West Coast Conference Tournament Preview
Triple Threat Sports
Gonzaga has now won ten straight WCC regular season titles and twelve of thriteen. That ties the Zags with two other teams for the second longest conference regular season title streak in the history of Div 1 play. As has been the custom in this league, the Zags and St Mary's have byes into the semis, and this year the tourney will once again be played a nuetral court at The Orleans Arena here in Las Vegas. Lets take a look insider the bracket!
The first round has 5th seeded Loyola-Marymount facing 8th seeded Pepperdine. LMU actually had the same record as #4 seed San Francsico but was swept in two meetings, giving the Dons the all important first round bye. Our Power Ratings show LMU as 12 points better than the Waves, but the teams did split the two regular season meetings. Each team won at home, with the Waves getting a 79-75 win and LMU dominating in a 77-61 victory. While true that Pepperdine had a couple of surprise wins during the season we have to believe that LMU will take this one, setting up a third contest against San Francisco.
As for the other first rounder pitting sixth seed San Diego and Santa Clara, the 7th seed. Unlike the first matchup of this round, these two teams are evenly matched, with USD having only a three point Power Ratings edge. Interestingly, the road team won both meetings this season and did so rather convincingly, with SCU posting a 59-43 win at The Slim Gym (aka Jenny Craig Pavillion) and the Torreros notching a 55-46 win at Santa Clara. We think Santa Clara will advance in this one, as San Diego is 2-11 SU in their last 13 games with the only two wins coming against Pepperdine.
Those results would set up a quarterfinal round of LMU vs San Fran and Santa Clara vs #3 seed Portland. We think the latter game would be a demolition, as Portland (#82 in our Power Ratings) is a major step up from the rest of the non Gonzaga-St Mary's WCC members, and they would have the advantage of an extra day of rest. Our forecast is for the Pilots to be -16 or so in that game. The other game in this round could offer a nice opportunity to make some money, as (despite the head to head results) we view LMU as the better team overall than San Francisco, and beating a team with more talent than you three times in a row is a tough chore. The line here will be inflated due to rest issues and the previous two USF wins, and catching anything more than three points would make LMU a solid underdog.
Those results would set up a very intersting semifinal round. The top half of the bracket would match LMU with Gonzaga, and while it would be LMU's third game in three days and they would be playing the best team in the conference, it is very notable taht the last time these two teams met LMU defeated Gonzaga 74-66 as a home dog. Tough to figure them doing so again, but it will make for an interesting storyline. For the record our Power Ratings call for GU to be a 12 point favorite, which would probably go to -15 or so with the rest factor added in. We call for an upset in the other semifinal, as we have felt St Mary's has been a pretender all season long, and Portland (only playing second game in a row) can expose them in this game. The teams each scored 152 points in the two games this season (both winning by five at home) and on a nuetral court we look for Portland to do enough to advnace to the tourney finals.
Once there the Pilots would face Gonzaga. Somewhat surprisingly, our Power Ratings call Gonzaga only three points better than Portland on this nuetral court, but since Gonzaga fans were here in Vegas in droves last year and probably will be again, and since Portland will be playing a third game in three days, our projected line is GU -6'. GU is 6-1 SU in the last seven title tilts and have covered four of those games. Our play on this one would depend on what the actual line ends up being; anything more than seven we will lean with Portland, anything less than five we will take Gonzaga.