2010 AFC Championship Game Jets vs. Colts Picks & Predictions
The New York Jets will once again find themselves playoff underdogs when they travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts at 3:00PM ET on Sunday.
Rookie Shonn Greene rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries as the Jets upset the Chargers 17-14 as a 9-point underdog in the Divisional Round last Sunday. New York’s defense held the Chargers to only 61 rushing yards and 14 points as the combined score went under the posted total of 42 points.
For the Colts, Peyton Manning completed 30-of-44 pass attempts for 246 yards and two touchdowns as Indianapolis beat Baltimore 20-3 as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. Reggie Wayne also hauled in eight passes for 63 yards and a touchdown as the combined score fell under the posted total of 44 points.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sports Interaction has made the Colts a 7.5-point favorite over the Jets in the AFC Championship Game. The over/under total opened at 41.5, but has since dropped to 39.5.
The Jets have had a remarkable run of late, winning the past two weeks as underdogs. They also beat the Colts in Week 16 of the regular season, although Indy pulled most of its starters in the second half of that game.
Getting points with a team that plays defense and that can run the ball as well as the Jets can always represents value. But if recent history is any indication, the Colts should dominate this matchup on Sunday.
Outside of their Week 16 loss this season, Manning and the Colts have never lost against a Rex Ryan-led defense. And even in that Week 16 loss, Manning was moving the ball up and down the field against Jets before being replaced in the second half. Manning knows this defense well and will look to exploit the matchup on Sunday.
The Jets can’t win in a shootout because they don’t have a passing game. Mark Sanchez has been fine the last two weekends because all he’s had to do is turn around and hand the ball to Greene and Thomas Jones. But what will happen if he has to start throwing the ball to win?
Our free pick prediction for the AFC Championship Game is the Colts –7.5. We also like the over 39.5 because we believe Sanchez will turn the ball over a couple times, which will lead to points for Indianapolis.
Our NFL Wildcard Free Pick for this matchup is: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS –7.5 and OVER 39.5.
Jets vs. Colts Current Odds
301 New York Jets +7.5 (+250 moneyline) Over 39.5
302 Indianapolis Colts –7.5 (-310 moneyline) Under 39.5
AFC Championship Game Trends
All games in this series since 1992
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-11 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-8 straight up against NY JETS since 1992
12 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
All games played at INDIANAPOLIS since 1992
NY JETS is 6-5 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS since 1992
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-4 straight up against NY JETS since 1992
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games played at INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
AFC Championship Game Injuries
NY JETS
[DT] 10/20/2009 - Kris Jenkins IR ( Knee )
[RB] 10/26/2009 - Leon Washington IR ( Ankle )
[LB] 12/10/2009 - Larry Izzo IR ( Neck )
[DL] 01/19/2010 - Shaun Ellis probable Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Hand )
[FB] 01/19/2010 - Tony Richardson "?" Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Ribs )
[S) 01/19/2010 - Jim Leonhard "?" Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Head )
INDIANAPOLIS
[WR] 12/24/2009 - Anthony Gonzalez IR ( Knee )
[CB] 11/05/2009 - Marlin Jackson IR ( Knee )
[LB] 11/04/2009 - Tyjuan Hagler IR ( Bicep )
[SS] 11/08/2009 - Bob Sanders IR ( Elbow )
[OT] 11/22/2009 - Dan Federkeil IR ( Concussion )
[QB] 12/09/2009 - Jim Sorgi IR ( Shoulder )
[PK] 01/08/2010 - Adam Vinatieri is downgraded to expected to miss the playoffs ( Knee )
[DB] 01/18/2010 - Antoine Bethea injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Back )
[DE] 01/18/2010 - Ervin Baldwin "?" Sunday vs. NY Jets ( Groin )