Weekend Rewind
The Gold Sheet
We're not inclined to disagree with most of the pundits who are referring to the "soft bubble" the Selection Committee will be looking at this weekend in Indianapolis. Much of the at-large situation seemed to sort itself out last weekend, although there were a few interesting developments along the way.
One early conference tourney result in particular did its part to help define the bubble. The Missouri Valley Conference could have become a multi-bid league (and knock someone else off the bubble in the process) had Wichita State taken down Northern Iowa on Sunday in the "Arch Madness" finale at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. Instead, the favored Panthers, who would have been in line for an at-large regardless, took care of business by a 67-52 count in the Valley finale, reducing the Shockers to an unlikely at-large candidate. Still, however, a pending result in the Wednesday Horizon finale (where Butler hosts Wright State) could impact the bubble like a year ago, when the same Bulldogs, an at-large lock, were upset by Cleveland State in the finale, knocking another bubble team from elsewhere out of the mix. A unlikely win by Brad Brownell's Raiders would have the same impact.
Less certain to impact the bubble are a trio of finales to be conducted after we go to press Monday night. Old Dominion is less certain to be an at-large team than, say, Butler, should it need to go that route to the Dance by losing in the CAA finale vs. William & Mary at Richmond. The same might also be said of Siena in the Metro-Atlantic finale vs. surging Fairfield at Albany. Meanwhile, we know that Gonzaga will be dancing from the West Coast Conference, as might its Monday opponent in the finale, "bubbling" Saint Mary's. The Gaels, however, will spare themselves six days of agony waiting on the bubble if they can knock off the Zags.
Bubble Trouble...A handful of teams really hurt their at-large prospects last weekend and likely head into conference tourney action on the wrong side of the cut line. Certainly, Rhode Island didn't help itself after dropping a 2-point decision at lowly UMass, the Rams' fifth loss in seven games. URI's computer numbers looked pretty solid until a couple of weeks ago, but the Rams' late-season fade is reminiscent of other meltdowns that have cost Jim Baron's team in recent years. The Rams thus join Dayton and Charlotte as other one-time A-10 contenders that look like they'll miss the Dance unless they can win the conference tourney in Atlantic City this week. Georgia Tech is heading in the wrong direction, too, losing its fourth in five games on Saturday, courtesy Virginia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are going to have to rehabilitate their at-large hopes in a hurry at the ACC Tournament this week. As might Florida in the SEC Tourney after the Gators fell to their fourth straight loss, albeit a competitive affair at Kentucky. Also competitive in defeat was UAB, but a loss is a loss, and the Blazers' 52-50 setback at C-USA regular-season champ UTEP puts mike Davis' team at only 5-5 SU in its last 10, and now likely behind Memphis in the loop's potential at-large queue.
Less impressive in defeat was Mississippi State, which looked listless in a home setback vs. Tennessee. The Bulldogs remain without a marquee win (unless you want to count their regular-season sweep of rival Ole Miss) and continue to puzzle SEC onlookers, who believe the pieces simply do not fit for HC Rick Stansbury, who has a lineup of runners who love to play in transition but, aside from C Jarvis Varnado, often don't play a lick of defense. Varnado's defensive game is suited to a halfcourt game, where his teammates can funnel traffic into the paint, but is less effective in transition. But Varnado's MSU teammates are also apt to dog it too often on the stop end; it is amazing how many easy baskets opponents continue to get vs. MSU when Varnado is taken out of the defensive mix. Meanwhile, Illinois has headed south at the wrong time, losing its 5th in its last 6 outings and 13th of the season when popped at home by revenge-minded Wisconsin on Sunday. The Illini seem to be begging to be taken off the bubble, and the sideline exchange between HC Bruce Weber and star G Demetri McCamey on Sunday is an indicator that all might not be well in Champaign-Urbana heading into the Big Ten Tourney, in which Illinois must make a decent showing to get back on the right side of the cut line.
Bubble hopefuls... Talk about a clutch comeback! Ole Miss held Arkansas without a FG in the last six minutes and rallied from a double-digit deficit to dump the Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena, 68-66. It marked the Rebs' fourth straight win (albeit vs. lesser SEC West opposition) and allowed them to pull level with Mississippi State at the top of the SEC West, as well as affording them a first-round bye in this week's SEC Tourney. Ole Miss, which hasn't been to the Dance since 2002, has better computer numbers than MSU despite its two losses to the Bulldogs. Arizona State has moved back to the periphery of the bubble after its sweep of USC and UCLA in Tempe, bringing Herb Sendek's Sun Devils to 22-9 this season. Although ASU (swept by Pac-10 regular-season champ Cal) is still absent any true marquee wins (San Diego State probably its best non-conference win), it closed fast by winning 6 of 7, and even if its at-large candidacy is still iffy, can take care of business by simply winning the Pac-10 Tourney this week at Staples Center. Memphis has also positioned itself for an at-large by finishing with a rush and a clear second place in C-USA after whipping Tulsa on Saturday. Andy Katz and Joe Lunardi might consider it blasphemous for three C-USA teams to make the field, but we think the Tigers, UTEP, and UAB all might be deserving. As for Notre Dame, we think it is probably off the bubble and in safe territory after Saturday's 63-60 overtime win at Marquette. Now at 21 wins overall and 10-8 in the Big East, the Irish look in good shape, especially with their four straight impressive wins to close the regular season. Senior PF Luke Harangody also made an appearance after missing the previous five games with a bruised knee, on the court for 12 minutes at Milwaukee, although the Irish were doing fine without him before his return. Also moving to the periphery of the bubble are hot Saint Louis (taking advantage of some fades by other A-10 contenders) and Washington sides, although it might be too late for either to get on the Selection Committee's radar screen.
Player of the Weekend: Chris Warren, G, Ole Miss...No, that's not a young version of Ike Turner. But the guy with the goatee is Warren, who pumped home 31 points, including some big buckets in crunch time, as the Rebels kept their at-large hopes alive with a come-from-behind 68-66 win at Arkansas. Warren, who also scored 22 in a midweek win over LSU, hit a combined 10 of 16 triples in the two wins.
Game of the Weekend: Louisville 78 Syracuse 68...No, it wasn't a down-to-the-wire thriller, but it was a significant game nonetheless on Saturday at Louisville, where the hometown Cardinals played their final game at venerable Freedom Hall after 54 years calling it home. Freedom Hall is arguably one of the most-important venues in college hoop history, helping to usher in a new age of big-time basketball in the late 50s when it was a perfect venue for a series of Final Fours, which were often played in cramped downtown arenas with capacities hovering near 10,000 in those days. But Freedom Hall provided plenty of parking, nearly 20,000 seats, and a big-time feel that college hoops had rarely experienced outside of New York City up until that point. Among other memorable games, it was the site of Loyola-Chicago's dramatic 60-58 overtime win over Cincinnati in 1963, as well as Final Fours in 1958, 1959, 1961, 1967, and 1969. The old barn isn't going away, still a centerpiece of the vast fairgrounds in Louisville, and there is talk of the Kentucky Wildcats continuing to play their one game per season in the 'Ville at the Hall instead of the gleaming new downtown arena that will call the Cardinals home. But a salute is in order to one of college basketball's most legendary and durable facilities.