2010 NFL Schedule Winners
By: Joe Nelson
Most NFL fans are much more excited about the upcoming NFL draft than the release of the 2010 NFL schedule this week but in reality the schedule is much more likely to dictate the results for next season compared with the immediate impact of players added in the draft. Certainly there will be standout rookies that contribute right away but a bad schedule can quickly turn a playoff caliber team into a sub-.500 squad and a favorable schedule can turn a losing team into a division champion.
Every year there are some surprise division winners and playoff teams that rise from the bottom of the standings. Last year was no exception as the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints greatly benefited from a fourth place schedule after finishing 8-8 for last place in what was a very tough NFC South in 2008. Green Bay and Dallas both used favorable third place schedules to reach the playoffs last season as well and a couple of teams that won divisions in 2008 tumbled in the standings last season with much tougher slates, notably Carolina, Pittsburgh, Miami, and Tennessee.
This year there are several candidates to move up or down solely based on the schedules that have just been released. It is impossible to predict at this juncture the exact make-up of the standings as so many things will change between now and the opening week but the schedule plays a huge role for every team. Here are three teams that should see an improvement in terms of win/loss record with a favorable 2010 schedule.
Washington Redskins: The Redskins always have had talent in the Daniel Snyder era but the coaching hires have been questionable with Jim Zorn being the latest misfire. Joe Gibbs certainly knows how to coach in the NFL but he had been away from the game for too long, and the Steve Spurrier experiment simply did not work. In Mike Shanahan the Redskins now have a proven winner that can turn Washington around quickly and the schedule should also give the Redskins an advantage. By adding veteran QB Donovan McNabb Washington should be able to improve within the division and avoid some of the problems that often take place in transition years.
Washington was 8-8 in 2008 but fell to 4-12 in 2009. There were many close losses last year as the Redskins featured a point-differential of just -70 points. 70 is a big number but consider that the other fourth place teams in the NFC had differentials of -261, -232, and -156. Washington went 0-6 in the division last season and 1-7 in road games, records that are very likely to improve in 2010. Washington can take advantage of that fourth place schedule with a greatly improved season, making Washington a serious playoff contender.
The NFC East draws the NFC North and the AFC South which is a difficult draw but Washington will have by far the best scheduling scenarios of any team in its division. Washington plays the best teams from those two divisions at home, playing Minnesota and Green Bay at home from the NFC North and Houston and Indianapolis at home from the AFC South. With the fourth place schedule Washington also gets out of division games against St. Louis and Tampa Bay, two teams that combined to win just four games last year.
Washington also has a centrally timed bye week in week 9 and the new coaching staff and QB will get to ease into the season with the first two games at home followed by the first road game being a less intimidating affair in St. Louis. Washington will not play a west coast game all season long and will only play three games outside of the Eastern Time zone. There are difficult games on the schedule for Washington and as a whole the NFC East will have a tough scheduling draw. The Redskins should be in position to benefit from a more favorable schedule than their conference foes however and in what should be a very tight division race that could be enough of an edge to reach the playoffs.
San Diego Chargers: After going 13-3 in 2009 the San Diego Chargers do not need any favors but the 2010 schedule should allow for another strong season. San Diego's issues have been in the postseason as this has been a great regular season team in recent years and the Chargers will again be the overwhelming favorites in the AFC West. There are a few big names gone from the roster in San Diego but this still looks like a viable regular season team that will be in the mix for one of the better records in the AFC with this schedule.
The Chargers draw a first place schedule but this season that may not be a bad thing. Since the AFC West is playing the AFC South teams the Chargers were going to have to play the Colts anyway and facing New England instead of the up-and-coming New York Jets and facing Cincinnati instead of Baltimore or Pittsburgh might be preferable. The Chargers do have to play Indianapolis and Houston, arguably the two toughest teams in the AFC South on the road but that also means the home schedule will be very favorable all season long.
The AFC West gets to play the four NFC West teams and that was very clearly a weak division last season. Arizona and San Francisco were the top teams in 2009 from the NFC West and the Chargers will host those squads and the road trips to Seattle and St. Louis occur very early in the season which should be an advantage for San Diego as both of those teams are going through major transitions. Four of the first six games of the season are on the road for the Chargers but those four teams combined to go 15-49 last year so San Diego should be able to manage the early season travel.
San Diego also will not have to visit the east coast at any point this season with Indianapolis and Cincinnati being the furthest destinations. The final two games of the season look daunting at this point, playing at Cincinnati and at Denver late in the year, potentially in cold weather, but San Diego may have enough of a division lead that they will have the luxury of being able to rest key players in those games or at least not be in a situation where a playoff spot rests on the final two games of the season. San Diego also has a week 10 bye which should be nicely placed for a great finish to the year. All in all San Diego has to fell pretty good about the schedule ahead in 2010.
St. Louis Rams: While expecting the Rams to move to the playoffs would be a stretch, St. Louis does have a schedule that should allow for a substantial improvement in the win/loss record. After going 1-15 in 2009, improving should be a given but St. Louis has a schedule that could allow this team to make a more significant move and possibly even get somewhat close to approaching .500. The Rams have a lot of question marks at this point starting with the QB position and the upcoming draft but the schedule sets up for an encouraging season.
The Rams and the other NFC West teams will battle with the NFC South and the AFC West which will make for several winnable games on the schedule for St. Louis. Within the division the Rams should have opportunities as Seattle is going through a major transition and San Francisco and Arizona have not been consistent enough to project as clear front-runners. In the AFC West the Raiders, Chiefs, and Broncos, all appear to be teams that could struggle and while the NFC South is a quality division overall, Tampa Bay still looks like a losing team and there are serious question marks for Carolina entering this season.
The Rams should have a great chance to top the win total from last year in the first few weeks of the season. With a young team and likely young QB, early season momentum could be a key and a couple of wins could be coming early with this opening schedule. The Rams host Arizona in week one and then face four straight teams that had losing records in 2009. St. Louis will play at Oakland, host Washington, host Seattle, and play at Detroit. A home game with San Diego is next but then a road game to Tampa Bay and a home game with Carolina will complete the first half of the season. If the Rams are headed in the right direction they should be able to pick up multiple wins in that stretch of games.
The late season schedule is more challenging including three straight road games late in the year but St. Louis should not have to play a cold weather game all season long with the possible exception of a November game in Denver. The Rams also will play two road games in the dome environment that they play their home games in. A week 9 bye after that lighter starting schedule should be timed well to help the team regroup for a tougher second half as well. While a big jump from St. Louis is unlikely, this schedule could allow the Rams to separate itself from the group of teams considered the worst in the NFL.