Thursday's Best WNBA Bet
Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury (-7.5, 181)
The Phoenix Mercury look like the farthest thing from WNBA champs.
The Mercury have dropped back-to-back games and four of their last five outings, most recently falling 92-91 to the Los Angeles Sparks on a Candice Parker jumper this Tuesday.
Phoenix’s defense has been the big issue during this skid, allowing over 93 points per game over the last five. The Mercury are the most explosive offensive club in the league, scoring a WNBA-high 88.4 points a night. But that inability to stop opponents has led to a 3-1-1 over/under mark during that span.
Minnesota, who upset Phoenix at the beginning of the month, has found its offensive touch after a slow start to the schedule. The Lynx are averaging almost 88 point a game since beating the Mercury 92-82.
Pick: Over
Minnesota has star back for desert duel
ByKate Hedlin
The Phoenix Mercury suffered a heartbreaking loss in their last game as the defending WNBA champions struggled against in another matchup with one of the league’s weaker teams. They’ll face another challenge Thursday night when they host the Minnesota Lynx, who expect to have All-Star Seimone Augustus in the lineup for the first time since she tore her ACL last year.
The Mercury (3-5, 2-6 ATS) are 4 1/2 games behind conference-leading Seattle, due in part to their inability to take advantage of two lesser opponents this month. Phoenix, which lost 92-82 to Minnesota (2-7, 3-6 ATS) last Tuesday, fell 92-91 to Los Angeles on Tuesday for its second straight defeat. Candace Parker made a layup with 3.4 seconds remaining to give her team its second win. Nonetheless the Mercury is 9-1 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.
The Mercury allowed Parker to score 22 points, and they could face another tough matchup in Augustus. The fifth-year guard is set to make her season debut after suffering a season-ending knee injury June 17 against Phoenix.
“I just want to have fun and win while enjoying basketball again and enjoying being out there with my teammates,” she told Minnesota’s official website.
The last-place Lynx (2-7) need Augustus, who has averaged 21.2 points in her career, to boost their offense. Minnesota is scoring 74.8 points per game - second-lowest in the WNBA - and shooting a league-worst 37.7 percent. “Obviously we’ve had problems putting the ball in the hole,” coach Cheryl Reeve said. “We’re looking to improve those things and having our best player on the court would really help in those areas.”
Minnesota has not performed well against teams like Phoenix and is 12-25 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 73 or more points a game over the last three seasons.
While the team didn’t announce how much Augustus will play, she only returned to full practice Tuesday. Besides ACL surgery, she also underwent abdominal surgery in May. The Lynx didn’t need Augustus in a 92-82 home win over the Mercury on June 1, as Monica Wright scored a career-high 32 points.
Minnesota, however, could have used Augustus in an 89-51 loss to Indiana on Sunday. The Lynx were held to a franchise-low 12 field goals and eight points in the fourth quarter - a team record for that period.
Minnesota played without Lindsay Whalen, who sat out with an undisclosed illness. It’s uncertain if she’ll be back in the lineup Thursday.
The guard averages 11.5 points and a team-high 4.3 assists.
While the Lynx have been struggling to score, the combination of Augustus’ return plus a matchup with the league’s worst defensive team could help. The Mercury are allowing 88.4 points per game and gave up at least 92 in four of the last five games and Minnesota is 9-2 OVER versus good offensive teams scoring 77 more points a contest.
Bookmaker.com has Phoenix as 7.5-point favorites, with total of 180.5. The Mercury are 13-4 ATS revenging a loss and 15-4 ATS after one or more defeats since last year. The Lynx will try to run with Phoenix, however is only 5-16 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive conflicts as an underdog.
This Western Conference matchup has 7:00 Pacific start and Phoenix is 11-1 OVER off a loss against a conference rival over the last two seasons.
MINNESOTA vs. PHOENIX
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Phoenix is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Phoenix is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
MINNESOTA (2 - 7) at PHOENIX (3 - 5)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons