Weekly Mid-Major NCAAB Report
By Nick Parsons
Missouri Misery
Throughout the year, there was strong case for the Missouri Valley Conference being on equal terms with ex-majors like the WAC and Mountain West. There was even grumblings about the conference matching its 2006 total of having 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. All of that was put to a temporary halt this past weekend as the MVC went 3-7 in their Bracket Buster games. Most disappointing was Missouri State's 80-67 loss over Valparaiso.
As we mentioned in last week's report, there has been a gradual decline in the amount of mid-major at-large bids and this past weekend did nothing to help the MVC. However this is a good thing for bettors and fans needing an early dose of March Madness, as their conference tournament will probably the most exciting.
February Futility
The term “March Madness” is used for the NCAA Tournament but what phrase would you use to describe Thursday night's contest between the Centenary Gentlemen and the Western Illinois Leathernecks. The Gentlemen are the worst team in the NCAA at 0-28, while Western Illinois has been the best fade in college sports going 3-17 ATS for the year. Both come into the game on big ATS losing streaks. Centenary has a 5 game ATS losing streak, while the Leathernecks are a 10 game one.
These two met in early December with Western Illinois winning 57-51. The Gentlemen however did manage to cover the 15 point spread.
Overvalued: Siena Saints
Its been almost a year since Siena nearly upset Purdue in the NCAA Tournament, but as is the case with most March Cinderellas, the betting public seems to have past CBS memories stuck in their head and this has been reflected in the line. The Saints are 11-16 but oddly enough they have been favorites in 10 of their last 13 games. Not surprising is that they went 3-10 ATS during that stretch. Even though its almost March, people seem to forget they lost their coach, the national assists leader, and their top two scorers from last year.
Undervalued: George Mason
It's hard to believe that a 23-5 team and conference leader could be undervalued, but that has been the case with George Mason in the last few weeks. The Patriots head into this week on an incredible 14 game ATS streak, and they aren't just covering by 1 or 2 points, they are destroying the spread. During this 14 game stretch they have been covering by an average of 9.46 points. Most impressive was their 71-51 over CAA foes VCU in which they were +1.5 dogs.
Top 3 Mid Major NBA Prospect Watch
Here's a look at what the Top 3 Mid Major NBA Prospects did last week.
Kenneth Faried PF Morehead St
Projection: Mid to Late 1st Round
Faried currently leads the NCAA in rebounds per game at 14.2 and is the top mid major prospect in the country. Last week he had 23 points and 15 rebounds in an OT win over Eastern Kentucky and then impressed scouts in his Bracket Buster game with 17 points and 12 rebounds as the Eagles upset Indiana State. That game marked his 4th straight double double and his 8th in the last 9 games.
Norris Cole PG Cleveland State
Projection: Early 2nd Round
There was no way he was going to replicate his performance against Youngstown State where Cole had 41 points 9 assists and 20 rebounds, but he was impressive in two road contests last week. The Senior guard had 16 points and 10 assists in a key Horizon League win over Wright State. That was followed up with a 35 point game against a tough Old Dominion team.
Keith Benson C Oakland
Projection: Early 2nd Round
We are hoping that there are no upsets in the Summit Tournament as it would be a shame to not see the 6'11 center get national attention before he turns pro. Benson had 22 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks against North Dakota and then had 18 points and 13 rebounds in their high scoring 105-96 win over South Dakota State.