us very little in games one and two on their usually strong home court (where they had been dominant so far in TY's playoffs), often looking “out of sync” on offense, like they also did for all of game 7 (also at Staples) of Houston series, and on defense allowing Denver many more uncontested (or minimally contested) shots than normal, especially in game one. But LA won game one due primarily to Kobe Bryant's "will to win," as he carried his team on his back for most of the game, keeping them close enough for a chance to win by hitting for 40 points on 13-28 shooting (with only 3 trey attempts) and then “sealing the deal" by hitting 12 of 13 FTs, many of them down the stretch in that decisive 4Q. But laying –250 odds on Lakers for Kobe to pull out another last second win for his team, over a team that beat them the last time they played at this same site? We don’t think that makes much sense.
And if Kobe is not dominant tonite, and Pau Gasol cannot get untracked, Lakers could be in for a long night. For example, the game one results don’t bode well for LA, as Gasol scored just 13 and was able to get open for just a handful of shots (about half of his points were tip ins or “put-backs of missed shots by other Lakers), “Fish” had 13 but on only 5-13 shooting, and no other laker was in double figures (Odom scored just 7 on 3-7, and Bynum pulled one of his “no shows” with just 6 points on 2-4 shooting, playing limited minutes due to early foul trouble). Contrast that to Nuggs, who had much better balance than LA in game one, in support of “Melo’s” 39 points on 14-20 shooting, incl 4-5 treys – K Mart for 15 points on 7-14 shooting and 8 boards, and Nene with 14 points on 6-9 shooting. Even Chauncey Billups shook off a slow start and finished with 18 points, incl that crucial trey to keep Nuggs in it until game’s final shot. But what did in the Nuggs in that game one, in addition to some sloppy ball handling in the final minute, was their poor FT shooting (just 66% on 35 attempts compared to Lakers 83% on 24 FTs) and being outboarded 37-46. But in game two, while they did not shoot as well as in game one, they did a better job on the things that win games – they got to the FT line more times than LA (37 vs 35) and this time hit 78% from the line, plus they played Lakers even on the boards (42-43), and they took better care of the ball in “crunch time.”And in game 4, while that game was in Denver, the Nuggs “smoked” the Lakers on the glass, 42-25.
So based on the above, and the fact that Nuggs know they can beat Lakers in LA (having already done it in game 2) and that their chances of getting that needed win here in LA are much better in this game 5 than in a game 7, we give the Nuggets enough of a chance to win this game SU to justify risking one unit on them to win 2.3 units at these generous odds of +230.