Western Division Preview
By Scott Rickenbach
Leading up the NBA season we will take a quick look at each team. A good way to do that is to look at their number of wins last season and compare it to what odds makers are projecting for them for this season. We began with a division by division analysis of the Eastern Conference but with the season starting Tuesday, October 27th, we will now look at the Western Conference with a quick review of each of the 15 teams in one segment.
TEAM (LY ACTUAL WINS / TY PROJECTED WINS)
Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks (50 / 48.5) – A small projected decrease here but we don’t see it. The Mavs added Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden. They also have Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. The way the Mavericks roster shapes up they are able to match-up well with teams in terms of going big or small and strong or speedy. It’s a versatile roster and makes them a team to look out for this season.
Houston Rockets (53 / 35.5) – Huge dropoff projected this season and why not? The Rockets Yao Ming is going to miss the season. Tracy McGrady is projected to be out well into the season. Ron Artest is now in a Lakers uniform. The Rockets lack of size down low is a major concern.
Memphis Grizzlies (24 / 27.5) – Small increase in wins projected here and that’s no big surprise. When you’re at the bottom it’s hard not to move up a little even with the slightest of improvements. Hasheem Thabeet is a shotblocker, Allen Iverson is going to have some big nights when he gets hot with his scoring touch, and Zach Randolph also will be valuable contributor. Memphis could be a good dog play in the right spots this season.
New Orleans Hornets (49 / 46.5) – A projected decrease here but we don’t see it. Emeka Okafor is more dependable than Tyson Chandler was. Also, after regressing from 56 wins two years ago to 49 last season, we don’t see another drop here. Look for a little more hunger and intensity from a team that has a roster loaded with talent.
San Antonio Spurs (54 / 54.5) –The Spurs seem intent on making one more run at a Championship. San Antonio has the core pieces still in place and those veterans are now being asked to mesh with a youthful infusion of talent and athleticism. We feel that the right pieces have been added and the Spurs could enjoy a monster season but keep an eye on Manu Ginobili’s health as that could be a key factor.
Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets (54 / 52.5) – Carmelo Anthony is an elite player but can he finally be consistent and do it on a nightly basis. Unless he does, this projected decrease in wins could be "dead on". The Nuggets have been on the uptick but their bench lost some ammo in the off-season.
Minnesota Timberwolves (24 / 25.5) – As we noted with Memphis above, it’s hard not to improve when you’ve been near rock bottom the season before. Just making the change from Kevin McHale to Kurt Rambis should help re-invigorate this team. Look for the Timberwolves to be a dangerous dog once they get adjusted to all the changes that transpired for the roster in the off-season. Minnesota needed change. Now they just need to get everybody on the same page and start the rebuild. It will happen but this team is likely to only be better as they get deeper into the season.
Oklahoma City Thunder (23 / 35.5) – Huge projected improvement here and why not? This team is extremely talented but young. That’s why just being a year older is a big plus for this team and the experience they now have under their belts could help them approach a .500 season this year. They already had Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green for a very talented trio. Now look for big contributions from James Harden and Shaun Livingston as well.
Portland Trail Blazers (54 / 52.5) – Small decrease projected here but should it be. All the hard work for the Blazers last season, only to get knocked out right away in the post-season, absolutely makes this a very hungry team entering the new season. Couple that with the addition of a veteran point guard in Andre Miller and we could see an even bigger season from Brandon Roy in the backcourt. Roy can let Miller worry about distributing the ball now. Roy will simply break down defenses with his offensive skills!
Utah Jazz (48 / 49.5) – The Jazz are tough to gauge because Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, and Mehmet Okur all appear to be injury-prone…at least after the way last season went. When healthy, Utah is absolutely a contender but if they end up battling the injury bug again it could be a struggle just to maintain a .500 record. Keep an eye on the injury reports with this team!
Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors (29 / 35.5) – It’ll be all offense again for the Warriors with Monta Ellis hopefully staying healthy and the addition of Stephen Curry. Can Stephen Jackson maintain enough composure to have a big season? He’s so volatile but if he’s on his game this team could even sniff .500 possibly. Anthony Randolph closed the season strong and looked good this summer too. The Warriors could be a pleasant surprise this season.
Los Angeles Clippers (19 / 34.5) – Big projected improvement here. Baron Davis is still running the show but it’s what the Clippers have down low that has the fans feeling excited. Blake Griffin will now be alongside Marcus Camby and that means Chris Kaman could flourish with Griffin and Camby both drawing attention. We also like the Clippers bench and this team looks much deeper than they were last season.
Los Angeles Lakers (65 / 62) – Small projected decrease and it’s certainly justified. The defending champs will have the bullseye on their backs as everyone is gunning for them. Trevor Ariza is out and Ron Artest is in. That’s risky to say the least. Artest, Lamar Odom, Kobe Bryant, and Derek Fisher all are into double digits in years in this league and that eventually catches up with a player. Still the team to beat and getting beat is likely more this season than it was last season. Retaining the hunger could be a problem for the Lakers and plus their spreads could be inflated often enough to take advantage!
Phoenix Suns (46 / 41.5) – A significant projected decrease here and it is justified. Amare Stoudemire is still trying to get back "on his game" after off-season surgery. Shaquille O’Neal and Shawn Marion are long gone and Steve Nash and Grant Hill are both on the wrong side of 35. The Suns won’t to employ a wide-open attack and Channing Frye and Jason Richardson could fit well with that but this appears to be a transition season and could depend a lot on how much Nash and Hill have left in the tank plus how quickly Stoudemire gets closer to being the old Stoudemire.
Sacramento Kings (17 / 24.5) – Another rock bottom team, like Memphis and Minnesota, that should at least show some improvement – as the odds makers are forecasting. The problem is that there is such a long way to climb and Kevin Martin is relied upon to do too much and Tyreke Evans is only 19 years old. Losing Francisco Garcia for an extended period to begin this season certainly didn’t help the Kings. Now Desmond Mason is going to get more playing time. A lot of youth, athleticism, and talent on this team but coach Paul Westphal is going to have his hands full especially early in the season! ?