13 Futures to Watch
By The Gold Sheet
Somewhere, Pete Rozelle is looking down at the NFL monster he helped create, and probably nodding his head accordingly. Because, indeed, there is no parity in pro sports like the one Rozelle sought so hard to create in the NFL.
A look at recent playoff participants confirms as much. Over the 2004-2007 seasons, 48 teams entered the NFL playoffs. Of those 48 entries, only 19 of them were able to return to the postseason the following year. Although there have been a handful of semi-regulars making the playoffs, such as the Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Giants, and Chargers, the recent pattern is unmistakable...things can change rather quickly in the NFL. The 2008 campaign was merely the latest example, with the likes of the Dolphins, Falcons, Ravens, Titans, and Cardinals taking flight and making the playoffs after sub-.500 seasons in '07, while some stalwarts from the previous year, such as the Patriots, Packers, Cowboys, and Jaguars didn't even make the postseason tournament.
In fact, that pattern has become so pronounced that oddsmakers, realizing the wagering public was finally picking up on the trend, began to place selected "future" NFL season win-loss numbers more accordingly this year. Surprise teams from the previous season, such as the Dolphins, are getting less respect in such "future" numbers than they used to receive as the wagering public, sensitive to results from recent seasons, anticipates a regression. Prices can also swing wildly from when the "futures" numbers are first posted in the spring until the kickoff of regular season action, with some of the more pronounced changes occurring during the preseason.
We do not, however, necessarily subscribe to the notion that any "value" in the numbers and pricing has been eliminated by the time the regular season begins, nor do we put an inordinate value on the "strength of schedule" component that many use to help make decisions on the season won/loss wagers. After all, as our previously mentioned research indicates, results from recent seasons have hardly been staying consistent from one year to the next, so if there's any foolproof method to identify the best "futures" bets, it's still a secret. As for the "strength of schedule" factor, the only "SOS" component that means anything for 2009 is one that would reflect this season's records at the endof the upcoming campaign, not from 2008. And with 32 teams to choose from, there are plenty of "future" wagering opportunities right until the opening week kickoff. The widely varying "futures" prices available at different sports books also indicates that a bit of careful shopping by the buyer can still uncover some decent values on the board.
As always in "futures" wagering, the objective is to first select which teams you believe are going to win or lose more than the oddsmakers predict; do your price shopping afterwards. With that in mind, here are some of our best ideas for this season's NFL "futures" wagers, with season win/loss numbers provided by SPORTSBETTING.com.
Atlanta Falcons ("Under" 8 1/2)...Granted, adding TE Tony Gonzalez appears to provide the Atlanta offense with the one piece it was missing in '08. And we're big fans of QB "Matty Ice" Ryan. But the Falcons played in some good luck last season, with few key injuries and six wins by a TD or less. The defense, ravaged by free agent losses, has looked spotty in preseason. Let's also point out that Atlanta has never put back-to-back winning seasons together in its 43-year history. Much better prices can be found on the "under" at 81/2 wins rather than 9, so shop accordingly.
Carolina Panthers (Under 8 1/2)...No NFC South team has repeated as division winner since the league realigned in 2002 (for what it's worth, we're bullish on the Saints emerging this season). And we doubt the Panthers break that pattern, especially with QB Jake Delhomme, not long removed from Tommy John surgery, apparently on the downside of his career (as the Arizona playoff fiasco would indicate), and DE Julius Peppers not the happiest camper after an uncomfortable offseason that concluded with him getting slapped with the unpopular "franchise player" tag. Cap limitations and the lack of a first-round pick also slowed the flow of reinforcements in Charlotte. We haven't seen a prohibitive price on the 81/2 "under" in the marketplace, either, so we're "bearish" on the Panthers.
Cincinnati Bengals (Under 6 1/2)...The Bengals are a pick du jour by many to emerge in the AFC North, but we're not so sure. Counting on QB Carson Palmer to make it through the season unscathed is a big risk (he's already hurt his ankle in preseason), and we've seen what's happened to the team in his absence in recent years. A rebuilt OL is of further concern, and top draft pick Andre Lewis' broken foot his first day of camp after a long holdout confirms the fact that these are still...the Bengals. Let's also not forget the very real possibility of more off-field distractions; Chad Ochocinco is also still in the fold. We're seeing some very tasty prices on the 61/2 "under" and even some acceptable ones in the even-money range on the 7 "under" as well.
Cleveland Browns (Over 6 1/2)...We're well aware how bad the Browns looked down the stretch last season, when the offense couldn't score a TD after Thanksgiving and HC Romeo Crennel paid with his job. Remember, however, that Cleveland was showing some signs of life as late as mid-November when Brady Quinn took over at QB, although once he and Derek Anderson were KO'd, the season went downhill fast. New HC Eric Mangini has his detractors, but he pushed the right buttons in his first season with the Jets in '06, has something of a luxury with essentially two number one QBs (Quinn & Anderson) on the roster, and imported several of his former Jets to help on the defensive end. We don't think it's necessary to look for those fat "over" prices at 7 wins, as some acceptable prices are still available at shops posting the 61/2.
