WNBA Finals Preview
By Richard Cohen
Seattle Storm (28-6) vs. Atlanta Dream (19-15)
Sun Sep 12: Atl @ Sea
Tue Sep 14: Atl @ Sea
Thu Sep 16: Sea @ Atl
Sun Sep 19: Sea @ Atl (if necessary)
Tue Sep 21: Atl @ Sea (if necessary)
Regular season series: Seattle won 2-0
Welcome to the main event, ladies and gentlemen. After four solid months of basketball, we're down to the final two contenders for the WNBA Championship. Best of five, for all the marbles. To my left, the Seattle Storm, the dominant regular-season team who looked like they'd be here all season long. Led by MVP Lauren Jackson and All-World point guard Sue Bird, they've been the bookmakers' favorites since May. To my right, the Atlanta Dream, who played great in May themselves, before producing barely .500 basketball the rest of the way. Since hitting the postseason they've been reborn, charging past Eastern Conference rivals without losing a game. Led by second-year phenom Angel McCoughtry, this is a rejuvenated Atlanta team, who enter the Finals as underdogs but without any doubt that they can compete. Can the young, upstart Dream upset a Storm team that have looked so strong all year? It's time to find out.
Let's look at the favorites first. Seattle has been so good all year long because they're smart, disciplined, balanced, work extremely hard, and because 'throw Lauren the ball' is a heck of a first option. If you've read my previews of earlier rounds or my column through the season, you've heard all the stats by now: second-best offensive team in the league in terms of points per possession; second-best defensive team in the same statistic; best rebounding team in the League; gave up the fewest points in the paint, the fewest points off turnovers, and the fewest fast-break points per game in the WNBA. This is a very, very good team. Beyond all those numbers, this is also a squad that simply knows how to win. They won 13 games in the regular season when they were trailing going into the fourth quarter - the most any other team managed was four. As they exhibited in completing the Western Conference Finals sweep over Phoenix last Sunday, the Storm don't ever quit, and when games are tight in the final seconds they have the talent and composure to close them out. You might outplay them for a quarter or even a half, but over 40 minutes they've found a way to come out on top, time and time again all year long.
Examining the Dream as a unit is more difficult, because this playoff team isn't quite the same as the one we've seen for much of the season. Head coach Marynell Meadors made a big decision going into their opening round against Washington, adding guards Coco Miller and Armintie Price to the starting lineup in place of point guard Shalee Lehning and center Erika de Souza. While they've often switched back to their more standard look during games, this smaller, quicker starting lineup has given the Dream the impetus they needed, helping them to two straight sweeps over Washington and New York. They're a team that likes to run, run, and keep on running. Having Miller and Price out there to start games has added athleticism and defensive pressure on the perimeter, which creates turnovers and helps them get out in transition. They've averaged nearly 18 fast-break points per game in the playoffs so far, more than anyone managed in the regular season, and when they get out like that it builds momentum and confidence that leads to dangerous scoring streaks. When they're rolling, the Dream can start to look like a juggernaut, because their length, pace and size makes them hard to stop. A central part of Seattle head coach Brian Agler's gameplan will simply be to slow them down.
Checking out the personnel matchups in this series, the Storm would seem to have an advantage in talent at the guard spots, although not necessarily in depth. Sue Bird is the best point guard in the game, running the offense with calculated precision and stepping up to take important shots when necessary, as miserable Mercury fans can attest. Alongside her is Tanisha Wright, who's developed into a solid ballhandler and useful complementary scorer, while also appearing on the WNBA All-Defensive First Team for the second year in a row. Wright is carrying a knee injury which hindered her mobility slightly in the Phoenix series, but she's tough enough to play through it without too much drop-off in her game. Off the bench, Svetlana Abrosimova has been an outstanding sixth woman for Seattle this year, providing 20 minutes per game of hustle, energy and offensive aggression to spell Bird and Wright. It's not the most athletic trio in the World, but all three are smart and tend to make the right play when called upon, and all three can make shots.
Over on Atlanta's side, the guard situation is a little more complicated. Having worked so well so far in the playoffs, expect Coco Miller and Armintie Price to start, but Shalee Lehning will come off the bench and Iziane Castro Marques will slide over to play plenty of minutes at the guard spots as well. Miller's had an exceptional postseason, especially considering her virtual invisibility throughout the regular season. She's hitting shots from all angles and playing aggressive defense against whichever matchup is placed in front of her. The real defensive force on the perimeter, however, has been Price, who was tasked with chasing around the likes of Lindsey Harding and Cappie Pondexter in the first two rounds. It may well be her job to try and pressure Sue Bird as much as possible in this series. Price's crazy athleticism makes her a threat to create turnovers and score on the break, but if the Storm force her into becoming a jumpshooter, she becomes an offensive liability. Lehning may have lost her starting role, but she's come off the bench in the playoffs and still been a useful piece of the puzzle. She's smart and controlled, and she knows when to push the tempo to keep Atlanta on the front foot. Castro Marques is Atlanta's wildcard. The Dream's second-highest scorer this season, she led the League by miles in fast-break points, and if you don't pick her up on the break or just off your own misses she'll be flying to the basket before you can blink. She consistently throws up her trademark funky-looking running shots from either side of the hoop, but they've been consistently going in all year. However, Izi's a born gunner, and she's been known to go decidedly cold but just keep firing away. Wright will probably be on her for much of the series, and if she can slow Izi down and stay in front of her, then Atlanta's offense loses one of its most dangerous weapons.
By the end of the month they may well be on the same roster for Team USA at the World Championships, but for the next week or two the small forwards in this series will play a central role in deciding the victor. Angel McCoughtry is Atlanta's leader, primary offensive option, and as she showed in scoring a playoff-record 42 points to close out New York on Tuesday night, a fearsome prospect to try and stop. While some were still questioning whether she had the killer instinct to close out a playoff series on her own, McCoughtry went off against New York and produced an individual performance that had spectators purring (as long as they weren't Liberty fans). The question is whether she can do it against a significantly tougher perimeter defense in Seattle. Angel got to the free-throw line a ridiculous 38 times in the two-game series against the Liberty, and although she's been consistently good at getting to the line all year, it's hard to see those numbers being anywhere near as high against Seattle's strong, rotating defence. As with Castro Marques, if you limit McCoughtry's fast-break opportunities and can stay in front of her enough to limit her free-throw opportunities, she becomes a jumpshooter. If she's just firing away, her chances of hurting the Storm decrease dramatically, because her jumper is still decidedly streaky. Her direct opposition in green, Swin Cash, isn't getting McCoughtry's press these days with Bird and Jackson alongside her, but she's had an outstanding season as a complement to her illustrious teammates. Cash will likely be the primary defender on McCoughtry, and her strength, length and mobility will trouble Angel more than the likes of Powell and Carson did for New York. Cash's offense has diversified this season thanks to drastically improved three-point shooting, which has made her a true threat both inside and out. McCoughtry likes to play the passing lanes, and if she spends too much time gambling or doubling down on Jackson, Cash is primed to hurt the Dream just like she did LA and Phoenix in previous rounds. Watch these two fight it out all series long, and if you're American be happy that neither will be playing against the US in the Czech Republic later this month.
