Weekend Winners & Losers
By Bruce Marshall
It was an interesting college hoops weekend, with the season now finally beginning to take on a bit of definition. Some of the more important developments over the weekend involved the following "winners" and "losers" from Thursday thru Sunday action, all of whom helped put the campaign into better focus.
Baylor: Loser...A defeat at Iowa State is usually not going to wreck a season. But the Bears’ 72-57 setback on Saturday at Ames speaks to a bigger narrative about Baylor’s campaign that to this point could be considered a disappointment. Never mind the 12-4 record; the Bears’ non-conference slate was filled with soft touches, and losses vs. the most-challenging intersectional foes (Gonzaga, Washington State and Florida State) have not helped an RPI that continues to hover in the triple digits. The campaign began awkwardly in Waco with star G LaceDarious Dunn suspended for the first three games after an ugly incident with his girlfriend, and the Bears have also missed the interior presence provided by departed C Ekpe Udoh (Warriors’ first-round pick) and Josh Lomers, who stepped up last March. A true frosh, 6'10 Perry Jones, has flashed some upside, but cannot yet impact games as did Udoh. The schedule now gets much tougher over the next two weeks for the Bears, and at this moment we are not even sure HC Scott Drew has a Big Dance qualifier in Waco.
Cincinnati: Loser...There is a thought that the rugged Big East is going claim several casualties this season. Notre Dame looks to be a potential "fade" candidate, and regional observers are also watching the Bearcats for signs of erosion. Sure, HC Mick Cronin deserves credit for Cincy’s fast start and what has been, for most of the season, the nation’s stingiest scoring defense (53 ppg). But the Bearcats’ non-league slate was soft, and early Big East dates included visits from arguably the three lowest-rated loop entries (Seton Hall, DePaul, and South Florida). On the road at Villanova and then at Syracuse on Saturday, the Bearcats looked quite ordinary. And the more-physical nature of this year’s team, which Cronin believed would help it better survive the conference wars, is now open to debate with rugged 6'9, 260-lb. PF Yancy Gates victimized by an ankle injury that limited him to only four minutes of action at the Carrier Dome, and 6'11 C Ibrahima Thomas having difficulty staying out of foul trouble, being disqualified in two recent games. Don’t be surprised if Cronin begins to give more minutes to frosh sharpshooter Ryan Kilpatrick (scoring 10 ppg while only averaging 19 minutes of floor time), who has been providing a spark off the bench but might warrant a longer look after hitting all three of his shots beyond the arc at Syracuse. The schedule is tough again this week with two more road games at St. John’s and Notre Dame.
Colorado: Winner...Looking for an early Coach of the Year darkhorse candidate? Try Colorado’s Tad Boyle, who has quickly made his mark in Boulder after spending the past few seasons putting Northern Colorado’s program on the map. And now they’re even starting to talk at the foot of the Rockies about the possibility of the Buffs breaking their extended NCAA Tourney drought which has existed since 1997, when Chauncey Billups led the team into the second round of the Big Dance. CU has now won 7 straight and 12 of its last 13 after knocking off Oklahoma State on Saturday by a 75-71 count. That also marked a third straight win over likely Big Dance participants, as Missouri and Kansas State (CU’s first ever back-to-back wins over ranked opponents) had previously been vanquished. And for the moment, the Buffs are surprisingly atop the Big XII table along with Texas A&M. The win over the Cowboys impressed regional observers, especially since CU stormed back from a 12-point deficit in the second half. Importantly, Boyle’s motion offense is creating more looks other than clear-outs for high scoring-wings Alec Burks (19.7 ppg) & Cory Higgins (16.6 ppg), with sr. G Levi Knutson now providing instant offense off the bench with his ability to drain triples (he’s hitting 51% beyond the arc). CU is also outrebounding recent foes despite a height disadvantage, speaking to the quickness of Fs Marcus Relphorde and Austin Dufault, plus 6-7 G Andre Roberson, the team’s rebound leader with 7.9 rpg. Burks & Higgins also represent lots of length on the perimeter, which has been a plus on the stop end. Keep an eye on these guys.
Colorado State: Winner...Not to be outdone by that lot down the road in Boulder, CSU is finally making some noise, too, as it dreams about its first NCAA invitation since 2003. That’s still a longshot, but the Rams continue to offer good value, covering for the sixth time in their last seven spread decisions when beating TCU on Saturday night at Moby Arena. The big and agile senior forward combination of 6'9 former Mississippi State transfer Andy Ogide (15.2 ppg) & 6'7 onetime juco Travis Franklin (14.2 ppg) is causing foes headaches in the paint. And now HC Tim Miles’ backcourt is beginning to produce, with another transfer, 6'3 ex-Iowa State soph G Wes Eikmeier, providing a recent spark as has jr. G Dorian Green, beginning to find his range beyond the arc while hitting 50% or better from tripleville in three of his last five outings. CSU appears more likely to end up in the NIT or one of the other postseason shindigs (CBI or CollegeInsider.com), where it could be a serious threat, although there is still plenty of action remaining in the regular season, and the Rams are not going to be an easy "out" for any Mountain West foe. And the Fort Collins supporters recall the magic of ‘03, when an underdog CSU team pulled a shocker while winning the MWC Tourney in Las Vegas. Could it happen again? Wednesday night’s game at UNLV definitely has the attention of regional observers.
Georgia: Winner...It’s time to start taking the Dawgs seriously. Near misses such as the one at Vanderbilt last Wednesday would have sent previous Georgia editions into a tailspin, but these Bulldogs proved they weren’t going to fade away when bouncing back to rout Ole Miss by a 98-76 count at Oxford on Saturday. Georgia’s multitude of weaponry erupted in a 63.5% FG shooting display at Tad Smith Coliseum just a week after proving too much for Kentucky in a 77-70 win at Stegeman Coliseum. Opponents are having problems dealing with the quickness and athleticism of Gs Travis Leslie (a dunkmeister scoring at 14.6 ppg, as well as leading the team with 7.6 rpg) and roadrunner Gerald Robinson, a Tennessee State transfer tallying 13.9 ppg and off a season-high 22 points vs. the Rebels. In fact, five players scored in double-digits at Ole Miss, and HC Mark Fox remains pleased by excellent ball movement, with 26 assists on the Dawgs’ 33 made shots at Oxford. Meanwhile, 6-9 jr. F Trey Thompkins (17.9 ppg) remains a matchup headache in the paint. With three straight home games beginning Tuesday vs. Tennessee, Georgia is poised to make a serious move in the SEC East.
North Carolina: Loser...We still think the Tar Heels will get to the Big Dance field. But now we’re not so sure the Tar Heels won’t be wearing their road baby blues in the first round. And we’re really not sure where the Tar Heels fit in the ACC’s pecking order, either, after Sunday night’s hard-to-explain 20-point loss at what had been an underachieving Georgia Tech. UNC’s recent 5-game win streak was achieved vs. series of beatable foes, but Heels hardly have a settled look, as Roy Williams tinkers with different combinations in rotation that features three true frosh (Gs Reggie Bullock & Kendall Marshall & F Harrison Barnes) trying to serve as complements to bigs 7'0 Tyler Zeller and 6'10 John Henson. Note that Heels have not offered much spread value lately, covering just 4 of their last 13 on the board after the embarrassment at Atlanta. We’ll know if the alarm bells should start ringing if Clemson can steal a win at the Dean Dome on Tuesday night after losing 54 straight times at Chapel Hill.
