WNBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
WNBA Betting Pick
By Allen Moody
Bangthebook.com
Just one game on the WNBA schedule tonight, as we check-in with a 28-24-5 record after going throw a few winning and losing streaks. Tonight, the Minnesota Lynx are favored by 14 with a total of 167 against the Atlanta Dream.
Atlanta is a strange team, scoring roughly the same amount of points at home or away, but sometimes the defense appears to stay in Atlanta when the team takes to the road, as they allow 87.2 points in away games compared to 78 in home contests. One of the aspects that stands out when looking at this Atlanta team is how well they play against the West, sporting a 7-4 ATS record compared to 4-7-1 against East teams. The Dream also have a habit of playing to the over against the West, as they are 9-2 in totals, scoring an average of 85.1 points and allowing 83.7, while going 3-9 in totals against Eastern teams.
Minnesota has a comfortable lead for the best overall record in the WNBA, sitting at 19-2, while the Los Angeles Sparks are 17-6. Minnesota has lost just once at home this year, but are a dismal 3-8 against the spread, primarily due to having numbers like tonight’s 14-point spread to cover. Two of the their three home covers came against Washington and Los Angeles, so it looks to be a case of the Lynx playing their best when they face a decent team. Minnesota actually plays a little better on the road than they do at home, which can somewhat be expected when it appears the squad just goes through the motions a lot of times at home and does enough to win, not necessarily cover.
The teams played last week in Atlanta and the Lynx came away with a 90-80 victory, shooting 56.1% from the field in what was their third-best shooting game of the season. The Dream connected on 46.9% of their field goals and it’s not a given that either team will be able to duplicate that effort tonight.
My numbers have the game 89-73 in favor of the Lynx, while the totals methods are pretty well split, with forecasts ranging from 164.5 to 168. There are two things that stand out in this one to me, Atlanta’s totals record against the West and Minnesota’s poor home record against the number. With the teams playing again next week in Atlanta, there’s no reason for Minnesota to want to run the score up here, and the Lynx would probably be happy with another 90-80 win and move on, so going to take Atlanta +14 as tonight’s WNBA play.
ATLANTA (10 - 13) at MINNESOTA (19 - 2) - 8/3/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 6-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
StatFox Super Situations
ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 excellent shooting team (>=46%) against an average defensive team (40.5-43.5%), after a game where a team made 50% of their shots or better 39-16 since 1997. ( 70.9% | 21.4 units ) 4-5 this year. ( 44.4% | -1.5 units )
ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 off a win against a division rival, on Thursday nights 94-50 since 1997. ( 65.3% | 39.0 units ) 3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )