Who to bet and who to fade in the NBA home stretch
By Lrry Josephson
The NBA Draft Lottery has taken all the fun out of tanking.
The art of creatively losing games on purpose in the final month of the season to increase the chances of getting a stud college kid was one of the few constants in the league.
No more.
The erratic nature of ping pong balls has given long shots a chance at the No. 1 overall pick. In fact, the worst teams in the league over the last few decades have rarely even had a chance to draft first.
So what’s the sense in emptying the bench and playing Development League-quality players if you can’t even be assured of drafting ahead of the team you want desperately to beat you?
And even if that No. 1 pick falls in your lap, there are still no guarantees.
Ask the Trail Blazers, who have spent all season long trying to compensate for the loss of injured centerfold Greg Oden while Oklahoma City has built its franchise around the guy that fell to them at No. 2, Kevin Durant.
The top prize to the team lucky enough to get the No. 1 overall pick this year is expected to be John Wall, a one-and-doner at Kentucky. He is compared to Derrick Rose, but Wall’s numbers for the Wildcats don’t jump out at you – 16.6 ppg, 6.5 assists, 46 percent shooting and only 32 percent shooting from behind the 3-point line.
Where could Wall land?
The Nets already have their point guard in Devin Harris, the Timberwolves have a team full of PGs, Golden State might have room if it can dump Monta Ellis, the Wizards say Gilbert Arenas will be back, the Pistons are still developing Rodney Stuckey, the Kings are building around Tyreke Evans. Utah has the Knicks’ first-round pick and Deron Williams will direct traffic in Salt Lake for the next decade. New Orleans has the best point guard in the league (Chris Paul).
That leaves Philadelphia, Indiana, Houston, Memphis or Milwaukee as landing spots.
With all that in mind, handicapper Steve Merril says the final few weeks of the NBA regular season are a good time to keep an eye out for teams that have thrown in the towel. One team, he feels, is Washington.
“The Wizards are a team that comes to mind right now,” says Merril. “They will cover some games, but I would look to use them only in situations where their opponent is not focused and the line is high.”
Note: Merril’s comments were made before just before Washington broke a 16-game losing streak by beating another team going nowhere, Houston. The Wizards got 9.5 points in that one.
Teams to fade (besides Washington)
Los Angeles Clippers – Avoid these guys like yellow snow. Baron Davis, who has to stifle a laugh every time he cashes a paycheck, was supposed to be the team’s go-to guy but instead gave the team zero leadership when it went into a mid-season funk after a decent start. These guys lost by 18 at home to Golden State, which was thought to be against league by-laws.
Detroit Pistons – Try this on for size: Nine straight losses and 0-9 ATS in that stretch. Ben Gordon, who has been a huge disappointment and is now coming off the bench, will be paid $48 million over the next four years.
New Orleans Hornets – This is training camp all over again for Chris Paul as he returns from that nasty knee injury and the Hornets are still putting things back together in a season that started with high hopes. Next four games (at Memphis, at New Jersey, home vs. Charlotte and Utah) are against teams still playing hard.
Teams to back
Miami Heat – Doesn’t get much better than six wins a in a row and 4-1-1 ATS. But as Billy Mays used to say, there’s more. The road home for the Heat shows clear sailing – Indiana, Minnesota, Philadelphia (twice), Detroit, New York and New Jersey. And Michael Beasley is finally out of his funk.
Phoenix Suns – Does anyone really want to run with the Suns at this point of the season? Phoenix will win its 10th straight Friday night in Detroit and appears to be peaking. The Suns also are gunning for the No. 2 seed in the West. Amare Stoudemire, whose motivation has been questioned, is easily the best big in the Pacific Division.
New Jersey Nets – Funny thing happened to the Nets on the way to breaking the record for most losses in a season. They kept playing hard, won three of four and put the record in the rear view mirror. The public still isn’t buying, so big spreads may produce buying opportunities.
Teams to avoid altogether
Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers are approaching the home stretch the way high school seniors treat the finals days of school after grades are turned in. Los Angeles did all the heavy lifting early in the season, locking up home-court edge in the West by the All-Star break. Andrew Bynum’s return from injury will give them a boost and the Lakers can win just about any game they set their mind to, but they look like they’d rather sit by the pool with a cold drink until the playoffs start.
Boston Celtics – Amazingly, the Celtics have not beaten a healthy, quality team at home this season. Kendrick Perkins says the team is bored with regular season games. Nice to hear if you’ve shelled out big bucks for tickets. Good team to avoid, although they might be worth a flyer Sunday vs. Cleveland if they stumble again at home against Houston Friday. Boston has played well when local media and talk show callers get on their case.
New York Knicks – The big lines are enticing, but the Knicks have shown zero consistency either way ATS. Since March 15 it’s been W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L ATS. And four of the next five games are on the road.