Down in the paint could well be where this series is won and lost. Seattle was first and Atlanta third in the WNBA in rebounding percentage this season, at 54.5% and 53.6% respectively. They were first and second in offensive rebounding. The talented mathematicians among you will recognize that there won't be 108.1% of rebounds to go around in this series, so something's gotta give. The Dream get things done down low by being very, very long, and very, very big. It's not rocket science; when you're ginormous, you're probably going to grab a whole bunch of boards. Despite the smaller starting lineup they've been throwing out, they've still had two of Sancho Lyttle, Erika de Souza, Alison Bales and Yelena Leuchanka on the floor for the majority of their games, and that's a whole lot of beef. Bales and Leuchanka are the backups, usually providing only spot minutes but capable of changing shots defensively, taking up a lot of room and scoring reasonably efficiently if you lose track of them. De Souza has been a starter all season but hasn't complained about coming off the bench in the postseason, using the time to gauge the flow of the game and avoid the early foul trouble that sometimes plagues her. New York complained long and hard about the Atlanta bigs going over the back for rebounds in the Eastern Finals, and Erika was a primary culprit, but if the officials call this series a similar way the simple height and bulk of de Souza could hand Atlanta the advantage on the boards. She was hitting her baseline jumper against the Liberty as well, which makes her even more dangerous offensively. Lyttle is a different kind of player, with her long limbs and bouncy athleticism making her a defensive threat and a rebounding annoyance. The Dream will mix up their looks defensively against Jackson, including using the zone that worked so well against Washington, but it's likely to be Lyttle that will chase her around through much of the series. Sancho has the speed and the stamina to do it, and her improved offensive arsenal will make Jackson work defensively as well, but as always it'll be something of a damage limitation exercise.
Seattle is a different animal from the Dream down on the block, but no less dangerous. They may not have the pure size and length of Atlanta, but the presence of League MVP Lauren Jackson means that we may barely notice. LJ can score from anywhere, and will do so against whatever defense Atlanta throws at her. Seattle's precision offense and Jackson's talent will get her points down low even with the likes of de Souza and Lyttle patrolling, but if Atlanta tries to camp out and collapse down low, she'll pop out top and drain a few 3s as well. Making her work hard for her points is about all the Dream can hope for, because Seattle is too good to constantly send extra defenders and try to shut her down. LA did that in the first round and she got her usual 20 points per game anyway, while her teammates were left with wide open shots all around her. It's not worth it. Just to top things off, Jackson's a superb defender these days as well (I doubt she really cares, but making her second-team All-Defense this year was less than she deserved). The Storm lack height alongside LJ but they'll still combine to make things very difficult for the Dream down low. Her primary partners in crime this season have been Camille Little and Le'coe Willingham. Neither is much over six-feet tall (whatever the official numbers claim) but both use their bodies well defensively and for rebounding position, and both work extremely hard on the boards. Little and Jackson are also both quicker than most of Atlanta's bigs, which will be one of their main advantages in trying to compete with Atlanta's size. Typically you'd expect that to be the end of Seattle's rotation, cut down to their core seven for the playoffs. However, Atlanta's length and depth means we might see a little of Ashley Robinson, and maybe a little more of Jana Vesela. Robinson isn't much more than a big body who can take up space and play some defense, but Vesela has some range and offensive ability that she's flashed on several occasions this season. When Jackson needs a rest in this series Vesela may well see some time because even though she's not a true post, she's definitely long, and Little/Willingham would be a precariously small post lineup against Atlanta's giants.
It's always dangerous to put too much stock in what happened during the regular season when predicting the playoffs, especially considering the leap that the Dream have managed to take in the last couple of weeks, but Atlanta better hope that the leap's enough to overcome practically all the precedents. Seattle won both games between these two this year, and McCoughtry, Castro Marques and Lyttle went a combined 27-103 from the floor in those two games. That's 26% shooting from Atlanta's three best players. Unless Angel gets to the line about 40 times a game, expect a Storm sweep if those percentages recur. This is the problem Atlanta may have against the Storm: the opportunities to score that made them so effective against Washington and New York simply may not be there against Seattle's defense. The Storm slide and help each other so well defensively that it's hard to find gaps, and they work hard to get back in transition to prevent fast-break chances for their opponents. Seattle is also typically pretty good at keeping its turnover numbers down, which will limit Atlanta's opportunities to get out on the break. Bird and Wright makes smart, tight passes out on the perimeter and that cuts into the chances people like McCoughtry and Price have to jump passing lanes and create steals. If Seattle slows them down, Atlanta is left with its half-court sets, and things might get ugly. Their high-low game started to work again against New York after most teams had worked it out during the regular season, but that was against an undermanned, undersized Liberty post rotation. Expect Cash, Jackson and Little to seriously limit the effectiveness of the seal moves that have become de Souza's stock in trade. If those scoring chances aren't there for Erika and Sancho Lyttle, Atlanta's half-court offense comes down to Angel, Izi and the likes of Coco Miller creating their own shots. The first two rounds of the playoffs went pretty well, and Atlanta even shot nearly 40% from behind the three-point line after being below 29% from beyond the arc during the regular season. But that was when everything was flowing and their confidence was up. No one on Atlanta's perimeter is a proven consistent jump-shooting threat, especially from three-point range, so if Seattle's defense can force them into becoming a half-court team, the Dream are in trouble.
