Who's hot, who's not in the NBA
By Teddy Covers
Resurgent Mavericks
One of the most important tasks for any handicapper is to identify what role teams are at their best for cashing tickets. After its win over the Celtics last Friday, Dallas improved to 23-10 straight up as a road underdog over the last two seasons.
The betting markets cooled on Dallas when Dirk Nowitzki got hurt; deservedly so. Already transitioning to life without the injured Caron Butler, Rick Carlisle’s squad didn’t have the firepower to win without its All-Star. Dirk is my first half NBA MVP, and without him, the Mavs went through a 2-7 straight up and against the spread slump.
Well, Dirk is healthy right now and Dallas is winning again – nine straight heading into Wednesday's tilt with the Kings. The Mavs have already notched SU wins at Boston, Oklahoma City, Orlando, Miami, Utah, San Antonio, Atlanta and Denver this year as part of their 16-7 SU mark on the highway this campaign.
But because of their slump without Dirk in the lineup, the betting markets don’t seem to be offering the respect the Mavericks deserve right now. At Boston last Friday, the Mavs were +7, even though in their 39 previous games played with Nowitzki on the floor this year, the Mavs would be 37-2 against a +7 spread.
Dallas owns the longest current winning streak in the NBA, and things look even better on the horizon. Injured veterans Peja Stojakovic and Roddy Beaubois are expected to return to the lineup by the end of the All-Star break, and Caron Butler could be back on the court for the playoffs.
Vogel’s Moguls
The Indiana Pacers are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS since Frank Vogel became their interim head coach. Before we get too carried away with their current run of success, let’s not forget that three of those four wins came against Cleveland, Toronto and New Jersey. But the positive momentum in Indianapolis cannot be denied right now.
Indiana had six players score in double digits in its win over the Nets on Sunday.
Vogel: “We're playing as a team. We don't care who gets the shot. We just care about if the Pacers get the best shot every time down the court.”
Vogel made it very clear that he was not taking credit for their current run of success. “It's nothing I'm doing. It's our guys. They understand how good they are.”
The Pacers have made some offensive changes under Vogel, most notably their expanded reliance on running pick and roll sets with point guards Darren Collison and A.J. Price.
Vogel, talking about his young point guards: “We're going to get the ball in their hands and they're going to be more responsible than they were in the past for running this team.”
Turnovers is a big concern in this offensive transition though. The Pacers have committed a whopping 74 turnovers despite reaching the century mark in scoring during each of Vogel’s first four games at the helm.
Not Much Magic
It’s hard to picture a team that’s more overrated right now than the Orlando Magic. After gutting their roster with a series of mid-season deals, Stan Van Gundy’s squad is 6-8 in their last 14 games.
Those six wins all came against sub .500 foes: Cleveland, Indiana, Houston, Toronto, Philly (by one in OT) and Minnesota. The eight losses came against Miami, Memphis, Chicago, Detroit, Boston (twice), Oklahoma City and New Orleans, six of whom have to be characterized as just ‘good’ teams. It’s clear – the new look Magic can beat the weak, but they can’t step up against the NBA's elite squads.
The biggest problem for Orlando has come on the defensive end of the court, bad news for a team that has relied on tight defense during its playoff runs in each of the last two seasons. Since Jan. 1, against teams with winning records, the Magic have allowed more than 100 points per game on better than 50 percent shooting.
Orlando is also having real trouble acclimating mid-season acquisition Gilbert Arenas into the lineup. The veteran point guard will average $17 million per season over the next three years, a hefty price tag for a guy averaging 8.4 points and 4.0 assists in less than 22 minutes off the bench. Last week, he was served child support papers following the game, another embarrassment for this image conscious franchise.
Raptor Ineptitude
The Raptors are young and have been riddled with injuries. They've lost every key player except Demar DeRozan at some point this season. Their ineptitude in the post-Bosh era has been overshadowed by Cleveland’s utter collapse. In other words, this team has no expectations to turn things around over the second half of the campaign.
Rookie forward Ed Davis: “It’s tough, but in life you deal with adversity, you roll with it, so I’m just taking it as a learning experience.” Second year shooting guard Demar DeRozan: “It just seems like we can’t get nothing to go our way. But you’ve got to go through the tough times to get to the good times.” Coach Triano, responding to a fan on the sidelines complaining: “What am I supposed to do? All my starters are hurt.”
The Raptors played an extended stretch last week with DeRozan, Davis, Jerryd Bayless, Trey Johnson and Amir Johnson on the floor together; a quintet with an average age of 22 years old. They’re playing without injured veterans Linas Kleiza (now out for the year), Reggie Evans and Leandro Barbosa. Leading scorer Andre Bargnani is slumping and battling injury as well. Competitive efforts from this squad have been few and far between.
Toronto did snap its 13-game skid with a win over Minnesota this past weekend. That being said, the Raptors haven’t won back-to-back games since December 3rd and 5th, more than two months ago; a woeful 6-26 SU, 11-20-1 ATS since that time.
Triano has tried to put a positive spin on the constant losing as he fights to save his job. “Our focus has been not on what's happened in the past, it's been on the game at hand. I read all the stuff that different people say and talk about: Our guys being down a lot. I'd rather have them be down when you're losing rather than be joking around.”