Week 9 NCAA basketball betting preview
By: Willie Bee
With a combined record of 20-7 and both occupying slots in the top 20 of the rankings, Michigan State and Kansas State are each having pretty darn good seasons. And yet, they are the most disappointing teams two months into the college basketball betting season.
The coaches liked the Spartans and Wildcats before the season started. They liked them a lot, as a matter of fact, listing MSU second behind Duke with KSU third. Both were considered very strong candidates by most pundits to be seeded first when regionals are announced in a couple of months for the NCAA Tournament.
You can now stick that likelihood in your fat chance file. The Spartans (9-4 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) were down 17 rungs to 19th in last week's ESPN/USA Today poll (19th in the AP) while the Wildcats (11-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) were 17th in both rankings.
Consistent scoring has been the key problem for each squad. K-State ranks 82nd with a 74.6 per game average, with a 44.2 percent field goal mark putting the Wildcats 158th in the land. Michigan State is 95th with a 45.5 percent shooting mark, 66th in scoring with 75.4 points per game.
The Wildcats and Spartans have done a decent job on the defensive side, each holding opponents to less than 40 percent shooting on the season. Still, the 'Cats and Spartans have shown they are ripe for a loss when facing teams with strong front courts that control the paint. That could spell big trouble in conference play when they take on teams like the Buckeyes, Jayhawks, Boilermakers and Longhorns.
The preseason hype likely led to some fatter odds for each school to date, with bettors playing against the two a combined 13-8 in the black. To their credit, KSU and MSU have also played strong schedules, especially the Spartans who are ninth in Ken Pomeroy's SOS column. The Wildcats are 34th.
Kansas State has come off a pair of not-so-neutral site losses just before Christmas looking much better. The Wildcats couldn't hit a three-pointer to save their souls in defeats to Florida and UNLV, totaling just 103 points in the two games. K-State found their mark the last two, wins over Missouri-KC and North Florida in which they hit close to 60 percent from long range. Frank Martin's men even proved they could make free throws against the Ospreys last time out, sinking a season-high 76.9 percent (20-for-26).
Jacob Pullen will also return to action this week after his three-game-suspension. That should be a lift for the Wildcats who host Savannah State on Monday before opening Big 12 play in Stillwater against Oklahoma State on Saturday.
Michigan State also bounced back following a fairly ugly loss at home to Texas just before Christmas. The Spartans didn't necessarily play to their potential in taking down Minnesota on New Year's Eve. But they did get the 71-62 win to cover the seven-point spread, their first window victory since early December. Tom Izzo and his lads are on the Big Ten road this week with a Monday matchup at Northwestern and a Saturday date at Penn State.
Here's a glance at where last week's AP top 10 will be in action the next seven days.
1. Duke (*12-0 SU, 7-4 ATS)
Following Sunday's matchup versus Miami which was still in process, the top-ranked Blue Devils will slip out of ACC action for a game when they take on UAB in Durham on Wednesday (Jan. 5). The Blazers bring a 10-2 record (9-2 ATS) into the match that will be aired on ESPN2. Duke returns to conference play next Sunday (Jan. 9) when it hosts Maryland.
2. Ohio State (14-0, 7-4)
The Buckeyes are in Iowa City on Tuesday (Jan. 4) to face the Hawkeyes before hosting their first Big Ten game of the season Sunday when the Minnesota Golden Gophers come to Columbus.
3. Kansas (*12-0, 5-5)
Big 12 play won't start for yet another week for the Jayhawks who host the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos on Wednesday before traveling to Ann Arbor next Sunday to face Michigan.
4. Connecticut (11-1, 4-2)
The Huskies come off two spread defeats and a straight-up loss only to find a very tough week staring at them. UConn is in South Bend on Tuesday with a Big East battle against Notre Dame. Jim Calhoun's crew then treks south to Austin for a Saturday (Jan. 8) matchup with the Texas Longhorns.
5. Syracuse (15-0, 5-8)
Jim Boeheim's boys leave the state of New York for just the second time this season when the Orange travel to South Orange, NJ, on Saturday to face the Seton Hall Pirates. Syracuse, 13-0 at home, is 2-0 in New Jersey this campaign, taking down Michigan and Georgia Tech in Atlantic City over Thanksgiving in the Legends Classic. The Orange failed to cover either game as 6½- and 6-point favorites respectively.
6. Pittsburgh (13-1, 4-5)
With a week of rest under their belt, the Panthers get back to business on Tuesday at Dunkin Donuts Center in Providence against the Friars. Pitt returns to Iron City on Saturday to host Marquette.
7. San Diego State (15-0, 9-4)
A pair of Mountain West road games await the Aztecs this week. San Diego State first treks to Ft. Worth on Wednesday where the entire TCU campus will still be feeling the effects of Rose Bowl fever. Saturday finds SDSU in Provo to meet the Utah Utes.
8. Villanova (12-1, 5-5)
The Wildcats covered their Sunday tilt versus Rutgers by a bucket in an 81-65 win. They continue Big East action Thursday at Tampa's Sun Dome against South Florida. 'Nova returns to Philly for next Sunday's game against Cincinnati who enters the week with a perfect 14-0 mark (6-2 ATS).
9. Georgetown (12-2, 9-4)
The Hoyas open their week at Carnesecca Arena in Queens against St. John's on Monday. Georgetown will return home for a Saturday game versus West Virginia.
10. Missouri (13-1, 5-5)
Mizzou faces its final nonconference foe Wednesday when the Tigers host North Alabama. Mike Anderson's squad then opens Big 12 play in Boulder on Saturday against the Colorado Buffaloes.