Wild West Playoff Chase
By Joe Nelson
While the Lakers and Nuggets have not distanced themselves thoroughly from the rest of the Western Conference, those two teams appear to be in fine shape to earn the top two seeds as we approach the All-Star Break. The Utah Jazz currently hold the #3 spot, but nine teams are within 6 ½ games, separating the #3 seed and the first three teams out of the playoff picture. As we enter the break, the schedules ahead are not created equal and there could be a major shake-up in the standings by season’s end. Portland, Houston, New Orleans, and Memphis are all still in the mix, but here we’ll focus on five teams that currently are inside the playoff picture and teams that most assume to be playoff locks.
Utah Jazz: After a marginal start, no team has been hotter than the Jazz. Utah has won 13 of the last 14 games to climb close to Denver on top of the Northwest Division. Ironically, the one loss in this productive stretch came against the Nuggets, and Jazz would lose any potential tie-breaker with Denver, having already lost three of four meetings in that series although Utah did beat the Nuggets last week. The recent run of great play has been somewhat dictated by a favorable schedule as nine of the 13 wins came at home. The Jazz have a few nice wins in the span but there have also been several wins against losing teams.
The schedule ahead will be challenging for Utah as eleven of the next 16 games are on the road. Utah will face two four-game road trips in the next month, while the next four home games will also be against playoff caliber teams. Utah will face road games against several of the teams they are fighting for position with, playing at Houston, New Orleans, Portland, Phoenix, and Oklahoma City in the next month. The Jazz only have one of those opponents at home in this stretch and the late-season schedule will be no picnic either as seven of the final eleven games are also on the road. Utah looks like an elite contender right now, but as the schedule balances out, the Jazz will likely find themselves deeper in the conference standings and fighting to stay in the playoff picture.
Dallas Mavericks: Early in the season this Dallas team looked like an elite squad, bouncing back from a mediocre 2008-09 season. The Mavericks have fallen back to the pack with poor results over the last month and horrible ATS results for the season. Fourteen of the last 22 games for the Mavericks have been on the road, however the schedule is about to balance out with more favorable matchups in the coming weeks. The Mavericks have been a successful road team this season with a 17-11 SU mark, but the schedule has taken a toll of late, creating some doubt with this team as the break approaches.
Dallas has a great remaining schedule, so this team should not be ruled out to earn a high seed in the Western Conference playoff picture. Dallas has dropped back to the pack a bit, but is still well within striking distance of the top contenders and has managed to still stay in a top-four spot despite the tough run of games. Eleven of the next 17 games will be at home and eight of those games will be against teams that are .500 or worse. Dallas will not have to play more than two consecutive road games until the last week of the regular season and those will be games against the Kings and Clippers. The road games in the next month are far from easy, but the March schedule looks very favorable for Dallas with a lot of home games against losing teams. Look for Dallas to be a play-on team over the next several weeks as there is value on this team due to the poor overall ATS marks.
Phoenix Suns: The Suns went through a brutal January stretch, losing seven of nine at one point, but this team appears to have turned the corner. Oddly, the winning has returned as the schedule has become more difficult, winning four straight road games including wins at Houston, New Orleans, and Denver. Trade rumors have not helped the cause for Phoenix, but if this roster remains in tact the Suns will still be a difficult team to face in the postseason. Catching the Lakers in the division standings appears unlikely, but the Suns should be capable of moving up in the playoff picture if they can take care of business at home.
The Suns have a great schedule upcoming with 13 of the next 18 games at home. Amazingly, almost all the action will occur in the Western Conference with 15 of the next 18 games against conference rivals. The first two games after the break will be on the road for Phoenix, but after that the Suns will not play consecutive road games until a five-game road trip in late March. That stretch sounds daunting, but none of those five opponents currently has a winning record as Phoenix will close the season with favorable matchups. While some may project the Suns falling off the playoff map, this team is good enough to make up some ground in the coming weeks and actually should have a better shot at getting a top-four seed than falling out of the top eight.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder has been a remarkable story, now nine games above .500 after being one of the worst teams in the league last season. Oklahoma City has been incredibly profitable for backers this season, but is also now a viable playoff threat. The Thunder are a solid offensive team led by Kevin Durant, but the difference this season has come on defense as they have some of the best numbers in the league. Durant’s incredible string of 25+ point games is grabbing headlines and the Thunder is winning, looking to take a nice win streak into the All-Star Break. While the Thunder lacks the dominant home court edge that many other playoff contenders have shown, they have been able to win on the road, including taking five of the last seven road games including some nice efforts against quality teams.
The remaining schedule for Oklahoma City is quite balanced so this is a team that could go either way. The youth on this team could leave some suspicion as the season wears longer, but the Thunder does not have more than three consecutive road games at any point the rest of the season. Seven of the next 13 games are against below .500 teams and the closing schedule is relatively favorable, should Oklahoma City be locked in a tight chase for a playoff spot. Value may start to catch up with Oklahoma City as this team is getting a bit more national attention, but at this point this looks like a team that can stay in the playoff rankings.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs sit just inside the playoff picture at present, but most casual fans probably assume that they will comfortably slide into the postseason and emerge as a serious threat once again. That may be the case as the championship experience on this team is unparalleled, but San Antonio has enjoyed a favorable first-half schedule and is just barely hanging on. San Antonio is just 5-8 in the last 13 games and amazingly this team already has five home losses in 2010. The Spurs have also failed to win several of the close road games that they used to always finish off.
The Spurs will face the most challenging remaining schedule of any team in the playoff hunt in terms of travel. With 32 games remaining, only twelve home games are left on the schedule. The Spurs will not play consecutive home games again until late March, and lucky for them the matchups in those two games will be the Lakers and the Cavaliers. The only other stretch of two home games in a row the rest of the season occurs late against Houston and Orlando, so the Spurs are going to have to take care of business on the road in order to stay in the playoff picture. 13 of the next 18 games are road games and there are only a few cupcake matchups against losing teams in that span. Just based on the schedule, the Spurs do not look like a team that will be able to hold off the other challengers in the Western Conference, even with Portland and New Orleans battling major injury issues and Houston and Memphis fading of late. The Spurs could still make the playoffs, but it would be shocking if San Antonio improved to a top-four seed based on the remaining slate.