2010 NFC Championship Game Vikings vs. Saints Picks & Predictions
The No. 1 seeded New Orleans Saints will host the No. 2 seeded Minnesota Vikings at 6:40PM ET on Sunday in the 2010 NFC Championship Game.
The Vikings crushed the Cowboys 34-3 in the Divisional Round as a 3-point favorite, while the combined score fell under the posted total of 45 points. Brett Favre threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns, while Sidney Rice caught six passes for 141 yards with three scores in the win.
The Saints routed the Cardinals 45-14 in the Divisional Round as a 7-point favorite, while the combined score went over the posted total of 57 points. Drew Brees threw three touchdown passes to lead the Saints to victory, while Reggie Bush scored twice, once on a run and once on an 83-yard punt return.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Brobury Sports.com have made the Saints 4-point favorites over the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 53 points.
While studying the line movement for this matchup, it’s interesting to note that this game opened at Saints –4.5 and then immediately dropped down to 4. At some sports books, the line has even dropped down to 3.5 and 3.
The public doesn’t usually bet the early action, which likely means that the line movement was because of sharp bettors. And since the public has taken a liking to the Saints and their high-powered offense, we feel confident that sharp money moved the line and not public money.
Our free pick prediction for this game is the Vikings +4. Minnesota is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games when playing the Saints and 4-2 ATS in its last six games when playing on the road against New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Saints are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games and just 2-4 ATS in their last six games at home.
The Saints were able to move the ball at ease last week because they had two weeks to prepare for the Cardinals, who also don’t have a steady pass-rush. When Brees is able to stand in the pocket and survey the entire field, he’s going to burn a defense just like he did to Arizona last Saturday.
However, the Saints’ loss to the Cowboys in Week 15 (their first loss of the season) was a telling sign that if a team can drum up a pass rush, Brees and the NO offense isn’t as effectively. Minnesota, which features defensive end Jared Allen, can get after the quarterback and we think that will be the key to Sunday’s title game tilt. We also don’t believe that the Saints’ defense, which has been inconsistent for much of the season, will play as well as it did last week.
We lean towards the over in this matchup, which has covered in four of Minnesota’s last six games when playing on the road against New Orleans. But our “pony” so to speak, is the Vikings +4.
Our NFC Championship Game Free Pick for this matchup is: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +4 and OVER 53.
Vikings at Saints Current Odds
303 Minnesota Vikings +4 Over 53
304 New Orleans Saints –4 Under 53
NFC Championship Game Trends
All games in this series since 1992
MINNESOTA is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992
MINNESOTA is 8-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1992
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
All games played at NEW ORLEANS since 1992
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1992
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games played at NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFC Championship Game Injuries
MINNESOTA
[LB] 12/07/2009 - E.J. Henderson IR ( Leg )
[LB] 01/17/2010 - Erin Henderson probable Sunday vs. New Orleans ( Suspension Served )
[DE] 01/17/2010 - Ray Edwards injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. New Orleans ( Knee )
NEW ORLEANS
- 09/29/2009 - Jammal Brown IR ( Hip )
[TE] 09/05/2009 - Billy Miller IR ( Achilles )
[CB] 08/16/2009 - Reggie Jones IR ( Undisclosed )
[LB] 08/16/2009 - Mark Simoneau IR ( Tricep )
[FS] 09/05/2009 - Chip Vaughn IR ( Knee )
[FB] 09/05/2009 - Olaniyi Sobomehin IR ( Undisclosed )
[FB] 10/29/2009 - Heath Evans IR ( Leg )
[WR] 10/16/2009 - Rod Harper IR ( Knee )
[DT] 11/08/2009 - Kendrick Clancy IR ( Knee )
[CB] 11/28/2009 - Leigh Torrence IR ( Shoulder )
[LB] 12/09/2009 - Jo-Lonn Dunbar IR ( Hamstring )
[FB] 12/22/2009 - Marcus Mailei IR ( Hamstring )
[DE] 01/05/2010 - Charles Grant IR ( Tricep )
[DT] 01/15/2010 - Rodney Leisle IR ( Knee )
[TE] 01/17/2010 - Jeremy Shockey probable Sunday vs. ( Knee )