Which Conferences are College Basketball's Best?
By Colin Kelly
Gary Williams had a very interesting quote a few days back.
“Our conference is as good as the Big Ten,” the Maryland coach said about the ACC to the Baltimore Sun. “I’ll take Duke and (North) Carolina. Who do you want from the Big Ten? Ohio State and …”
He left the sentence unfinished, implying the Big Ten didn’t even have a Big Two that could match the Atlantic Coast Conference. That’s news to many people, including handicappers, whose livelihood relies on the ability to discern just how good a team or a conference is.
The returns are in, Mr. Williams. Among the power conferences, not only does the Big Ten have two – and perhaps more – that could match up, but so does the Big East and the Big 12.
“He’s basically defending the conference in a down year,” professional handicapper Marc Lawrence said. “His statement almost readily admits the conference is down. He’s trying to make an apples-to-apples comparison, but it’s more of an apples-to-oranges, panicky comparison. … They’re losing that threshold as a power basketball conference.”
So where do the power conferences rate at this point, with the NCAA Tournament looming in about a month? Let’s have a look at the good and the bad (and maybe some ugly).
ACC
GOOD: Williams is right about one thing: The conference has Duke and Carolina going for it – the last two national champions, with the Blue Devils winning last year after the Tar Heels took the 2009 crown. Carolina was miserable last season, and honestly wasn’t looking that good this year, but it put together a five-game win streak and has won six of seven, with the lone setback a competitive game at Duke.
Duke has an RPI rating of eighth, and Carolina checks in at a respectable 15th.
BAD: Much of the rest of the league. No other ACC team cracks the top 40 in the RPI; Boston College is next at 44, Florida State is 55th and Virginia Tech 68th, making those squads bubble teams at best, and perhaps not even that.
Another negative: This season, the conference has been mediocre straight-up and against the spread versus quality non-conference opposition – which describes a lot of NCAA Tournament games. The ACC, Lawrence cited, is 37-37 SU and 34-38-2 ATS against non-conference opponents with a win percentage of .600 or better. And the league may have very limited opportunities to improve on those numbers in the Big Dance.
“The fact of the matter is it could be that only two ACC teams make it,” Lawrence said.
BIG EAST
GOOD: Where do you start? Well, how about this: In a 16-team league that eats its own throughout the conference season, a whopping 13 teams have a winning record, led by Pittsburgh (23-2).
“I think the proof is in the pudding with the records of the teams in the Big East,” Lawrence said. “They’re reminiscent of the SEC in football – they’re handing each other all the losses.”
Four teams are in the top 10 in the RPI. Three more are in the next 10, and another two between 21 and 30. That’s nine teams in the RPI top 30. And unlike the ACC, Lawrence noted that in nonconference play vs. teams at .600 or better, the Big East is a sterling 50-30 SU and 48-32 ATS.
BAD: Not much. The only issue, as Covers Expert Steve Merril points out, is determining who really is exceptional when all these teams tend to take turns beating each other up.
“The question becomes: Are they all really good, or does the Big East have a bunch of good teams, but none that are really great?” Merril said.
BIG 12
GOOD: Much like the Big East (though not nearly as strong), nearly every team in the Big 12 has a winning record – 10 teams are above .500, with Oklahoma almost an 11th at 12-12. And the league has a 1-2 punch among the best in the land, with Kansas and Texas likely being ranked first and second when the new polls come out Monday.
“We’ve got a two-headed monster coming out of the Big 12,” Lawrence said. “Defense and rebounding, that’s what both of these teams bring. That’s what you need to sustain it and make your way through the tournament. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either one make the national championship game.”
BAD: There’s not much to pick on here, but: While Kansas and Texas are both in the RPI top 10, the next Big 12 team is Missouri at 30th, followed by No. 31 Kansas State – a reeling squad that is quickly playing its way out of the tournament.
BIG TEN
GOOD: Ohio State went into the weekend ranked No. 1. The Buckeyes might still be the best team in the land, but after Saturday’s loss at Wisconsin, they’ll drop down a couple notches for now. And there’s some good firepower behind Ohio State with the Badgers and Purdue, with all three in the RPI top 20.
BAD: Heading into the final stretch of conference play, five teams have already suffered at least 10 losses, a list that surprisingly includes perennial NCAA Tournament standout Michigan State, which is a meager 14-10.
SEC
GOOD: The East Division. Simple as that.
“Vanderbilt and Florida are pretty good,” Merril said. “Kentucky will be the best team by the end of the season – they’re just a young team.”
BAD: The West Division. Simple as that.
“It just jumps out at me how bad the West is. It’s interesting how one-sided the divisions are in the SEC,” Merril said. “The SEC West teams are almost all outside the top 100, at least in how I’d rank them.”
PAC-10
GOOD: Is that crickets chirping? OK, maybe that’s a little strong. After all, Arizona is pretty solid, at No. 16 in the RPI. And UCLA, Washington and Washington State are respectable. But the plot thins from there.
BAD: After Arizona, you have to go down to No. 40 in the RPI to find the next Pac-10 team, UCLA. Not a good sign when you consider how fast at-large NCAA bids get snapped up after all those automatic berths are doled out.
The bottom line, as Merril points out, is that the power conferences overall just aren’t as, well, powerful.
“It’s not a great year for the power conferences,” he said, noting he wouldn’t be surprised if a non-BCS conference team reaches the Final Four, as Butler did last year. “I definitely think we could see something like that again.”
Rankings of the six power conferences
1: Big East
2: Big 12
3: Big Ten
4: ACC
5: SEC
6: Pac-10