Denver Broncos (Over 6 1/2)...No, we're hardly charter members of the Josh McDaniels fan club, and suspect he and the Broncos will eventually rue getting rid of QB Jay Cutler. A summer of further Bronco bashing (including the ongoing Brandon Marshall soap opera) has resulted in some improved Denver "over" prices, and upon closer inspection, the McDaniels offense did begin to function a bit better with Kyle Orton (until his finger injury August 30 vs. the Bears; he'll likely be ready for the Cincy opener) as the preseason progressed. If rookie RB Knowshon Moreno can recover from his own preseason ding, the offense shouldn't be helpless, and new d.c. Mike Nolan ought to improve a Bronco stop unit now re-aligned in a 3-4. Plus, let's not forget that there might be two worse teams in the AFC West (Oakland & K.C.), which could help pad the Bronco win total. We're seeing some prices in the +160 range on the "over" 61/2, which look too good to pass up.
Detroit Lions ("Over" 4 1/2)...Before locking us up, we'll admit this isn't our top recommendation, especially since we believe the Lions will be fortunate to win a game in the rough NFC North. But the team will be better coached under Jim Schwartz than it was under Rod Marinelli, Daunte Culpepper is a nice stop-gap if Matthew Stafford isn't ready at QB, and Schwartz (successful at Titans' d.c.) has apparently made some not-so-insignificant upgrades to the stop unit. We'd probably back off if you all you can find is an "over 5," but we've seen this bounce back scenario often enough (remember Miami LY?) to take our chances at "over" on 41/2.
Indianapolis Colts ("Under" 10)...When is a 12-4 mark deceptive? Perhaps when a team has to win its last nine games to get there, as the Colts did with some mirrors last season. Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning, but he is entering his 12th season, and we're not sure the support case is as strong as it has been. Also, we have a feeling Tony Dungy will be missed on the sidelines; Jim Caldwell is inheriting a team in decline, not on the ascent. Some nice "+" prices on the 10 "under" are widely available.
Miami Dolphins ("Over" 7)...We've seen the "over" prices get a bit steep, but not yet prohibitive, on Miami, so we still believe the Dolphins are a "go" for 2009. Admittedly Miami appears a prime candidate to become the latest surprise team to regress the following season, but the defense is solid, and if he stays healthy, QB Chad Pennington (a great preseaon pickup last summer) provides the sort of cool leadership that HC Tony Sparano covets. The Dolphins don't have to win another 11 games or return to the postseason to clear this modest win total, and we suspect there are some wins to be had vs. the Bills and Jets in the AFC East.
New Orleans Saints ("Over" 9)...Prices are getting a little rich for the Saints after their impressive preseason, but don't let that dissuade you at this manageable win total; it wouldn;t surprise us if New Orleans winds up as the NFC Super Bowl rep. The upgrades on the defense could be significant with respected d.c. Gregg Williams now in the fold, and Drew Brees and the rest of the offense are ready to roll once more. Keep in kind that the Saints lost six games by a combined total of 18 points last season, and a mere change in luck could add a few wins to last year's 8-8 record.
New York Giants ("Under 10")...Although the G-Men have been playoff regulars the past few years, we wonder if that was a glimpse into the future that we saw down the stretch last December, when the Giants didn't seem the same team after Plaxico Burress' suspension. No one appears ready to step into that gap created by Plaxico's departure, and the OL has endured an injury-marred preseason. As for Eli Manning, he won't be playing for a contract upgrade after being rewarded with the priciest deal in league history. Tom Coughlin might also miss shrewd d.c. Steve Spagnuolo, now the Rams' HC. Shop around for a good price, as we've seen some wild fluctuations on the "10 under" number.
New York Jets ("Under" 7)...Just because the Falcons (with Matt Ryan) and Ravens (with Joe Flacco) made it to the playoffs with rookie QBs doesn't mean the Jets are going to do the same with Mark Sanchez, who has a more worried look on his face than he did during his all-smiles days at USC. The Jets lose little if they have to go with Kellen Clemens at QB, but it's the questions at that key position that have us doubting the Jets. Maybe new HC Rex Ryan can push the right buttons, but we're not convinced, and some appealing "under" prices can be found.
Oakland Raiders ("Under" 5 1/2)...It didn't take long for the Raiders to look like, well, the Raiders in preseason. HC Tom Cable accused of attacking assistant Randy Hanson. First-round WR Darius Heyward-Bey not catching the ball. QB JaMarcus Russell remaining erratic. Rush defense still not stopping anyone. Even the weak AFC West might not provide enough wins to help the Raiders clear that 51/2 number. How soon before Al Davis is looking for yet another coach? Fair prices on the "under" are still available.
Washington Redskins ("Under" 8)...We suspect the collapse at the end of last season, when the Skins fell from 6-2 to 8-8 in the last half of the year, might be indicative of what's to come in '08. QB Jason Campbell was hardly given a vote of confidence by management in the offseason, and we're not sure Dan Snyder's latest big-money FA addition, DT Albert Haynesworth, was the best use of all that loot with other spots crying out for upgrades along the roster. The Bill Cowher rumors will start in D.C. as soon as it looks like Jim Zorn won't be leading the team to the postseason. We're having a hard time envisioning the Skins clearing .500 in the rugged NFC East.