The other element that jumps out from the regular season is the Storm's home record. They were 17-0 in the regular season at Key Arena, 19-0 if you include the playoffs. The ticket sales for Game 1 are already well into five-digits (despite the game taking place on the NFL's opening Sunday), so expect some deafening support for the Storm from arguably the WNBA's most vociferous crowd. No team in WNBA history has ever gone undefeated at home throughout an entire season including the playoffs, but that certainly doesn't mean the Storm are destined to drop at least one in this series. It would just be another record for Seattle to break in this remarkable season. The home-court advantage for the Storm is enhanced even further due to Sesame Street Live occupying Philips Arena in Atlanta through middle of September. The Dream managed to negotiate their way into playing at Philips for Game 3, but if a Game 4 is necessary it'll be all the way out at the Gwinnett Center in Duluth. The crowd would obviously still be pro-Dream, but it wouldn't be the home arena the Dream players have been comfortable in all season. It's certainly not beyond the Dream to finally break the Storm's stranglehold at home - they did win games in both Washington and New York in the last two rounds, after all - but the confidence the Storm have at home is yet another thing in their favor. If we end up heading back to the Key for Game 5 on September 21, with a screaming sea of green baying for a full 40 minutes, do you think McCoughtry's going to get quite so many calls every time she barrels towards the basket?
Here's the good news, Dream fans: I predicted that you'd lose in both the last two rounds as well, so the line below this paragraph could easily be seen as just a kiss of death for the Storm. The Dream seem to have enjoyed their role as the unfancied underdogs so far in the playoffs, coming in as an underperforming fourth seed before surging through in consecutive sweeps over strong Eastern Conference opponents. However, a largely healthy 2010 Seattle Storm team is more than they've had to deal with so far this postseason. The Storm can throw defenders like Wright and Cash at Castro Marques and McCoughtry, with help coming from all angles when necessary, just like it has all season long in Brian Agler's remarkably effective defensive system. At the other end, Seattle has shown an ability all year to score enough points against whatever defense opponents can offer, and its precision and execution should get things done despite Atlanta's athleticism and length. If all else fails they'll throw the ball to Lauren Jackson and let her go to work, and if Atlanta sends double and triple-teams at her the Storm have consistently shown that they have players who can hit open shots. McCoughtry was remarkable against New York, but I don't think she'll draw as many whistles against Seattle's better defenders and I'm not convinced she'll have enough help if the Storm force her to look to her teammates. The Dream are good enough to take a game (or maybe even two) from the Storm, but Seattle only lost six games all year for very good reasons. On top of all that, they have a considerable edge in experience at this sort of level, and I still trust Agler to make the right coaching move far more than I do Meadors. As a neutral I'd love to see a Game 5, if only to see the spectacle that the Key Arena crowd would turn it into, but I don't honestly expect the Storm to need it. I had the Storm beating Indiana 3-1 in my preseason Finals pick; I had Seattle over New York 3-1 in my postseason predictions; so it seems only fair that I stick to my guns with most of the prediction, even if the contenders have turned out to be a little different.
Finals Prediction: Seattle 3-1