Pac-10 Conference: Loser...Sorry, we just can’t get too excited about what we’re seeing from the Pac-10, which seemed to offer hope a few weeks ago but now looks to be a decidedly ordinary loop at best. We’re hard-pressed to project any Pac-10 rep beyond the first weekend of the Big Dance, and we’re wondering again if the league is going to get more than two bids. We’re still assuming Washington and Arizona will make the NCAA field (although we’re not thrilled about either), but it’s tough to pencil in any other league rep. Last weekend was a prime example, as Southern Cal, which seemed to be on the verge of a real breakthrough, took about three steps backward when inexplicably losing a pair on the Oregon road trip. Sure, the Trojans caught the Ducks on opening night of their brand new Matt Arena in Eugene, but Oregon has limited weaponry, and that was a game SC needed to win if it wanted to be considered a serious contender. But the Trojans came out flat and allowed the Ducks to dictate the tempo and emotions of the night, much as SC did a year ago when going AWOL in similar games vs. the Oregon schools, which also swept the Trojans in 2009-10. And SC continued to struggle when losing on Saturday night at Oregon State when its defense took the night off, allowing 56% from the floor. Some Pac-10 scouts are wondering if the team is beginning to tune out quirky HC Kevin O’Neill, whose career is littered with various teams tiring of his idiosyncrasies as seasons progress. No matter, a team that can thrash Texas, win at Tennessee, and almost win at Kansas shouldn’t be getting swept by the Ducks and Beavers. But the bench remains thin, and 6'9 PF Alex Stephenson (who couldn’t reach double figures in points in either game) is still maddeningly inconsistent. Let’s forget projecting SC into the Big Dance field, or even keeping it on the periphery of the bubble, until further notice.
Meanwhile, Washington State continues to send mixed signals, although the Cougs did get a split of their weekend trip to the Bay Area, an improvement on their last road trip when getting swept at the L.A. schools. Still, NCAA hopeful teams shouldn’t be losing to this year’s Cal, and now the Cougs might have to proceed without PG Reggie Moore, suspended until further notice as HC Ken Bone and the school review two recent marijuana-related charges. Wazzu did win on Saturday at Stanford minus Moore, but got little from its bench with Faisal Aden promoted back into the starting five. And the team’s tendency to stand around and simply watch high-scoring G Klay Thompson take on opponents in a game of one-on-five cost Wazzu at Berkeley, when Thompson’s 36 points went for naught. Don’t be surprised if Pac-10 foes start to employ gimmick defenses to slow Thompson (the conference scoring leader at 22.9 ppg), as Cal did in the later stages of its Thursday win after being earlier burned by his 36 points. Wazzu is going to have to win a few more on the Pac-10 road and at least hold serve at home in this modest league to stay in the good graces of the Selection Committee, which is likely to soon begin doubting Wazzu’s March credentials.
Penn State: Winner...Recently, Penn State had scored its first back-to-back wins over ranked foes since the mid ‘50s (or when Joe Paterno was just an assistant football coach at Happy Valley under Rip Engle) when knocking off Michigan State and Illinois in consecutive games at the Bryce Jordan Center. And anyone who continued to underestimate HC Ed DeChellis’ crew was surprised yet again by the Nittany Lions’ near-miss on Saturday at now top-ranked Ohio State, which needed some help from the refs down the stretch to keep its unbeaten season alive. Big Ten scouts, however, might have been more impressed by the close loss at Columbus, in which Penn State, which started quickly, seemed in danger of getting knocked out early in the second half as the Buckeyes surged to a 44-33 lead. Rather than surrender, however, the Nittany Lions rallied, led by superb str. G Talor Battle, and forged a deadlock with less than two minutes to play before OSU frosh Jared Sullinger scored the key points down the stretch for Thad Matta’s crew to avert the upset. That also marked the Nittany Lions’ 13th pointspread cover in their last 14 tries as a Big Ten road dog. Despite their 10-7 record, we still think DeChellis’ troops can make a run at a Big Dance berth, especially if it finishes in the top half of the rugged Big Ten, which ought to gain the attention of the Selection Committee. The team has a senior core led by the excellent Battle (20.6 ppg), whose take-charge presence at the point comes in handy on the unforgiving conference trail, plus functional forwards Jeff Brooks (13.2 ppg), David Jackson (11.1 ppg), and ferocious 6'10 Andrew Jones, who does the necessary dirty work on the blocks. Penn State’s role players are also stepping to the fore the past few weeks, and remember the core of this team remains from the 2009 NIT championship side. Very dangerous.